Towards

The TOP

Dubai Airport On Spot

Towards

The TOP Dubai Airport On Spot Usually ACI (Airport Council

International ) hold each year a ranking

analysis for airports in world for air cargo,

the list ranked the top 30 airports in the

world by their air cargo activities.

One of the challenge stories is Dubai

Airport - DUBAI, AE(DXB) , in this article

we will trace the activities of Dubai airport

along the last 10 years (2002-2013), yes

the road is long and hard but Dubai

airports act actively that derive the air

cargo business many steps ahead in the

region and the world. While the

competition is high, they positioning

themself on top – Dubai airport is ranked

as 5th airport in world for 2013 by air

cargo.

Rank Analysis:

Referring to the data published by ACI for the period 2002 – 2013, two airports

dominated the top level i.e MEMPHIS TN, US(MEM) and HONG KONG, HK(HKG)

followed by SHANGHAI, CN(PVG) while three Airports straggling to secure the 4th

position i.e DUBAI, AE(DXB), INCHEON, KR(ICN), and ANCHORAGE AK, US*(ANC).

A shown in the Airport Ranking

Analysis Graph – the growth of

DXB ( red one ) is high and

steady with high accuracy of R2

(mathematical Model ) which gives

more realistic reasons to forecast.

In 2001 DUBAI, AE(DXB), involved in top 30 world ranked analysis, ranked as 25th , and consequently in 2002, ranked 21st ……and recently in 2013 ranked as 5th, as indicated in the graph by red

By : Mohammed S. Awadh

Consultant

numbers. While most of the remaining airports, their activities

values, varied from ranged 1,250,000 to 2,500,000

tonnes

Trend Analysis:

Based on 10 years annual data the trend of 2014 will be

2,481,716 tonnes for DUBAI, AE(DXB).

The mathematical model is power function – where the

coefficient of Determination is R2 = 0.98 - which fairly

good to forecast and report the trend value.

Two another airports are struggling to secure the 4th

position. i.e INCHEON, KR(ICN)( 4 ) and ANCHORAGE

AK, US*(ANC) ( 6 ), both also analyzed by Power

function model, the fitness was poor for ANCHORAGE

AK, US*(ANC) i.e (R2 = 0.38 ) , i.e the discrepancy of

the data will be high, the trend might be high or might be

low, we cannot ascertain. While INCHEON, KR(ICN)( 4 )

- R2 =0.86 which almost fair as R2 it is greater than 80 %.

But the high growth rate of DUBAI, AE(DXB) will

override these two airports in near future as shown in

figure.

The reason to evaluate the trend analysis for DUBAI,

AE(DXB), is to find a common rule to set forecasts based

Dubai Airports: Dubai Airports owns and manages the operation of both of Dubai’s airports – Dubai International (DXB) and Al Maktoum International at Dubai World Central (DWC). Dubai Airports was established as a commercial entity in April 2007, following organizational restructuring of the erstwhile Dubai Department of Civil Aviation (DCA). Dubai International comprises three terminals: Terminal 1 serves all airlines Terminal 2 serves scheduled, charter, and special flights (pilgrimage) Terminal 3 is dedicated for use by Emirates airline Dubai Airports has a 35,000 sqm cargo facility located at Dubai International. Dubai International has the capacity to handle 2.5 million tonnes of cargo per year Cargo volumes also reached record levels in 2013 with 2,435,567 tonnes of air freight passing through Dubai International during 2013, up 6.8 per cent compared to 2,279,624 tonnes recorded during 2012.

long range data base ( 10 years ) which will governed the patterned of short term

forecast on monthly bases (3 years data base )i.e the seasonality model.

The forecast value of DUBAI, AE(DXB) for 2014 is expected to be = 2,481,716 tonnes.

Seasonality of the Air Cargo for

Dubai Airport:

The data base is 36 months ( 3 years i.e 2011-2013) the constrains of the analysis are:

- R2 is greater than 80% - Signal Tracking is in the bond of –

4 and + 4 - Finally, the cumulative forecasting

figures on monthly bases for 2014 should equal = 2,481,716 tonnes.

Results :

The result of the analysis is fair R2 = 83.9 % while Signal tracking reporting out of the bond as we force to model to target the value of 2,481,716 tonnes for 2014 forecasting year. The seasonality is define clearly, the first two years are fairly fitted while 2013 year has more discrepancy, especially November and December. Two peak months cargo activities in year are July and October, while the low season period is define in the month of February.

In 2014, DUBAI, AE(DXB) will move to higher ranked that, is indicated by high growth

steady rate, as the other next neighborhood (INCHEON, KR(ICN) and ANCHORAGE

AK, US*(ANC) are almost stable ( flat ) but with high

fluctuation, the picture is clear for DUBAI, AE(DXB),

to almost capture the 4TH position in 2014.

References:

http://www.aci.aero/Data-Centre/Annual-Traffic-

Data/Cargo/2010-final

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_airpor

ts_by_cargo_traffic

http://www.dubaiairport.com/en/media-centre/facts-

figures/pages/factsheets-reports-statistics.aspx?id=9