The Science behind Viral marketing

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The Science behind Viral Marketing is a look at the key factors that drive growth in viral marketing. (Hint, the most important factor is not the one everyone expects.) It also looks at what is needed to get virality to work, and how to create and optimize viral marketing campaigns or viral products. One part of the presntation shows the key formulae behind viral marketing. Suitable for marketers or for product designers.

Text of The Science behind Viral marketing

  • The Science behindViral Marketing
    Lessons Learned
  • Explosive growth!
    YouTube
    Facebook
    Zynga
    Groupon
    Twitter
    Gilt Groupe
    All have set records for growth rates
    The key is Virality
  • The Power of Viral Marketing
    When it works it is Free!!
    Far more effective than paid promotions and advertising campaigns
    If done well can be self-sustaining + growth
    Unfortunately rarely achieved!
  • The Best Business Model
    Virally acquired customers are free
    Monetization(LTV)
    Cost ofCustomerAcquisition(CoCA)
  • Topics
    The Science behind Viral Marketing
    How to do Viral Marketing
    Optimizing for Virality
    Making this work for your business
    Examples
  • Where my experiences come from
    Tabblo
    Photosharing site
    Founded by Antonio Rodriguez, 2005
    Acquired by HP within 18 months
    Great investment return
    All credit is owed to Antonio Rodriguez
  • The Viral Loop
  • The Math behind Virality
    Key variables:
    Custs(0)The initial set of customers
    iThe number of invites sent out
    conv%The percentage of invites thatconvert into customers
  • The Viral Coefficient
    KThe Viral Coefficient
    K = no of invites x The conversion % (i x conv%)
    Turns out to be a very important variable. It equals the number of new customers that each customer is able to successfully invite.
  • An Example
    Custs(0)= 5
    i = 10
    conv% = 20%
    K= 2
  • The Formula
    New custs added in this cycle =
    New custs added in the previous cycle x K
    Assumes that customers only send out invites once, and not continuously in every later cycle
    To calculate the number of customers at any particular cycle (c):
    Custs(c) = Custs(c-1) + NewCusts(c)
  • Sensitivity to K
    See Spreadsheet model
  • Sensitivity to K
  • What we learned
    Viral Coefficient must be > 1
    to have viral growth
    Viral Growth is a compounding phenomenon
    Increasing the Viral Coefficient has a big impact on the rate of growth
  • YouTube versus Tabblo
    Both started around the same time
    YouTubes growth massively outstripped Tabblo
    What was happening here?
  • Tabblos Viral Loop
    User discovered Tabblo
    Wait till they take some photos
    Upload
    Share (i.e. invite others)
    Some portion of those think, this is great, I want to use this myself
    Wait till they take some photos
    Upload
    Etc.
  • YouTubes Viral Loop
    User discovers YouTube
    Sees some hilariously funny content
    Decides to share that with friends
    Friends see hilariously funny content
    Decide to share that with their friends
    The time to infect is far shorter!
  • A More Sophisticated Formula
    t = timect = cycle time
    Thanks to Stan Reissfor help with the forumula
  • What this tells us
    Raised to the Power of
    Multiplier
    Shortening the cycle time has a far bigger effect than changing Viral coefficient!
  • Some experiments
    See Spreadsheet model
  • Some Experiments
    Time - t
    No wonder YouTube was explosive!
  • Lesson Learned
    Reducing Viral Loop cycle time has by far and away the greatest effect on viral growth
  • How to do Viral Marketing
  • The Basics
    Figure out the Viral Hook
    What makes people want to share content?
    Content or Product/Service
    Initial Seeding
    Use communications networks to spread
    Email, Twitter, Facebook, Google+, etc.
    Refresh & Re-seed
  • Figure out the Viral Hook
    Something very compelling that the user wants to share
  • Viral Hook - What works:
    Something of Value:
    Applications
    Educational content
    Data
    Things of monetary value (Discounts and coupons)
    Something entertaining
    Humor
    Games
    News
    Inherently Viral Services
    Email, Skype, etc.
    Other?
  • Why do people share?
    A paper on that here:
    http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/documents/research/Virality.pdf
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/09/science/09tier.html (summary)
    Virality driven by physiological arousal
    High arousal, Postive (awe) most likely to be shared
    High arousal, Negative (anger or anxiety) less likely
    Low arousal, de-activating (sadness) unlikely
  • Content Types
    Blogs
    Videos
    eBooks
    Applications and Services
    Etc.
  • Using engineering for marketing
  • Inherently Viral Applications
    The most viral apps are those that are require sharing to work properly:
    HotMail
    Skype
    YouTube
    FaceBook
    Etc.
  • Initial Seeding
    The bigger your initial seeding the better
    Identify Influencers
    Reach / Influence
    Klout, SocMetrics and other services emerging to help
    Develop the right relationship
    Listen, Strategize, Engage, Measure
    Paid Seeding
    Paid search, Virool.com, etc.
  • Spread through Communications Networks
    Early days this was email
    Social Networks have turbo-charged sharing
    What you want:
    Low effort for the user doing the sharing
  • Refreshing and Re-Seeding
    Google Search (paid and organic)
    Creates new seeding
    New Blog posts
    Cause your existing readers to re-invite
    Farmville, etc.
    Continue to invite by regular posts to your wall
  • Lessons Learned Optimizing for Virality
  • Lessons Learned
    Apply my Unblock your Sales Funnel principles to the viral loop steps
  • GET INSIDE YOUR
    CUSTOMERS HEAD
    CONCERNS
    • Hate being sold to
    • Find it offensive to give name and email
    • Dont want to get spam sales emails
    • Worried that email address will be given to other marketers