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© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 1
Mick Etoh 12/19/2016
Leadership in the new digital age carved by
the fourth industrial revolution of IoT and AI
All night stars & Galaxy pictures are courtesy of Nori Yuasa except this sunset from Oakland(taken by Lynn Shi)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 2
Head of Innovation Management Dept. SVP, NTT DOCOMO
Guet Professor, Cyber Media Center, Osaka Univ.
Former CEO of NTT DOCOMO Ventures
CEO of Mirai Translate, Inc.
Research Supervisor of CREST “AI” Areaof Japan Science & Technology Agency
Mick Etoh’s Affiliation
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 4
Let’s define and identifyFourth Industrial Revolution.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
AI 1st Wave: Search and Reasoning 19561960s
AI 2nd Wave:Knowledge Representation 1980s-1990s
3rd Wave-Present:Machine Learning & Big Data 2010s
Cold Winter AraDeep Learning(2006)
Japanʼs 5the Generation Computer Project
IBM Watson in Jeopardy(2011)
Google AlphaGo(2016)
Computer Vision > Human Vision2015)
The Emergence of “AI”(1956)
Big Data(2010) Industrial Applications
6
AI(Artificial Intelligence)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 8http://events.technologyreview.com/video/watch/dileep-george-vicarious-ai-work/
Dileep George,2016
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
http://redwing-don.jugem.jp/?eid=855
Please attach the candle to the wall and turn on the light.
9
Symbol Grounding (Stevan Harnad,1990)
Can you image how those should work?
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
Medical Dignose
Cyber Security HR Management NL Agents10
Active LearningRobotics
Forseen AI Applications in Five Years
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24Hz9qjTDfwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24Hz9qjTDfw
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 13
Orbital Insight, Inc. Proprietary Information
BuildingHeight OilTankFarms AgAreasandYield TractHousing
Clouds&Haze Development AirplanesWater
ORBIRAL INSIGHTSCourtesy:
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 14Orbital Insight, Inc. Proprietary Information
NanjingPyongyang
Courtesy:
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 16
Blue River
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCPe9Sy0TFY
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
McKinsey Global Institute The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value beyond the Hype (June 2015)
Peomising?
21
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 23
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3387605-assessing-ges-software-opportunity?page=2
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 25
IoT = ICT + OT (Operational Technology)
Revolutional Impact: ICT+OT+AI
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 28
Hardware v.s. Software
��������
Which is your perception about “Cloud?”
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
Simple Web Service
Speech Agent(Cloud-native)
Programmable, Copyable and Commodifiable
29
Data Analytics Platform(On premise-hybrid)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 32
layers of the full stack
Server, Network, and Hosting Environment.Data ModelingBusiness LogicAPI layer / Action Layer / MVC
User InterfaceUser ExperienceUnderstanding what the customer and the business need.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 34
Empathysmart risk taking
Seeing the big picture.Hunger to achieve.
Entrepreneurs 0->1
MAXIMIZES STAFF UTILIZATION PURSUES THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Managers Elite 100->110
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 35
• Want to increase innovation?
• Lower the cost of failure.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
AWS Re:Invent 201436
Keywords•Institution No vs. Individual Yes.
•Speed•Make organization “nimble”•Experimental test w/ lowering the cost
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. Bloomberg BETA(VC)によるトレンド分析資料・2016向けより抜粋※Pitchbook調査に基づく 37
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
Capital SIze
Growth Stage
Incubators
Micro VC
Venture CapitalSuper Angel
$50K – $200Ke.g., Ron Conway
Keith Rabois Reid Hoffman
$1M – $10MAccel Partners
Benchmark Capital Sequoia Capital
$100K – $500K SoftTech、SV Angel
$10K – $100Ke.g.,:500 Startups Y Combinator Plug & Play
38
Startups and Financial Supporters
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
1B Valuation
Years from Birth
1 2 3 4 5 6
AirBnBSeries C(3Y8M)
EvernoteSeries D
$1B (6Y2M)
Series B
Series A Series A
Series A
Series B
Series C4Y7M
AirBnBDropbox
Evernote
Examples Y Combinator Graduates
39
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 46
– National Innovation Initiative(NII) (2004)
Innovation = invention x insight, leading to the creation of social and economic value
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 48
–Prof. Henry Chesbrough
Innovation = Invention + Business Model
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
Mark ZuckerbergJack Dorsey Elon Musk
Garrett Camp
Travis Lalanick
Drew Houston Jeff Lawson Marc Andreessen49
Empathy- and Greed-driven.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 50
TechnologyInsights
Leadership
BusinessInsights
What we need is ‘Unicorn’.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 51
Tech. Startup = Team with Research Expertise + Business Insight
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 52
Insights about the future → Monopoly position
Here are the seven questions Thiel writes “Every business must answer:"
1. Can you create breakthrough technology instead of incremental improvements?
2. Is now the right time to start your particular business?
3. Are you starting with a big share of a small market?
4. Do you have the right team?
5. Do you have a way to not just create but deliver your product?
6. Will your market position be defensible 10 and 20 years into the future?
7. Have you identified a unique opportunity that others don’t see?
Zero to One by Peter Thiel (Founder of PayPal)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
problemsidenFficaFon
businessoperaFon
conceptualizaFon
businessmodeldevelopment
53
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 54
https://www.tuzzit.com/public/media/canevas/canvas_lean.png
1 1
2
3
4
55
6
7
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 56
Let’s think about
your customer, and their pain points, and how you can help them.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 59www.bonkersworld.net/organizational-charts/
Organizational Charts (6/2011)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 60
For outer apperance in reality
AWS
EC2 RDS S3
VPC EMR DynamoDB
… … …
Micro Services
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 62https://labs.spotify.com/2014/03/27/spotify-engineering-culture-part-1/
Spotify’s History of Development Style
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 63
Companies led by Captains or Majors
Brigate Division Squad LeadersBeing Automous
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved.
Learn
Data
Nimble Investment Decision
Flexible Budget Raise
Advisors
Voice of Customers
build
Product
Idea
measure
64
Agile Development
Lean Startup Model
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 65
Importance of Team Building
• Most of predetermined plan may fail. Thus, nimble and well-focused team building must come first.
• The team must identify ROLES which make team well-focused and nimble.
• Big managers must trust the team, encourage them, and dedicate the power to them. DON’T be a control freak.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 67
50 : 5 : 1
US Annual financing to VC-backed companies(start-ups) = $57 and $72B in 2014 and 2015 while Japanese VC’s financing still remained about $1B(2015).
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 68
Global Comparison of VC Investments vs GDP by Country
・Looking at global investments by country, Japan ranks near the top. However, with a 0.02% ratio of investment to GDP, the difference is significant to that of the US, and low when compared globally to other developed countries ・Israel leads by a marked lead with a 0.18% ratio of GDP to total investments
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Research Study Regarding the Global Strategy of ICT Industry”, 2013 OECD Science Technology and Industry Score Board / Venture Capital Investment Trends
In Million of US$
Amount of VC investment
Amount of VC investment ratio to GDP
US France
UK Germany
Japan A
ustralia
Canada
Switzerland
Sweden
Israel
Belgium
South Korea
Norway
Holland
Spain
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Austria
Italia
Portugal
Czech Republic
Greek
Estonia
Luxembourg
Slovakia
Poland
Hungary
VC Investments by Country
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 69
Innovation Ecosystem in EU
International Journal of Technology Management vol. 66, num. 2/3
key individuals are in blue, companies in red and financial firms in green.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 71
Startups in Tokyo has two options:
•Come to the Bay Area, or
•Stay in Tokyo but focus the unique product.
No.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 72
Market VCEcosystem
Talent
Source:2016 Silicon Valley Index
Interlock of investment, talent, and market creates an unsurmountable barrier for others.
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 73https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/increasingly-crowded-unicorn-club/
The Crowded Unicorn($1B+) Club (as of August, 2016)
171
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 74Source: SparkLabs Global Ventures
1. Funding & Exits2. Engineering Talent3. Active Mentoring4. Tech Infrastructure5. Startup Culture6. Legal & Policy Infrastructure7. Economic Foundation8. Government Policy & Program
Start-up/VC Ecosystem
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 75
6. Boston7. LA
8. Beijing9. London10. Berlin
Source: SparkLabs Global Ventures
1. Silicon Valley
2. Stockholm
3. Tel Aviv
4. NY
5. Seoul
10 Hottest start-up Ecosystem
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 76
India China Japan Israel Bay AreaMarket size ○ ◎ × × ◎
Language ○ △ × △ ◎
Regulation/ Market fairness △ △ △ △ ○
Excellence or Uniqueness of
Talent○ ○ △ ○ ○
Life/Weather* × × △ △? ◎
Overall △ △ × △ ◎
*Don’t laugh. It DOES matter.
India and China receive large amounts of VC money due to their market size. However, there are only a few
companies in those countries that succeed globally.
Which countries are best for startups?Can Tokyo become Japan’s Silicon Valley?
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 77
Startup NationAdvantage
Strong relationship to Military and Defense Industry (AI, Communication, Security, Devices) Famous Startups
Waze, Viber, FiverrVC circumstances
20-30 VCs, 4000-5000 startups, 6B exit in 2015, Chinese-backed VCs(40%?)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 78
London as Gateway
AdvantageLondon as Gateway to EU and US,Fin Tech demandsFamous StartupsShazam, Powa, SkyscannerVC circumstances>1000 Fin Tech companies with GBP20B size revenue3200-5400 start ups in UKTech City in London
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 79
The Nordic countries
AdvantageSocial Demands by Low Carbon, Medical Care, Digital Government. Famous StartupsSpotify, SupercellVC circumstances
Stockholm Innovation & Growth(STING), Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems - VINNOVA
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 80
Tokyo & JapanAdvantage
Animation, Media Contents(e.g., PockemonGo), Gaming, Bio & DevicesFamous StartupsGumi, Mercari, Cyberdyne, EuglenaVC circumstancesRising CVC money into AI, IoT, Robotics, etc. $1B (2015) -> $1.6B (2016)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 81
Gaming/Net Media
Biotechnology, Device
Japanʼs Strength
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 83
Talent
Market VCEcosystem
Innovation Engine of Bay Area
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 84
Manufacturing
Market ProductionEcosystem
suggested by H.Tamura@Re:Public
Innovation Engine of China
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 86
Society
Citizen Experimentssuggested by H.Tamura@Re:Public
Innovation Engine of the Nordic Countries
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 88
Hungry
Drought Resilience
Innovation Engine of Israel(Joking Version)
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 89
Skill
Urban Infra-structure
QualityConsciousMarket
Innovation Engine of Tokyo
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 92• http://www.scootman.bike/
• https://39meister.jp/selection/selection005/
Let’s take your time to consider your coutory’sinnovation engines.
Less spent on essentials, more for “luxuries” or “unique ones”
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 93
ChotoKool Fridgehttps://www.changemakers.com/health-on-the-ground/entries/safe-and-affordable-drinking-water-everyone-everywhere
water purifier
Frugal Innovations
Mobile Banking
© 2016 NTT DOCOMO, INC. All rights reserved. 95
Take Aways
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution = ICT+OT+AI • Startups: Innovation Driver • Innovations = Invention + Business Model • Successful Startups = Tech Insights +
Business Insights + Leadership • Autonomous Organization • Unique Innovation Engines in Each Region
All night stars & Galaxy pictures are courtesy to Nori Yuasa