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Dr Jennifer Hunt, U.S Department of Labor's Chief Economist reports on the Labor market situation for February 2014.
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DRAFT
11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1
The Labor Market Situation in February
―March 10, 2014
―Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief EconomistU.S. Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist
DRAFT
22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2
Payroll survey: stronger than expected
1-month change, in thousands• February 2014
162• January 2014
145• December 2013
8612-month change, in thousands
• January 2013 to 2014:
2,190• Average:
183
DRAFT
33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3
But the longer trend still shows steady growth
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44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4
Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
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55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5
Employment growth by super-sector this month
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66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6
Employment growth by super-sector over the year
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77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7
Unemployment ticked back up…
January 2014 6.7%
January 2014 6.6%
December 20136.7%
February 2013: 7.7%
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88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8
…employment rate was flat
February 2014:58.8%
January 2014: 58.8%
December 2013:58.6%
February 2013: 58.6%
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99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9
LFP has been essentially flat since October
February 2014:63.0%
January 2014: 63.0%
December 2013:62.8%
February 2013: 63.5%
DRAFT
1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10
Not in Labor Force-94,000
Not in Labor Force84,856,000
Employed+42,000
Unemployed+223,000
More unemployed got jobs than dropped out
Employed139,093,000
Unemployed5,895,000
2,02
8,00
0 4,078,000
2,19
5,00
0 3,882,000
2,145,000
2,524,000
other 12,000 other 281,000
other 96,000
DRAFT
1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11
Long-term unemployment rate ticked back up, but remains highest since 1983
February 2014:2.5%
January 2014: 2.3%
December 2013:2.5%
February 2013: 3.0%
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1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12
Summary of month
Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth– Doesn’t do anything to employment rate
Rise in long-term unemployed – Note: in recovery, expect short-term unemployed to get jobs first– Those short term that don’t, become long-term– But sign of change not consistent across duration, think random fluctuation
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1313Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist13
Let’s talk about the weather!
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1414Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist14
Let’s talk about the weather!
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1515Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist15
Sectors we have been following + weather
Construction – Dec: -22,000; Jan: +48,000; Feb: +15,000– All adjustment happened in December? (Earlier start to seasonal layoffs)
Found most of the accountants– Dec: -32,000; Jan: +5000; Feb: +16,000
Motion pictures continued volatile
Retail – Dec: +63,000; Jan: -13,000; Feb: -4000– Weather? Bounce-back from unusually high December?
Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather; retail unclear
For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs
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1616Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist16
Weather and trend conclusions
Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather
Retail unclear, possibly underlying slowing
For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs
My guess: back to the steady but insufficient growth of pre-shutdown– Especially given downward revisions to GDP 4th Quarter
DRAFT
1717Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist17
Thank you!
DRAFT
1818Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist18
Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
DRAFT
1919Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist19
Construction employment shrugged off weather(Perhaps seasonal layoffs simply occurred earlier than usual)
1-month change, in thousands• February 2014
15• January 2014
50• December 2013
-2012-month change, in thousands
• January 2013 to 2014:
152• Average:
13