The future of heavy haul rail - A new approach to the construction and maintenance of Africa’s heavy haul networks

www.railcorpstrat.com

THE FUTURE OF HEAVY HAUL RAIL: A NEW APPROACH

TO CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE OF AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS

Dr. Dave van der Meulen

Scope of Presentation

Orientation: Africa’s heavy haul networks

A frame of reference

African railway agendas

Conclusions


INTRODUCTION


1

AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS



Heavy haul railways are generally not networks except in mining areas to access dispersed ore bodies

Africa’s are generally no different

South Africa’s Coal Export Line does carry some 30% non-coal traffic

Heavy haul railways can be standalone systems without connection to other railway routes or networks

The Heavy Haul Domain

Map of Railways in Sub-Saharan Africa


Heavy Haul



2

A FRAME OF REFERENCE

Some Tables and Graphs Follow: Please note …

African railways that carry less than 2 million tons per year have been excluded

IHHA criteria: Heavy haul railways meet two of following … Regularly operate trains of at least 5000 tonnes gross mass

Haul at least 20 million gross tonnes per year over a line haul segment at least 150 km in length

Regularly operate equipment with axle loading 25 tonnes or more

The best available comparative data have been used

Order of magnitude differences are important, not minutiae



Some International Benchmarks—Heavy Haul and BRIC



In addition, China, India, and Russia carry substantial passenger traffic

Performance of African Railways > 2 million tonnes/year



A Reminder—the Harris Curve from 1977



Traffic Density by Country Compared on a Log10 Scale


Africa

Reference Group



Recognise the Presence of Confounding Factors

Some routes are single line, some routes are double line Different track gauges are present Some countries have more that one track gauge Nevertheless…

Traffic Density differences among countries span an order of magnitude or more

Are such large differences sustainable under long run global competition?


Some Endemic Issues

War damage, natural disasters, general neglect, lack of funds

Networks struggle to generate sufficient funds to maintain and renew infrastructure

Most railways operate to the alignment and/or standards to which they were originally constructed

Only lightweight and slow moving trains are accommodated

Lines that have been superseded by road developments, that have low traffic levels, rarely merit reconstruction

Historically little trade between most African countries, so case for more general links is unlikely to be strong

www.railcorpstrat.com 2009, Bullock, Off-track: Sub-Saharan African Railways, World Bank



3

AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS

The Scale of the Challenge—Africa is a huge continent!

Non-interoperability of colonial legacy railways is the major complication

Response to rail development in Africa is political and must come from highly placed Africans responsible for defining the new vision*

Is it possible to develop a coherent networking strategy?



*African Union document AU/EXP/RT/3(1) of 10-14 April 2006, p. 24

Linkages Among Stakeholders and Issues



Stakeholder- and Issue Inventory

Regional institutions CEMAC, COMESA, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD, NBI, SADC

Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program

Union of African Railways North, West, Central, East and Southern Sub-regions

Affiliations MRTC, SARA, UAR

Track gauges 950mm, 1000mm, 1055mm, 1067mm, 1435mm

All countries have overlapping memberships of institutional groupings

www.railcorpstrat.com Abbreviations are listed on the last two slides


Communication Linkages and Time to Exhaust the Agenda

Excluding Union of Arab Railways (already standard gauge) and Madagascar (a non-interoperable island) …

Number of communication linkages = 4_CEMAC x 12_COMESA x 3_EAC x 6_ECCAS x 12_ECOWAS x 7_IGAD x 5_NBI x 15_SADC x 29_SSATP x 2_AUR-N x 10_UAR-W x 4_UAR-C x 5_UAR-E x 8_UAR-S x 1_MRTC x 14_SARA x 1_950mm x 14_1000mm x 15_1067mm x 4_1435mm = 164 x 1015

Spending 1 minute on each linkage will exhaust the agenda after 312 billion years!

Beware the Drunkard’s Fallacy! www.railcorpstrat.com Abbreviations are listed on the last two slides


Issues that Compound Africa’s Rail Challenge

Political instability

Contagion from political instability

Onerous expectations or requirements, e.g. resource companies must beneficiate

Litigation against potential investors

Alternative mineral sources emerging on other continents

Chinese tentacles

And more …




Unintended Consequences

Note that modern investment in Africa’s railways has been confined to standalone systems— Heavy Haul and Urban Rail

Road transport has stepped up to deliver general transport networking requirements

Heavy Haul and Urban Rail are exposed to fewer stakeholder linkages and issues and can therefore exhaust the agenda and reach closure in a shorter time

Works against establishment of a network on which new mines can piggyback



4

CONCLUSIONS


Now that we have assessed the situation …

The crucial issue is not about doing the technology

We know how to do heavy haul—consultants, expats, IHHA proceedings, guidelines to best practice, etc.

Rather, it is about creating an environment conducive to funding, building and operating railways

If we want more than Heavy Haul and Urban Rail in Africa we will need to find a way to shorten the agenda

CONCLUSIONS



Compelling insight from original research

Abbreviations

CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

EAC East African Community

ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States

IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority for Government

NBI Nile Basin Initiative

SADC Southern African Development Community


Abbreviations

SSATP Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program

MRTC Maghreb Rail Transport Committee

SARA Southern African Railways Association


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The future of heavy haul rail - A new approach to the construction and maintenance of Africa’s heavy haul networks