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Technology Driven Innovation & Change A d a p t i n g t o c h a n g e ; m a k i n g i t h a p p e n ; i n t e g r a t i n g i t i n t o t h e c u l t u r e
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
In a simpledisconnected
world... ...we canaddress
problemsin isolation
...and simple solutions
mostly work
In a complexconnected
world...
...we haveto considerthe whole
...simple solutions
never work
AI
...modelling,simulation,decisionsupport
...BIGDATA
...everything online, andnetworked
...a livingorganism...
SIMPLE SYSTEMS
Within human grasp and abilities
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics work
Designed top down Always predictable Easy to specify Easy to design Easy to model Easy to realise Easy to control Easy to operate Do not evolve Do not adapt Unchanging Stable
Complicated SYSTEMS
Within human grasp
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics ‘mostly’ work
Difficult to understand Designed top down Difficult to specify Difficult to design Hard to model Hard to realise Hard to control Hard to operate Mostly predictable Do not evolve Generally adapt Capable of changing Stable
No top down design Impossible to specify Impossible to design Difficult to model Easy/Hard to realise E a s y / H a r d t o control Easy/Hard to operate Unpredictable Evolving/Adapting Always Changing Unstable/Stable Emergent behaviours
Complex SYSTEMS
Beyond human grasp and abilities
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics no longer works
No general laws
INNOVATION Is never easy
Creating a successful product, or invoking positive change, takes dedication, energy, tenacity, clear sightedness, leadership, a good team and connections + perfect timing and luck…
Improving an existing product, service, process, method, facility
Creating a new product,
service, process, method, facility
INNOVATION MODES Not to be mutually exclusive
Sometimes we get a continuing loop of improvement and new products
INNOVATION PROCESS
Product Trials
Commercial Roll Out
Social Commercial
Consequences
R&DProblems
& Needs
Process Practices Change
The Text Book Trajectory
INNOVATION ILLUSION
Progress Towards Market
Expended Positive Energy
Milestones
Actuality it is all Far More Chaotic
RISK looms Large
Markets Partners Investors Shareholders Vested Interests
Doing nothing feels safer
Individual reputation & reward at risk
Safety in what you know and understand
Incremental steps outgun giant leaps
Learning new things and making decisions is hard
Luck !!
OLD MIND SETS & STASIS Big organisations don’t like & resist change !
Doing nothing feels safer
Quickly supported bY A n e v e n d u m b e r e x c u s e !
There is no proven
Market
Doing nothing feels safer
the dumbest excuse Fo r d o i n g n o t h i n g a t a l l e v e r !
There is no proven
Business Plan
Doing nothing feels safer
there was never A proven market for anything !
Bicycle Electricity Telegraph Telephone Phonograph Automobile W i r e l e s s Television Computers Washing Machine Tumbler Dryer
Dish Washer BroadBand Computers
Mobiles Laptops Clouds Tablets Games
Apps AI
An obvious need perhaps!!
R&DDesign
Production
Delivery
Support
Sales
Front Back Office
Freedom and individualism Vital ingredients for the future by degree/applicability
IdeaR&D Design
Prototype Trials
Refinement
Marketing
Angel Friends & Family
Funding Round 1
Funding Round 2
Business Plan Legals
Intellectual Property
Luck !!
start up Country Freedom but a lack of resources
ALL INNOVATION Is complex In a highly connected world outcomes are uncertain
Change is no longer a slow or disconnected Innovation is continually accelerating Perfection is the enemy of innovation Unintended consequences are the norm Causality is no longer always obvious Evolution often outguns design Sustainability is prime factor Open is also a key element
“The need to share trumps the need to know”
old business thinking Obvious edicts and maxims often dangerous
Minimise outgoing and maximise profit Go for the low hanging fruit Focus on the prime sellers Minimise the product set Stick to the knitting Optimise everything Downsize/Rightsize Cut the slack
“Rapid adaptability improves longevity”
silicon valley model A unique manifestation of a change process
An impossible to replicate Eco-System that evolved over a >100 year period
The Death Star of innovation and start up community for the EUAccess to funding $Bns
A full support community: Commercial, Education, Legal Finance, Commercial, Talented Managers/Leaders
Self contained economy
silicon valley 2014
A greater hi-tech density and economy greater than any other locat ion on the planet
MINDSETPro-Risk
Self Belief Absurd Optimism
Global Domination
Failure is a positive qualification !!
so what of europe ? A bigger population and market than USA
Huge Amounts of Innovation Thriving Start Up Population Shortage of Good Managers Shortage of Good Leaders Poor investment Prospects Extremely Low Achievement
Mixed Political L - R Systems Success Often a Negative Low Risk Cultures Parochial Focus
Highly
Dispe
rsed
Ineffic
ient
Anti -
Wealth
Creati
on
Needs New
Generations To Fix ??
WHEre is europe ? Certainly not in the big league
Not one big (>$100Bn) internet company has emerged from the EU or the EU R&D investments !
Acquired by eBay in 2005 for $2.6Bn
Founded in 2003Janus Friis from DenmarkNiklas Zennström from SwedenSoftware by Estonians Ahti Heinla, Priit Kasesalu, and Jaan Tallinn[29]
The most common pattern:
and who is next ? It might just be SHAZAM Music…
Shazam at $1 Billion Valuation After InvestmentBy MARK SCOTT January 21, 2015 7:43 am The New York Times
LONDON — Shazam, a smartphone application that can identify songs, announced on Wednesday that it had raised $30 million in new funding round valueing the company at $1 Bn
The start-up, (founded in London) and has around 100 monthly million users worldwide, has been rumoured to be moving toward an IPO. It is expected to join other fast-growing tech companies that have tapped the public markets….
europe from the outside
Mostly seen as a negative force trying to contain the new, restricting freedoms, saving old industries and models, repelling the new American imperialism and appearing on the back foot with laws and legislation that willnot work in practice
This is not how our young
entrepreneurs think or act !
EU SLOW RACK Innovat ion Why aren’t all the €Bns invested reaping a huge RoI ?
Fast Track to Innovation Promoting close-to-market innovation
Unworkable demands: Projects require the involvement of between 3 and 5 participants from at least 3 different EU member states or associated countries
A pittance: Projects are 70% funded to a max value of €3 million per project.
Silly deadlines: Application to be submitted by 29 April 2015
laws, legal systems And governments
Always on the back foot, taken by surprise and acting retrospectively, trying to protect the old world to apply past thinking and
seldom users or or experienced
in the latest technologies, and wholly
reactive out of fear or media sensationalism
unworkable EU laws and misguided thinking
Geo Data Patent Law Copyright
Net Blocking Net Neutrality Porno Control
Data Protection P2P Constraints
Internet Privacy Internet Control
Digital Anti-Piracy Internet Censorship
Right to be Forgotten In Country Cloud Only
Data Protection Directive
old thinking
The laws, experiences and wisdoms of the past, old instincts, reserve and social norms seldom fit this new world of networking and sharing…
new thinking
Communicating openly and sharing is more powerful than control, constraint, privacy and unnecessary restriction…
Global networking trumps parochial thinking and local groups..
W A R
G A M I N G
A r t i f i c i a l
I n
t e l l i g e n c e Modellin
gCo
m
puter
M at e r i al
S c i en c e
Clouds
B I G
D A TA
BYOD
BMOB
DIY IT
Sensors
Robots
C y b e r
Security
some b ig GAMES IN TOWN ? Connected drivers of change acting in unison !
Nano
Bio
inverted Innovation Expertise and experience is on the move
Tanks to ToysIn The P a s t
TodayGames to Guns
OLD Management MindsETS Increasingly dangerous to companies and institutions
tight control
More about leadership and freedom than
Understanding technologyis no longer an option
a new model is required
Planet wide networking of people, groups, companies, education,training, abilities, facilities +++
The need to share trumps the need to know, patents, copyright, commercial secrecy….
Predicting the future Gartner Hype Cycle 2013 - All Happening !
Technology for sure - you can see and touch it in the R&D Labs worldwide - no big guesses
But there are the big surprises and many things we can’t see or understand !
A Very different view A small sample of the non- forecast tech
Multiple Clouds: Fixed, Mobile, Transient, Permanent, Closed, Open, Private, Public, Company Institutional, Gov, Personal National, Global, Local+++
Security: Global Cooperation + Auto-Immune Systems spanning every chip, device, card, shelf, rack, suit, floor, building+++
IoT: Mutates to Clouds of Things
NWI: Nets Without Infrastructure
A Very different view A non - singular future of technologies
Sensors: Combined nano - bio tech sensors superior to a dogs nose…
Farming Robots: Combined nano, bio, GPS, mechatronics, sensors, photonics, networks sans infrastructure, AI…
Artif ic ial intelligence A primary tool of discovery and understandingAnalytics: Veracity Medical Security Big Data Political Networks Economic Genomic Proteomic Diplomatic Complexity ++++
We are way past the point where humans can analyse complexity even on a small scale !
Design: Chips Devices Systems Networks Behaviours ++++
Knowledge: Veracity Linking Creation Curation Searching Selection ++++
15
10
5
0
Estimated information half-life for different fields of study
Economics
Physics
Medicine
Software Marine Biology
Astro-PhysicsN
umbe
r of
yea
rs a
fter
pub
licat
ion
The impact on society More technology & self sufficiency centric
Greater self determinism Less full time employment Far greater adaptability/mobility
Distributed: Education; Healthcare; Employment; Companies Employment: More Transitory; Demanding Adaptability Education: Continual; Hybrid on and off-line Training: On Demand - by engagement/project
Jobs
lost!
Typists Dockers
Milkman Blacksmith Secretaries
Drawing office Xerox operator
Elevator operator Computer operator
Telephone operator Comptometer operator
Financial report writers ++++
i n My l i fet ime
Jobs
to go!
Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services
Investment bankers Warehouse People Personal Assistant
Tech support Stock Trader Receptionist Forecasters Train driver
Researcher Journalist
Drivers Agents Pilots
i n your l i fet ime
Jobs
to be
enhanc
edFabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programmer
Complexity analysts Security Experts Entrepreneurs Technologists
Consultants Architects Detectives Designers Engineers Modellers Scientists Medics
i n your l i fet ime
i n your l i fet ime
Jobs
to com
e!
3/4D Designer Risk Profilers
Cyborg Engineer Protein Designer Crime Predictor
Digital Historian Information Caretaker Truth Engine Mediator Component Repurposer
Genome-Protein Activators
Material Programmer Recycling Designers Interface Designers Machine Mediators Wisdom Archivists Genome Designer Material Designer Wisdom Monitors Trouble Shooters Nano-Engineers Bio-Engineers