collaborating and sharing

why and how we teach foresight to public sector organizations

challenges of teaching foresight methods inside the public sector

key messages

methods and tools to teach

creative ways to message

crowd-sourcing solutions

concrete tools

Long-term, strategic decision making

Planning spending

Setting priorities

Resilience in coping with change

Socio-economic

Organizational

Legislative

Creating a Common Vocabulary

Teach, Demonstrate, Practice, Confirm

Engaging the participant

I see and I forget.

I hear and I remember.

I do and I understand.

Confucius

Dr Joseph Voros (adapted from Henchey, 1978)

Description & ExplanationIntelligencePolicy &Planning

What is.

What if?

What if?

Reality Space Decision SpaceInformation/Analysis Space

What islikely.

What islikely.

Policy

•Possible/Imaginable

•Plausible

•Probable/Predictable

•Past/Present

Policy, Planning, Intelligence, Foresight

© John Schmidt

Foresight

Intelligence/Research

• Emerging trends• Scenarios/what-ifs• Weak signals• Outliers, Black swans• Resiliency factors• Drivers & Signposts

• Current/Operational• Tactical forecast• Strategic forecast• Current trends• Statistical predictions• Monitoring/Alerts

Planning& Policy

DecisionsActions

Near Far

Range of interest

Requirements& Tasking

Outcomes:• Intended• Unintended

Teaching A Complex, Interactive System

The concept that we

(individuals, organizations, communities)

are not traveling toward one inevitable

destiny/destination

can use foresight tools and methods to

see plausible/futures and

can effect change that will affect the

outcome and choose our future

Using training opportunities to hold space

for

Engagement

Experiences

Exercise ‘strategy’ muscles

Teach

Demonstrate

Practice

Confirm

What to tell

How to use

Allow group and

individual practice

Validate with the

group

Introducing the concept of ‘alternative

futures’ using comic books as a teaching

tool

Hal Jordan, Air Force Pilot

"In brightest day, in blackest night,

No evil shall escape my sight.

Let those who worship evil's might

Beware my power--Green Lantern's light!"

Green Lantern Corps

Red Lantern Corps

Orange Lantern Corps

Sinestro Corps

Blue Lantern Corps

Indigo Tribe

Star Sapphire Corps

Black Lantern Corps

White Lantern Corps

Alpha Lantern Corps

Willpower

Rage

Greed/Avarice

Fear

Hope

Compassion

Love

Evil

Good

Enforcement