1. Take Hold of the Future Improve the State of the WorldDr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Presentation for World Economic Forum Fellows

2. ALLBIGTRENDSARERELATED 3. EU20,000Challenge 4wordphraseisbasis ofallleadership, innova:on,marke:ng, mo:va:onandisTHEkey tostrongcorporateimage 4. LifeistooShort to waste on things you do not believe in 5. Whocaresabout thenewstrategy? teamsandcustomersneedtofeelitmaFers 6. Whyshouldtheygrow? 7. Allleadership comesfrom VISIONofa beFerfuture 8. Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected? 9. 17 10. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles19 11. Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting 12. Agility requires Simplicity 13. WGP1980-2013(%,constantprices) 14. USGDP1980-2013 (%,constantprices) 15. 26 16. EUGDP1980-2013 (%,constantprices) 17. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 18. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 19. 2% inflation target likely to be discarded 20. 375bn $2.3trillionUS+$65bnpermonth 21. VietnamGDP1985-2011 22. $3.4trillion Reserves 23. Text 24. Digital Control 25. The future is aboutEMOTION 26. GreatcustomerexperiencesMysteryShopping 42 27. 80%lostinseconds 28. Fastanswer-knowmewell Fastsolu8on-100%reliable OutgoingcallsSolu8onLine 29. >40%WDPby2015 IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity 30. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 31. 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years 32. Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child 0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26% >65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7% 33. 75%ofallUSandUKwealthownedby thoseover65-mostlywomen 34. Can we stop ageing ? 35. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure and helps wrinkled skin. 36. Grow New Teeth Pigsteethgrowninsiderats Micegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum 37. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells 38. Monkeys on diet live longer After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay58 39. Slowornoageingisarealityinanimals Japanwomengain15minutesoflifeexpectancyeveryhour Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales No signs of getting old 40. Relationship Marketing lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor 41. 33%inUKdontwatchliveTV 42. 95%EUbandwidthsoonvideo 43. 1trillionpagesamonth 44. Would recommend you to a friend ? 45. "Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views. Telford UK, May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down. Paris April, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick. 46. Scale - Innovation SpeedIs your corporation large enough ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships 47. e-commercehits$1.5trillion2014 12%allUKretail 48. Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil 50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online 89% want digital information in store Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home 49. Over4000roadhauliersinEU1.3bnhomedeliverede-com itemsinUKayear(+12%pa) 50. Italy:58%increasein aggregatorsalesof policiesinrst6 monthsof2013v2012 51. UK Retail Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013 50% of all UK online sales are using mobile 52. Loca8on Marke8ng isnext BIGTHING 53. 1500% growth car insurance black boxesTelematics Scale 54. 2mbusinessesuse SQUARE inUS83 55. CUSTOMERCHOICE 200millionpaymentsglobally 56. Kenya-17mcustomers $9bnpa->33%GDP Tanzania9mpeople 35na8onlinksviaHomeSendHub 57. 1.7bnphone usersare unbanked86 58. GlobalRemiFances $550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers 150m immigrants globally Worlds poorest 48 nations = double FDI value 33% of Liberia economy $55bn remittances by mobile in 2016 59. PaypalMobile PayPal$141m-$4bn2009-11 60. BitcoinBubbleandBust?Secret and untraceable 61. Payments Doorway In UK alone.... Transactions >EU600 billion pa Credit card debt >EU60bn Average card interest rate 16% 2% commissions worth >EU12bn90 62. TelcoBanks Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 201020132015 63. 90%MicrosogR&DCLOUD 64. 5.5billioncyberaFacks 42%increase/year>160Gbpsindenialofservice 1000majoraFacks/hrinUK WorriesaboutUSPrism/securityservices 65. Zettabyte Exabyte Petabyte Terabytes= 1024 Exabytes = 1024 Petabytes = 1024 Terabytes = 1024 GigabytesBIG Data 66. Home Work Online Offline Sales Entertain Phone Mobile Chat Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etcUNIVERSAL VIEW of ONE CUSTOMER 67. Regulatory Swings eg Capital Adequacy / ROI Public pressure v Reality 68. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism 69. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years 70. BoomBust 71. 5coalplantsreplacewithgas=9000megawa5swind Coalpricesfall=morecoalburntinVietnamandChina57coalplantsclosedinUSin2012 72. 120,000 terawatts of ARIZONA sunlight /day QUEBECfrom 7,000 times total power useMOSCOWfromSAHARA 73. Solarcellgenera8onparity 74. Fallingsolarcellprices 75. 120,000 terawatts wind by 2050 40% EU power = of sunlight /day Surplus wind to total global to methane ? 7,000 times hydrogen - power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert 76. SmartPowerRegula8on10%Australianpowergenera:ononlyusedfor72hoursayear Energypricescansoarfrom$50/Mwhourto$10,000/Mwhour 77. GermanyPowerSurplus InJune2013 Electricitypricesbecamenega:ve -minusEU150/MWhr!! 78. Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid ProjectChina planning to power Moscow 79. Power + 80. DOING GOOD What would you like to be known for if you had the talent? Top of list: Doing good / being kind / great person Live today how you want to remember tomorrow 81. Beyond Compliance Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past unethical behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant. 82. TheonlycorporatevalueworthhavingOnly sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends 83. 10 million surveyed by GallupTeamsintophalfofEngagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be protable 84. Go further than you have to 85. Innova,on:Intel+ChandlerCity-US 1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant Pumped into sandstone acquifer Replaces 75% of water used by factory Good relationship with local government planners /image / morale 86. LessonfromNon-Prot Founda8ons Connectwithallthepassions peoplehaveandtheywillfollow youtotheendsoftheearth, promotewhatyoudowithpride, andmayevenbewillingtowork foryoufornexttonothing 87. EU20,000Challenge 4wordphraseisbasis ofallleadership, innova:on,marke:ng, mo:va:onandisTHEkey tostrongcorporateimage: 88. BuildingaBelerWorld 89. BuildingaBelerWorld Basis of all advertising Every marketing campaign Every mission statement All leadership All change management All government Every business activity Every human passion EU 20,000 if you can find a business exception to this universal rule 90. RESOURCES >500 videos of Keynoteshttp://www.youtube.com/pjvdixonGlobal Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com