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Market Intelligence doesn't have to be time or budget intensive... to draw strategic conclusions, some of the work can easily be done by yourself -or anyone in your team... the presentation provides some tips on how to do this.
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7 Myths about Market Intelligence -how to build valuable market insights quickly and cheaply as basis for
strategic decision taking-
frederic de meyer founder
institute for future insights
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
@fdmeyer
fdemeyer
instituteforfutureinsights
Aim of this presentation
Show how to perform market intelligence in an easy, impactful and cost-efficient way as a vital contribution to
strategic decisions at any level within a company…
…by debunking 7 myths around market intelligence
Myth #1: strategic market intelligence is complex
Hell no, not always !
Very often the bleeding obvious is omitted… bottom line thinking and simple cross-checks can do miracles !
Myth #2: strategic market intelligence is costly
Decision area
Not necessarily !
Dependent on the type of decision you need to make, strategic intelligence can be costless …although paying for additional information can prove crucial
A
Myth #3: data needs to be 100% accurate to make decisions based on them
No it doesn’t !
There is no such thing as 100% accurate data… furthermore, you shouldn’t mind if the data is 80%, 82.5% or 84.7332% accurate, just as long as you can make successful decisions based on them!
illusio
n / d
elusio
n
A
A
A
A
A, C
A, C, D
A, B, C, D
Strategic options: A, B, C, D, E
?
Myth #4: you need an external agency to gather strategic data
Not necessarily !
The internet is loaded with free data and market insights… a thorough and systematic search can do a great part of the job!
(free statistics)
(professional organizations –technology examples)
(free market insights)
Quickly assess quality and usefulness of online sources
Free sources for competitive assessments
www.epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Free sources to assess your business environment
Monitoring Economic Sentiment
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
GD
P C
han
ges
Eco
no
mic
Sen
tim
en
t
EU (27) Economic Sentiment vs. Real GDP changes (Volumes)
Economic Sentiment (at end of quarter, seasonally adj.)
GDP Quarterly y/y Growth (Market Price, seasonally adj.)
Source: Eurostat, chart built by Cisco MBI
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
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04
20
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20
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20
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09
20
10
Economic Sentiment Indicator, selected countries
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
UK
Source: Eurostat, chart built by Cisco MBI
- Correlations with revenue? Orders? - Short-term expectations of these countries/industries - How hard will business conditions be in next couple of months?
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
NorwayPortugal
Spain
Switzerland
UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
Re
al G
DP
gro
wth
20
10
WEF Country Competitiveness Index
SOURCE: WEF, IMF, chart by Cisco MBI
Segmenting countries based on freely available data
Myth #5: strategic intelligence = 200 slides per question
Don’t ask for them !
Ask for that single chart that exactly answers your question and helps you make that one decision… (but think about it thoroughly before you do)
JapanNorth America
South Am.Europe
CIS
MEA
Asia
China
Pas
t te
chn
olo
gy a
do
pti
on
Business environment
Geographic priotization intruduction new technology [X]
Bubble size: Ease of doing business
FavorableUnfavorable
High
Low
SAMPLE CHART, i4fi
Myth #6: strategic intelligence is unambiguous
Dig deeper!
If a market view leads to different conclusions, it means you haven’t drilled down to a sufficient level of detail…
Which market is most promising?
Myth #6: strategic intelligence is unambiguous
Which market is most promising? Not necessarily the biggest one…
Myth #7: interpreting market data is easy
Hell no, not always !
Simple conclusions often hide some inconvenient truths… the devil is in the detail !
Our addressable market is growing with 10%. So,
provided we keep the same market share, our turnover will grow with
10% as well
Even if we keep the same market share in each of our markets, our overall
share and turnover might decline
Sometimes interpreting market data can be counter-intuitive…
Year X
Market size Revenue Market Share
Segment A 60 36 60%
Segment B 15 3 20%
Segment C 10 2 20%
Segment D 10 2 20%
Segment E 5 1 20%
100 44 44%
Year X+1
Market growth Market Size
Revenue @
same market
share
2% 61,2 36,72
25% 18,75 3,75
25% 12,5 2,5
25% 12,5 2,5
50% 7,5 1,5
112,45 46,97
Market growth: 12,5%
Revenu growth: 6,8%
Market Share X+1: 41,8%
Even if you keep the same market share in
every market, your overall market share
might decline
Some key advise…
• Don’t try to reach 100% accuracy… 80% is fine, just as long as the conclusions are 100% successful;
• Don’t spend too much money, think about what you can do yourself, or through free sources;
• Don’t underestimate the amount of vital information you already have internally, try to gather it structurally;
• Combine different sources and views to get to new insights;
• Don’t over-complicate, few datapoints given in a new way can lead to the right results;
• Turn your Market & Business Intelligence needs into ‘critical business questions’;
• Share findings with partners, channels, employees, shareholders, …
website www.i4fi.com
blog www.fredericdemeyer.com
mail [email protected]
twitter @fdemeyer
for useful long-term planning tools: http://www.i4fi.com/useful_tools.html
discover our services
(freelance or project based)
• Competitive assessments; • Trend assessments; • Strategic positioning; • Investment priotization; • Market opportunity assessments
discover the book “Frederic offers a unique
insight of how global
changes translate into new
business opportunities. This
book is an essential tool for
any future-oriented manager
or entrepreneur and anyone
involved in innovation
strategies”
Philippe De Ridder, co-
founder, Board of
Innovation
Available on
www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: [email protected]
helping you anticipate the future…
A concrete example
Critical business question:
• In which countries do we invest the limited resources (headcount and budget) in order to maximize the success of the introduction of a new technology ?
Step 1: creating ‘Leading Indicators’ based on freely available data
Business Context Index Internal readiness Index Industry relevance Index
Economic size UC 3yr growth Retail (Retail IT vs Total IT, IDC)
Composit Leading Ind. (OECD) SAN 3yr growth Media (IPTV & Cable household penetration)
Economic Sentiment DMS Total Bookings size Finance (weight of Top10 banks per country)
Addressable Market Size DMS % Total Bookings Education (Internet in School ranking WEF)
e-Readiness (WEF) # DMS channels Government (presence of ICT in Gov offices)
ICT development index (WEF) DMS Bookings vs # Partners
Composit Indicator 1 Composit Indicator 2 Composit Indicator 3
Economy size: Composit
Leading Ind.
(OECD)
Economic
Sentiment:
TAM size: e-Readiness ICT
development
index
AVG
UKI UKI 2 4 11 1 4 7 4.8
Nordics Sweden 8 11 1 9 1 1 5.2
France France 3 3 3 3 11 11 5.7
Alpine Switzerland 11 2 (na) 7 5 5 6.0
Germany Germany 1 14 4 2 9 8 6.3
Italy Italy 4 5 5 4 12 10 6.7
Benelux Netherlands 6 12 12 6 3 3 7.0
Alpine Austria 10 7 6 12 6 9 8.3
MED Spain 5 8 7 5 13 13 8.5
Nordics Denmark 14 13 10 10 2 2 8.5
Nordics Norway 12 9 (na) 11 7 4 8.6
Nordics Finland 15 6 2 15 8 6 8.7
Benelux Belux 7 10 8 8 10 12 9.2
MED Greece 9 1 13 16 15 15 11.5
MED Portugal 13 15 9 14 14 14 13.2
(country ranking, lesser score = most favorable)
Step 2: create ‘segments’ with conclusions
Source: Cisco MBI Methodology
Ideal world
Seed
Harvest
Wait
Ideal World:
- Favorable business environment and DMS penetration;
- Focus on leveraging current success and ‘cross the chasm’;
Harvest:
- Difficult business environment but good DMS penetration;
- Focus on deepening current deals and customers;
Seed:
- Good business environment and prospects but low DMS penetration;
- Focus on new customers and prospects (cross the chasm);
Wait:
- Unfavorable business environment and poor DMS penetration;
- Focus on marketing and channels to ‘make market’
Step 3: Mapping countries in the segments
Source: Various
The Bubble Size is an indication of the amount of core DMS industries that are attractive in a specific country (see slide 8). As such, it can also be interpreted as how ‘labor intensive’ the coverage of this opportunity would be (bigger bubble = more resources or various skills needed).
Ideal World:
- UK, Germany & Italy
- UK and Germany would require more resources/ vertical skills;
Harvest:
- Denmark, Spain, Belgium, Greece
- Denmark and Belgium would require relatively more resources, Spain and Greece focus on limited # industries;
Seed:
- Sweden, France, Switzerland and Netherlands;
- More of a ‘Business Development’ function ?
Wait:
- Finland, Austria, Norway, Portugal
- Invest in Marketing efforts ?
