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STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PPB6024

ABDUL RAHEEM MOHAMAD YUSOF, PhD.

Based on Fred R.David’sStrategic Management: Concept and Cases

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CHAPTER 3: THE EXTERNAL ASSESSMENT

After studying and discussing this chapter, you should be able to do the following:1. Describe how to conduct an external strategic-management audit.2. Discuss 10 major external forces that affect organizations: economic, social, cultural, demographic,

environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological, and competitive.3. Describe key resources of external information, including the Internet.4. Discuss important forecasting tools used in strategic management.5. Discuss the importance of monitoring external trends and events.6. Explain how to develop an EFE Matrix.7. Explain how to develop a Competitive Profile Matrix.8. Discuss the importance of gathering competitive intelligence.9. Describe the trend toward cooperation among competitors.10. Discuss market commonality and resource similarity in relation to competitive analysis.

“Nothing focuses the mind better than the constant sight of a competitor who wants to wipe you off the map.” – Wayne Calloway

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The Strategic-Management Model

Develop Vision and Mission Statements Chapter 2

Perform External Audit

Chapter 3

Perform Internal Audit

Chapter 4

Establish Long-Term Objectives Chapter 5

Generate,Evaluate, and

Select StrategiesChapter 6

Implement Strategies –

Management Issues

Chapter 7

Implement Strategies – Marketing,

Finance, Accounting,

R&D, MIS IssuesChapter 8

Measure and

EvaluatePerformance

Chapter 9

Chapter 10: Business Ethics, Social Responsibility, and Environmental Sustainability

Chapter 11: Global/ International Issues

Strategy Formulation Strategy Implementation StrategyEvaluation

Source: Fred R.David, “How Companies Define Their Mission,” Long Range Planning 22, No. 3 (June 1988): 40

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MANAGEMENT IN ACTION: SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS

• Samsung is performing very well in the global recessionary environment. Based in Suwon, South Korea, the global mobile telecommunications company boosted its sales by 7 percent in 2009 while maintaining its 10 percent profit margin.

• Samsung now has 19 percent of the worldwide mobile telecommunications market, number 2 behind Nokia with 38 percent. Samsung is the top mobile brand in the United States, but the firm lags in two areas: high-end smart phones and ultra cheap models for developing countries. Samsung has only 3.5 percent of the smartphone world market, which is expected to grow 31 percent in 2010. Samsung has only 10 percent market share in India where ultracheap phones sell, compared to Nokia with 58 percent market share there.

• Samsung has recently opened new, low-cost factories in Brazil, China, India, and Vietnam. Samsung is a global market leader today in more than 60 products, including semiconductors, flas memory, hard drives, digital displays, plasma displays, tvs, dvd players, blu-ray players, home cinema systems, mobile phones, MP3 players, digital cameras, laptops, laser printers, and even refrigerators, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners.

• In early 2020, Samsung promoted 41-year old Lee Jae Yong, son of former chairman, to COO of South Korea’s largest industrial group and Asia’s largest maker of chips, flat-screens, and mobile phones. Lee’s ascent comes less than four months after Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest carmaker, promoted the chairman’s son.

• The international Monetary Fund cited the business model of family-run conglomerates, known as chaebols, and their debt-driven practices as part of the reason South Korea’s economy fell into financial crisis at the end of 1997.

• The promotion signaled a reversal of reforms and a return to the chaebol according to Kim Sang Jo, head of activist group Solidarity for Economic Reform, which opposes the involvement of companies founding families in management.

• Other commentators such as Kim Sun Woong, head of the Center for Good Corporate Governance, pointed out that by appointing Lee as COO, the company was trying to build up a good track record for him at a time when the firm was poised to do well financially.

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3.1 The Nature of an External Audit

• The purpose of an external audit is to develop a finite list of opportunities that could benefit a firm and threats that should be avoided.

• The external audit is not aimed at developing an exhaustive list of every possible factor that could influence the business; rather, it is aimed at identifying key variables that offer actionable responses.

• Firms should be able to respond either offensively or defensively to the factors by formulating strategies that take advantage of external opportunities or that minimize the impact of potential threats.

“Organizations pursue strategies that will disrupt the normal course of industry events and forge new industry conditions to the disadvantage of competitors.”

– Ian C. Macmillan

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3.1.1 Key External Forces

External forces can be divided into five broad categories:1. Economic forces2. Social, cultural, demographic, and natural environment forces3. Political, governmental, and legal forces4. Technological forces5. Competitive forces

Relationships Between Key External Forces and an Organization

Economic forces

Social, cultural, demographic, and natural environment forces

Political, governmental, and legal forces

Technological forces

Competitive forces

Competitors, Suppliers, Distributors, Creditors, Customers, Employees, Communities,

Managers, Stockholders, Labour Unions, Governments, Trade Associations, Special

Interest Groups, Products, Services, Markets, Natural Environment

AN ORGANIZATION OPPORTUNITIES

AND THREATS

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3.1.2 The Process of Performing an External Audit

The process of performing an external audit must involve as many managers and employees.• Opportunity to contribute ideas• Gain better understanding• Commitment from all members

Gather information

Assimilate and Evaluate information

• Economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological,

• From magazines, trade journals, internet, competitive intelligence, suppliers, distributors, salespersons, customers, competitors…

• Request managers to rank these factors….prioritized list.• Most important to least important Opportunity/Threat

Freund emphasized that these key external factors should be:1. Important to achieving long-term and annual objectives2. Measurable3. Applicable to all competing firms4. Hierarchical in the sense that some will pertain to the overall company and others will be more narrowly focused on

functional or divisional areas.

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3.2 The Industrial Organization (I/O) View

• The I/O approach to competitive advantage advocates that external (industry) factors are more important than internal factors in a firm achieving competitive advantage.

• Proponents of the I/O view, such as Micheal Porter, contend that organizational performance will be primarily determined by industry forces.

• Proter’s Five-Forces Model is an example of the I/O perspective

I/O theorists contend that firm performance is primarily based more on industry properties such as:1. Economics of scale2. Barriers to market entry3. Product differentiation4. The economy5. Level of competitiveness

Less on:1. Internal resources2. Capabilities3. Structure 4. operations

“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

– Charles Darwin

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3.3 Economic Forces

• Increasing numbers of two-income households is an economic trend.• Individuals place a premium on time.• Improved customer service, immediate availability, trouble-free operation of products, and dependable maintenance

and repair services are becoming more important.• People today are more willing than ever to pay for good service if it limits inconvenience.• Economic factors have a direct impact on the potential attractiveness of various strategies.

Key Economic Variables to be Monitored

• Shift to a service economy • Availability of credit• Level of disposable income• Propensity of people to spend• Interest rates• Inflation rates• Money market rates• Federal government budget deficits• Gross domestic product trend• Consumption patterns• Unemployment trends

• Worker productivity levels• Value of the dollar in world markets• Stock market trends• Foreign countries’ economic trends• Import/export factors• Demand shifts for different

categories of goods and services• Income differences by region and

consumer groups• Price fluctuations• Export of labour and capital

• Monetary policies• Fiscal policies• Tax rates• European Economic

Community (EEC) policies• Organization of Petroleum

Exporting Countries (OPEC) policies

• Coalitions of Lesser Developed Countries (LDC) policies

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Advantages and Disadvantages of a Weak Dollar for Domestic Firms

Advantages: 1. Leads to more exports2. Leads to lower imports3. Makes U.S. goods cheaper to foreign

consumers4. Combats deflation by pushing up prices of

imports5. Can contribute to rise in stock prices in short

run6. Stimulates worldwide economic recession7. Encourages foreign countries to lower interest

rates8. Raises the revenues and profits of firms that do

business outside the United States9. Stimulates worldwide economic expansion10. Forces foreign firms to raise prices11. Reduces the U.S. trade deficit12. Encourages firms to globalize13. Encourages foreigners to visit the United States

Disadvantages:1. Can lead to inflation2. Can cause rise in oil prices3. Can weaken U.S. government4. Makes it unattractive for Americans to travel globally5. Can contribute to fall in stock prices in long run

Expected GDP Growth in 2009 Among Countries in Asia:China/ India : 7-8 percent (High)Indonesia/ Thailand/ Philippines/ Taiwan/ Malaysia : 3-4 percent (Medium)South Korea/ Hong Kong/ Singapore : 1-2 percent (Low)

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3.4 Social, Cultural, Demographic, and Natural Environment Forces

• Social, cultural, demographic, and environmental changes have a major impact on virtually all products, services, markets, and customers.

• Social, cultural, demographic, and environmental trends are shaping the way we live, work, produce, and consume.• The population of the world surpassed 7.0 billion in 2010.

• Childbearing rates• Number of special-interest groups• Number of marriages• Number of divorces• Number of births• Number of deaths• Immigration and emigration rates• Social security programs• Life expectancy rates• Per capita income• Location of retailing, manufacturing,

and service businesses• Attitudes toward business• Lifestyles• Traffic congestion

• Inner-city environments• Average disposable income• Trust in government• Attitudes toward government• Attitudes toward work• Buying habits• Ethical concerns• Attitudes toward saving• Sex roles• Attitudes toward investing• Racial equality• Use of birth control• Average level of education• Government regulation• Attitudes toward retirement• Attitudes toward leisure time

• Attitudes toward product quality• Attitudes toward customer service• Pollution control/ air & water pollution• Attitudes toward foreign peoples• Energy conservation• Social programs• Number of churches• Number of church members• Social responsibility• Attitudes toward careers• Population changes by race, age, sex,

and level of affluence• Value place on leisure time• Recycling• Waste management• Ozone depletion…Endangered species

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3.5 Political, Governmental, and Legal Forces

• Federal, state, local, and foreign governments are major regulators, deregulators, subsidizers, employers, and customer of organizations.

• Political, governmental, and legal factors, therefore, can represent key opportunities or threats for small and large organizations.

• For industries and firms that depend heavily on government contracts or subsidies, political forecasts can be the most important part of an external audit. Changes in patent laws, antitrust legislation, tax rates, and lobbying activities can affect firms significantly.

• The increasing global interdependence among economies, markets, governments, and organizations makes it imperative that firms consider the possible impact of political variables on the formulation and implementation of competitive strategies.

• Government regulations or deregulations

• Changes in tax laws• Special tariffs• Political action committee• Voter participation rates• Number, severity, and location of

government protests• Number of patents• Changes in patent laws• Environmental protection laws• Level of defense expenditures• Legislation on equal employment• Level of government subsidies• Antitrust legislation• Sino-American relationships• Russian-American relationships• European-American relationships• African-American relationships• Import-Export regulations

• Government fiscal and monetary policy changes

• Political conditions in foreign countries

• Special local, state, and federal laws

• Lobbying activities• Size of government budgets• World oil, currency, and labour

markets• Location and severity of

terrorist activities• Local, state, and national

elections

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3.6 Technological Forces• Revolutionary technological changes and discoveries are having a dramatic impact on organization.• The Internet has changed the very nature of opportunities and threats by altering the life cycles of products, increasing

the speed of distribution, creating new products and services, erasing limitations of traditional geographic markets, and changing the historical trade-off between production standardization and flexibility.

• The internet is altering economics of scale, changing entry barriers, and redefining the relationship between industries and various suppliers, creditors, customers, and competitors.

• To effectively capitalize on e-commerce, a number of organizations are establishing two new positions in their firms: chief information officer (CIO) and chief technology officer (CTO).

• Technological forces represent major opportunities and threats that must be considered in formulating strategies. Technological advancements can dramatically affect organizations’ products, services, markets, suppliers, distributors, competitors, customers, manufacturing processes, marketing practices, and competitive position.

• Technological advancements can create new markets, result in proliferation of new and improved products, change the relative competitive cost positions in an industry, and render existing products and services obsolete.

• Technological changes can reduce or eliminate cost barriers between businesses, create shorter production runs, create shortages in technical skills, and result in changing values and expectations of employees, managers, and customers.

• Technological advancements can create new competitive advantages that are more powerful than existing advantages. No company or industry today is insulated against emerging technological development.

• In high-tech industries, identification and evaluation of key technological opportunities and threats can be the most important part of external strategic-management audit.

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• Not all sectors of the economy are affected equally by technological developments. The communications, electronics, aeronautics, and pharmaceutical industries are much more volatile than the textile, forestry, and metal industries.

Examples of the Impact of Wireless Technology

1. Airlines – Many airlines now offer wireless technology in flight.2. Automotive – Vehicles are becoming wireless.3. Banking – Visa sends text massage alerts after unusual transactions.4. Education – many secondary (and even college) students may use smart

phones for math because research shows this to be greatly helpful.5. Energy – Smart meter now provide power on demand in your home or

business.6. Health care – Patients use mobile devices to monitor their own health, such

as calories consumed.7. Hotels – Days In sends daily specials and coupons to hotel guests via text

messages.8. Market Research – Cell phone respondents provide more honest answers,

perhaps because they are away from eavesdropping ears.9. Politics – President Obama won the election partly by mobilizing Facebook

and MySpace users, revolutionizing political campaigns. Obama announced his vice presidential selection of Joe Biden by a text message.

10. Publishing – eBooks are increasingly available.

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3.7 Competitive Forces

• Collecting and evaluating information on competitors is essential for successful strategy formulation. • Identifying major competitors is not always easy because many firms have divisions that compete in different

industries. Many multidivisional firms do not provide sales and profit information on a divisional basis for competitive reasons.

• Privately held firms do not publish financial or marketing information.• Competition in virtually all industries can be described as intense and sometimes cutthroat.

SEVEN characteristics describe the most competitive companies:1. Market share matters; the 90th share point isn’t as important as the 91st, and

nothing is more dangerous than falling to 89.2. Understand and remember precisely what business you are in.3. Whether it’s broke or not, fix it – make it better; not just products, but the whole

company, if necessary.4. Innovate or evaporate; particularly in technology-driven businesses, nothing quite

recedes like success.5. Acquisition is essential to growth; the most successful purchases are in niches that

add technology or a related market.6. People make a difference; tired of hearing it? Too bad.7. There is no substitute for quality and no greater threat than failing to be cost-

competitive on a global basis.

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Key Questions About Competitors:1. What are the major competitors’ strengths?2. What are the major competitors’ weaknesses?3. What are the major competitors’ objectives and strategies?4. How will the major competitors most likely respond to current economic,

social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological, and competitive trends affecting our industry?

5. How vulnerable are the major competitors to our alternative company strategies?

6. How vulnerable are our alternative strategies to successful counterattack by our major competitors?

7. How are our products or services positioned relative to major competitors?8. To what extent are new firms entering and old firms leaving this industry?9. What key factors have resulted in our present competitive position in this

industry?10. How have the sales and profit rankings of major competitors in the

industry changed over recent years? Why have these rankings changed that way?

11. What is the nature of supplier and distributor relationships in this industry?12. To what extent could substitute products or services be a threat to

competitors in this industry?

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The Top U.S. Competitors in Two Different Industries

BEVERAGES 2008 Sales (in millions)

% Change from 2007

2008 Profits (in millions)

% Change from 2007

Coca-Cola $31,944 +11 $5,807 -3

Pepsi Bottling 13,796 +2 162 -70

Coca-Cola Enterprises 21,807 +4 (4,394) -718

Molson Coors Brewing 4774 -23 388 -22

COMPUTERS 2008 Sales (in millions)

% Change from 2007

2008 Profits (in millions)

% Change from 2007

Hewlett-Packard $118,364 +13 $8,329 +15

Sun Microsystems 13,880 0 403 -15

Dell 61,101 0 2,478 -16

Xerox 17,608 +2 230 -80

Apple 32,479 +35 4,834 +38

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3.7.1 Competitive Intelligence Programs

• What is competitive intelligence?• Competitive Intelligence (CI) as formally defined by the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP), is a

systematic and ethical process for gathering and analyzing information about the competitor’s activities and general business trends to further a business’s own goals.

• Good competitive intelligence in business, as in the military, is one of the keys to success.

• Facebook’s COO Owen Van Natta left the company to become CEO of MySpace (replace Chris DeWolfe, the CEO and cofounder of MySpace).

• Van Natta was previously Facebook’s COO, chief revenue officer, and vice president of operations.

• The MySpace appointment now pits CEO Van Natta against his old boss at Facebook, CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

• Facebook passed MySpace in visitors worldwide in 2008 and is closing in on leadership in the U.S. Both firms are fierce rivals in the Internet social-networking business.

Sources of CI:• Internet• Employees• Managers• Suppliers • Distributors• Customers• Consultants• Trade journal• Trade participants• Want ads• Newspaper articles• Government filings• Competitors

Unethical tactics such as bribery, wiretapping, and computer break-ins should never be used to obtain information.

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3.7.2 Market Commonality and Resource Similarity

• By definition, competitors are firms that offer similar products and services in the same market.

• Market can be geographic areas, products or segments.

• Researchers use the terms market commonality and resource similarity to study rivalry among competitors.

• Market commonality can be defined as the number and significance of markets that a firm competes in with rivals.

• Resource similarity is the extent to which the type and amount of a firm’s internal resources are comparable to a rival.

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3.8 Competitive Analysis: Porter’s Five-Forces Model

• Porter’s Five-Forces Model of competitive analysis is a widely used approach for developing strategies in many industries.

• Intensity of competition is highest in lower return industries. The collective impact of competitive forces is so brutal in some industries that the market is clearly “unattractive” from a profit-making standpoint.

• Rivalry among existing firms is severe, new rivals can enter the industry with relative ease, and both suppliers and customers can exercise considerable bargaining leverage.

The Five-Forces Model of Competition

Rivalry among competing firms

Potential development of substitute products

Bargaining power of consumers

Bargaining power of suppliers

Potential entry of new competitors

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The following three steps for using Porter’s Five-Forces Model can indicate whether competition in a given industry is such that the firm can make an acceptable profit:1. Identify key aspects or

elements of each competitive force that impact the firm.

2. Evaluate how strong and important each element is for the firm.

3. Decide whether the collective strength of the elements is worth the firm entering or staying in the industry.

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Intensity of Competition Among Firms in Different Industries (U.S)

Industry Year-End Profit Margin Year-End Return on Investment

2006 2008 2006 2008

Aerospace and Defense 6 8 6 8

Airlines 2 -13 2 -14

Apparel 5 9 8 34

Beverages 7 3 4 2

Chemicals 5 5 5 6

Commercial Banks 16 5 1.3 0.3

Computer Software 18 32 8 20

Electronics, Electrical Equipment 7 7 8 9

Energy 3 1 3 2

Food and Drug Stores 2 2 5 4

Food Consumer Products 5 7 6 7

Food Production 0 1 1 1

Food Services 4 7 7 11

Health Care: Pharmacy 3 3 9 7

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8.9 Sources of External Information

• A wealth of strategic information is available to organizations from both published and unpublished sources.• Unpublished sources : customer surveys, market research, speeches at professional and shareholders’ meetings,

television programs, interviews, and conversation with stakeholders.• Published information: periodicals, journals, reports, government documents, abstracts, books, directories,

newspapers, and manuals.

There are many excellent Web sites for gathering strategic information, but six that the Fred R.David uses routinely are listed below:1. http://marketwatch.multexinvestor.com2. http://moneycentral.msn.com3. http://finance.yahoo.com4. www.clearstation.com5. https://etrade.com/e/t/invest/markets6. www.hoovers.com

Standard & Poor’s (S&P’s) Industry Surveys:1. Current environment2. Industry trends3. How the industry operates4. Key industry ratios and statistics5. How to analyze a company6. Glossary of industry terms7. Additional industry information8. References9. Comparative company financial analysis

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3.10 Forecasting Tools and Techniques

• Forecast are educated assumptions about future trends and events.• Forecasting is a complex activity because of factors such as technological innovation, cultural changes, new products,

improved services, stronger competitors, shifts in government priorities, changing social values, unstable economic conditions, and unforeseen events.

• Managers often must rely on published forecasts to effectively identify key external opportunities and threats.

• Can we obtain information and then make educated assumptions (forecasts) to better guide our current decisions to achieve a more desirable future state of affairs?

• We should go into the future with our eyes and our minds open, rather than stumble into the future with our eyes closed.

• Sometimes organizations must develop their own projections. Most organizations forecast (project) their own revenues and profits annually.

• Organizations sometimes forecast market share or customer loyalty in local areas.• Forecasting tools:1. QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES2. QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES

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3.10.1 Making Assumptions

• Planning would be impossible without assumptions.• McConkey defines assumptions as the “best present estimates of the impact of major external factors, over which the

manager has little if any control, but which may exert a significant impact on performance or the ability to achieve desired results.”

• Wild guesses should never be made in formulating strategies, but reasonable assumptions based on available information must always be made.

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3.11 Industry Analysis: The External Factor Evaluation (EFE) Matrix

• An External Factor Evaluation (EFE) Matrix allows strategists to summarize and evaluate economic, social, cultural, demographic, environmental, political, governmental, legal, technological, and competitive information.

• The EFE Matrix can be developed in five steps:1. List key external factors as identified in the external audit process.2. Assign to each factor a weight that ranges from 0.0 (not important) to 1.0 (very important)3. Assign a rating between 1 and 4 to each key external factor to indicate how effectively the firm’s current strategies

respond to the factor, where 4 = the response is superior, 3 = the response is above average, 2 = the response is average, and 1 = the response is poor.

4. Multiply each factor’s weight by its rating to determine a weighted score.5. Sum the weighted scores for each variable to determine the total weighted score for the organization.

• Regardless of the number of key opportunities and threats included in the EFE Matrix, the highest possible total weighted score for an organization is 4.0 and the lowest possible total weighted score is 1.0. the average total weighted score is 2.5.

• A total weighted score of 4.0 indicates that an organization is responding in an outstanding way to existing opportunities and threats in its industry.

• A total score of 1.0 indicates that the firm’s strategies are not capitalizing on opportunities or avoiding external threats.

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EFE Matrix for a Local Ten-Theatre Cinema Complex

Key External Factors Weight Rating Weighted Score

Opportunities 1 Rowan County is growing 8% annually in population 0.05 3 0.15

2 TDB University is expanding 6% annually 0.08 4 0.32

3 Major competitor across town recently ceased operations 0.08 3 0.24

4 Demand for going to cinema growing 10% annually 0.07 2 0.14

5 Two new neighborhoods being developed within 3 miles 0.09 1 0.09

6 Disposable income among citizens grew 5% in prior year 0.06 3 0.18

7 Unemployment rate in county declined to 3.1% 0.03 2 0.06

Threats 8 Trend toward healthy eating eroding concession sales 0.12 4 0.48

9 Demand for online movies and DVDs growing 10% annually 0.06 2 0.12

10 Commercial property adjacent o cinemas for sale 0.06 3 0.18

11 TDB University installing an on-campus movie theatre 0.04 3 0.12

12 County and city property taxes increasing 25% this year 0.08 2 0.16

13 Local religious groups object to R-rated movies being shown 0.04 3 0.12

14 Movies rented from local Blockbuster store up 12% 0.08 2 0.16

15 Movies rented last quarter from Time Warner up 15% 0.06 1 0.06

TOTAL 1.00 2.58

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3.12 The Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM)

• The Competitive Profile Matrix (CPM) identifies a firm’s major competitors and its particular strengths and weaknesses in relation to a sample firm’s strategic position.

• The critical success factors in a CPM include both internal and external issues; therefore the ratings refer to strengths and weaknesses, where 4 = major strength, 3 = minor strength, 2 = minor weakness, and 1 = major weaknesses.

COMPANY A COMPANY B COMPANY C

Critical Success Factors Weight Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score

Advertising 0.20 1 0.20 4 0.80 3 0.60

Product Quality 0.10 4 0.40 3 0.30 2 0.20

Price Competitiveness 0.10 3 0.30 2 0.20 4 0.40

Management 0.10 4 0.40 3 0.20 3 0.30

Financial Position 0.15 4 0.60 2 0.30 3 0.45

Customer Loyalty 0.10 4 0.40 3 0.30 2 0.20

Global Expansion 0.20 4 0.80 1 0.20 2 0.40

Market Share 0.05 1 0.05 4 0.20 3 0.15

TOTAL 3.15 2.50 2.70

Others: Inventory systems, sales distribution, organization structure, production capacity, E-commerce, customer service, price competitive, etc

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3.13 Issues for Review and Discussion

1. Explain how Samsung Electronics has been so successful of late?2. List the ten key external forces that give rise to opportunities and threats.3. Give four reasons why you agree or do not agree with I/O theorists.