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strategic decisions making
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Fifty Models for strategic ThinkingBy Mikael Krogerus & Roman Tchappëler
The Decision Book
by Sameh GhazalyBy Sameh Ghazaly
Content:Workshop Decision making models that help you to answer
• How to improve yourself
• How to understand yourself better
• How to understand others better
• How to improve others
How to improve yourself
The Decision Book
by Sameh Ghazaly
The most dangerous decisions are rarely the most important ones . Eisenhower
Stanford University Study in 1960s – data from 500 fortune companies showed that 30% discrepancy between the company objectives & implementation
HitChange
ReferReject
Amou
nt L
earn
ed
Objectives Achieved
THE PROJECT PORTFOLIO MATRIX
Arrange your current projects in the matrix : Are you on Budget and on time ?
We often defer decisions when we’ve doubts. But not making a decision is a decision itself
WHERE HAVE YOU COME FROM ?WHAT IS REALY IMPROTANT TO YOU?WHICH PEOPLE ARE IMPORTANT TO YOU?WHAT IS HINDERING YOU?WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF ?
1- the beckoning Road 2- the dream Road 3- the sensible Road4- the road not travelled 5- The Familiar Road 6- The Road Back
YOU DECIDE …
The Decision Book
by Sameh Ghazaly
How to understand yourself better
What is preventing you from being happy?
How can we overcome the dissonance ?
Either by changing our behavior or attitude
10
70
20
REALITY DRIVEN
40
30
30
MEMORY DRIVEN
5
30
65
DREAM DRIVEN
FUTURE NOW PAST EUROPEASIAUSA
Ask yourselfHow much of your time do you spend thinking in the past ? How much about here & now ? How much about the future
Its not what you know .. Its what you remember .
How to recognize whether you should change your job
To what extent my current tasks ..
• Have to Being imposed on me or demanded of me
• Able tomatch my abilities
• Want toCorrespond to what I really want
• How to understand others better
The Decision Book
by Sameh Ghazaly
5 Years
5 Years
10 Years
10 Years 2 Years
2 Years
You can’t shake hands with a clenched fist. Indira Gandhi
Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes . Oscar Wilde
The things we desire the most are the things we need the least
Real change occur when reassess our more deeply rooted reasons, objectives and values
Any fool can criticize & most fools do. Benjamin Franklin
Why your experiences don’t make you any wiser
Bertrand Russell , the problem of philosophy 1912
How do We Know what We Know ?
Does The Past Help Us Predict The future?
Why Do We Never Expect Unexpected Events?
What Were black Swan – the unexpected events in your life and When did they occur ?
• How to improve others
The Decision Book
by Sameh Ghazaly
How to turn A group into A team
THE TEAM UP TO THE JOB
Scorer
inexhau
stible
good ta
ckler
strong n
erves
motivato
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RoonyLampardGerrardColeTerry
Avoid Penalty Shoot Out
Create New criteria that apply to your team’s objective & evaluate each team member against them , ask the team to evaluate themselves, how do the curve compare
The Gab in the Market Model
This Model Helps you to identify gaps in the market; position your competitors according to the three aces ( e.g Prestige, Cost-Effectiveness, Awareness) … Where is there a niche ?
You want to Launch a magazine .. Then
The x-axis is Cost Effectiveness - how economical is your product ?
The Y-axis is Prestige –How well known is the Product ?
The z-axis is Awareness – How loud is your product?
What Can We Learn From this Models
• Management models have tried to reduce complexity by considering ideas into matrix
• Its all started by spreadsheet programs ( like Microsoft Excel revolutionized budget tool)
• Management theory today is at about the same stage as medicine before X-Ray intro.
• Today the results of certain decisions are first tested in a virtual world before they are implemented in a real markets
• In The future, Decision makers will work with Prognosis tools (e.g. Predictions by statistical analysis) and the value of such early models shouldn’t be underestimated .. Even with the newest medical interventions to hand, A doctor will still rely on the basic diagnostic tools : listening and examining
Thank you