Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Live case presentation in course Media Management att SSE
Citation preview
Future Virtual WorldsSTEEP Analysis and Scenario Planning
Henrik Engervall ([email protected])Erik Ingemansson ([email protected])Karl Nielsen ([email protected])Teresia Schullström ([email protected])
Executive SummaryThis is a presentation of an external analysis of virtual worlds with the STEEP method and, based on the results of the analysis, four scenario plans with a total of 16 different scenarios for virtual worlds.
In the STEEP Analysis major driving forces and trends that are affecting the Virtual world industry are listed. From the STEEP the most critical uncertainties are each transformed into bipolar axis and put in different combinations where future scenarios are explored and evaluated.
The evaluation of the scenario plans shows three scenarios that, from our perspective, both more attractive and more likely to occur than the others.
• Forecast – How we think the future will be• Vision – How we want the future to be• Scenario – How the future could be
What is the future for Virtual Worlds in 3-5 years?
”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Presentation by Robin Teigland
External factors
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environment
al• Political
What are the trends and driving forces?
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environmenta
l• Political
User interest
New areas of useGravity of reality
Globalization
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environment
al• Political
What are the trends and driving forces?
Mobile devicesMixed reality
User generated content The
Cloud
What are the trends and driving forces?
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environment
al• Political
Economical cycle/general trend Interest rates
Fundings
Globalization costs
What are the trends and driving forces?
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environment
al• Political
Green tech – user side
Green tech – server side
Global trends
Globalization
Prototyping
What are the trends and driving forces?
• Sociocultural• Technological• Economical• Environmenta
l• Political
Laws
Economic regulations
Control
Scenarios of major driving forces 1
Very controlled VWs
Uncontrolled VWs
Recessio
nEcon
om
ical b
oom
”Slippery Slope”• No fundings => less
innovation (company)• More control => less user
innovation• Less in-world spending
”Organized happiness”• Users have money to
spend but play more seldom
• Users disappears due to control
”Wild West”• Security problem• Vandalism• Risk of inflation/bubble• Innovation
”Stagnation”• No funding• Less in-world spending • More gaming• More user innovation
Scenarios of major driving forces 2
Serious purpose of VWs
Casual/social purpose of VWs
VW
s a
s E
scap
e f
rom
real life R
eal life
VW
inte
gra
tion
”Virtual Superheroes”• Avatars rule!• Real life issue solving• Second Life
” Reality Wins”• Humans rule!• Mixed reality (Augmented reality)• New areas of use• Education• Visualization (virtual reality)• Virtual offices
”Blended Shallowness”• Augmented virtuality (Kinnect)• Social shopping
”ENTERTAINMENT!”• MMOGs (WoW)• Second Life• Niched VWs (Stardoll, Club
Penguin)• Immersive experiences
(Avatar movie)
Scenarios of major driving forces 3
Serious purpose of VWs
Casual/social purpose of VWs
Recessio
nEcon
om
ical B
oom
”Do It Yourself Anxiety Society”• More users• More people in education• Virtual Entrepreneurship• Business usage(to reduce costs)
”Virtual Business Society ”• Training, corp. Education• Recruitment• Visualization (virtual reality)• Business usage (meetings etc.)
”Social Spenders Society”• More Money to spend• Social shopping
”Social Slacking Society”• More gaming• MMOGs rule!• Dating
Scenarios of major driving forces 4
Advanced usage of technology
Less advanced usage of technology
Back 2
Basic
(ta
ke y
ou
r ti
me)
Need
4 S
peed
”The Matrix”• Cyber chairs• Stationary devices• Augmented Virtuality• Screen technology
”A better world”• Augmented Reality• Virtual mix• Complex mobile devices• Shopping games• Passive presence
”The presence”• Less complex devices• Social use• Social communities• Interactive city (IC YOU)
”Same Same City”• Same same
Serious purpose of VWs + Economical Boom
Serious purpose of VWs + Economical Boom + Real life VW integration
Serious purpose of VWs + Economical Boom+ Real life VW integration + Need 4 Speed+ Advanced usage of technology
”Virtual Business Society ”• Training, corp. Education• Recruitment• Visualization (virtual
reality)• Business usage (meetings
etc.)
”Reality Wins”• Humans rule!• Mixed reality (Augmented
reality)• New areas of use• Education• Visualization (virtual
reality)• Virtual offices
”A better world”• Augmented Reality• Virtual mix• Complex mobile devices• Shopping games• Passive presence
Conclusion
Thank you for listening!
/clap/whistle
SourcesInterviews• Jeff Lowe
Chief Product Officer, Reaction Grid• Eilif Trondsen
Program and Research Director, Strategic Business Insights
Internet• http://www.articleclick.com/Article/Top-5-Server-Farms-in-Terms-of-Size/1588825• http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/30/cloud-computing-carbon-emissions• http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/• http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/28/tech/cnettechnews/main6151438.shtml• http://www.adobe.com/resources/elearning/pdfs/serious_games_wp.pdf• http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html• http://www.spelbranschen.se/index.php?option=com.content&view=article&id=808:dataspelsfoersaeljningen-trotsar-konju
nkturenoch-oevertraeffar-prognosen&catid=1:senaste&Itemid=12• http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/valuegamer_final1.pdf
Reports• “Virtual worlds — past, present, and future: New directions in social computing” - Paul R. Messinger et. al. • “The Condition of Education 2010” - National Center for Education Statistics
Presentations”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Robin Teigland
