Spectrum Crunch - Rob Fitzpatrick, Director, Infrastructure, Transport & Logistics, NICTA

NICTA Copyright 2013 Wealth Creation for the Nation

SPECTRUM CRUNCH 2 October 2013

Rob Fitzpatrick, NICTA Director

Infrastructure, Transport & Logistics

1

Presenter

Presentation Notes

SESSION ONE: SPECTRUM CRUNCH? The need for greater access to spectrum for wireless broadband services is a commonly held view. However, not all of the 700 MHz band spectrum offered at the ACMA’s recent digital dividend auction was taken up by the marketplace. Does this mean we need to change our views about projected demand over the next few years? And how can we balance any increase in mobile broadband spectrum requirements with the continuing needs of incumbent users? Not all spectrum will be adopted all at once; esp in the world of broadband apps, we have a long way to go in the fields of experimentation & use. Lack of adoption does not translate to lack of interest. Where we should be focused is in the debate around the amount of LICENCED v UNLICENSED spectrum. From an ICT research perspective, my hypothesis is that we still don’t know what we don’t know, and that there’s an awful lot we don’t know Nationally, and internationally, we need to quarantine unlicensed spectrum for researchers to play (slides 2-4) Research, esp in the radio communications arena, is increasingly about data analytics & optimisation (ICT) and that requires large data sets moving about freely and easily (slides 5-6) Application areas address freight, transport & infrastructure. If you want to make it big in a gold rush, sell picks & shovels. V true in Australia. Focus on the innovation at the edges; application areas, etc. (slides 7-end) CLOSE: Australia’s strength is in its smarts. Imagine if just $3Bn of the $43Bn NBNCo budget was set aside to fund application development. We’d have new & innovative ways of laying optical fibre that would spawn born-global Aussie businesses. We’d have a public that wouldn’t lack for imagination on how to use fast broadband access. We’d be on our way to truly having a Silicon Beach. ACMA manages a national asset that’s every bit as important for enabling innovation. Worrying about auction spectrum not being taken up is the wrong question; the right question is how can we leverage our spectrum assets intelligently to inspire innovation. Spectrum is precious because wireless is the ONLY way we get to mobile things or widely dispersed stuff in the field. A lot of allocation is STATIC and wasteful. CANNOT keep doing that. Need to go dynamic and think of new ways of sharing


Unfettered innovation

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Presentation Notes

The nation, and it’s GDP, needs researchers. Researchers need sandpits. A Sandpit is an intensive, interactive workshop designed to produce radically innovative research proposals. Participants from a diverse range of disciplines come together in a creative, free-thinking environment – away from their every day routines and responsibilities – and immerse themselves deeply in a collaborative process around an important challenge ACMA can/should contribute to sandpits by ensuring free, & accessible to all to play & innovate


No such thing as an overnight success

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Presentation Notes

There’s no such thing as an overnight success Though history shows we’re adopting new technologies at an increasingly rapid rate – i.e., time to see 1,000,000 TVs or radios compared to Fax machines and now to iPhones and iPads – this records time from product launch, not from initiation of research and development Wifi was a ‘20 year overnight success’ … many others are only 10 year development Key message is we simply don’t know in many areas what innovation will evolve & capture the spectrum-consuming public’s imagination… ACMA can and should play a role in quarantining spectrum for a LONG time


Aligned to global standards

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Presentation Notes

As Chris Hancock of AARNet, the Australian Academic & Research Network, told RADCOMMS last year, research is increasingly global, and operating – literally – at the speed of light. Dedicated light paths now connect the research and education communities in more than 120 nations In parallel, it is important that spectrum is used in the same way across as many markets as possible to create economies of scale. This leads to lower prices for equipment thus increasing adoption of the technology and having a direct and indirect impact on the economic growth: enhancement of productivity, job creation, entrepreneurship, infrastructure investment, taxation Creation of economies of scale is vital for mass production of equipment and its further adoption in target markets. With greater economies of scale: end user prices will be lower, technology adoption will be more broadly spread and socio-economic benefits will be greater. E.g., 700MHz for mobile apps E.g., 5.9GHz for ITS Returns will come to Australia, through smart leveraging of our spectrum assets to ensure we’re globally aligned, that our research and innovation can work on challenges that are ‘real & present dangers’ in Australia and that are globally relevant What’s NICTA’s role in all of this?


NICTA Research: informing change

Presenter

Presentation Notes

NICTA – National ICT Australia – is Australia’s Information and Communications Technology Research Centre of Excellence. NICTA develops technologies that generate economic, social and environmental benefits for Australia. We collaborate with industry on joint projects, create new companies, and provide new talent to the ICT sector through a NICTA-enhanced PhD program. With five laboratories around Australia and over 700 people, NICTA is the largest organisation in Australia dedicated to ICT research. Our research focus is ICT – data analytics, optimisation, software systems development and similar. But its not just about adoption by ICT companies –�SAP, IBM, Oracle, etc. It’s pervasive, and impacts every sector of the economy, and increasingly, global trade. �ML: Making sense of the ever increasing amounts of data available around the world�OPT: Using scientific results to model any organisation or system, simulate and optimise it�CV: Understanding the world using images and image sequences �SS: Achieving fundamental, game-changing improvements in the design, implementation, and verification of software systems�NRG: Developing mechanisms to improve the experience of users when accessing online information and services, including wireless networks�CSP: Real-time control of large distributed dynamic systems such as power grids, water, transport and security networks


NICTA: Focus on National Productivity

Presenter

Presentation Notes

We focus on 4 sectors of the economy to create wealth for Australia BaDE: Applications of NBN, connected life and digital productivity, E-business, E-government, business process architectures, secure distributed computing Health: Bio-informatics, bio-medical devices, E-health, genomics and drug discovery Sec & Env: Defence: software and systems; Bio-security: sensing and data management ITL: Infrastructure: smart grid, smart water; Transport: roads, traffic and public transport; Logistics: Ports, rail and distribution networks.

NICTA Copyright 2013 Wealth Creation for the Nation 7

$61Bn = 14% GDP >1 million Australian jobs • Truck traffic +50% • Rail +90% • Containers +150% • International air freight +110%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

And ITL is an area where SPECTRUM will play a role in determining winners & losers, and therefore directly impacts national productivity. The ITL sector is BIG: - over $120Bn new infrastructure spend each year, according to BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport & Regional Economics and - the $61 billion Australian transport industry accounts for 14% of GDP (compared with 7% of GDP in Europe) and provides more than 1 million Australian jobs in 165,000 companies. The Federal Department of Infrastructure and Logistics estimates that, between 2010 and 2030: Truck traffic on our roads is predicted to increase by 50%, from 5.7 to 8.5 billion kilometres; Rail freight is expected to increase by 90%, from 235 to 445 billion tonne kilometres; The number of containers crossing the nation’s wharves will increase by 150%, from 6.2 to 15.4 million ‘twenty-foot equivalent units’ (TEUs); and, International air freight carried to or from Australia will increase by almost 110%, from 5.5 to 11.4 billion tonne kilometres Contributing to solutions in these areas will be great areas of opportunity for innovation.


CITI: Cooperative Intelligent Transport

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Advise drivers of: • imminent collision with

nearby vehicles • current speed limit • probable red light violations,

based on vehicle speed and traffic light phasing

• local road conditions - roadworks, side winds, water over road, etc

• most efficient route based on current traffic

Presenter

Presentation Notes

CITI is a dramatic example. CITI is a test bed for emerging technology known as Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (CITS). This technology has the potential to improve road safety by allowing vehicles to communicate with each other and roadside equipment such as traffic signals and railway level crossings. CITS has the potential to benefit not only drivers, but the entire community. The potential benefits to the community include: improved traffic safety for all road users reduced congestion and pollution increased road network efficiency shorter and/or more predictable journey times increased efficiency of public transport systems better responses to hazards, incidents and crashes.


Driver advisory service

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World-first Freight V2V & V2I trial: • 30 heavy vehicles • 42kms • From congested

Wollongong port area and CBD, via freeways and remote/rural roads, to Picton

Presenter

Presentation Notes

How does CITS work ? Using a dedicated 5.9 GHz radio frequency, data such as vehicle position, direction and speed is shared wirelessly between vehicles and CITS-equipped roadside devices. Messages and alerts can then be provided to participating drivers through in car processing of that data. As the regulator for broadcasting, the internet, radiocommunications and telecommunications, the ACMA’s responsibilities include: promoting self-regulation and competition in the communications industry, while protecting consumers and other users fostering an environment in which electronic media respect community standards and respond to audience and user needs managing access to the radiofrequency spectrum representing Australia’s communications interests internationally. The ACMA’s regulatory functions are set out in Part 2, Division 2 of the Australian Communications and Media Authority Act 2005. The CITI project will require ACMA agreement to lift the 5.9GHz embargo and payment of a licence fee.


Existing warnings don’t work

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Presentation Notes

Why is this necessary? Not only is the freight challenge increasing, and with it heavy vehicle congestion on our roads, the cabin of a heavy vehicle is increasingly becoming like an aircraft cockpit. Cutting through in that environment to inform a driver, who believes he/she ‘knows’ his vehicle, is very difficult NSW alone has a significant interaction each week between a truck and piece of fixed infrastructure, and a ‘major one – with cost over $1M – each month. This image is of the Sydney Harbour tunnel - 3 lines of ‘defence’ – the water curtain is the last, and even that’s not foolproof!


Messages to the Driver

Diversion / Exit

Main Road

Safety Intervention(progressively slowed

down)

Upstream

UpstreamWarning

DownstreamWarning

DownstreamSafety Halted

Warning

Det

ectio

n B

eam

Downstream

“Over height! Take exit or pull over safely.”

“Over height! Pull over safely.”

“Pull over! Collision danger ahead! Speed control on!”

“Over height collision danger ahead. Park safely and phone the RTA on 131 700.”

Audio

Visual

Status

Our detectors indicate that your vehicle may be over height. Do not proceed. Pull over safely and activate your hazard lights if necessary. Phone the RTA on 131 700.


Presenter

Presentation Notes

As Professor Alex Grant of UniSA told RADCOMMS in 2009, Road Safety is still the #1 issue. “Road death Australia, 2007 Statistical Summary” Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Europe & USA: 80,000 Deaths 3.5 Million Injuries


Road Safety Emergency Electronic Brake Light

Stationary Vehicle Warning Lane Change Assistant

Pre-crash Sensing Forward Collision Warning

Intersection Collision Warning Pedestrian Warning

Emergency Vehicle Warning Roadwork Warning

Level Crossing Warning Curve Speed Warning

Signal Violation Warning

Traffic Management Black Spot Notification

In Vehicle Signage Green Light Speed Advice Intersection Management Electronic Toll Collection

Map Update Traffic Probe

Eco-drive Assistance Insurance Services Fleet Management

Cooperative Cruise Control Media Download

+?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Road Safety Applications: Many are vehicle-to-vehicle based Some also use vehicle-to-infrastructure Traffic management and efficiency applications Traffic efficiency saves: time, money and reduces environmental impact


V2V2I

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Vehicles send: • latitude • longditude • elevation • speed • heading • 4-way acceleration • brake status • steering wheel angle • throttle position • exterior lights • vehicle size

Intersections send: • intersection ID • signal state • pedestrian state • time to change

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Dedicated short-range communications are short- to medium-range wireless communication channels specifically designed for automotive use and a corresponding set of protocols and standards DSRC is an enabling platform technology In contrast to e.g. e-tag technology (single-purpose), DSRC enables a wide range of applications (including those we haven’t thought of yet!) DSRC is GPS positioning with Wi-Fi like connectivity in the 5.9GHz band Communication can occur without a base station Broadcast based Based on 802.11, with a few changes: 10 MHz channels longer cyclic prefix (to mitigate outdoor radio channel) International standards are in trial use Large scale Field Operational Trials underway in Japan, Europe & USA (thousands of vehicles).


17% increase in flow

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Presentation Notes

Early research applying cooperative traffic signal control in the field of vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications shows potential to reduce stops at a given intersection by 17%, saving fuel, generating fewer emissions and leading to better traffic flow Objective: Estimate the travel time necessary for an approaching vehicle to pass through the stopline at the signalised intersection Solution: A probability function for phase change when vehicle arrived at stopline, given the current state of individual vehicle The number of vehicle stops was reduced by 17%, though overall delay remained constant. 17% less stops = saved fuel from re-starting, less emissions, better traffic flow, etc, etc. NOTE: Bellman’s equation A Bellman equation, also known as a dynamic programming equation, named after its discoverer, Richard Bellman, is a necessary condition for optimality associated with the mathematical optimization method known as dynamic programming. It writes the value of a decision problem at a certain point in time in terms of the payoff from some initial choices and the value of the remaining decision problem that results from those initial choices. This breaks a dynamic optimization problem into simpler subproblems, as Bellman's Principle of Optimality prescribes. The Bellman equation was first applied to engineering control theory and to other topics in applied mathematics, and subsequently became an important tool in economic theory. Almost any problem which can be solved using optimal control theory can also be solved by analyzing the appropriate Bellman equation. However, the term 'Bellman equation' usually refers to the dynamic programming equation associated with discrete-time optimization problems. In continuous-time optimization problems, the analogous equation is a partial differential equation which is usually called the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation.


Internet of Everything

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Presentation Notes

CISCO: “INTERNET OF EVERYTHING” REPRESENTS A $14.4 TRILLION OPPORTUNITY MARCH 13, 2013 Cisco claims that the Internet of Everything represents a $14.4 trillion opportunity in increased revenues and decreased costs for businesses and customers over the next decade. The company says that the Internet of Everything has the potential to grow global corporate profits by 21 percent by 2022. The supply chain and logistics sector alone has the potential to save $2.7 billion from increased efficiencies resulting from deploying RFID and other technologies. According to an article in ZD Net, Cisco spent approximately $5.5 billion on research and development during 2012 in support of the Internet of Everything. In addition, it has formed 70,000 partnerships, made more than 160 acquisitions, and has more than 13,000 patents registered. Seven key verticals will lead the charge in adopting the Internet of Things, led by manufacturing. In addition, the public sector, energy/utilities, healthcare, finance/insurance, transportation, and wholesale/distribution are expected to be swift adopters. For Cisco, the Internet of Things makes up the Internet of Everything — the former of which is defined as the sensors, the actuators, RFID tags, consumer devices, and industrial equipment that will converge in the world of IT. 99 percent of electronics in the world today still aren’t connected to the Internet. The next step, therefore, is the Internet of Everything in which those devices will be brought online. For the Internet of Everything, Lloyd said that means taking people, process, data — all the things done so far in connecting the first 10 billion connected devices — to unlock capabilities we haven’t seen yet.


How do we create space for:

ical

∧ … dynamic allocation?

… P2P allocation/access?

… fast & free research?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

CONCLUSION From an ICT research perspective, we don’t know what we don’t know, and that there’s an awful lot we don’t know Nationally, and internationally, we need to quarantine unlicensed spectrum for researchers to play (slides 2-4) – MOVE FROM RADIO COMMUNICATIONS TO RADICAL COMMUNICATIONS Research, esp in the radio communications arena, is increasingly about data analytics & optimisation (ICT) and that requires large data sets moving about freely and easily (slides 5-6) Application areas address freight, transport & infrastructure. If you want to make it big in a gold rush, sell picks & shovels, don’t do the digging. V true in Australia. Focus on the innovation at the edges; application areas, etc. (slides 7-end) CLOSE: Australia’s strength is in its smarts. Imagine if just $3Bn of the $43Bn NBNCo budget was set aside to fund application development. We’d have new & innovative ways of laying optical fibre that would spawn born-global Aussie businesses. We’d have a public that wouldn’t lack for imagination on how to use fast broadband access. We’d be on our way to truly having a Silicon Beach. ACMA manages a national asset that’s every bit as important for enabling innovation. Worrying about auction spectrum not being taken up is the wrong question; the right question is how can we leverage our spectrum assets intelligently to inspire innovation. Spectrum is precious because wireless is the ONLY way we get to mobile things or widely dispersed stuff in the field. A lot of allocation is STATIC and wasteful. CANNOT keep doing that. Need to go dynamic and think of new ways of sharing How do we liberate those assets to unleash unfettered creativity?�And with this, liberate productivity for Australia & the planet?

Business

Spectrum Crunch - Rob Fitzpatrick, Director, Infrastructure, Transport & Logistics, NICTA