Is Your Farm Climate Ready?

Although agriculture has a long history of successful adaptation to

climate conditions, the current pace of climate change and the

intensity of projected climate changes represent a novel and

unprecedented challenge to the sustainability of U.S. agriculture. Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation.

C. Walthall, J. Hatfield, L. Lengnick, E. Marshall and P. Backlund. 2012. USDA

Technical Bulletin 1935

Best Practices for Managing

Climate Risk on Your Farm

Laura Lengnick

Warren Wilson College, Asheville, NC

Southern SAWG Conference, Mobile AL, January 2014

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

Percent Change in Very Heavy Precipitation

Baseline 1900-1960

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

Changes in Precip

NCA precip fig

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

Future Winters in Southeast

Changes in weather

More warm days in winter

Fewer very cold days and days with snow cover

Agricultural impacts

Less pest die back

Slower chill accumulation

Increased plant growth and development

Increased soil microbe activity

Future Springs in Southeast

Changes in weather

More warm days

More intense storms, increased hail

Agricultural impacts

Earlier emergence of pests, fruit crops

Earlier maturity of winter crops

More variable last freeze

Increased risk of freeze/hail damage

Future Summers in Southeast

Changes in weather

More hot days, warm nights

Fewer days with rain

More days with intense rain

Agricultural Impacts

More heat, moisture stress

Increased water use

More days of excess water

Faster crop development/maturity

Reduced pollen viability

Increased pest pressure

Future Autumns in Southeast

Changes in Weather

More intense hurricanes

More warm days/nights

Later first frost

Agricultural impacts

Longer growing season

Higher pest pressures

Higher risk of hurricane damage

Productivity Costs

Crops may benefit at first,

but production falls with

continued change

Forage quality declines

Livestock productivity

declines

Weeds, diseases, and

insect pests more

competitive

Extreme events reduce

product quality and yields

Potential Opportunities

Longer growing season

Higher near-term crop

production

New warm season crops

New market potentials

Lower winter costs

Agricultural Risk

Farm Performance

Production Financial

Marketing

Human

Legal

Climate

Climate Risk

Exposure Degree to which a farm experiences

climate-related events.

Adaptive Capacity Ability of a farm to cope with

climate-related events.

Farm Vulnerability

How Vulnerable Is Your Farm?

Key exposures

average temperature increase

Higher low and high temps

Increasing weather variability

Greater number of more intense extreme events

Multiple impacts increase risk

Adaptive capacity of your farm system

Production sensitivities

Resource characteristics

Production Sensitivities?

Critical growth or development stage

thresholds

Pest challenges

Pollination services

Plant available water

Humidity

Timing of field operations

Resource Characteristics?

Soil

Water

Microclimates

Crops/Livestock

Infrastructure

Production system

Extreme events plan

Farm reserves

Community support

Key Actions Now

Recognize you are farming on a changing planet

Address key farm vulnerabilities

Draw on existing knowledge, local experience

and experience from warmer regions

Use no-regrets adaptations to enhance

adaptive capacity

Monitor farm performance

Use climate projections in longer-term decisions