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20 October 2009
0
The SKF Group
Nine-month results 2009
Tom Johnstone, President and CEO
20 October 2009
2Key points from Q3 report
• Strong cash flowQ3: SEK 1,359 m YTD September: SEK 4,307 m
• Dramatic volume drop year over year. Trend indicates levelling off.Q3: -24.9% YTD September: -27.6%
• Continued strong price/mixQ3: 3.7% YTD September: 5.5%
• Cost reduction efforts in focus and giving results- annualised savings from all programmes, around SEK 800 million- significant short-time working being utilized. Now 14,000 people.
• Demand outlook for Q4- year over year: significantly lower- sequentially: slightly higher
20 October 2009
3Highlights Q3 2009
SKF
• inaugurated its additional investment in the factory for large size bearings in Dalian, China, which doubles the manufacturing capacity.
• signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Sinovel Wind Co. Ltd for strategic partnership, and a series of contracts with a value exceeding SEK 330 m for main shaft bearings and sealing systems for 3MW wind turbines.
• signed a service contract with Transocean. The contract is worth SEK 10 m and covers asset reliability services for 59 of Transocean's drilling rigs.
• was selected as the sector leader for the IEQ Industrial Engineering sector in the 2009 Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes (DJSI). SKF was also included in the FTSE4Good Index Series, for the ninth year in succession.
20 October 2009
4Highlights Q3 2009
SKF launched 11 new solutions to help customers increase equipment reliability, reduce maintenance costs and environmental impact:
Wind turbine blade bearing greaseTelescopic pillar system
Sealed spherical roller bearings
Super precision bearings
Y-bearings
Machine condition advisor
Profile rail guides
Actuators
Large diameter sealing solutions
Oil conditioning unit
Sealing solutions for screw
compressors
20 October 2009
5Third quarter 2009
SEKm 2009 2008
Net sales 13,324 15,381
Operating margin excl. restructuring, % 8.7% 13.6%
Cash flow after investments before financial items 1,359 -526
Operating margin 7.2% 13.6%
Operating profit 957* 2,085
Profit before taxes 689 1,859
Net profit 483 1,257
Basic earnings per share, SEK 1.01 2.67
* Q3 restructuring around SEK 200 mOperating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 1,157 m
20 October 2009
6First nine months 2009
SEKm 2009 2008
Net sales 42,340 47,054
Operating margin excl. restructuring, % 7.3% 13.3%
Cash flow after investments before financial items 4,307 215
Operating margin 5.2% 13.3%
Operating profit 2,199* 6,260
Profit before taxes 1,532 5,761
Net profit 1,200 3,922
Basic earnings per share, SEK 2.56 8.39
* YTD September restructuring around SEK 875 mOperating profit excl. restructuring activities SEK 3,074 m
20 October 2009
7Growth in local currency(Organic growth + Acquisition/Divestments)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 YTD September2009
% y-o-y
13.2%
Organic growth
Long-term target level: 6-8% per annum
7.1%-20.8%
Acquisitions/Divestments
20 October 2009
8Sales in local currencies (excl. structural changes)
-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015
% change y-o-y
2007 2008 2009
20 October 2009
9Sales volume
-35-30-25
-20-15-10-5
05
10% change y-o-y
2008 20092007
20 October 2009
10Components in net sales
2007 20092008Percent y-o-y Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
-26.9 -30.8
1.1
5.6
-24.1
12.2
-11.9
1.4
7.1
-18.4
13.6
-4.8
-13.0
2.4
8.5
-2.1
10.3
8.2
2.7
0.5
6.4
9.6
-0.9
8.7
6.2
1.3
4.0
11.5
-4.1
7.4
4.9
1.0
3.8
9.7
-1.2
8.5
6.3
1.0
3.2
10.5
-2.0
8.5
9.0
3.7
2.0
14.7
-1.9
12.8
6.9
4.6
2.7
14.2
-2.3
11.9
7.9
4.0
1.8
13.7
-5.6
8.1
Q3
-24.9
1.2
3.7
-20.0
6.6
-13.4
Volume
Structure
Price / Mix
Sales in local currency
Currency
Net sales
20 October 2009
11Operating margin
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 YTD September2009
%
12.9 12.2
Long-term target level: 12%
5.2
13.3* 12.7*
7.3*
Restructuring and one-time items
* Excluding restructuring and one-time items
20 October 2009
12Operating margin
% Long-term target level: 12%
2008 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007
Restructuring and one-time items
20 October 2009
13Operating margin per division
-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
1012141618
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Industrial
Service
Automotive
%
2007 2008
Excluding one-off items (eg. restructuring, impairments, capital gains)
2009
20 October 2009
14Activities to adapt to lower demand
• Restructuring/impairment activities People Costs charged to
operating profit
Q4 2008 2,500 SEK 340 mQ1 2009 500 SEK 175 mQ2 2009 900 SEK 500 mQ3 2009 70 SEK 200 m
3,970 SEK 1,215 m
At the end of September 2009, around 4,400 people have left the Group since the third quarter last year, of which around 2,500 people under the programmes.
Total savings from these activities around SEK 800 m.
• In addition, around 14,000 people in short-time working end of September 2009.
20 October 2009
15Inventories as % of annual sales
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25%
2007
Long-term target level: 18%
2008 2009
20 October 2009
16Return on capital employed
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 YTD September2009
ROCE: Operating profit plus interest income, as a percentage of twelve months average of total assets less the average of non-interest bearing liabilities.
%Long-term target level: 24%
24.9 24.0
10.2
20 October 2009
17Net debt(Short-term financial assets minus loans and post-employment benefits)
-18 000
-16 000
-14 000
-12 000
-10 000
-8 000
-6 000
-4 000
-2 000
0
SEKm
AB SKF, dividend paid (SEKm):2007 Q2 2,0492008 Q2 2,2772009 Q2 1,594
Redemption (SEKm):2007 Q2 4,5542008 Q2 2,277
2007 2008 2009
20 October 2009
18AB SKF, debt structure
Amount in million Maturity
Euro Bond EUR 132* 2010-06
SEK Bond SEK 1,500 2011-06
Term loan in euro EUR 150 2013-06
Euro Bond EUR 500 2013-12
Euro loans EUR 130 2014-03
Euro loan EUR 100 2016-06
* Was EUR 250 million, reduced by EUR 118 million in Q2.
20 October 2009
19Cash flow, after investments before financial items
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500SEKm
Cash out fromacquisitions* (SEKm):
2007 1,2092008 1,2842009 239
20092007 2008
* including non-controlling interests.
20 October 2009
20October 2009: Outlook for the fourth quarter 2009
Sales development compared to fourth quarter last yearThe demand for SKF products and services is expected to be significantly lower for the Group in total and in Europe and North America. In Asia it is expected to be unchanged and in Latin America slightly higher. It is expected to be unchanged for the Automotive Division but significantly lower for the Industrial Division and Service Division.
Sales development compared to the third quarter this yearThe demand is expected to be slightly higher for the SKF Group in total. It is expected to be relatively unchanged in Europe and North America and slightly higher in Asia and Latin America. It is expected to be relatively unchanged for the Automotive Division and slightly higher for both the Service Division and the Industrial Division.
Manufacturing levelThe manufacturing level will be significantly lower year on year and slightly higher compared to the third quarter.
20 October 2009
21Volume trends(based on current assumptions)
Daily volume trends for: Q3 2009 Q4 2009
Total
5%Latin America
19%Asia Pacific
17%North America
56%Europe
Net sales2008
---
+
=
---
---
Outlook Q42009 vs 2008
20 October 2009
22Sequential volume trend main segments Q4 2009(based on current assumptions)
5% Aerospace
13%
12%
9%
6%
Cars
Industrial OEM, Heavy+Off-highway
Vehicle Service Market
Energy
5% Trucks
23%
20%
3%
3%
Industrial distribution
Industrial OEM, General+Special
Railway
Electrical and two-wheeler
Net sales 2008
20 October 2009
23Guidance for the fourth quarter 2009
• Tax level: around 30%
• Financial net for the fourth quarter:Around SEK -200 million
• Exchange rates on operating profit versus 2008Q4: +0Full year: SEK 750 million
• Additions to PPE: Around SEK 2 billion for 2009
-
Guidance is approximate and based on current assumptions and exchange rates.
20 October 2009
24Key focus areas ahead 2009
• Profit and cash flow- maintain positive price/mix- drive operational efficiency and cost reduction- reduce working capital and investments
• Adjustment of manufacturing output to new demand levels- restructuring- short-time working
• Growing segments and geographies
• Strengthening the platform/segment approach
• Competence development
SKF Care and Six Sigma as guiding lights
20 October 2009
25SKF Care
Employee Care
Community CareEnvironmental Care
Business Care
BeyondZeroTM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
SKF Care
Operating margin
20 October 2009
26SKF Group Vision
To equip the worldwith SKF knowledge
20 October 2009
27Cautionary statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on the
current expectations of the management of SKF.
Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-
looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such
expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ
materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements as a result of,
among other factors, changes in economic, market and competitive conditions,
changes in the regulatory environment and other government actions, fluctuations
in exchange rates and other factors mentioned in SKF's latest annual report
(available on www.skf.com) under the Administration Report; "Most important
factors influencing the financial results", "Financial risks" and "Sensitivity analysis”.
20 October 2009
28