Sis thu 0900 siddharth shah

PRESENTED BY:

EFFICIENT FRONTIER 809 ELEVENTH AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089 TELEPHONE: 408.585.2700 WWW.EFRONTIER.COM 1

THE FUTURE OF ATTRIBUTION:MOVING PAST THE LAST CLICK

Dr. Siddharth ShahSr. Director, Business Analytics

EFFICIENT FRONTIER 809 ELEVENTH AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089 TELEPHONE: 408.585.2700 WWW.EFRONTIER.COM

INTRODUCTIONS

• Over $1 Billion+ in annual marketing spend under management across search, display and social media

• 250 Leading marketers work with Efficient Frontier globally

• 50 Full-time engineers, 40 Master’s degrees, 8 PhD’s, 7 patents pending

About Efficient Frontier

About Me

• Oversee performance management of all client campaigns at the company across all media

• Former quant nerd: PhD in Biomedical imaging

• Specialize in bad mathematical one-liners


Don’t drink and derive. Alcohol and algebra don’t mix !


How do we buy online ?

On average there are 4-6 touch-points across digital marketing before conversion.

Impression RMX Creative Disp 2

Click Facebook Creative FB 1

Impression

Adx Creative Disp 1

Conversion

- -

Event Channel

KW / CreativeTime

Click Adwords

“t shirt”


$10,000

$20,000

DIRECT

INDIRECT

PROBLEM WITH “LAST CLICK”


THE KEYS TO ATTRIBUTION

UnifiedTracking

• Track interaction of the user with all media channels• Challenge: Instrument disparate systems to talk

Attribute &Analyze

• Model how different factors contribute to conversion and relate to one another

• Challenge: Clean data via well-designed tests

Optimize

• Allocate media spend based on cross-channel models to maximize performance

• Challenge: Models are complicated. Hard to integrate offline with online media data


CROSS CHANNEL TRACKING: VALUE DISTRIBUTION ACROSS TOUCHPOINTS

Facebook Conversion

Natural

Search

Display

ViewPaid

SearchPaid

Search

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1


Channel Equal Credit Last Click First Click

SEM 35% 25% 15%

SEO 25% 50% 30%

FACEBOOK 10% 5% 25%

DISPLAY 30% 20% 40%

• Changing attribution will impact channel budget allocation.• Understand the impact before you make the change.

MULTI CHANNEL ATTRIBUTION: ALTERNATIVE MODELS


Budget: $$$$$$$

Multiple Goals:(1) Max Revenue

(2) >10,000 Leads

Cross Channel Modeling

Facebook

BiddableDisplay

SEM

TV

$

$

$$

$$$$

Budget

Bids

CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMIZATION:THE VISION

“Dynamically model all cross-channel interaction effects and apply optimization algorithms to determine the correct media mix.”


Total Marketing Budget: $12,000

CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMIZATIONALL ONLINE CHANNELS


Collect SEM and TV data

Determine Revenue attribution for the multi-

point multi-channel funnel

Build TV Models

Build SEM models

Cross Channel Optimization using

portfolio theory

Cross-channel Efficient Frontier

Objective:Given an overall budget, find the best way to bid across search and TV to get the maximum return for the advertising dollar.

$0

$2,

212

$4,

429

$6,

660

$8,

873

$11

,051

$13

,296

$15

,532

$17

,743

$19

,980

$22

,171

$24

,420

$26

,613

$28

,763

$31

,022

$33

,258

$35

,407

$37

,707

$39

,734

$42

,118

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

SEM + TV Frontier

Total Budget

Tota

l R

evenue

CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMIZATIONTV + SEARCH


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Impact of Press on Search 'Total Sales‘ (Koyck Model)

Average Total Sales Gained Accumulative % Effect

Lag (week)

Typically 6-7 weeks of improved performance on Search due to TV and press advertising campaigns

CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMIZATIONPRESS + SEARCH


CONCLUSIONS

•First pre-requisite: Work through tracking to unify data for analysis.

•Attribution is a partial solution.

•Attribution + Algorithmic Optimization is the solution for answering the media mix question

13

Still a young field with tons of potential !
