Louis R. Ferretti

Project Executive, Product Environmental Compliance& Supply Chain Social Responsibility

Sept 28 – Oct 1

photo of the "Ital Florid by NASIM4248

What Every Procurement Professional Should

Know About Supplier & Supply Chain Risk

… and How to

Uncover, Manage

and Mitigate

Supplier and Supply

Chain Risk

photo of the "Ital Florid by NASIM4248

Abstract

Businesses today are ever more depend on their supply chain partners for goods and services which make up a

significant portion of the solutions they provide to their clients. Correspondingly globalization has introduced the

opportunity to do business with suppliers the world over, allowing greater access to a host of untold products and

services - that can provide a competitive advantage to the OEM, which enables them delivering increased value to

their clients. Nevertheless, a global sourcing strategy has introduced a set of risks well beyond what was typical in

the traditional suppler chain. The question is how does a company engage in global sourcing and yet gain the

benefits while weighing and managing risks. Beyond assessing the risk of a supplier and their supply, there are

opportunities to collaborate and assess a supplier's level of resiliency, and where appropriate engage in actions of

remediation.

RISK is one of the SIX mega-trends impacting enterprises around the world

• Managing market and political uncertainty is more complex than ever

• Accelerating global shifts pose new risks; resiliency/responsiveness differentiate

• Evolution to a holistic view of risk management

• Risks can be hedged through intelligenceRis

k

Com

ple

xity

IBM Chief Supply Chain Officer Study Identified The Top Five Challenges

Risks, both operational and financial, is the #2 concern of supply chain executives worldwide

Supply chains have become increasingly more global and complex, bringing with them greater challenges and risks

• Japan earthquake / tsunami

• Thailand Flooding

• Hynix China Fire

• Philippines Typhoon

• Thailand State of Emergency/Martial Law

• Ukraine Political Unrest

• Russian Sanctions

• Gaza Bombings

• Manage risks within the extended supply chain based on continuous risk assessment

• Utilize a collaborative and structured approach • Reduce vulnerability, increase resiliency and ensure supply

continuity via mitigation planning

Risk Management System

Risk

Assessment

Risk

Mitigation

Planning

On-going

Risk

Monitoring

and Control

1. Globalization Redefined2. Technological Progress3. Population Migration

4. Risk Complexity5. Sustainability Imperative6. Informed Customer

Major factors affecting the enterprise today

Managing Risk is an imperative for Business Continuity Planning

3

Business Continuity Planning & Supply Chain Risk – An Overview

Supplier Failure

Currency

Political

Fuel Costs Social Responsibility

Intellectual Property

Attrition Rates

Labor Disputes

Labor Costs

EnvironmentalRegulatory Compliance

Product Safety

Taxes

ResponsivenessBrand Impact

Geophysical 4

Supply Chain Risks

Cyber Security

5

How “Risky” is the Supply Chain ?

Supply chain failures continue to be the top concern for US and Canadian business leaders. …

The CHUBB Multinational Risk Survey finds that

….. Businesses cite supply chain failure as the topconcern. …

……[only] 56% of the companies report having abusiness continuity plan..… The lack of continuity plans … is disturbing

From Inside Supply Management – June/July 2014 Global Trends – news in a changing world

External Environment

Business Strategy

Operational Model

Reputation

Financial Model

Senior

Leadership

Approval and

Ownership

Emerging

Risks

LowM

edium-Low

Medium

-High

High

HighMedium-HighMedium-LowLow

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample Sample

Sample Sample Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

LowM

edium-Low

Medium

-High

High

HighMedium-HighMedium-LowLow

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample Sample

Sample Sample Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample Sample

Sample

Sample

Sample

Impa

ct

Likelihood

Board / Audit

Committee

Review

Relationship with critical suppliers:

Ability to manage the end-to-end supply chain, including

the dependency on critical suppliers

Risk

Management

Competitive

Advantage

Enablement

EffectivenessProgram

and Practices

LeadershipReport Communicate

Monitor Implement

External

Research

Executive

Interviews

A systematic approach to Identify, Assess and Address risk

Enterprise-wide view

Focus on both hazards and missed opportunities

Improve business results and drive competitive advantage

IBM has developed a robust Risk Management program – and Supply Chain risk

management is an important focus area

6

IBM Enterprise Risk Management

Setting the Context

Executive Direction

c. 2009

….. will initiate a broad piece of work to evaluate the risks in our extended supply

chain….. will prioritize based upon known or anticipated issues.

The gas supply

…. Israeli situation

…. ongoing issues in Thailand

…..effects of a lower economic growth rate on political and social stability

And many other risks including but not limited to transportation

costs/climatic/political/economic/social/environmental/health, etc...

…. globalizing our supply chains have introduced additional risks

8

- successfully uncover and manage supplier and supply chain risk

Well defined “on boarding” check list and tool

Risk profile assessment

Documented process, line ownership and management system

Data base / tool to house data and perform computations

Impact / likelihood weighing algorithm

Risk ranking methodology

Mitigation and business continuity plans

Real time alerts

Experienced cross functional, multi cultural core team

Key ingredients necessary to

9

Initial and On Going Risk Compliance – to legal and internal policies

Ethics, Bribery and Corruption

Import / Export & Embargoed Country Restrictions

Environmental, Product Safety, Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC)

Chemical Management and clean up

Quality and defective products reporting, corrective action and recalls

Diverse business relationships

Data security

Sustainability and code of conduct

Financials

Supply chain risk / business continuity planning

Our objective is not to eliminate risk, because without risk there is no progress.Instead it is to ensure we can manage and mitigate risks.

SocialListening

MarketIntelligence

Socialand EnvironmentalLeadership

BusinessAnalytics

Supplier Total Risk Tool & Process

Risk

Assessment

Risk

Mitigation

Planning

On-going

Risk

Monitoring

and Control

• Comprehensive risk assessment

• Ongoing mitigation

Protections against loss of

revenue and profits by minimizing

likelihood and severity of supply

chain disruption

Solution

Supply Chain

Risk Management Tools

Managing market and political uncertainty ismore complex than ever

Risks can be hedged through intelligence and holistic view of risk management

1. Incorporating key information about global supply chain from market intelligence communications

2. Augmenting existing information not available via current market intelligence processes

3. Listening for sentiment and trends for critical items and events

Uncovering and Managing Supplier / Supply Chain Risk

• IBM Outstanding Innovation Award

• Patent for impact likelihood algorithm

• CSCMP finalist Award for Supply Chain Innovation

Key Benefits Recognition

• Uncovers multiple risks, assesses likelihood & impact of each• Addresses risks with formal mitigation plans• Provides consistent risk management approach across

brands/commodities• Trends and patterns are revealed by systematic risk analysis

2 x year complete Supply Base Assessment Country / Hub / Supplier / Supplier Site / Commodity

Based on External and Internal Market Intelligence

4 x year Finanical Assessment – top critical suppliers

Real Time Alerts Critical elements of the Supply Chain for Countries,

Hubs, Suppliers, Sites, Commodities External and Internal Market Intelligence

Additional Market Intelligence Feeds and Actions White Paper, Advisories, Weekly Reports Bi-Weekly Updates to the Management Team Quarterly Briefing to IBM‘s Chief Risk Officer Central Repository (aka community) for all Risk Related Topics Outputs from Social Listening tool

External Data Source focusing on selected growth market countriesand hubs Providing specialized alerts

External Data Source Provider searching upstream supply chain, e.g. Conflict minerals, rare earth metals

Highlights - Risk Process and Management System

Risk Mitigation Plans(via Lotus Notes database)

Plans formulated to address

identified risk

Plans reviewed and approved by

management

Supplier Financial Risk

Assessment (SFRA) Tool

Supplier-Site & Pandemic

Questionnaires

Commodity

Lead

Council Lead

Supplier &

Commodity

Questionnaires

Country & Hub

Questionnaires

Market Intelligence

External Data

Source Provider

Country & Hub

Questionnaires

Cognos Business

Intelligence Reporting• Risk ratings by …

Country

Hub

Supplier

Supplier Site

Commodity

Reports Generated …

- Global View

- Supply Chain Report

- Questionnaire Report

Risk

Identified

Total Risk

Assessment Tool(Determines Risk Rating for

combination of all entities and risks)

Output of from

Social Listening tool Business Continuity Planning

Supplier Assessment Ratings

Complemented by

Real Time Alerts from External Data Source Provider

– anytime, re. potential disruption threats

Supply Chain Social

Responsibility Audit

Compliance Reference

Total Risk Tool and Process Landscape

UncoverAnalyze

MitigateManage

Risk

Categories Supplier Site Supplier Commodity Country Hub

Pandemic

Disaster Production Stoppage, Pandemic related

Raw Material related

War and Civil Unrest related

Shut Down related

Communication & Cooperation

Environment & Natural Hazards

Economic / Financial

HR

Infrastructure, Logistics & Energy

Labor & Health Includes

Pandemic

Political, Legal & Social

Product & Market Requirements

Quality

Security

Strategic Importance

Categories and Types of Risk Evaluated

Supplier Risk Assessment

0.000%

10.000%

20.000%

30.000%

40.000%

50.000%

60.000%

70.000%

80.000%

90.000%

100.000%

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

L

I

y = 1 / (10 * (x + 0,05)) + 0,1 y = 1 / (10 * (x + 0,20)) - 0,1 Supplier

High Risk

Medium Risk

Low Risk

Imp

ac

t

Likelihood

Impact / Likelihood Assessment

• Real time alerts from External Data Source Provider of specific aspects as events unfolded provided an assessment damage and how quickly supply could be restored

• Based on tool out put, immediately knew number of suppliers in Japan, which categories affected (e.g. commodities, logic, memory) and what tier supplier impacted

• Able to immediately contact suppliers and understand- Extent of damage- Whether in exclusion zone or not- Ability to produce / maintain measure of supply continuity- Supplier contingency plans- Mitigation Actions (e.g. moving manufacturing to alternative locations)

• Can look for supply continuity down through multiple levels of supply chain where IBM has qualification / sourcing relationships with sub tier suppliers - Through use of related tool and process

• 12-24 hour head start in securing supply and implementation of mitigation actions

15

2011 Japan Earthquake / Tsunami and Thailand Flooding

- Demonstrated value of tool and process

Case Study

Supplier Sourcing Consider Supplier Risk in Sourcing Process

Use as decision support tool to award business

Business Continuity Planning Consider BCP Readiness into Supplier Risk

Inadequate BCP Readiness require Mitigation Action to Improve Risk Score

Risk of Flooding Multiple input parameters like topography, historical weather pattern, soil type, ...

Selected Countries

GPS tagging of Supplier Location

Publicly Available Data Maps

Views provided to Sourcing teams

Use of Mobile Communication (under development)

Bi-directional Communication with Suppliers

Share Risk Events

16

Pro-Active Elements of Risk Management

Likelihood Impact Model Risk = Probability of Risk Event x Impact to Business

Heat Map with modified Thresholds

Thresholds set to capture 10 – 15% High Risk Supplier

~95%+ Spend Coverage ($5bn) ~450 High to Low Impact Suppliers

~2400 Supplier Site-Commodity Combinations Main driver Component and Memory

Subtier Supplier include certified Fab locations

Differentiation between Fab, Assembly and Test

Components, Logic, Microcomponents, test

~ 60 Commodities Tracked From finished Boxes to Assemblies to Chip Families

~50 Country and Regions Tracked All Growth Markets covered

~50 Key Transportation Hubs Tracked ~ Main Country Entry and Exit Transportation Points

~3000 Supply Chains captured

17

Factoids

Past (examples) Bangkok Political Unrest 2009 / 2010

Russia – Ukraine Gas Dispute 2009 / 2010

Japan Tsunami and Reactor Melt Down 2011

Thailand Flooding 2011 / 2014

Super Typhoon Haiyan – Philippines 2013

Hynix Wuxi, China DRAM plant fire 2013

Thailand State of Emergency 2014

Ukraine political unrest 2014

Madagascar hurricane 2014

Chilean earth quake and tsunami 2014

Mexico City earth quake 2014

WTO ruling and China Appeal re. Rare Earth Metal ruling

Export of ore restrictions 2014

Continued Focus on Youth Unemployment in Europe

Youth Unemployment trigger to Social Unrest 2013/5

Russian Sanctions 2014/5

Vietnam roits against Chinese businesses 2014

Thailand Martial Law/New Regime 2014

Ukraine 2014/5

Argentina Bond Repayment 2014

Greece and EU 2014/5

Source http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-10/fresh-

protests-at-rio-expulsions2c-demolitions/5193272

Source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan

18

Assessment of Major Risk Events

Real time order

status visibility and

exception alerts Credibility and reliable

information

Increased customer

satisfaction levels

Effective supplier

collaboration Reduced inventory levels

and operations cost

Improved sharing of

demand information and

collaboration

Intelligent Operations & Resolution Center

Key Benefits

IBM

Client

Business

Partners

Suppliers

Improved visibility

into finished goods

inventory Better service level

commitments

Order status

notifications

Transparent operations

management Issues / risks identification

and correlation to assess

impact to supply chain

Next best action initiation

Alert / exception driven

(mobile & web) model

Single version of truth

Transparent Supply ChainCloud SocialAnalytics Mobile

TSC Functions

Mobile App for alerts

Global Level KPIs

with drill downs

Geo spatial & other

visualizations

Our vision is to create the most transparent supply chain in the world: predictive, social, real-time, and global

Transparent Supply Chain – Geospatial Map Alerts- Possible Supplier/Supply Chain Opportunities for Disruptions

Z

Predicting Risk with Certainty - The Genesis

March 11, 2011 – Japanese earth quake, tsunami and nuclear reactor melt down

Critical single sourced component sourced with supplier inside the “exclusion zone” – no access to parts/building

- Led to expedited qualification – development, engineering, procurement and suppliers

Sept 4, 2013 – SK Hynix Memory Factory Explosion and Fire

Sep 4, 2013 - A huge fire at an SK Hynix component factory in Wuxi, China, has highlighted supply chain vulnerability.

DON'T PANIC says Hynix, China fab explosion is no big deal

www.theregister.co.uk/.../ dont_panic_says_hynix_

Sep 4, 2013 - Fears that an explosive fire at SK Hynix's Chinese fabs in Wuxi will cause a spike in chip prices are unfounded, says the

company.

Update: Hynix plant fire leaves memory shipments on hold ...

www.computerworld.com/.../update--hynix-plant-fire-lea...

Sep 4, 2013 - The Korean press reports that a fire in Hynix's fabrication plants 1 and 2 in China may put DRAM shipments on hold for the

foreseeable future.

Hynix FABs on fire after chemical explosion | KitGuru

www.kitguru.net/.../faith/hynix-fabs-on-fire-after-chemical-explosion/

Sep 4, 2013 - World DRAM prices are set to rocket as news comes in that Hynix FABs ... in Hynix's wuxi fab in China was NOT the

chemical explosion but ...

Hynix DRAM plant erupts in flames, entire industry affected

www.tweaktown.com › News › BREAKING STORY

Sep 4, 2013 - Two Hynix DRAM production facilities in Wuxi, China destroyed in massive chemical explosion and resulting fires.

China fire rattles world chip supply chain | Fox News

www.foxnews.com/.../china-fire-rattles-world-chip-su...

- Led to an immediate approval to purchase and pull in inventory ~$1m

“Risk Rover” – Watson Project

21

Predicting Risk with Certainty

Domain:Risk team receives many reports and updates re. threats (man made and natural) that can impact supply continuity. In spite

of the threat of a supply chain disruption, most do not come to fruition. Taking preemptive actions such as qualifying another

source, pulling inventory and/or moving the business to another supplier, when threatened, and then if the threat does not

materialize, these actions produce a measure of distraction, lost time and wasted effort by the sourcing teams and others.

Concept:Search past/recent past social, political, economic unrest events, including climatic events to determine if they:

a) do come to fruition as forecasted, and if they do,

b) was there an impact to in country commerce, aka disruptions to transportation, roads, airports,

workforce etc.?

Evaluation of data can show what is the likelihood of an event a) coming to fruition (eg disruption) and b) if it does come about

as forecasted, what is the likelihood that supplier’s business will result in interruption of supply and/or services?

Data Sources:Collect and analyze vast array of news reports of social, political, economic unrest events as well as climatic events – over

last x years.

Benefits / Opportunity:Procurement, Engineering and Supplier resources conserved and only expended when situation indicates a high likelihood of

an event materially impacting the supply chain.

“Risk Rover” – Watson Project

22

.

A New Way to Manage IBM and Supplier Supply Chain Risk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan

IBM Risk Rover Team

Thomas Ward – ES

Chester Karwatowski – CIO

Hans-J Eickelmann – Proc

Jason Horner – Proc

Patrick Gibney - ES

Rahul Nahar - ES

Ramesh Alagsen – ES

Ross Grady* - HR

Louis Ferretti - Proc

* IBM RTP Extreme Blue Lab Manager

Risk Rover (RR) uses: Watson Content Analytics, DB2

Cloud Managed Services (CMS)

Bluemix with Dev/Ops (Agile), Java, Cloudant

Social Media Analytics (SMA),

Twitter data on climatic events and

The Weather Company and US Navy: storm tracking

An Extreme Blue™ Project: May – Aug, 2015

covered by the Smarter Innovation fundRR API available at end of project

Extreme Blue Developers

• BS Computer Science from Texas A&M, architecture and maps.• BS Computer Eng. from Syracuse, strong Java specialist.• MS Carnegie Mellon, Machine Learning, BS CS from Oregon State.• BS USMA at West Point, MBA at Fuqua/Duke. Global Logistics.

Executive Sponsors

• Tim Humphrey• Josie Romualdi• Mike Meaden• Bob Murphy

Risk Rover

Risk Rover using Watson Content Analytics (WCA)

• Project funded via IBM internal Venture Captial

• Sole Supply Chain Project nominated in 2015 for Extreme Blue™

• Extreme Blue™ is IBM's incubator for new Talent and Technology

• Analyse Climatic Risk Events using WCA utilizing

– Social Listing

– Analytics & Big Data

– Mobile

– Cloud

• Top Talent Developers selected to support 12 week event

• IBM Risk Team consists of technical and business mentors

• Project’s 3 Objectives

– Minimum - Proof of Concept Validation

– Target - Expand to additional predictive analytics

– Stretch - Expanded into Watson Q&A type insights

Risk Rover

The Vision with Risk Rover on Watson

Social Listening Tool

US NavyWeather forecasts

Watson Content Analytics

Identify, Predict Assess Events that impact IBM

Event

Geo Spatial Mapping of eventto IBM Supply Chain

Social Media Analytics Text Analytics Visualization

Big Data

Supply Chain

Droughts

Strikes

Protests

Epidemics

Storms

Conflict

Floods

Today: How do we monitor threats to our global supply chain?

Manual Event Monitoring• Costly• Time Consuming• Lacks Precision• Not Standardized

APIAlerts

TSC

The Interface

22

Executive Interest and Support

Vice President and Controller –

In response to the IBM Board of Directors Audit Committee Meeting, acknowledged our current work is the

right strategy and vision. “The Data Analytics presentation was very well received by the Audit Committee. I walked

them through our strategy, … and wrapped up by outlining the impact of Analytics on the Enterprise Risk Map. The

Audit Committee was very engaged throughout the presentation and acknowledged that this was the right strategy

and vision”

IBM Vice President & Chief Risk Officer --

“I personally reference the tool internally and externally as a prime example of IBM's use of Analytics to support

risk management initiatives which clearly underscores our thought leadership in this area. ”

IBM Corporate Office, Director, Global Risk and Insurance Management –

“This tool has been a huge differentiator for IBM when we present our risk profile to the property insurance

underwriting community. Business Interruption and Contingent Business Interruption are ever expanding exposures

to an organization and not only can impact income to the organization but also our ability to meet our commitments

to our customers.”

IBM VP & Chief Procurement Officer –

“Managing and reducing risk in the supply chain … will be key to IBM’s global growth in the future”

Corporate-wide Supply Chain Risk Assessment - viewed as the right

strategy and vision, key to global growth and a differentiator

• Risk management is a fundamental building block to a supply chain strategy

• Supply Chain Leaders are integrating process controls in their logistics and operations, supplier compliance programs and planning process

• Procurement can deliver true value using an intelligent and comprehensive risk assessment program with suppliers

• A strong supplier / supply chain risk management program, can - demonstrate to clients that IBM can be a reliable supplier, and- be a key factor in preserving and growing revenue- be featured to insurance underwriters as rationale for reduced premiums

• Objective of these processes is not to eliminate risk- without risk there is no progress- instead it is to ensure we can manage and mitigate risks

• “Managing and reducing risk in the supply chain … will be key to IBM’s global growth in the future”

- John Paterson, (former) IBM VP & CPO

Supplier / Supply Chain Risk Management

– Key Takeaways

THANK YOU

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Slides will be available post event.