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Evolving Beyond Modern Portfolio Theory
How Higher Impact Portfolios Can Outperform
Traditional Investing
June 25, 2014
HIP = Human Impact + Profit
HIP
Solve Human Needs (Do Good)
Seek Higher Profits (Make Money)
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 2
HIP = Human Impact + Profit
HIP
Solve Human Needs (Do Good)
Seek Higher Profits (Make Money)
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 3
HIP = Higher Impact Portfolios
HIP Investor Serves Investors, 401-k’s and Advisors
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 4
1. RATINGS on 7000+ investments + funds:
Research, analyze & score
4500 Corporate equities (80% of global value),
Corporate bonds ($24 Trillion),
2500+ muni bonds (half of $3.7 Trillion),
treasuries & agency bonds on
Future Risk & Upside Potential
2. SUBADVISE: Advisors, 401-k plans,
& fund managers seeking to be more HIP
3. ADVISE: License HIP investment indexes
and manage investable portfolios (including
FOSSIL-FREE)
Your HIP Guides for Today’s Discussion
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 5
Shilpa Andalkar
SVP, Client
Solutions
Architects &
advises portfolios
Keith Green
SVP, Clients &
Partnerships
Alum of Citi,
Merrill Lynch
R. Paul Herman
Chief Investment
Officer and CEO
Int’l expert in
impact investing
Special Guest: Fund Manager
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 6
Garvin Jabusch
Fund Manager: NEXTX
Shelton “Green Alpha” Fund
Alum of Morgan Stanley;
Thunderbird MBA
Disclosure and Disclaimers
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 7
HIP Investor Ratings LLC is a California limited liability
company, providing 7000 ratings for investors, advisers,
fund managers and retirement plans.
Shilpa Andalkar and R. Paul Herman are registered
representatives of HIP Investor Inc., an investment
adviser registered in the States of California,
Washington, and Illinois, with clients across the USA.
This is not an offer of securities. All investing has risks.
Past results are not indicative of future performance.
Today’s Agenda: How Higher Impact Portfolios Can Outperform
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 8
1. Finance Foundations: Strong or Shaky?
2. The New Fundamentals of Investing
3. Evolving Into a Higher-Impact Portfolio
Today’s Agenda: How Higher Impact Portfolios Can Outperform
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 9
1. Finance Foundations: Strong or Shaky?
2. The New Fundamentals of Investing
3. Evolving Into a Higher-Impact Portfolio
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 10
The Best of 1952
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 11
“State of the Art” THEN
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 12
“State of the Art” NOW
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 13
Dr. Harry Markowitz
• 1952: Created “Modern Portfolio Theory” (MPT)
• 1990: Awarded Nobel Prize for MPT
• 2014: MPT is 62 years old: time to retire MPT?
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 14
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 15
Every Portfolio Has a Risk & Return Profile
Source: Smart401k.com
Optimizing a Portfolio: Stocks + Bonds Together Can Lower Risk
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 16 Source: SigmaInvesting.com
Nobel-Prize Winning Financial Theories Embed Assumptions
• “The markets are efficient”
• “All information is built into the prices immediately”
• “You cannot outperform the market”
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 17
BUT… • “The markets are
frequently IN-efficient”
• “All information is NOT built into the prices immediately”
• “Portfolios can outperform the market”
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 18
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 19
“Does the Stock Market Fully
Value Intangibles?
* * *
Employee Satisfaction and
Equity Prices”
Dr. Alex Edmans
Wharton School
Investing in “100 Best” to Work For Can Beat the Market (1998-2010)
Source: Russell Investment Group, via
© Great Places To Work® Institute
1998-2010, ANNUALIZED RETURNS
+11.1%
+6.7%
+ 3.9% + 4.3%
© 2006-2013 HIP Investor Inc. 20
Globally, Firms with More Diverse Boards Have Yielded Higher Return on Equity (ROE)
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 21 Source: Credit Suisse
25% to 50% of Mutual Funds (Active Stock Picking) Can Beat a Benchmark (Index)
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 22 Source: Lipper; Felix Salmon
More than 25% (1 in 4) generally
Less than 50% (2 in 4) generally
What’s My Exposure? Forward-Looking Investors + Advisors
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 23
Lara Coviello MA CFA
Managing Partner at Auctus
Wealth Management
Author of feature on investing
Jennifer Anderson, MPH, SCSP
Principal at Resonate,
Strategic Sustainability Management
Sustainable Cleaner-Energy Funds Have Outperformed
Many Fossil-Fuel Intensive Funds, Over 5 Years
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 24
Sustainable Cleaner-Energy Funds Have Outperformed
Many Fossil-Fuel Intensive Funds, Over 5 Years
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 25
Less Risk
Mo
re Retu
rn
Long-Term, Intelligent Investors Invest Across All Asset Classes
A Higher Impact Portfolio
Cash
Banks and credit unions that focus on sustainability e.g. 22 banks in the GABV
Fixed income
Bonds from impact-focused
corporates and Muni’s
(schools, hospitals) e.g.
SNW Asset Mgmt
Income Generating
Appreciation
Real Estate Investment
Trusts (REITs) who
implement resource efficiency
Equities
Individual firms , mutual funds and ETFs based in OECD
– rated on sustainability
International and
Emerging
Firms, funds ETFs – in emerging
growth areas: Europe, Asia,
Africa, Americas –
rated by impact
Venture Capital and
Private Equity
Ventures, angel funds, VC, private
equity –seeking impact
results
Alternatives
Commodity funds that
may include impact criteria
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 26
In 2013, a HIP-Focused PORTFOLIO Was More Optimal: Lowering RISK, Beating the RETURNS of MPT
Less Risk
Mo
re Retu
rn
* For annualized time period over the past 1 year ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
PORTFOLIO: color of bubbles:
Green = HIP
Red = Vanguard
Blue = Going Fossil Free
Gray = MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 27
1-Year Portfolio Performance (2013) HIP 24, HIP 10, MPT
18%
7%
2.5%
10%
14%
8%
1.8%
6%
11% 10%
1.1% 0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Return Risk Sharpe Alpha
HIP24 HIP10 MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 28
1-Year Portfolio Performance (2013) HIP 24, HIP 10, MPT
18%
7%
2.5%
10%
14%
8%
1.8%
6%
11% 10%
1.1% 0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Return Risk Sharpe Alpha
HIP24 HIP10 MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 29
Less Risk M
ore
Retu
rn
Over 3 Years (2011-13), a HIP-Focused PORTFOLIO Was Also More Optimal: Lowering RISK Yet Exceeding MPT RETURNS
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 30
Less Risk
Mo
re Retu
rn
* For annualized time period over the past 3 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
PORTFOLIO: color of bubbles:
Green = HIP
Red = Vanguard
Blue = Going Fossil Free
Gray = MPT
3-Year Portfolio Performance (2011-2013) HIP 24, HIP 10, MPT
11% 11%
0.9%
3%
10%
12%
0.9%
2%
9%
13%
0.7% 0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Return Risk Sharpe Alpha
HIP24 HIP10 MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 31
3-Year Portfolio Performance (2011-2013) HIP 24, HIP 10, MPT
11% 11%
0.9%
3%
10%
12%
0.9%
2%
9%
13%
0.7% 0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Return Risk Sharpe Alpha
HIP24 HIP10 MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 32
Less Risk M
ore
Retu
rn
Over 5 Years (2009-13), a HIP-Focused PORTFOLIO Proportionally Reduced RISK & RETURN vs. MPT
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 33
Less Risk
Higher Risk-Adj. Return
Higher Return
* For annualized time period over the past 5 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
PORTFOLIO: color of bubbles:
Green = HIP
Red = Vanguard
Blue = Going Fossil Free
Gray = MPT
HIP-Focused Portfolios Designed to Be More “Fossil-Free” than the “Efficient Market”
Portfolio Metric HIP 24 HIP 10 Vanguard 2025 Fund
MPT
TONS CO2 of Fossil Fuel Reserves*
731.08 2,669.14 5,179.99 7,306.48
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 34
7,306
5,180
2,669
731
0 2,500 5,000 7,500
MPT
Vanguard 2025 Fund
HIP 10
HIP 24
Tons of CO2 * Fossil Fuel Reserves of Top 200 fossil-fuel
producers; defined by Carbon Tracker
Initiative, in concert with 350.org, and applied
by HIP Investor to portfolio exposure
How to Go Fossil-Free? Forward-Looking Investors
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 35
Author of feature on “Going Fossil Free” investing – and aligning
NGO endowment portfolio with your organization’s mission
Dr. Onnie Byers, PhD
Chair, Conservation Breeding Specialist Group (CBSG)
Part of the Global Conservation Network (GCN)
Today’s Agenda: How Higher Impact Portfolios Can Outperform
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 36
1. Finance Foundations: Strong or Shaky?
2. The New Fundamentals of Investing
3. Evolving Into a Higher-Impact Portfolio
Today, Investors Drive with 20% Visibility
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 37
80% of Market Value = Intangible
www.AgeOfVolatility.com
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 38
83% 68% 32% 20% 20%
17%
32%
68% 80% 80%
5 Key Drivers Can Measure Future Risk & Value Creation Potential
1. Customer Satisfaction
2. Employee Retention
3. Carbon Efficiency
4. Board Diversity
5. Legal Exposure
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 39
HIP’s Ratings Quantify & Measure the 80% that Is Ignored by Many Investors
• Physical Health
• Mental Agility Health
• Income Growth
• Asset Accumulation Wealth
• Carbon Neutrality
• Reusable Products Earth
• Gender Balance
• Ethnic Diversity Equality
• Transparent & Open
• Credible & Ethical Trust
Companies innovate to answer five human needs:
Innovative Products + Services
Inspired People + Teamwork
Increased Profits + Returns
Improved Planet + Society
Which can result in sustainable, profitable growth for all stakeholders:
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 40
Health
Wealth
Earth
Equality
Trust
HIP’s Factors Connect Directly to Cash Flow, Profit and Shareholder Value
Products
& Services
Operating
Metrics
Mgmt
Practices
I
M
P
A
C
T
“How HIP Is This Investment?”
HIP = Human Impact + Profit
Strategic Innovation &
Risk Mitigation
Higher Revenue potential
Lower Cost
potential
Category Segment
Growth
Segment
Share
Food 22% 2.5%
Electricity 17% 2%
Fuels 20% 2.6%
Health Care 17% >1%
Building
Products
23% 2.3%
Fiber
(Apparel)
50% 1%
Automotive 38% 2%
Fast GROWTH Markets Are
Gaining Share Across Industries
Source: Pegasus Capital CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 42
Category Market Size
(U.S. $Bil)
Sustainabili
ty Segment
Segment
Growth
Segment
Share
Food $550 Bil Organic 22% 2.5%
Electricity 400 Bil Renewable (excl. Hydro, Wood)
17% 2%
Fuels 1,000 Bil Alternative 20% 2.6%
Health Care 2,300 Bil CAM* 17% >1%
Building
Products
98 Bil Green 23% 2.3%
Fiber
(Apparel)
0.3 Bil Organic 50% 1%
Automotive 228 Bil Hybrids 38% 2%
Positive-Impact products are producing the FASTEST GROWTH categories across all sectors
Source: Pegasus Capital
* Complementary & Alternative Medicine CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 43
If People are the “Most Important Asset,” Where are People on the Financials?
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 44
Human Capital
People = Assets
The Gap in GAAP
People = Expenses
• HIP Ratings reveal Drivers of possible Higher Returns:
+ 5% to 33% premium
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 45
• HIP Ratings reveal Drivers of possible Higher Returns:
+ 5% to 33% premium
+with Lower Risk
– 10% less volatility
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 46
• HIP Ratings reveal Drivers of possible Higher Returns:
+ 5% to 33% premium
+with Lower Risk
– 10% less volatility
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 47
HIP Ratings cover $69 Trillion Mkt Value
HIP Investor Ratings
Are the GPS for Your Portfolio
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 48
HIP Investor Ratings
Are the GPS for Your Portfolio
And 401-k Plan CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 49
Millennials as Future Leaders: #1 Purpose of Business
Is Building a Better World
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 50
• 80 million Millennials in USA
• Inheriting $40 Trillion from Boomers
A Millennial View on Investing
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 51
“If I don’t know how sustainable this investment fund is, I am not going to invest”
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 52
Including Sustainability Ratings in 401(k) Plans Can Increase Employee Engagement + Education
14%
93%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Before HIP Info *With* HIP Ratings
Participation Rate in 401(k) Plan
US Average = 76% to 88%
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 53
Sustainable Firms Are Aligning their 401-k Plans with their Business Goals + Employees
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 54
“We already see high-energy commitment and motivation
towards integrating sustainability into our 401(k), and team
members are excited to have the opportunity to advance
sustainability in their own portfolios in parity with the value that
they deliver to our clients every day.”
-- Burke Pemberton, Controller
Today’s Agenda: How Higher Impact Portfolios Can Outperform
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 55
1. Finance Foundations: Strong or Shaky?
2. The New Fundamentals of Investing
3. Evolving Into a Higher-Impact Portfolio
At Most, 1 in 4 Fund Managers Apply these “New Fundamentals” to their Investing
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 56
Source: Mercer ratings
Special Guest: Fund Manager
© 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 57
Garvin Jabusch
Fund Manager: NEXTX
Shelton Green Alpha
Alum of Morgan Stanley;
Thunderbird MBA
Ariel Appreciation Investor
DFA Five-Year Global Fixed-Income I
iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond
iShares International Dev Rel Est
KKR & Co LP
2 INDEXES + Shelton Green Alpha
Pax World High Yield Bond Individual Inv
Pax World Global Envrnmntl Mkts Indv Inv
iShares Morningstar Small-Cap
Guggenheim Timber ETF
Pope Resources LP
First Trust S&P REIT Idx
Parnassus Fixed-Income
Pax World Small CapIndividual Inv
Parnassus Workplace
Calvert Global Alternative Energy A
Calvert Global Water A
iShares S&P 100
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares
RidgeWorth US Gov Sec Ultra-Short Bd I
iShares TIPS Bond
Praxis Intermediate Income A
Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
From 2011 to 2013, Many Funds in the HIP 24 Portfolio Realized Returns At or Above their Risk Level
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 58
* For annualized time period over the past 3 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
IMPACT: color of bubbles:
Green = higher IMPACT
Yellow = medium IMPACT
Red = lower IMPACT
ALLOCATION: size of bubbles
is percent (%) allocated to fund
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Div
TIAA-CREF Social Choice Eq Retail
2 INDEXES + TIAA-CREF Social Choice Bond Retail
Vanguard Small Cap ETF
Vanguard REIT Index ETF
Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF
Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF
Templeton Frontier Markets A
Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index
Pax World High Yield Bond Individual Inv
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
From 2011 to 2013, Several Funds in the HIP 10 Portfolio Performed Strongly
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 59
* For annualized time period over the past 3 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
IMPACT: color of bubbles:
Green = higher IMPACT
Yellow = medium IMPACT
Red = lower IMPACT
ALLOCATION: size of bubbles
is percent (%) allocated to fund
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
Vanguard Total Bond Market II Idx Inv
2 INDEXES + Vanguard Total Intl Bd Idx Investor
Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
From 2011-2013, the Funds Inside the Vanguard 2025 Target-Date Portfolio Delivered Returns Close to their Risk Level
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 60
* For annualized time period over the past 3 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
IMPACT: color of bubbles:
Green = higher IMPACT
Yellow = medium IMPACT
Red = lower IMPACT
ALLOCATION: size of bubbles
is percent (%) allocated to fund
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
Vanguard Dividend Apprec Idx ETF
Vanguard REIT Index ETF
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
From 2011 to 2013, Funds with Higher Risk in the MPT Portfolio Did Not Deliver the Expected Returns
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 61
* For annualized time period over the past 3 years ending December 31, 2013 (or for data since inception of strategy)
IMPACT: color of bubbles:
Green = higher IMPACT
Yellow = medium IMPACT
Red = lower IMPACT
ALLOCATION: size of bubbles
is percent (%) allocated to fund
RISK: Standard
Deviation of Returns*
RETURNS:
Annualized
Returns*
How HIP Can Help Your Portfolio, 401-k or Advisor
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 62
1. RATINGS on 7000+ investments + funds:
Research, analyze & score
4500 Corporate equities (80% of global value),
Corporate bonds ($24 Trillion),
2500+ muni bonds (half of $3.7 Trillion),
treasuries & agency bonds on
Future Risk & Upside Potential
2. SUBADVISE: Advisors, 401-k plans,
& fund managers seeking to be more HIP
3. ADVISE: License HIP investment indexes
and manage investable portfolios (including
FOSSIL-FREE)
How to Contact HIP
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 63
Shilpa Andalkar Senior Vice President
[email protected] Direct: 415-857-2520
Keith Green
Senior Vice President
[email protected] Direct: 908-878-2144
R. Paul Herman CEO [email protected] Direct: 415-902-7741
Join SB’s NEW METRICS in Boston
September 24-26, 2014
• APPENDIX + DETAILS
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 64
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 65
Published 2010 (John Wiley & Sons)
Bestseller List
21 University +
MBA Curricula
Global Libraries
on 5 Continents
1 Year (2013) Summary
Portfolio Criteria HIP 24 HIP 10 Vanguard 2025 Fund
MPT
TOTAL RETURN (trailing; annualized)
17.58% 14.19% 14.44% 10.74%
Projected Forward YIELD
1.86% 1.96% 1.87% 2.95%
RISK (annualized std deviation)
7.06% 8.10% 6.73% 9.59%
Alpha (to S&P500) -2.05% -8.40% -4.47% -12.57%
Alpha (to MPT) +10.26% +5.72% +7.26% 0
Beta (to S&P500) 0.75 0.87 0.73 0.90
Beta (to MPT) 0.68 0.79 0.67 1.00
Sharpe 2.49 1.75 2.14 1.12
FUND FEES: Expense Ratio (prospectus)
0.88% 0.53% 0.17% 0.13% CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 66
3 Year (2011-2013) Summary
Portfolio Criteria HIP 24 HIP 10 Vanguard 2025 Fund
MPT
TOTAL RETURN (trailing; annualized)
10.52% 10.11% 9.58% 8.90%
Projected Forward YIELD
1.86% 1.96% 1.87% 2.95%
RISK (annualized std deviation)
11.29% 11.57% 9.63% 13.03%
Alpha (to S&P500) -3.09% -3.74% -2.24% -6.36%
Alpha (to MPT) +3.02% +2.37% +3.12% 0
Beta (to S&P500) 0.89 0.91 0.77 1.00
Beta (to MPT) 0.84 0.87 0.73 1.00
Sharpe 0.93 0.87 0.99 0.68
FUND FEES: Expense Ratio (prospectus)
0.88% 0.53% 0.17% 0.13% CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 67
5 Year (2009-2013) Summary
Portfolio Criteria HIP 24 HIP 10 Vanguard 2025 Fund
MPT
TOTAL RETURN (trailing; annualized)
17.18% 18.74% 15.33% 17.73%
Projected Forward YIELD
1.86% 1.96% 1.87% 2.95%
RISK (annualized std deviation)
13.97% 14.74% 12.72% 17.15%
Alpha (to S&P500) 0.23% 0.86% -0.57% -3.01%
Alpha (to MPT) +3.08% +3.77% +2.35% 0
Beta (to S&P500) 0.84 0.89 0.79 1.04
Beta (to MPT) 0.80 0.84 0.73 1.00
Sharpe 1.23 1.27 1.20 1.03
FUND FEES: Expense Ratio (prospectus)
0.88% 0.53% 0.17% 0.13% CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 68
In the HIP 24 Portfolio, Most Funds Have More than 5 Years of History
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 69
0.8
10
10
10
5.8
10
5.8
8.7
10
3.5
10
10
9.5
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.6
6.6
4.3
10
5.3
6.6
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Shelton Green Alpha
RidgeWorth US Gov Sec Ultra-Short Bd I
Praxis Intermediate Income A
Pope Resources LP
Pax World Small Cap Individual Inv
Pax World High Yield Bond Individual Inv
Pax World Global Envrnmntl Mkts Indv Inv
Parnassus Workplace
Parnassus Fixed-Income
KKR & Co LP
iShares TIPS Bond
iShares S&P 100
iShares Morningstar Small-Cap
iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond
iShares International Dev Rel Est
Guggenheim Timber ETF
Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index
First Trust S&P REIT Idx
ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares
DFA Five-Year Global Fixed-Income I
Calvert Global Water A
Calvert Global Alternative Energy A
Ariel Appreciation Investor
Years
S&P Global Clean Energy TR USD
S&P Global Water TR
S&P GSCI Gold Spot
S&P United States REIT TR USD
S&P Global Water TR
S&P Global Timber and Forestry TR USD
S&P Global REIT TR USD
JPM EMBI Global TR USD
Morningstar Small Core TR USD
Cambridge Associates US Private Equity
US OE Large Growth (50%) and Russell 1000 Growth TR USD (50%)
US OE World Stock (33.3%), S&P 500 Sub/Environmental Services TR (33.3%), and MSCI ACWI NR USD (33.3%)
US OE Small Blend (50%) and Russell 2000 TR USD (50%)
S&P Global Clean Energy TR USD (50%) and Russell Mid Cap Growth TR USD (50%)
12/31/2013 12/31/2003
In the HIP 10 Portfolio, Most Funds Have More than 5 Years of History
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 70
6.2
9.9
9.3
9.9
3.2
10
1.3
5.2
10
6.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Div
Vanguard Small Cap ETF
Vanguard REIT Index ETF
Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF
Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF
TIAA-CREF Social Choice Eq Retail
TIAA-CREF Social Choice Bond Retail
Templeton Frontier Markets A
Pax World High Yield Bond Individual Inv
Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index
Years
S&P Global Water TR
US OE Diversified Emerging Mkts (50%) and MSCI EM NR USD (50%)
US OE Intermediate-Term Bond (50%) and Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD (50%)
S&P Global Ex US Property TR USD
CRSP US Mid Cap TR USD
MSCI US REIT GR USD
Russell 2000 TR USD
US ETF Diversified Emerging Mkts (50%) and MSCI EM NR USD (50%)
12/31/2013 12/31/2003
In the MPT Portfolio, ALL Funds Have More than 5 Years of History
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 71
10
9.3
8.8
6.4
7.7
6.0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Vanguard REIT Index ETF
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
Vanguard Dividend Apprec Idx ETF
iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond
Years
JPM EMBI Global TR USD
NASDAQ US Broad Div Achievers TR USD
FTSE Developed ex North America NR USD
FTSE Emerging TR USD (50%) and FTSE Emerging PR USD (50%)
MSCI US REIT GR USD
12/31/2013 12/31/2003
The Vanguard 2025 Portfolio Combines 4 Index Funds,
One with Less than a Year of HIstory
CONFIDENTIAL © 2006-2014 HIP Investor Inc. 72
10
10
0.6
4.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv
Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv
Vanguard Total Intl Bd Idx Investor
Vanguard Total Bond Market II Idx Inv
Years
Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD
US OE World Bond (50%) and Citi WGBI NonUSD USD (50%)
12/31/2013 12/31/2003
How High Impact Portfolios Can Outperform:
Beating Traditional Investing, Wall Street and
Modern Portfolio Theory.
-- Garvin Jabusch 6.25.2014
Investing for the
Next Economy
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy Important Information
This presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment or other advice. This presentation does
not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any security. An offer may only be made by means of a private placement
memorandum, prospectus and/or other governing documents, which should be read in their entirety. This information is not intended to be
complete or final. The information in this document is confidential, proprietary and a trade secret of Green Alpha Advisors, and is intended only for
the use of the person to whom it is given and may not be reproduced or redistributed. The presentation document does not purport to contain all of
the information that may be required to evaluate a transaction and any recipient hereof should conduct its own independent analysis of the
company and the date contained or referred to herein. By acceptance of this presentation, you (and your employees and affiliates) agree not to
release or reveal it (or any of the information in it) to any third party and, upon request from Green Alpha Advisors, will return or destroy such
information and all copies thereof.
Some of the information presented herein constitutes “forward-looking information.” Forward-looking information is based on numerous
assumptions and is speculative in nature and may vary significantly from actual results. There can be no assurance that estimated values or
returns based on those values can be realized or that actual returns or results will not be materially lower than those stated in this
presentation. Certain assumptions have been made to simplify the presentation and, accordingly, actual results may differ, perhaps materially,
from those presented. In furnishing this presentation, Green Alpha Advisors reserves the right to amend or replace this presentation at any time,
but undertake no obligation to update, correct or supplement any information contained herein or to provide the recipient with access to any
additional information.
Performance data quoted represent past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results and current performance may be lower
or higher than the data quoted. All returns shown are total returns, net of fees unless otherwise noted. Investment returns and principal will
fluctuate with market and economic conditions and investors may have a gain or loss when you sell shares. Please refer to
www.greenalphaadvisors.com for more information.
The information in this presentation is intended to be current only as of the date of this presentation. For financial professional use only.
Green Alpha is a registered trademark of Green Alpha Advisors, LLC. SIERRA CLUB, the Sierra Club logos and “Explore, enjoy and protect the
planet.” are registered trademarks of the Sierra Club.
2
Restricted & Confidential
If two systems can’t coexist indefinitely, they won’t.
3
Legacy, Fossil Fuels Based Economics (BAU)
+ Economic Growth
+ Finite Planet
= Bad Quantum State
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy Next Economy™ Defined
4
Mega-Trend Thesis
As we look to the future we envision the Next Economy; one that is ecologically efficient,
helps mitigate climate change, promotes both energy security and national security and, importantly,
helps produce high quality, enduring job growth. Companies in Green Alpha portfolios are selected
because they are in some way working toward these goals.
The world is becoming warmer and more populous, and demands on resources like
water, arable land and clean air are increasing dramatically.
These trends are threatening the planet’s ecosystem and world economies.
Forward thinking companies around the world are innovating to address these global changes.
Those that succeed will help solve civilization’s greatest challenges and stand to profit handsomely.
By 'Next Economy’ we mean an innovation-driven, global economy that allows humans
to thrive on earth indefinitely.
Restricted & Confidential
…Green Alpha’s Approach
5
Innovation Drives Financial Performance
• All-cap, multi-sector, global growth
• Environmentally conscious, financially pragmatic
• Driven by science, demography and innovation
• Fossil fuel free portfolios
• Bottom-up investment process built on fundamentals, value analysis and a mega-trend growth thesis
• Thesis Track Record Since 2008
“Sustainability is not a fad and it’s not a public relations exercise. It’s in the interest of
the business community to continue to innovate through technology and increased transparency.” 1
1 Sustainability Evolves from Fad to Force, CNBC editorial, June 30, 2009
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Shock & Awe
February 2014 was the 348th
consecutive month of above-
average global temperatures.3
6
2.6 billion people or 39 percent of the world’s population live without access to improved sanitation.2
Projections are that by 2025, two thirds of the world’s population could be living in severe water stress conditions.1
Over 90 percent probability
that human activities over the
past 250 years have warmed
our planet.7
The world has quietly
transitioned into a situation
where water, not land, has
emerged as the principal constraint
on expanding food supplies. 8
The cost of adapting to the
impacts of a 2°C rise in global
average temperature could
range from US$70 to $100
billion per year between 2020
and 2050, according to the
World Bank.6
“If the world waits until
2020 to take action on global
climate change, it will
undoubtedly
be too late.” -- International
Energy Agency (IEA)5
1. USAID Water and Development Strategy, p.1, 20132018 | 2. WHO / UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply and Sanitation, Update Report, 2013 | 3. NCDC STATE of the GLOBAL CLIMATE REPORT, National
Oceanic Atmospheric Agency | 4. WHO / UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply and Sanitation, Update Report, 2013 | 5. IEA Executive Director, Maria van der Hoeven, Press Conference, London | 6. World Water
Development Report, UNESCO, 2012 | 7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 | The Guardian, The real threat to our future is peak water, Lester Brown, 7/6/13
1 in 8 people world wide do
not have access to safe and
clean drinking water.4
Restricted & Confidential
Investment Process
Key solutions to warming, resource scarcity, extreme weather, rising sea levels and increasing population.
• Inexpensive, indefinitely renewed energy
• Waste-to-value economics (near perfect recycling)
• Careful management of scarce resources, like water and farmland
Companies that deliver solutions most efficiently and profitably.
• Observable high EPS growth
• Proven management skill and execution
• Areas of current or expected high demand
7
The most feasible, promising, fastest growing sectors.
• Solar: cheap and efficient; fastest growing energy type in the world
• Water management, treatment and creation
• Advanced materials
• Production and information efficiency gains
1. Innovation
3. Growth 2. Profitability
Macro Economics
Traditional, bottom up research paired with a compelling,
macro-economic growth thesis based on
scientific, demographic and climate trends.
1. Innovation 3. Growth
Portfolio Candidates
2. Profitability Next
Economy Companies
Restricted & Confidential 8
Next Economy Portfolio Construction
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy Next Economy Sector Map
9
The Next Economy must reflect the broad range of human needs and desires
• The Next Economy map
is an overlay of
sustainable principles
on traditional
investment sectors
• It reflects practical,
achievable and
innovative approaches
to population growth,
resource scarcity and
climate change
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy
Waste to Value
Adding recycled
materials back into the
value chain for high-end
consumer goods;
minimizing the need to
source from the planet.
Natural & Organic
Foods
Addressing strong
consumer demand in
developed countries,
population growth in
developing countries
and soil/water health.
Agriculture
Organic agriculture is a
key means of stabilizing
soil, managing water,
mitigating pesticide risk
and feeding a growing
population.
Transportation
Zero emissions
transportation and
capacity to store power
from renewable sources
are both key to
decarbonizing the
economy.
Water
Fresh water scarcity is
one of the primary
systemic risks for the
economy as well as a
leading cause of
political instability.
Next Economy Means All Sectors
Restricted & Confidential
Next Economy Means All Sectors
11
Sector Diversification
of the Green Alpha
Next Economy
Universe (3/31/14)
We seek
opportunities in
sustainability
solutions across all
parts of the economy
Currently 29 sectors
represented
Restricted & Confidential 12
Next Economy Portfolio Construction
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy NEXTX Accolades
13
Standout performance
Morningstar Rankings:
• #1 fund in Morningstar’s Large Growth category for Q2 2013
(1,821 funds)
• #1 fund in Mid Cap Growth category for Q4 2013
• Top 1% in Mid Cap Growth category 6 months ending 9/30/13,
12/31/13 and 3/31/14.
• Top 1% in Mid Cap Growth category for first full year (710
funds)
• Top 2% in Mid Cap Growth category for Q1 2014 (758 funds)
• 1-Year MStar Upside Capture Ratio: 149.96 (4/30/2014)
• 1-Year MStar Downside Capture Ratio: 69.71 (4/30/2014)
#1
Case Study and Fossil Free Thesis
Garvin Jabusch 6.10.2014
Investing for the
Next Economy
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy
Price of Installed
Solar Capacity
1977-2013
Texas: From Legacy to Next
Economy Fuel Powerhouse
The sunshine that falls on Texas in
ONE month contains more energy
than all of the oil that has ever been
pumped in the state.2
Wattage Capacity, Cash Rich
Solar Power Just a bit further “offshore”
1977,
$76.67/watt1
1 Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2014
2 http://www.sela.org/research-resources/solar-industry-data
3 The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability, Camilo Mora, Nature, October 10, 2013
2013, $0.46/watt
“We’re approaching irreversible warming as temperatures reach a ‘climate departure’
point from their historical averages” 3
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy Case Study Ticker: FSLR
EPS: $4.052
Div/Yield: -
Market Cap: $ 6.02 billion2
Next Economy Solar Energy: PV, thin film
Category:
Overview:
Vertically integrated capabilities improving every
aspect of the solar value chain. One of the largest
solar project pipelines in the world (currently
nearly 3GW contracted.)
Strongest balance sheet in the industry, >$1billion
in cash. Key partnerships with industry leaders like
General Electric and Berkshire Hathaway.
Market leader with virtual monopoly of advanced thin
film PV IP and production, having recently acquired
GE’s thin film tech division and patent portfolio.
FSLR $60.101 Trailing 12 month performance versus the S&P500
First Solar, Inc.
16 1Yahoo Finance, accessed 5/15/14 2Trailing 12 month numbers, Google Finance , accessed 5/15/14
Restricted & Confidential
Investing for the Next
Economy Transition to the NEXT ^Economy
17
Solar and Wind will make up 90% of the power supply by 2050
Avoiding fossil fuels is
not about divesting
• Green Alpha’s model of
an indefinitely thriving
economy by definition
precludes the idea of
investing in fossil fuels
since they clearly
cannot be civilization's
primary energy source
for much longer.
Jacobson, Mark Z., et al., “A Roadmap for Repowering California for all Purposes with Wind, Water, and Sunlight.” Stanford University. March 11, 2014
Restricted & Confidential 18
Our Belief Green Alpha is Fossil Fuel Free
For us, avoiding fossil fuels was never about divesting.
Rather, our model of what an indefinitely thriving economy
could look like by definition precluded the idea of investing in
fossil fuels since they clearly cannot be civilization's primary
energy source for much longer.
“We’re approaching irreversible warming as temperatures reach a ‘climate
departure’ point from their historical averages” 1
1 The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability, Camilo Mora, Nature, October 10, 2013
Restricted & Confidential 19
Next Economy Portfolio Construction. The Eco-Efficient Frontier.
Restricted & Confidential 20
Contact Information
Facebook facebook.com/Green
AlphaAdvisors
Twitter Twitter.com/AlphaV
erde
LinkedIn Linkedin.com/company/
green-alpha-advisors
4760 Walnut Street, Suite 106, Boulder, CO 80301
303 993 7856
Blog sierraclub.typepad.com/ga
a
How High Impact Portfolios Can Outperform:
Beating Traditional Investing, Wall Street and
Modern Portfolio Theory.
Garvin Jabusch 6.10.2014.
Investing for the
Next Economy