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Russian Market Report (business division of IndexBox Marketing Ltd., Moscow, Russia) is a leading Russian marketing and consultancy company, a well-known provider of consumer, retail, and wholesale market research information for a wide range of industries. For years of service, it has built an image of a loyal partner, a trustworthy source of information, and a specialist in its sphere. This has been achieved by very precise problem recognition and problem definition, appropriate research design, exact choice of research methods, state-of-the-art primary and secondary data collection, quantitative and qualitative research expertise, thorough and accurate analysis, and effective implementation.

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Page 1: Russia Bus Market

Barykovsky lane 4, building 2, office 201

Moscow, 119034

Phone number: +7 495 988 96 06

e-mail: [email protected] www.indexbox.ru

Demo-Version

Russia: Bus Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

March 2013

Marketing Research

Page 2: Russia Bus Market

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian bus market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian bus market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains 227 pages, 92 tables, and 108 figures.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Why People Choose Us

• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have

completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.

• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts

verify all secondary information used in the report.

• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of

the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

complete picture of the market of interest.

• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.

• We offer unique and individualized customer service:

o Personal account on the website with a personal manager;

o Monitoring of the status of your order online;

o Pre-sale specialist advice and answers to post-purchase questions.

• We offer special conditions for the actualization of our research reports. If interested,

find out about these conditions from our specialists now!

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian bus market and build a

forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Classification of buses

4. Structure of the bus park

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the bus park

4.2. Structure of the bus park by brands

4.3. Structure of the bus park by age

5. Characteristics of the Russian buses market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 -

2017

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian buses market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

5.2. Structure of the Russian buses market: production, exports, imports,

consumption, structure by classes

6. Characteristics of the domestic production of buses in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of buses in 2005 - March 2012

6.1.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of extra small class buses in 2005 -

2011

6.1.2. Volume and dynamics of the production of small class buses in 2005 - 2011

6.1.3. Volume and dynamics of the production of average class buses in 2005 -

2011

6.1.4. Volume and dynamics of the production of large class buses in 2005 - 2011

6.1.5. Volume and dynamics of the production of extra large class buses in 2005 -

2011

6.1.6. Volume and dynamics of the production of shift buses in 2005 - 2011

6.2. Structure of the production of buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

6.3. Manufacturing capacities and their level of loading

6.4. Main manufacturers of buses and their corresponding market shares

6.5. Characteristics of the manufacturers of buses

6.5.1. LLC “Automotive Factory “GAZ” (“Gorkovskiy Automotive Factory”) (Nizhniy

Novgorod)

6.5.2. LLC “Pavlovskiy Bus Factory” (Pavlovo, Nizhegorod Region)

6.5.3. LLC “Likinskiy Bus Factory” (Likino-Dulevo, Moscow Region)

6.5.4. LLC “Kurganskiy Bus Factory” (Kurgan)

6.5.5. OJSC “Automotive Factory Ural” (Miass)

6.5.6. OJSC “Golitsynskiy Bus Factory” (Golytsino, Odintsovskiy District, Moscow

Region)

6.5.7. OJSC “Ulyanovskiy Automotive Factory” (Ulyanovsk)

6.5.8. OJSC “Neftekhamskiy Automotive Factory” (Neftekhamsk, Republic of

Bashkortostan)

6.5.9. LLC PFK “Luidor” (Nizhniy Novgorod)

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

6.5.10. Group of companies “Irito” (Moscow Region)

6.5.11. LLC VAP “Volzhanin”

6.5.12. Other manufacturers

6.6. Investment projects in the industry

7. Characteristics of the prices of buses

7.1. Dynamics of the manufacturers’ prices of buses

8. Characteristics of the imports of buses to the Russian market

8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of buses in 2005 - 2011

8.2. Characteristics of the imports of new buses

8.2.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses

8.2.2. Manufacturing countries, importing new buses to the territory of the

Russian Federation

8.2.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the new buses, imported to the

Russian Federation

8.2.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of new buses

8.2.5. Structure of the imports of new buses by regions of the Russian Federation

8.3. Characteristics of the imports of used buses

8.3.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses

8.3.2. Manufacturing countries, importing used buses to the territory of the

Russian Federation

8.3.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the imported used buses, imported to

the Russian Federation

8.3.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of used buses

8.3.5. Structure of the imports of used buses by regions of the Russian Federation

9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of buses

9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of buses in 2005 - 2010

9.2. Characteristics of the Russian exports of new buses

9.2.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of new buses

9.2.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of new buses

9.2.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying new buses for exports

9.2.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of new buses

9.3. Characteristics of the Russian exports of used buses

9.3.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses

9.3.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of used buses

9.3.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying used buses for exports

10. Characteristics of the sales channels

11. Factors, influencing the development of the buses market

11.1. General condition of the industrial production

11.2. State of the passenger automible transportation

11.3. State of the auto leasing market

11.4. State of the auto crediting market

12. Characteristics of the consumption of buses

12.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of buses in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

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12.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of buses by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

12.3. Structure of the consumption of buses by classes in 2008 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

12.4. Balance between production and consumption of buses in 2008 - 2011 Forecast

until 2017

13. Forecast for the development of the buses market in 2012 - 2017

13.1. Evaluation of the development of the buses market after Russia’s accession to

the WTO

Appendix 1. Profiles of the leading manufacturers

LLC “GAZ”

LLC “LIAZ”

LLC “KAVZ”

LLC “PAZ”

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List of Tables

Table 1. Volume and dynamics of production, imports, exports, and consumption of buses in

2005 - 2017F

Table 2. Production of buses in January - March 2010, 2011 and 2012, in units

Table 3. Production of buses by classes in 2005 - 2011, in units

Table 4. Structure of the production of buses by classes in 2005 - 2011, in %

Table 5. Structure of the production of buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

in 2008 - 2011

Table 6. Usage of the annual average capacities for the production of buses in 2005 - 2009

by regions of the Russian Federation, in %

Table 7. Commissioning of manufacturing capacities for the production of buses in the

Russian Federation in 2002 - 2009, in thousands of units

Table 8. Volume of production of buses by Russian manufacturers in 2008 - 2011, in units

Table 9. Characteristics of investment projects

Table 10. Average manufacturers’ prices of buses in the Russian Federation in January 2008

- May 2011

Table 11. Imports of buses in 2005 - 2011

Table 12. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2010, in units

Table 13. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2010, in thousands of USD.

Table 14. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation in

2011, in units

Table 15. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2011, in thousands of USD.

Table 16. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing countries in 2010, in units

Table 17. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD.

Table 18. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing countries in 2011, in units

Table 19. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD.

Table 20. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing companies in 2010, in units

Table 21. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing companies in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 22. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing companies in 2011, in units

Table 23. Volume of the imports of new buses by manufacturing companies in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 24. Volume of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2010, in units

Table 25. Volume of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in units

Table 26. Volume of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 27. Volume of the imports of new buses by recipient regions of the Russian Federation

in 2010, in units

Table 28. Volume of the imports of new buses by recipient regions of the Russian Federation

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

in 2010, in thousands of USD

Table 29. Volume of the imports of new buses by recipient regions of the Russian Federation

in 2010, in units

Table 30. Volume of the imports of new buses by recipient regions of the Russian Federation

in 2010, in thousands of USD

Table 31. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in units

Table 32. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Table 33. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2011, in units

Table 34. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 35. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing countries in 2010, in units

Table 36. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 37. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing countries in 2011, in units

Table 38. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 39. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing companies in 2010, in

units

Table 40. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing companies in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 41. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

units

Table 42. Volume of the imports of used buses by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 43. Volume of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2010, in units

Table 44. Volume of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in units

Table 45. Volume of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 46. Volume of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2010, in units

Table 48. Volume of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in units

Table 50. Volume and dynamics of the exports of new buses in 2010, in units and in %

Table 51. Volume and dynamics of the exports of new buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Table 52. Volume and dynamics of the exports of new buses in 20111, in units

Table 53. Volume and dynamics of the exports of new buses in 2011, in thousands of USD

Table 54. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

units

Table 55. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 56. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

units

Table 57. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

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Market Research Russia: Bus Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

thousands of USD

Table 58. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in units

Table 59. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in thousands of USD

Table 60. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in units

Table 61. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of USD

Table 62. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2010, in units

Table 63. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 64. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2011, in units

and in %

Table 65. Volume of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 66. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2010, in units

Table 67. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2010, in thousands

of USD

Table 68. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2011, in units

Table 69. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2011, in thousands

of USD

Table 70. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

units

Table 71. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Table 72. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

units

Table 73. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Table 74. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in units

Table 75. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in thousands of USD

Table 76. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in units

Table 77. Volume of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of USD

Table 78. Volume of the sales of new imported buses in 2010 and 2011

Table 79. Index of industrial manufacturing in 2000 - 2010, in %, to the previous year

Table 80. Number of public usage buses in 2005 - 2008, in units

Table 81. Supply of public usage buses to the population per 100 000 people, in units

Table 82. Passenger traffic in public buses in 2005 - 2008, in millions of passenger-

kilometers

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Table 83. Results of the program Minregion in 2009 - 2010

Table 84. Value of the new signed contracts for buses leasing in 2005 - 2010, in millions of

RUR

Table 85. Imports and exports of new buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

in 2009 , in units

Table 86. Supply of buses in 2010 - 2011

Table 87. Consumption of buses in Russia by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

2008 - 2017F, in units

Table 88. Structure of the consumption of buses by classes in 2008 - 2017F, in %

Table 89. Structure of the consumption of buses by classes in 2008 - 2017F, in units

Table 90. Balance between production and consumption of buses in 2008 - 2017F, in units

Table 91. Forecast for the development of the buses market in 2010 - 2017F, in units

Table 92. Size of the import custom duties on buses on 1 January 2012 and forecast for its

change after Russia’s accession to the WTO

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List of Figures

Fig. 1. Structure of the bus park by classes in 2011, in %

Fig. 2. Structure of the bus park by brands in 2011, in %

Fig. 3. Structure of the bus park by age in 2011, in %

Fig. 4. Volume and dynamics of the Russian buses market in 2005 - 2017F, in units and in

%

Fig. 5. Structure of the Russian buses market (production, exports, imports, consumption)

in 2008-2017F, in units

Fig. 6. Structure of the buses market by classes in 2008 - 2011, in %

Fig. 7. Structure of the buses market by age in 2000 - 2011, in %

Fig. 8. Structure of the buses market by price segment in 2000 - 2011, in %

Fig. 9. Structure of the buses market by origin in 2008 - 2011, in %

Fig. 10. Production of buses in 2005 - 2011, forecast until 2017, in units and in %

Fig. 11. Structure of the production of buses in 2005 - 2011 by classes, in %

Fig. 12. Volume and dynamics of production of extra small class buses in 2005 - 2011, in

units and in %

Fig. 13. Shares of the manufacturers in the extra small class in 2011, in %

Fig. 14. Volume and dynamics of production of small class buses in 2005 - 2011, in units

and in %

Fig. 15. Shares of the manufacturers in the small class buses in 2011, in %

Fig. 16. Volume and dynamics of production of average class buses in 2005 - 2011, in units

and in %

Fig. 17. Shares of the manufacturers in the average class buses in 2010, in %

Fig. 18. Volume and dynamics of production of large class buses in 2005 - 2011, in units

and in %

Fig. 19. Volume and dynamics of production of extra large class buses in 2005 - 2011, in

units and in %

Fig. 20. Shares of the manufacturers in the large and extra large class buses in 2011, in %

Fig. 21. Volume and dynamics of production of shift buses in 2005 - 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 22. Shares of the manufacturers in the shift class buses in 2011, in %

Fig. 23. Structure of the production of buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

in 2011, in %

Fig. 24. Structure of the production of buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation

in 2008 - 2011

Fig. 25. Annual average capacity of the manufacturing companies for the production of

buses in 2005 -2009, in units and in %

Fig. 26. Level of usage of the annual average manufacturing capacities for the production of

buses in 2005 - 2009, in %

Fig. 27. Shares of the Russian manufacturers in the volume of production of buses in 2009 -

2010, in %

Fig. 28. Structure of the production of buses in 2011, in %

Fig. 29. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of buses in the Russian Federation in

January - December 2010

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Fig. 30. Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of buses in the Russian Federation in

January-May 2011

Fig. 31. Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of buses in the Russian Federation

in January 2010 - May 2011, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the previous year

Fig. 32. Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of buses by Federal Districts of

the Russian Federation, в May 2011

Fig. 33. Volume and dynamics of the imports of buses in 2005 - 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 34. Structure of the imports of buses in 2005 - 2011, in units

Fig. 35. Structure of the imports of buses in 2005 - 2011, in %

Fig. 36. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 37. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 38. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 39. Volume and dynamics of the imports of new buses in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 40. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in units

Fig. 41. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 42. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2011, in units

Fig. 43. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2011, in thousands of USD.

Fig. 44. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2010, in units

Fig. 45. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2010, in thousands of USD.

Fig. 46. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011, in units

Fig. 47. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011, in thousands of USD.

Fig. 48. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 49. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 50. Structure of the imports of new buses by regions of the Russian Federation in 2010,

in %

Fig. 51. Structure of the imports of new buses by regions of the Russian Federation in 2010,

in %

Fig. 52. Structure of the imports of new buses by regions of the Russian Federation in 2011,

in %

Fig. 53. Structure of the imports of new buses by regions of the Russian Federation in 2011,

in thousands of USD and in %

Fig. 54. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 55. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 56. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in units and in %

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Fig. 57. Volume and dynamics of the imports of used buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 58. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 59. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 60. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 61. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

countries in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 62. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 63. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 64. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 65. Structure of the imports of used buses in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 66. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 67. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 68. Structure of the imports of new buses in the Russian Federation by importing

companies in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 69. Structure of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 70. Structure of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 71. Structure of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 72. Structure of the imports of used buses by recipient regions of the Russian

Federation in 2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 73. Volume and dynamics of the exports of buses in 2005 - 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 74. Dynamics of the Russian exports of new buses in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 75. Dynamics of the Russian exports of new buses in 2010, in thousands of USD and in

%

Fig. 76. Dynamics of the Russian exports of new buses in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 77. Dynamics of the Russian exports of new buses in 2011, in thousands of USD and in

%

Fig. 78. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

units and in %

Fig. 79. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 80. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

units and in %

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Fig. 81. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 82. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in units and in %

Fig. 83. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 84. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in units and in %

Fig. 85. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 86. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2010, in units

and in %

Fig. 87. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 88. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2011, in units

and in %

Fig. 89. Structure of the Russian exports of new buses by sending regions in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 90. Dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2010, in units and in %

Fig. 91. Dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 92. Dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2011, in units and in %

Fig. 93. Dynamics of the Russian exports of used buses in 2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 94. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

units and in %

Fig. 95. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2010, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 96. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

units and in %

Fig. 97. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by recipient countries in 2011, in

thousands of USD

Fig. 98. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in units and in %

Fig. 99. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2010, in thousands of USD

Fig. 100. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in units and in %

Fig. 101. Structure of the Russian exports of used buses by manufacturing companies in

2011, in thousands of USD

Fig. 102. Revenues from passenger transportation by automobile transport, in billions of

RUR

Fig. 103. Value of new signed contracts for leasing automobiles in 2003 - 2010, in billions of

RUR

Fig. 104. Value of the new signed contracts for leasing buses in 2005 - 2010, in millions of

RUR

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Fig. 105. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of buses in 2005-2017F, in units and in

%

Fig. 106. Consumption of buses by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2008 -

2017F, in %

Fig. 107. Structure of the consumption of buses by classes in 2008 - 2017F, in %

Fig. 108. Balance between production and consumption of buses in 2008 - 2017F, in units

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Executive Summary*

The volume of supply on the Russian bus market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is …%

higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of imported

products on the bus market was …%.

The volume of production of bus in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than the volume

of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all bus manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012 belongs

to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of bus in Russia amounted to … tons in physical terms and to …

thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of bus was … tons, which was equal to …

thousand USD in value terms.

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

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6. Characteristics of the Russian bus

market

...

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian bus market in 2007

- 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian bus market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is …%

higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of imported

products on the bus market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the bus market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for

2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)

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6.2. Structure of the bus market in Russia: production, exports,

imports, consumption

The volume of imports of bus in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the total market

volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the bus market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast

until 2017, in thousands of tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of

production In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of exports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

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Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the bus market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast

until 2017, in thousands of tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports

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7. Characteristics of the domestic

production of bus in Russia in 2007 -

2012

7.1 Volume and dynamics of bus production in 2007 - 2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Bus production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares

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Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 9 Bus production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in %, to the

previous year

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7.6 The main manufacturers of bus and their corresponding

market shares

The main manufacturers of bus in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B, and

Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were followed by Company

D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… tons - …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of tons

Manufacturer Region

Production

of bus, in

tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

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8. Characteristics of bus prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of bus

Manufacturers’ prices of bus have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in 2009 to …

RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their highest value

in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of bus in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical

period of the previous

year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).

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9. Characteristics of the imports of

bus to the Russian market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of bus

The volume of Russian imports of bus in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of bus was

imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

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Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

bus on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of bus (in physical terms) in 2011, with a

share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of bus in 2011. The second place was

taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of bus (a share of …%, respectively). In

the third place was Country C with a share of …%.

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Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons

Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the bus, imported to

the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of bus (in physical terms) in 2011, with a

share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of bus in 2011. The second place

was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of bus (a share of …%,

respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS

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Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of bus in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons

Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS

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10. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of bus 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of bus

The volume of Russian exports of bus in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of bus was

exported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of bus in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

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Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of bus in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of bus

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of bus was Country A. Its share

in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C (…%).

To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined share

of the other countries is …%.

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Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of bus by recipient countries in 2011 in

physical terms

Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of bus by recipient countries in 2011, in

tons

Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS

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12. Characteristics of consumption

of bus 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of bus in 2008 -

2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of bus in 2012 was … tons, which was …% more, compared to

2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of bus in recent years - a

decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in recent years was observed in 2009,

when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012, the consumption of

bus almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not yet possible to reach the pre-

crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of bus increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually. Thus, by

2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for bus in the country will be

met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …% of the market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of bus in the Russian Federation in 2008 –

2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

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12.2. Structure of consumption of bus by industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of bus are taken by Industry A (…%) and

Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry D

consumes about …% of the bus in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of bus by industries in 2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others

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12.3. Balance between production and consumption of bus

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of bus and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the bus

market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the bus market in

Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

20082009

20102011

20122013F

2014F2015F

2016F2017F

Consumption

Production

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About IndexBox "IndexBox" is a leading company in the sphere of marketing research and business

consulting. We carry out marketing research studies, prepare business plans, build business

models and consult on questions about marketing and sales.

Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies:

Marketing research

Our specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C and

B2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,

competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products and

services. Our competitive advantage is the formation of special research techniques to the

tasks of each project. System planning and operational monitoring of the industry, created a

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We are professionally engaged in developing business plans, feasibility studies, investment

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M & A. Business plans developed by IndexBox, contain a complete financial model for the

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which is permanently collected and analyzed for over 7 years. Documents comply with the

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We develop strategic development for brands, products, separate business units and

industry. Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communication

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