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Risk ManagementUniversity of Economics, Kraków, 2012
Tomasz Aleksandrowicz
market risk management
measuring market risk – value at risk (VaR)
measuring risk: value at risk
value at risk (VaR) (I)
• VAR is the maximum loss over a target horizon such that there is a low, pre-specified probability
that the actual loss will be larger• the answer to: 'How much money might I lose?‘• provides an estimate of the riskiness of a portfolio
based on statistical methodology to quantify potential financial loss
value at risk (VaR) (II)
• the most commonly used measure of market risk• useful because of its ability to distill a great deal of
information into a single number• based on probabilities and within parameters set by
the risk manager• based on one of several different methods
value at risk (VaR) (III)
• creates a distribution of potential outcomes at a specified confidence interval
• confidence intervals are typically 95, 97.5, or 99 percent
• time horizon might be 1 or more days• largest loss outcome using the confidence level as
the cut-off is the amount reported as value-at risk• an example using historical data method:
portfolio A return 10 years time ($m)2527 observations (trading days)
portfolio A return distribution
The maximum loss over one day is about $47m at the 95% confidence level
VaR examples:
• Q: $3m overnight VAR with 99% confidence level• A: the loss will be worst than $3m in on average 1
day out of 100• Q: 95% dialy VaR of $50m• A: 95 days out of 100 there should be lose no more
than $50 million
VaR issues
• VAR does not tell how big the loss might be on the 95th/97th/100th day
• it is based on historical correlations which can break down in times of market stress
• it is based on statistical assumptions - it is estimation• VAR can really only be used for marked-to-market
portfolios (revalued every day)• criticized as unable to forecast real value at risk as
well as its existence encouraged extensive investment 10
liquidity risk management
asset and funding liquidity riskLTCM collapse case-study
liquidity
• liquidity (accounting) - ability of a organization to pay his debts as and when they fall due
• liquidity (asset) - asset's ability to be sold with minimum price movement/loss of value
• liquidity risk is underestimated by many organizations
• loss of liquidity the reason for most bankruptcies or liquidations in the financial industry
liquidity risk
• it is less amenable to formal analysis than traditional market risk
• there is still no commonly accepted measurement / solution
• two types of liquidity risk:– asset liquidity (also called market/product liquidity risk)– funding liquidity risk (also called cash-flow risk)
• these two types of risk interact with each other
asset liquidity risk
• risk of loss due to an inability to sell an asset at expected value
• asset liquidity to be a crucial factor• can be managed by setting limits on certain markets
or products and by means of diversification
why an asset liquidity issue?
• asset might be too large in relation to the market and cannot be sold without moving it
• market might be unable to absorb an asset sale of that size
• asset may be so exotic/complex - attracts few buyers• asset might not be readily transferable without some
legal effort• asset might be restricted on convertibility, capital
withdrawal or regulatory approval
asset liquidity measurement
• tightness - which is a measure of the divergence between actual transaction pricesand quoted mid-market pricesdepth - which is a measure of the volume of trades possible without affectingprices too much (e.g. at the bid/offer prices), and is in contrast toresiliency - which is a measure of the speed at which price fluctuations from tradesare dissipated
• illiquid markets are those where transactions can quickly affect prices.
asset liquidity exercise
• $10,000 cash on bank account
• 3 month $20,000 deposit• 100 shares of Apple• 100 shares of • 10 US T-bond• option• OCT structure
asset liquidity management
• asset maturity profile management• portfolio credit quality mix (high/low quality assets)• aged assets management (long-term assets)• concentrated (large) positions monitoring
funding liquidity risk
• risk of loss due to an inability to fund assets, payments and other obligations when required– inability to rollover, or renew, maturing financing when
required– inability to access new funding when needed
• can be managed by proper– planning of cash-flow needs– by setting limits on cash flow gaps– by having a robust plan in place for raising fresh funds
• payables, short-term notes, repurchase agreements, commercial paper, deposits, long-term bonds, convertiblesecurities, bank loans
funding liquidity management
• liability maturity profile management• managing funding source concentration• credit rating changes awareness • using liquid collateral (adequate haircut)
Long Term Capital Managementmarket and liquidity risk
Long term capital management
• Long Term Capital Management fund• a hedge fund created by Salomon Brothers in 1994• hired two Nobel prize economist: Myron Scholes and Robert
C. Merton• using high leverage and complex investment strategies• has very good returns – on level of 40% annually
23
LTCM investment strategies
• fixed-income arbitrage – inefficiencies in the pricing of bonds– using derivatives as IRS (interest rate swaps), MBS (mortgage backed
securities) and forwards
• statistical arbitrage– a heavily quantitative and computational approach to equity trading– looking for statistical mispricing of one or more assets based on the
expected value of these assets
• pairs trading strategies– using temporary correlation changes between pair of stocks
• The problem: these strategies brings model risk and short term volatility risk 24
LTCM downturn (I)
• high profits brings huge money from investors interested in its share
• others start to use similar strategies for investment which decrease its efficiency
• fund closed for new investors in 1996• in 1997 huge dividend to remove unmanageable money from
the fund – but without closing • adequate risk positions• style drift from original investment methods
25
LTCM downturn (II)
• portfolio under pressure of markets after East Asian crisis (1997)
• returns down to -6,42% in May 1998 and -10,14% in June – total loss of $461m
• in Aug 1998 Russian financial crisis – default of the government put pressure on bonds market
• further losses $1,85b which forced liquidation of assets
26
LTCM performance
27
LTCM deal loss exampleRoyal Dutch Shell• Royall Dutch Shell – dual-listed at Euronext (Royal Dutch) and
LSE (Shell)• stock price premium of 8-10% observed at Royal Dutch• $2,3b invested: half in long position at Shell, half in short on
Royal Dutch• expectation was premium will be gone and 8-10% profit from
Royal Dutch re-purchase collected• strategy was cut by forced liquidation – Royal Dutch was re-
purchase under 22% premium• deal created $286m loss
28
LTCM downturn (III)
• company has performed a flight-to-liquidity• Sep 1998 LTCM's equity down from $2.3b to $400m• total liabilities still over $100 billion• this translated to an effective leverage ratio of more than
250:1• due to deals with almos all Wall St big players they there was
move to prevent fund form collapse
29
LTCM downturn (IV)
• 23 Sep 1998 Goldman Sachs, AIG and Warren Buffet offered $200m for acquisition (compared to $4.7b starting capital) - deal was not done,
• FED organized an bailout and injected $3.65b capital for operation form consortium of banks
• by 2000 fund was liquidated and and rescuers paid back• total loss estimated at $4.6b
30
LTCM lessons
• failures in:• 1. Model risk• 2. Breakdown in historical correlations• 3. The need for stress-testing• The value of disclosure 4. and transparency• 5. The danger of over-generous extension of• trading credit• 6. The woes of investing in star quality