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Risk management for the Agile world
Nik Silver for Agile Cambridge 2015http://niksilver.com
@pigsaw
This workshop• What’s in it for me?• A more constructive approach to
“risks”• Group exercises• From uncertainties to actions
What’s in it for me?
The risk registerDe
scrip
tion
Actio
n
Owne
r
A bad thing that might happen
Categories of action
Hardware will arrive too late
Order hardware in good time
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w.clipartbest.com
/clipart-dT8oGAATe
Do your job properly
Categories of action
Supplier insufficiently skilled
Supplier has been selected via rigorous process
http://ww
w.clipartbest.com
/clipart-dT8oGAATe
We’ve dealt with it
Categories of action
Loss of intellectual property
Contractual constraints
http://ww
w.clipartbest.com
/clipart-dT8oGAATe
Denial
How to look at risks* more constructively
* So-called “risks”
Two recent “risks”• Our boss might not like it• Our competitor releases in Germany
first
1. Flip it round• Risk… or opportunity?• Let’s be ready to exploit that• Let’s be open to doing better than
planned
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onkeycomedy.com
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issing-in-screenwriting/
1. Flip it round• Our boss might not like it–…or he might
• Our competitor releases in Germany first–…or we might
2. Find the variability• Look past the “risk event”• There are gradations of badness…
and goodness
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ithstyle.com/style-blog/page/15/
2. Find the variability• Our boss might not like it–…or he might slightly dislike it–…and he may change his mind next
week• Our competitor releases in Germany
first–…by one year, three months, 24
hours…?
3. Zoom out• It’s not a single, isolated thing• It’s got fuzzy edges• Zoom out to see the larger whole
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w.vpul.upenn.edu/alcohol/m
arijuana.php
3. Zoom out• The unhappy boss– Isn’t this really about… stakeholder
engagement?• Our competitor releases in Germany
first–What about features, pricing,
marketing…?–What about the next time?– Isn’t this really about… time to market?
“a risk”, “risks”
uncertaintyrisk
Warm-up exercise
Let’s rethink some so-called risks…
Warm-up exercise“Failure of client to pay fees”
US engineering company wants to provide water treatment facilities in
China
Warm-up exercise“Regulators decide to regulate VCs but the chosen regulatory approach fails”
European Banking Authority document on governance and
regulation of virtual currencies (VCs).
Warm-up exercise“The policy design for some aspects of the future organisation is incomplete. [...] So risk that Bill proceeds on the basis of incomplete/flawed design”
Leaked document on Andrew Lansley’s 2012 NHS reforms
Exercise• Look at the business case and risks• Turn each “risk” into an uncertainty– Flip it round– Find the variability– Zoom out. Isn’t this really about…?
From uncertainties to actions
The ideal: Change the way we operate
• Change the process• Change the environment
• Because that “risk” is part of a larger thing
• This requires imagination
Changing the way we operate• The unhappy boss– Continuous stakeholder engagement
• Our competitor releases in Germany first– Improve time to market, consistently
• Customer who might not pay on time– Incentivise early (or advance) payment
This is hard
Zooming out, finding themes
Summary• “A risk” à Uncertainty• Zoom out• Handle by changing the process
• Where next:– Matthew Leitch– Intelligent Internal Control and Risk Management– http://www.workinginuncertainty.co.uk
http://niksilver.com@pigsaw