Reg Adams - Artikol UK - Drivers of mineral sands growth

Informa MinSands, Melbourne, Mar 2016 1 , Reg Adams (ARTIKOL) 1

Double Rainbow over ClockHouse. © M.A. Adams, 2006

Reg Adams (ARTIKOL)

DRIVERS OF DEMAND

FOR TiO2 FEEDSTOCKS

by

Reg Adams (ARTIKOL, London)

Reg Adams (ARTIKOL) 2 Reg Adams (ARTIKOL) 2

ULTIMATE END-USER DEMAND DRIVERS

TiO2

Pigments

Milled Synrutile

Pigments

Titanium

Metal

Welding Rod

Coatings

Abrasives

Metallurgical Fluxes

& Refractory Linings

Paint Plastics

Paper Inks

Aircraft

Decorative

Laminates Sports

Equipt

Desalination &

Chemical Equipt

Food &

Pharma

Catalysts

Cosmetics

Rubber

Products Medical

Prosthetics

TITANIFEROUS (TiO2-containing) FEEDSTOCKS

Textiles Electronic

Equipt

Enamels

Social

Infrastructure:

Healthcare,

Education,

Leisure, etc

Transport

Infrastructure:

Road, Rail, Air, Sea,

Waterways Moving

Goods & People

Consumer

Goods &

Services

(inc Food &

Housing)

Businesses

Agri & Extractive

Manufacturing

Tertiary Sector

Public Safety

Law & Order,

Military, etc

Info &

Comms

Informa MinSands, Melbourne, Mar 2016


MAJOR RECENT EVENTS – TiO2 FEEDSTOCK 2013q2: Kenmare completes 50% expansion at Moma mine (Mozambique), raising

capacity to 1.2 mn tpa ilmenite + 22 ktpa rutile + 80 ktpa zircon.

2013q4: Base Resources opens Kwale mine (Kenya). Now producing up to 450 ktpa ilmenite + 84 ktpa rutile + 30 ktpa zircon. 2014q1: TiZir (MDL/Eramet) opens Diogo mine (Senegal), with target output at 575 ktpa

ilmenite + 17 ktpa rutile/leucoxene + 85 ktpa zircon. 2015q4: Converts Tyssedal (Norway) smelter to use Diogo ilmenite, raises capacity to 230 ktpa slag – chlorinatable, as well as sulfatable.

2015q2: Iluka resumes synrutile production after 22-month hiatus. Only one kiln (SR-2 at

Capel, WA) to run at full capacity (200 ktpa) throughout 2016.

2015q3: Rio Tinto shuts one of four RBM (South African) furnaces, reducing capacity by 25% to 810 ktpa slag.

AND THINGS THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN AFTER ALL (or not yet anyway) 2013q1: Rio Tinto abandons $US 4 bn ilmenite smelter project at Bécancour (Canada) &

suspends project to double ilmenite capacity in Madagascar to 1.5 mn tpa.

2014q3: Cristal “slagger” at Jazan (Saudi Arabia) originally due on-flow, but currently subject to indefinite delay pending repairs & rectification of technical issues.

2015q4: Iluka abandons bid to take over Kenmare (17 months after initial launch).



MAJOR RECENT EVENTS – TiO2 PIGMENT

2014/15: New chloride plants in China (Henan Billions, Yunnan Xinli & Luohe Xingmao) – 220 ktpa altogether. But capacity utilisation so far below 35%.

2014q4: Huntsman buys Rockwood assets, including two TiO2 plants in Germany & one in Finland. Divests TR-52 inks business to Henan Billions, but retains Pori-based inks business. 2015q3: Shuts Calais black-end & reduces capacity at Krefeld & Duisburg. Plans to separate TiO2 Pigments business by end-2016, by flotation, joint venture or outright sale.

2015q2: Tasnee (HQ in Riyadh) raises stake in Cristal from 66% to 79%. Buys

Jiangxi Tikon (70 ktpa sulfate-route at Fuzhou, China).

2015q2: Henan Billions agrees reverse takeover of Sichuan Lomon, but transaction not yet completed. Will become world’s 4th largest TiO2 pigment supplier, with 620 ktpa from plants at Jiaozuo (Henan), Mianzhu (Sichuan) & Xianyang-Nanzhang (Hubei), plus feedstock sources.

2015q3: Tronox idles lines at Kwinana (Australia) & Hamilton (US), reducing capacity by 15% to 400 ktpa.

2015q3: Chemours (TiO2 + fluoro + cyanide, etc.) floated off by DuPont. Shuts

EdgeMoor plant + a small unit at New Johnsonville (totalling 150 ktpa in the US), to be offset by start-up of second 200 ktpa line at Altamira (Mexico).


Informa MinSands, Melbourne, Mar 2016 Reg Adams (ARTIKOL) 5

TiO2 INDUSTRY FEATURES

TiO2 pigment: specialty chemical (many different grades) sold in commodity volume. Market currently worth around $US 15 bn.

Pure TiO2 produced by sulfate (SP) or chloride (CP) process, then milled & surface treated to make pigment (containing 80-98% TiO2).

Rutile grades (higher refractive index, but more abrasive) account for 85% of global demand. Made by SP & CP plants. Anatase grades made by SP plants, not by CP plants.

CP feedstocks are: natural rutile, synrutile, chemically upgraded & coarse-grained slags (>85%TiO2). Also ilmenite (>55% TiO2) - for Chemours only. SP feedstocks are: slags (>75% TiO2) & ilmenite (>45% TiO2).

Historically not much vertical integration within the industry – either upstream (feedstocks) or downstream (end-use sectors). But this is changing – recent moves by Tronox & Cristal and by PPG & AkzoNobel in China.

Usage of TiO2 is extremely widespread: over 170 countries each spend over $US 10,000 per year on TiO2 pigment.

TiO2 is non-recoverable from post-consumer waste, so this does not exert dampening influence on demand/price.

Reg Adams (ARTIKOL) 5


Paint, 3263

Ink, 188

Catalysts, 141

Plastic, 1508

Enamel, 65

Paper, 459

Other, 200

Textiles, 65

WORLD: TiO2 PIGMENTS CONSUMPTION by End-use Sector (2015 data)

Total World = 5.89 mn tonnes

Rutile: 85% Anatase: 15%


SCALE OF PIGMENT END-USE SECTORS Current (2015) World Production

7

Plastics

325 mn tonnes

Paint

45 mn tonnes

36 bn litres

Paper

400 mn tonnes

Printing Inks

2.5 mn tonnes

Rubber

30 mn tonnes

PIGMENTS


Architectural, 50

PowderCoatings, 10 GenIndustrial, 9

IndMtce &

Protective, 8

Wood, 7

Transport, 6

CoilCoatings, 3

Marine, 3 VehicleRefinish, 2

Packaging, 2

WORLD: PAINT PRODUCTION, 2015

by Market Sector (as % of total)

Total World = 45 mn tonnes


TRENDS IN THE PAINT INDUSTRY

TiO2 is used in most types of paint. Rutile grades usually preferred. Chloride grades preferred for automotive paints & “top-tier” applications. Higher TiO2 loadings in white paints. Coloured paints typically contain TiO2 (for hiding power) plus an organic pigment (high chroma, but poor hiding power).

TiO2 loadings in paint range from 50 grams/litre (4%) for matte up to 315 grams/litre (25%) for very high gloss. Some paintmakers (PPG et al) reduced TiO2 loadings in their paint formulations by 5-10% but have now reached the limits of thrifting. Impact on long-term paint product performance?

Ongoing trend away from organic solvents towards waterborne systems. Focus on paint’s role in making buildings more energy-efficient & on reducing fuel consumption for vehicles. Positive for TiO2 consumption.

Paint consumption increases with rising household dwelling space (more households, bigger dwellings) & non-residential building space, rising car ownership & living standards. Plenty of scope for increased per capita paint consumption in emerging markets – current levels (kilos per capita per year): India <2.0; China & Brazil 8-10; versus Northern Europe & North America 15-20.

Paint is mostly made in factories close to markets. Multinationals tend to favour FDI rather than exporting. Scope for more industry M&As.



Polyethylene, 34

Polypropylene, 20

Polyvinyl

Chloride,17

Polystyrene, 9

Polyurethane, 5

PET

(terephthalate), 5

ABS/SAN/ASA, 3

Other, 7

inc Polyamides, Polycarbonates,

PTFE, PEEK, POM, PSU & PPS

WORLD: PLASTICS PRODUCTION, 2015 by Polymer Type (as % of total)

Total World = 325 mn tonnes


TRENDS IN THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY

Polymer resins are intrinsically colourless. For some applications (windows, packaging film, medical tubing, etc) plastic products are ideally transparent or translucent. But for most other plastic products, the resin needs to be opacified & coloured for practical or aesthetic reasons.

Rutile TiO2 pigments usually preferred. Usually need silica/silane particle surface coating to protect the resin from UV degradation (which would be catalysed by TiO2).

Ongoing trend (since the 1950s) in plastics displacing other materials – wood, metals, glass, paper & board, leather, textiles, ceramics – in a wide variety of applications. Per capita plastics consumption rising faster than per capita GDP in all countries.

Suppliers of masterbatch – formulating blends of TiO2, fillers, pigments, additives in carrier resins – are now very prominent within the plastics value-chain. Essentially specialist intermediaries, facilitating mixing/dispersion & inventory management for the ultimate plastic product manufacturer.

Masterbatch plants often serve a wide geographical region (e.g. plants in Benelux serving most of the EU). Top 10 masterbatch companies account for about 40% of this sector’s global TiO2 consumption.



TRENDS IN THE PAPER INDUSTRY

TiO2 consumption for general papermaking has dropped substantially since the early 1990s, essentially due to alkaline processing systems replacing acidic systems & higher mineral/pulp ratios. These factors favour calcium carbonate (& kaolin) replacing TiO2.

TiO2 consumption in the paper industry now mainly focused on: a) coated folding boxboard for packaging & b) décor paper for decorative laminates.

For coated board, key criteria are: printability, opacity & smoothness. Rutile grades (as slurries) popular in the US, but anatase grades (lower opacity but also lower abrasivity) preferred by some papermakers.

Decorative laminate consists of décor paper for printed appearance (wood-grain, marble, tile effects, patterns or solid colour) plus melamine or urea/CH2O resin for surface protection. Used for worktops in clinics, catering & homes; also for flooring, wall panels, furniture, etc.

World market for décor paper now exceeds 1 mn tonnes, growing at >5% p.a.

Output – 40% China, 30% Germany, 20% Other EU, 10% Rest of World. Rutile grades exclusively used.

Schöller Technocell & Munksjö have long been market-leaders, but now increasingly challenged by Chinese & Polish suppliers.



TRENDS IN THE OTHER END-USE SECTORS

TiO2 consumption in the inks sector is around 190 ktpa, of which >90% for packaging inks (of which flexible packaging 56%, carton 18%). Rest is for publication inks, textile inks or security inks. Sulfate rutile grades preferred. Consumption of packaging inks growing faster than GDP.

Top 5 ink manufacturers – DIC/Sun, Flint, Toyo, Sakata & Siegwerk – account for 65% of global output. Limited scope for further M&A activity.

Specialty TiO2 grades (but with conventional pigment particle size, 200-300 nm) have been used in sunscreens to protect human skin since the 1970s. Nano grades of TiO2 (particle size <100 nm) launched in 1990s & now often used in skin-protective cosmetics. But TiO2 as a cosmetics ingredient has been demonised in the popular press following IARC (cancer research) status reclassification. World TiO2 consumption for cosmetics (now 50 ktpa) will probably decline.

About 140 ktpa of TiO2 currently used worldwide as a heterogenous catalyst. Anatase grades only. Specialty grades (250-350 nm) for making esters & amides. Nano TiO2 grades as denitration (deNOx) catalysts for cleaning-up emissions from diesel engines, incinerators & power stations. Also as photocatalysts for waste water treatment & for self-cleaning glass & ceramics. Strong potential growth in major Asian cities, assuming Govt commitment.



TRENDS IN THE TITANIUM METAL INDUSTRY

World titanium mill products consumption (Ti content) was 154 kt in 2015, of which: Industrial applications 77, Aerospace 57, Other 20. Assuming conversion ratio of 1.35 to cater for process losses & an average 25% scrap content in furnace-charge, this means world Ti sponge demand was 208 kt.

World Ti sponge output was 2015 kt in 2015, of which: China 95, Russia 42, Japan 30, US 20, Kazakhstan 10, Ukraine 8. Feedstock required was 376 kt (TiO2 units) – all chlorinated.

Aerospace: Ti metal & superalloys for airframes, jet engines & components. Boeing’s long-term (to 2031) growth forecast at 4% p.a. in passenger traffic, 5.2% p.a. in cargo traffic; average Ti buy-weight per aircraft to rise from 28 tonnes in 2011 to 42 tonnes in 2032. Comac (China) emerging as significant aircraft maker, but industry still dominated by Boeing & Airbus. For global aerospace usage of Ti metal, 2015 split was 82% civil, 18% military. Forecast at 84% civil, 16% military in 2025.

Industrial usage mainly for chemical & metallurgical process equipment, desalination & power plants. Strong growth especially in China, India & Middle East.

Consumer apps include sports equipment, bicycles, jewellery, watches, spectacle frames, cameras & binoculars. Medical apps include prostheses, blood-flow improvement devices & dentistry. Demand growth forecast at double GDP growth.

World Ti mill products consumption will rise to 340 kt in 2025, of which: Industrial 210, Aerospace 90, Other 40. Scrap content to fall to 18-20%, changing conversion factor to 1.40. Indicates world Ti sponge demand of 478 kt in 2025.

These forecasts ignore possible impact of new technologies promising substantial reduction in price of Ti metal such that it becomes a real competitor to Al metal in major applications.



Europe, 1170

CIS, 102

ME/Africa, 257

China, 1948

OthEastAsia, 485

CentSthAsia, 235

Aus/SEAsia, 313

NthAmerica, 950

LatAmerica, 430

WORLD: TiO2 PIGMENTS CONSUMPTION by Region (2015 data)



SHARE OF GLOBAL TiO2 PIGMENT DEMAND

vs SHARE OF GLOBAL GDP (2014 data)

16

34.1

19.4

3.2

4.1

7.2

4.3

16.1

1.3

10.3

16.6

17.1

6.8

4.4

8.7

10.7

17.4

3.3

15.1

China

EU

India

Japan

LatAmerica

ME+Africa

NthAmerica

Russia

Other

Share of Global TiO2 Pigment Demand & Share of Global GDP


UPHEAVALS IN THE MACRO BACKGROUND

New era of cheaper oil & gas. Crude oil in $US 50-70 range for next 3 years (maybe lower, maybe for longer). Vs $US 100-130 in 3½ years up to Aug 2014. Saudi Arabia vows not to reduce output to “stabilise price” in order to protect market share against non-OPEC suppliers (US shale, Russians, Brazilians, etc)

Collapse in commodity prices from Feb 2011 peaks. Prices now ($US/tonne): IronOre: $55 (vs $187). Copper: $5127 (vs $9880). Nickel: $10386 (vs $28412)

Slower than previously expected economic growth in China, Europe & Japan. Stronger & faster recovery in US economy, which may now be faltering.

Volatile currency exchange-rates. Stronger $US. Weaker Euro & Yen. Also, softer currencies for major commodity-exporters (Australia, Canada, SthAfrica)

Regional political upheavals* increase uncertainty of economic & business

forecasting. IMF revises forecast for world GDP growth (2015 vs 2014) from: 4.0% (Jan 2014) to 3.9% (Apl 2014) to 3.8% (Oct 2014) to 3.5% (Jan 2015) to 3.3% (Jly 2015) to 3.1% (Oct 2015). *Russian annexation of Crimea & hostile attitude towards Ukraine & Turkey; Spread of ISIS jihadi activity across Middle East & North Africa; Tensions between Saudi Arabia & Iran; China’s more assertive stance vis-à-vis neighbours; Dissension within EU over austerity, migration & internal border controls; Real threat of UK departure from EU.



0

500

1000

1500

2005 2010 2015

Aluminium

WORLD PRICES: COMMODITIES & MINERAL SANDS

INDEX, 2000 =100 (“dollars of the day”)

Iron Ore

Zircon

Rutile

Copper

Nickel

TiO2 Pigment


30

50

70

90

110

130

05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 15q1 16jf

CRUDE OIL PRICE: DATED BRENT CRUDE ($US per barrel, fob UK)

Prevailing-value “dollars of the day”


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

82 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25

Prevailing-value “dollars of the day”

World Bank Forecast,

29 Jan 2016

CRUDE OIL PRICE: TRIPLE COMPOSITE (Avge of Brent, Dubai & WTexas, $US per barrel)

Constant-value $US2015


USA, 4.5%

EU, 7.1%

Japan, 1.8%

China, 19.3%

India, 17.7%

Russia, 2.0%

LatAmerica, 8.5%

ME+Africa, 21.6%

Other, 17.5%

SHARE OF GLOBAL POPULATION by Country/Region (2014 data)


USA, 15.9%

EU, 17.1%

Japan, 4.4% China, 16.6%

India, 6.8%

Russia, 3.3%

LatAmerica, 8.7%

ME+Africa, 10.7%

Other, 16.6%

SHARE OF GLOBAL GDP by Country/Region (2014 data)


GDP GROWTH-RATES, 2013 to 2017 (At Constant Prices, % change year-on-year )

23

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

WORLD China EU India Japan Russia USA

DataSource: IMF, February 2016


MAJOR COUNTRIES GDP, 1995-2014-2020 (At Purchasing Power Parity, international G-K $US billion )

24

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

20000

22500

25000

27500

30000

Aus Braz China Fra Ger Ind Ita Jap Russ SAfr UK US

DataSource: IMF, October 2015


Europe, 1170

CIS, 102

ME/Africa, 257

China, 1948

OthEastAsia, 485

CentSthAsia, 235

Aus/SEAsia, 313

NthAmerica, 950

LatAmerica, 430

WORLD: TiO2 PIGMENTS CONSUMPTION by Region (2015 data)



15.7

10.8

10.6

7.7

7.1

6.1

3.6

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

17.5

2.4

2.1

2.3

1.2

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Chemours

Huntsman

Cristal

HenanBillions+Lomon

Kronos

Tronox

CNNC HuaYuan

Shandong Doguide

Ishihara Sangyo

Bluestar (Yuxing+Dahua)

Anhui Annada

GPRO (Nanjing+Xuzhou)

Lubei (ShandongJinhai)

Ningbo Xinfu

Shandong Dawn

Other Chinese

Other Japanese+Korean

Other EU

Ukrainian+Russian

Indian

WORLD EFFECTIVE CAPACITY, 2015 (% Share of Total, by Owner)

Total Capacity = 7.75 mn t.p.a.


TiO2 CAPACITY, BY REGION: SULFATE vs CHLORIDE

(End-year Capacity, 1975-1995-2015-2025)


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000Chloride

Sulfate

The Americas Europe (inc. CIS) China Rest of the World

‘000 t.p.a., TiO2 pigment


1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

WORLD TiO2 PIGMENT SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 tonnes, TiO2 pigment)

Potential Supply =

Effective Capacity

Demand =

Producer Shipments

DEMAND GROWTH: Average 3.8% p.a., 1975-2007. Then: 1.6% p.a., 2007-2015

FORECAST, 2015-2025: 4.1% p.a., to 8.825 mn by 2025.


Forecast


1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16

US TiO2 EXPORT PRICE ($US per tonne fob, IHCs 282300 & 320611 )


2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000 2005 2010 2015

US TiO2 PIGMENT PRICE (per tonne, in “Dollars of the Day” & in Constant $US2015 )

in Constant $US2015 per tonne

in $US at prevailing values per tonne

Average Market Price, standard rutile-grade pigment


2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Averages are for Trough-to-Peak & Peak-to-Trough

2012-15

Avge=3618

Avge=3000

US TiO2 PIGMENT PRICE ($US/tonne, constant-2015 dollars)

1999-2004 Avge=3184

1984-89

1973-76 Avge=3733

Avge=3840

Avge=3781

1989-97 1976-84

Avge=3715

1997-99

Avge=3474

2005,peak 3065

2005-09 Avge=2920

2009-12

Avge=3499

2015-21


Paint, 4720

Plastics, 2565

Paper, 705

Other sectors, 835

China, 3600

Europe + CIS, 1555

Other Asia/Pacfic, 1532

North America, 1220

ME + Africa, 318

THE WORLD IN 2025: TiO2 PIGMENT DEMAND by End-use & Region (‘000 tonnes, pigment)

Latin America, 600



Sulfate-route Processes,

3858

China, 3600

North & Latin America, 3023

Europe & CIS, 1681

Other Asia/Pacific, 1183

Middle East & Africa, 625

THE WORLD IN 2025: TiO2 PIGMENT CAPACITY by Process Type & Region (‘000 t.p.a., pigment)

Chloride-route Processes,

6065

Other Processes, 186

Total World = 10.1 mn t.p.a. Capacity utilisation = 87.3%


Pigments, Chloride,

2964

Pigments, Sulfate,

3355

Metal, 381

Welding-rods, 180

Other uses, 175

WORLD: TiO2 FEEDSTOCK DEMAND, 2015 by End-use (‘000 tonnes, TiO2 units)



Pigments, Chloride,

5698

Pigments, Sulfate,

3630

Pigments, Other,

217

Metal, 877

Welding-rods, 250 Other uses, 130

THE WORLD IN 2025: TiO2 FEEDSTOCK DEMAND by End-use (‘000 tonnes, TiO2 units)



SUMMING-UP & LOOKING-AHEAD

As China’s economy become more focused on domestic consumption, less

driven by capital investment & exports, its GDP growth will drop from >10% per annum (1983-2010), but will still be >5% per annum over the next 10 years. More mature economies (US, Canada, Japan, EU) will grow at 1.5-2.5% per annum. World GDP growth will be 3.0-3.5% per annum. By 2025, share of global GDP will rise from 23% to 31% for (China + India) and will fall from 35% to 25% for (North America + EU).

Global TiO2 pigment demand will increase by 2.9% from 5.89 mn tonnes in 2015 to 6.06 mn tonnes in 2016. Long-term forecast growth at 4.0% per annum, bringing total to 8.825 mn tonnes by 2025, of which China 41%.

Paint will remain the dominant end-use sector for TiO2 pigment. Demand growth in plastics & decorative laminates sectors will be >4% per annum.

Titanium sponge metal demand will rise from 208,000 tonnes in 2015 to 478,000 tonnes in 2025.

TiO2 feedstock demand will reach 10.8 mn tonnes by 2025, of which at least

61% chlorinatable (53% for TiO2 pigments, 8% for titanium metal).



MARKETING ALLIANCE FOR

INFORMATION ON CHINA’S TiO2 INDUSTRY Artikol is now marketing distributor worldwide (excluding Mainland China) for all publications covering TiO2 and allied industries* published by:

China Chemical Markets (CCM), headquartered in Guangzhou

* Including: Asian Pigment Markets under a Changing Environment (Sep 2014, 80 pages) China’s TiO2 Industry Trends under a Changing Environment (Nov 2014, 58 pages) Titanium Dioxide White Paper (Nov 2014, 24 pages) China TiO2 Monthly Report (Annual subscription, 32 pages per monthly issue)

For more details or to place orders (invoiced by & payable to Artikol, via credit-card or bank-to-bank funds transfer to Artikol’s London bank), please contact:

E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44-20-8658-2621


mailto:[email protected]


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E-mail:

regadams @

artikol.com

Website:

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