A/Prof Jeffrey FunkDivision of Engineering and Technology Management

National University of Singapore

For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Session Technology

1 Objectives and overview of course

2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?

3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that

better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling

4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems, big data analytics

5 MEMS and Bio-electronics

6 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing

7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays

8 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing

9 Superconductivity and Solar Cells

10 Deepavali, NO CLASS

This is Fourth Session of MT5009

What are the important dimensions of

performance for ICs and electronic systems?

What are the rates of improvement?

What drives these rapid rates of improvement?

Will these improvements continue?

What kinds of new electronic systems will likely

emerge from the improvements in ICs?

What does this tell us about the future?

Creating materials (and their associated

processes) that better exploit physical

phenomenon

Geometrical scaling

• Increases in scale

• Reductions in scale

Some technologies directly experience

improvements while others indirectly experience

them through improvements in “components”

Note: A summary of these ideas can be found in: 1) What Drives Exponential Improvements? California Management

Review, May 2013; 2) Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford University Press

Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena• Created materials with higher mobility and other

properties

Geometrical scaling• Increases in scale: larger wafers/production equipment

• Reductions in scale: small feature sizes for memory and other integrated circuits. This is most important driver of improvements for integrated circuits (ICs)

Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” • Better ICs lead to better electronic systems

Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law

What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?

Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?

What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Why is the number of transistors per chip

an important dimension of performance

and cost for ICs?

Gordon Moore’s Original Handwritten Figure in 1965

concerning tradeoffs between yields and integration

Let’s look at ICs in more detail

Transistors Replaced Vacuum Tubes partly because it is

easier to make transistors smaller and cheaper

Microchips (EPROM memory)

inside a package that can be

placed on a wiring board

Integrated circuit of Atmel

Diopsis 740 System on Chip

with memory blocks, logic

and input/output pads

around the periphery

MOS and Bipolar Transistors, made on a

single substrate

Metal Oxide

Semiconductor

(MOS)

Transistor

Bipolar

TransistorL: gate

length

Junction Depth

Gate Oxide Thickness

N: phosphorus, arsenic

P: boron, gallium, indium

ICs also include resistors and capacitors

The more transistors on a chip, the more

functions it can perform

Increasing the number of transistors on a chip

requires

• Smaller feature sizes

• Larger die/chip sizes

Chips are placed on printed wiring/circuit

boards

Build up multiple layers of materials

• Single crystalline silicon

• Silicon dioxide, Poly-silicon

• Multiple layers of metal

Add impurities to some layers to make n or p layers

• Diffusion furnace

• Ion Implantation

Form patterns in each layer of materials

• Add photosensitive material

• Shine light through mask

• Etch away unneeded material

• Remove photosensitive material

Place IC in package

*Similarities exist

with LEDs,

MEMS, bio-

electronics, LCDs,

solar cells, organic

LEDs and

transistors,

batteries, and fuel

cells

Photolithography Used to Form Patterns in Layers

Width of this “line”

is one type of

feature size.

Another is thickness

What kinds of improvements in the

processes are made?

How do these improvements impact on

the performance and cost of ICs?

Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law

What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?

Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?

What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?

Reducing the features (i.e., scale) on transistors leads

to improvements in performance and cost

Metal Oxide

Semiconductor

(MOS) Transistor:

gate length (L)

depends on

feature size

Bipolar Transistor:

Gate length

depends on junction

depth

L: gate length/

junction depth

Junction depth

Gate Oxide Thickness

Emitter, Base, Collector

Reductions in Feature Size, Junction Depth, and Gate Oxide

Thickness Enable Increases in Speed, Lower Power

Consumption per Transistor, and More Transistors on a Chip

Figure 2. Declining Feature Size

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Mic

rom

eter

s (M

icro

ns)

Gate Oxide

Thickness

Junction Depth

Feature length

Source: (O'Neil, 2003)

Photo/

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NAND_scaling_timeline.png

This Slide is Even More Explicit: Smaller Feature

Sizes Leads to More Transistors on Microprocessors

Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7373/fig_tab/nature10676_F3.html

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ieee_pilot/articles/96jproc11/jproc-MSanvido-2004319/article.html

Minimum feature size in nanometers

http://www.chipworks.com/en/technical-competitive-

analysis/resources/blog/looking-inside-samsungs-3x-nm-process-

generation/

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

Increases in Die Size (helped by lower defect densities) Also

Contributed to Increases in Number of Transistors Per Chip

Costs of most products fall as size is reduced, since for most technologies, • costs of material, equipment, factory, transportation

typically fall over long term as size is reduced

However, performance of only some technologies increases as size is reduced • placing more transistors or magnetic or optical storage

regions in a certain area can increase speed and functionality and reduce power consumption and size of final product

• combination of both increased performance and reduced costs has led to exponential improvements in many electronic components

Smaller gate lengths and thinner layers

also enable faster speeds and/or smaller

voltages (i.e., power consumption/per

transistor)• 10 volts in 1980?

• 1.8 to 2.5 volts in 1997

• 0.5 to 0.6 volts in 2012 (estimated)

Source: ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors)

Required advances in science

• Creation of first junction transistor in 1949 by Walter Brattain, John

Bardeen, and William Shockley (Nobel Prize in 1956)

• Other advances in 1950s at Bell Labs, TI, and Fairchild

Change from germanium to silicon transistors

Diffused and planar process, which defined basic steps – mostly

unchanged since late 1950s (some changes recently)

Required better equipment

• use of processes and equipment that were borrowed from

industries such as aerospace, nuclear energy, and printing

• revitalization of Czochralski’s crystal growing approach (1917) and

combination with zone refining (1950s)

• development of many forms of new equipment such as plasma

etchers and new photolithographic equipment

Although smaller feature sizes have had the largest impact on falling transistor costs, • increases in the scale of wafers and equipment have

also contributed to a falling cost per transistor

• Similar to falling costs of chemicals as size of pipes and reaction vessels are increased

These issues are also addressed in • Session 3 in what drives improvements…..

• Session 7 on Lighting and Displays when the falling cost of LCDs is discussed

• Session 9 on solar cells when the falling costs of solar cells is discussed

Source: http://mrsec.wisc.edu/Edetc/SlideShow/slides/contents/computer.html

Larger and Smaller Scale have led to Lower Cost

Per Transistor

Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page58.html

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page62.html

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page60.html

T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=4926

Changes in Scale Impacted on Cost per pixel of Camera Chips

MOSFETS: Metal

Oxide Semiconductor

Field Effect Transistors

IGBTs

(Insulated Gate Bipolar

Transistors)

Electronic components in high electrical power

systems must handle high power

• field of power electronics

Passive devices (resistors, capacitors and other

analog components) also don’t scale like low-

power transistors

• Thus costs of high-power ICs and passive devices

haven’t experienced same reductions in cost that

memory ICs and microprocessors have experienced

• MEMS and nano-technology may change this

IGBT: Insulated-gate bipolar transistor

GTO: Gate turn off thyristor

Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law

What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?

Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?

What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?

Quote by one computer scientist• by the 1940s computer designers had recognized that

“architectural tricks could not lower the cost of a basic computer; low cost computing had to wait for low cost logic” and

• “much of computer architecture is unchanged since the late 1940s”

Similar levels of improvements• 9 orders of magnitude for ICs in last 50 years

• 9 orders of magnitude for computers in last 50 years

Smith, 1988. A Historical Overview of Computer Architecture. IEEE Annals of the History of

Computing 10(4), 277-303

Improvements in MIPS (Million Instructions Per Second) Per Price

Source: Koh and Magee, 2006

Improvements in Computations Per Second (Koomey et al, 2011)

Improvements in Computations per Kilo-Watt Hour (Koomey et al, 2011)

Mainframe computers – early 1950s

Mini-computers – mid-1960s

Personal computers – mid-1970s

Workstations – early 1980s

Portable computers

• Laptop - late 1980s

• Personal digital assistant – mid-1990s

• Notebook – early 2000s

• Smart phones – mid-2000s

• Tablet computer – about 2010

IBM System/360 MainframeDEC PDP-8 in 1965

IBM 5150 as of 1981 Laptop

Required cheaper and better

• electronic components

For mainframe computers it was better vacuum tubes

For subsequent discontinuities, it was better ICs

• Magnetic storage such as hard disks

• Displays (at least recent computers)

All of these computers were based on architectures

(and concepts) that have been know since 1940s

• Thus bottleneck has been electronic components,

• Better components have also enabled use of more

sophisticated software

Similar arguments be made for

• Mobile phones and other portable devices

• Servers, routers, and much of the Internet

• Video game consoles (and other simulators)

• Set-top boxes and much of cable TV systems

• Automated algorithmic trading of stocks by hedge

funds, and online universities

• To some extent, also better control over machinery,

production systems, mechanical products such as autos

Better ICs (also magnetic/optical disks) enable

new electronic (and mechanical) products and

often create entrepreneurial opportunities

Laptops MP3 Players

Calculators Video Set-top boxes E-Book Readers

Digital Games Web Browsers Digital TV

Watches Mobile Digital Cameras Smart Phones

PCs Phones PDAs Tablet Computers

Increases in the Number of Transistors Make New Forms of

Electronic Products Economically Feasible

Many of these new systems can be

considered disruptive innovations

They entered from the low-end, gradually

became better, and displaced higher end

products

Why did these low-end innovations

emerge and why did they become better? • Improvements in ICs were the sources of

improvements

• Demand played a secondary role

HDD: Hard

Disk Drives

Last Week: Higher Platter Densities Enable Higher Capacities

Areal Recording Density

of Hard Disks

Laptops MP3 Players

Calculators Video Set-top boxes E-Book Readers

Digital Games Web Browsers Digital TV

Watches Mobile Digital Cameras Smart Phones

PCs Phones PDAs Tablet Computers

This Week: Better ICs Make New Forms of Electronic

Products Economically Feasible

Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs)

What drives these improvements? Mostly

geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products

have emerged from these improvements in ICs?

Will improvements in ICs continue and what

opportunities might emerge to ensure continuity?• Slow down in improvements

• Bottlenecks

• Medium and long term solutions

What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge

as these improvements in ICs continue?

Increases in number of transistors per chip

are slowing, according to some

• Particularly in terms of R&D effort

Cost of fabrication facility is rising

Design Costs for ICs is rising

Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant

High Power Consumption

Harder to find shorter wave lengths of light

for photolithographic equipment

How Does Curve Look When X-Axis is Effort

($M

)

Source: ICKnowledge, 2009

Costs of equipment are rising even as

cost of transistors are falling

TSMC invested

9.3 billion dollars

in its Fab15 300

mm wafer

manufacturing

facility which

became

operational

in 2012

Number of

steps rising!

Source: International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), 2008

But Industry participants are still optimistic!

Increases in number of transistors per chip

are slowing, according to some

• Particularly in terms of R&D effort

Cost of fabrication facility is rising

Design Costs for ICs is rising

Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant

High Power Consumption

Long Wave Length of Light for

Photolithography

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

0

10,000,000

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

1000

100

0

Co

mp

lex

ity –

10

00

s of

log

ic t

ransi

stors

per

chip

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

–tr

ansi

stor

per

sta

ff m

on

th

(fun

ctio

n o

f C

AD

)

1980 1990 2000 2010

58% increase per year

21% increase per year

Moore’s Law Increases Importance of Development Cost and Time

Source: Rowen, 2004

One way to reuse designs is with Application Specific

ICs (ASICs) of which there are several types

Standard cell libraries - designers choose specific

designs from “library”

• Systems on Chip use existing blocks of memory, microprocessors,

and other functions to design large systems

Gate Arrays – designers choose connections between

transistors by determining metal mask

Field programmable gate arrays – designer connect

relevant transistors that are fabricated on a standard

chip

Increases in number of transistors per chip

are slowing, according to some

• Particularly in terms of R&D effort

Cost of fabrication facility is rising

Design Costs for ICs is rising

Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant

High Power Consumption

Long Wave Length of Light for

Photolithography

Already changed interconnect material

from aluminum to copper

And changed to higher dieletric constant

materials

But more changes are occurring….

Increases in number of transistors per chip

are slowing, according to some

• Particularly in terms of R&D effort

Cost of fabrication facility is rising

Design Costs for ICs is rising

Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant

High Power Consumption

Long Wave Length of Light for

Photolithography

We all know about high power

consumption of computers• Short battery life

• Heat from laptop

This high power consumption is in spite

of move from bipolar to MOS and CMOS

transistors

Move to CMOS only Temporarily Solved the Power

Consumption Problem

Moore’s Law continues to create bigger problems in power

and heat and thus opportunities for New Designs

But laptops won’t become nuclear reactors

Source: Chuck Moore, Data Processing in Exascale-Class Systems, April 27, 2011. Salishan Conference on High Speed Computing

Increases in number of transistors per chip

are slowing, according to some

• Particularly in terms of R&D effort

Cost of fabrication facility is rising

Design Costs for ICs is rising

Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant

High Power Consumption

Long Wave Length of Light for

Photolithography

Bottleneck in photolithographic process is wavelength of light.

Feature sizes are now smaller than wavelength of visible light

Source: http://www.soccentral.com

/results.asp?CatID=488&EntryID=30894

Must compensate with strong optical

lenses and error correction software

This is one reason for rising cost of

fabrication facilities

Light is emitted

by a plasma

Need

1) Vacuum since

air absorbs

small wave-

length light

2) stronger light

source to

speed up

processing

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013_08_04_archive.html

Representatives from EUV machine manufacturer ASML outlined a concrete plan that will put

machines into the production lines of wafer fabs. With some boosts in laser power and a few other

adjustments, the company now expects the workhorse EUV machines to be ready by 2015. That

should be just in time to pattern the tiny transistors in the industry’s 10-nanometer node, the

generation after the next generation of logic chips.

EUV machines use 13.5-nm light to draw far finer features than today’s 193-nm lithography machines

can create. But the insufficient brightness of the light source has made commercialization difficult. The

dimmer the light, the longer each wafer must be exposed, and the longer it takes to make each chip.

ASML’s goal is to eventually produce 125 wafers per hour with its first production-level machine, the

NXE:3300, which is shipping this year. At that rate, ASML expects that 250 watts of EUV light will be

required.

In February, lithography light-source maker Cymer announced that researchers there had pushed light

levels up to 55 W in one of ASML’s previous-generation machines, the “preproduction” NXE:3100. At

that level of brightness, the machine would be capable of exposing 43 wafers per hou

The latest

EUV

lithography

system

achieves

28 wafers

per hour

but needs 200

wafers per hour

for the

system to

be economical

Source:

http://nextbigfuture.com

/2014/06/extreme-

ultraviolet-lithography

-hopes.html#more

Improvements in integrated circuits

What drives these improvements? Mostly

geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products

have emerged from these improvements in ICs?

Will improvements in ICs continue and what

kinds of opportunities might?• Medium and long term solutions

What kinds of new electronic systems will

emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

Beyond 14nm, as we move to 10

and 7nm, a new “fin” material will be

required

probably silicon-germanium

(SiGe), or perhaps just pure

germanium.

SiGe will take us to 7nm then a new

transistor structure is needed at 5

nanometers.

FinFET creates a larger surface

area, mitigating the effects of

quantum tunneling, both Gate All

Around (GAA) FETs and vertical

tunneling FETs (TFETs), would

enable shorter gates and lower

voltages

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013_08_04_archive.html

TSV: through silicon via

TSV: Through Silicon Via

It can be cheaper to add more layers than

to make feature sizes smaller

Market for 3D ICs was $2.4 Billion in

2012, expected to grow 18% between

2012 and 2019 Source: Research and Markets,

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-ics-market-global-

industry-190000451.html

3D ICs Interconnect Performance Modeling and Analysis , Ph.D. Dissertation Draft

2 layers:

37% reduction

3 layers:

57% reduction

4 or 5 layers:

65% reduction

3D IC technology, Pouya Dormiani and Christopher Lucas

2 layers:

30% reduction

3 layers:

35% reduction

4 or 5 layers:

40% reduction

Source: Spring 2013 MT5009 class and Phd Dissertations

Simple stacked

(Same function)

Medium

integration

(Logic+Memory)

Multi-function

integration

(Heterogeneous)

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

Built from organic molecules rather than silicon Advantages

• greater flexibility

• lower manufacturing temperature (60-120° C)

• lower-cost processes such as roll-to roll printing

Disadvantages• lower mobility and switching speeds compared to silicon

• usually do not operate under inversion mode

Current Market• Circuits for Electronic paper (e.g., e-Books),

OLEDs and other displays

Future Market• Greater use of organic transistors in cases where flexible

electronics are useful

• Replacement of ICs

Huanli Dong , Chengliang Wang and Wenping Hu, High Performance Organic Semiconductors for Field-Effect

Transistor, Chemical Commununications, 2010,46, 5211-5222

http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2010/cs/b909902f#!divAbstract

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

Flash Memory has Slow Read Write Speeds

http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf

Storage elements are formed on two ferromagnetic

plates that are separated by a thin insulating layer

One of two plates is permanent magnet set to a

particular polarity, the other's field can be changed

Cell can be read by measuring its electrical resistance

with a transistor

• Due to magnetic tunnel effect, the electrical resistance of the

cell changes due to the orientation of the fields in the two plates

• A transistor switches current from a supply line through the cell

to ground

• If the two plates have the same polarity this is considered to

mean "1", while if the two plates are of opposite polarity the

resistance will be higher and this means "0"

Simplified Diagram of MRAM

As opposed to using electrons or magnetism to store

data, PCM works on the properties of chalcolgenide

glass

Heat is used to toggle between different states of

chalcolgenide glass thus allowing the storage of 1-bit

of information

• Stable at room temperature

• Melted: Amorphous state (insulator) store a ‘0’

• Upon heating: Crystalline state (conductive) store a ‘1’

Measure the resistivity/reflectivity to know if glass is

in an amorphous or conductive state

Phase Change Memory

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

Very high conductivities

In medium term, can be used in channel area

(under gate) in place of silicon for faster

transistors

In long term, can they be designed with

different properties (e.g., conductors,

insulators, semiconductors) so that transistors

can be built with them

Improvements in Purity of CNTs (and Increases in Density)

Source: Electronics: The road to carbon nanotube transistors, Aaron D. Franklin

Nature 498, 443–444 (27 June 2013)

IBM Says they are five times faster and will be ready around 2020 when feature lengths reach 5nm (now 14 nm)

Built on top of silicon wafersEach transistor uses six nanotubes lined

up in parallel to make a single transistorNantero has shipped samples of

nanotube based memory (NRAM)Produced in CMOS fabs (20 ns access

times)

Source: Technology Review, http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/07/ibm-says-nanotube-transistors-chips.html#more

http://nantero.com/mission.html

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

Graphene

Also very high conductivitiesIn short term replace silicon with graphene in channel area

In long term combine graphene with other ultra-thin materials

As of April 2013, >10 materials found and some of them can be integrated with Graphene or each other

Boron nitride (insulator) has been fabricated in one-atom sheet as has Molybdenum Sulfide• Molybdenum Sulfide is semiconductor, Boron Nitride is

insulator, Graphene is for interconnect

• Together one atom thick flash memory devices have been constructed

• More complex devices can be constructed by doping one of the layers

http://thessdreview.com/daily-news/latest-buzz/flash-memory-to-be-based-on-

2d-materials-a-single-atom-thick/

Arrays of Wires Made from

Individual Layers of Atoms

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

IBM created an array of 96

iron atoms that contain one

byte of magnetic information

in

“anti-ferromagnetic” states.

But making them is still a

major challenge………….

Source: John Markoff, New Storage Device Is

Very Small, at 12 Atoms

NY Times, Jan 13, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/science/small

er-magnetic-materials-push-boundaries-of-

nanotechnology.html

New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a

replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your

brain does

This chip uses a million digital neurons

and 256 million synapses to process

information

Potential replacement for

microprocessors

Requires completely new forms of

computer architectures and software

SyNapse chip, replaces microprocessor Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529691/ibm-chip-processes-data-

similar-to-the-way-your-brain-does/

This is obviously a very difficult question…….

Will all chips have 3D layers of transistors or memory

cells by 2020? How many layers of transistors or memory

cells by 2025?

Will MRAM, PCM, ReRAM, or FeRAM replace flash

memory and which one will win?

Will carbon nanotubes or graphene be widely used in

ICs by 2020?

Will ultra-thin materials be the basis of conventional ICs

by 2030?

Can mobility of organic materials be sufficiently

improved?

When might Synapse chips become widespread?

Improvements in ICs, Computers, and

Electronic Products are not over

Improvements in ICs will continue at a

rapid rate

Moore’s Law is not Over!

These improvements will enable better

computers and other electronic products

Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs)

What drives these improvements? Mostly

geometric scaling in transistors/ICs

What kinds of new electronic systems/products

have emerged from these improvements in

ICs?

Will improvements in ICs continue and what

kinds of opportunities might?

What kinds of new electronic systems will

emerge as these improvements in ICs

continue?

Improvements in ICs are and will

continue to enable news forms of

electronic systems to emerge

Some of these were mentioned in earlier

slides• But what forms of them will emerge?

• What types of hardware and software?

Moravec’s Paradox• It is easier to make computers exhibit adult (calculations) than

child (perception and mobility) behavior

• Low-level sensorimotor still require much computational resources

What does this tell us about the future of work?• Cognitive vs. manual, routine vs. non-routine

• Hair salon workers and manicurists will have work (non-routine manual)

• Accountants, writers and other white collar workers may not (cognitive routine)

Source: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a

Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee

Smaller, cheaper, and better computers

More applications for RFID tags

• For managing food?

Bio-metrics (finger prints, voice, iris)

Surveillance systems

Managing fish prices in Kerala

Better construction

Computer assistants for doctors

Big Data Analysis

Simultaneous localization and mappingSource: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a

Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee

http://www.dirtt.net/No screws, nails, snap fitschange dimensions of one part,

automatically changes dimensions on other parts through better CAD

Uses ICE software, borrowed from video games

Direct connection with manufacturingQuick installationNo wastageEasy to reconfigure designs and rooms

Computers have beaten the best chess and Jeopardy players

Computers can help doctors better diagnose patients

Computer matches medical knowledge with patient’s symptoms, medical histories with test results• formulates both a diagnosis and treatment plan

What will be impact on doctors and health care?

Sources: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a

Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee

Scanning systems continue to become better• Higher resolution (moving towards molecules)

• Cheaper

• Faster

Examples• Computer tomography

• positron emission tomography

• MRI (magnetic resonance imaging)

Will they improve early detection of cancer and other diseases?

Will they put doctors out of work? The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, E Brynjolfsson, A McAfee

Innovator’s Prescription: A Disruptive Solution for Health Care, C Christensen, J Grossman

The End of Medicine, A Kessler

Improvements in ICs, Computers, hard disks enable more extensive data analysis• Particle accelerators, telescopes

• DNA sequencing equipment

• other types of scientific and medical equipment

They also enable large mathematical models for predictions, rather than pursue more efficient algorithms• better translations

• better predictions of flu trends, inflation, health problems, loan defaults, rising food prices, and even social problems such as riots or terrorism

• Big Data is receiving lots of venture capital money now

Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier

Continued improvements in performance and cost of• Computers

• Magnetic storage devices

Continued increases in data available from Internet usage

Continued increases in “big science”, telescopes, particle accelerators, DNA sequencers

Will lead to more “big data” analysis Currently one of biggest recipients of venture

capital in the U.S.

Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier

A service that tells farmers with great precision the seeds to plant and how to cultivate them in each patch of land

Special seed drills and other devices plant the seeds as they are pulled behind tractors• Facilitated by GPS

As an aside, many farmers are resisting prescriptive planting because of concerns about who owns the data

Higher resolution camera chips

Better MEMS (micro-electronic mechanical systems)

• Smaller feature size lead to higher performance

• Current feature sizes of 0.5 to 1.0 microns for MEMS and

thus industry is like ICs were in 1980

• MEMS will probably have similar impact as ICs

We will discuss these systems throughout the

semester

• 3D scanners, printers, holographic displays

• eye-tracking devices, autonomous vehicles

• better health care and management of buildings, dams,

bridges, power plants……..

Better ICs and sensors enable better process control and better collection of data, extending the Internet to more devices

This data can improve simulation tools that are also coming from improvements in ICs

What types of hardware and software will emerge that will enable better traffic management• Traffic sensors, smart cards, better fare management• Predictive analytics with better computers • Navigation systems with better ICs and MEMS• Goal should be to dramatically reduce public and

private vehicle breakdowns and accidents

Food delivery trucks are transporting goods only

10% of the time

Logistics accounts for >10% of finished product’s

cost and about 15% of world’s GNP

We need more standardization of containers and

communication protocols for communication (e.g.,

radio tags), more sharing of trucks and warehouse

(too many in proprietary networks)

Improvements in ICs, computers, and other aspects

of the Internet support this standardization and

optimization of supply chains

Source: Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188

Wireless Access and Control of Sensors• Environmental (temperature, pressure, gas content)• Physiological (heart rate, brain wave, blood pressure)• For vehicular and human traffic and many types of

infrastructure (factories, buildings, dams, bridges, power plants)

The phone may become a major collection, analysis, and control point for data • Control and program the thermostat, lighting, and

other appliances in homes• Find buses and trains, and rent bicycles, vehicles and

other things to increase capacity utilization and reduce energy usage (e.g., sharing economy)

Waze is a mobile phone app that uses multiple

layers of data

• Digital maps, GPS

• Social, Chat, and sensor data

Waze helps people navigate with cars

• It uses data (including driving time) from users to provide

better navigation routes

• Its value increases as more people input info on accidents,

traffic jams, police speed traps, road closings, new highway

exits and entrances, cheap gas

Similar technologies can be used for trains and

buses

It will happen sometime…But people have been talking about this for

a long time…The 2014 Consumer Electronics Show says it

will happen this yearBut others are not so optimistic (The smart

home is a pipe dream, CNN)One must think carefully about the specific

applications and the many types of solutions

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/02/technology/innovation/ces-connected-home/index.html

Better MOSFETs and other ICs enable wireless

charging

• Of electronic devices such as phones, TVs, other home

electronics

• Small loss in efficiency (if distance is small), eliminates

wires, and allows charging while moving

Better IGBTs enable high power charging

• Replacement of mechanical with electronic controls in

passenger vehicles (already occurred in aircraft and heavy

trucks)

• Wireless charging of vehicles?

More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well:

The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy

http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html

Improvements in ICs and other

components in the Internet are improving

the performance of online universities

But I’m not just talking about the

University of Phoenix!

The successful form of online universities

has probably not yet emerged

• The experiment is still underway!

The vertical integration between research

and teaching will probably disappear

This vertical disintegration may cause many

new layers to emerge within teaching

• Testing services – if one can guarantee quality,

why do you need to teach?

• Tutorial or project-based universities that rely on

massively open online courses for teaching

material

• Providers of massively open online courses,

either individuals or aggregators

ICs have experienced exponential improvements

These improvements primarily driven by

• reductions in scale, which enabled increases in the number of

transistors per chip

Increases in number of transistors per chip drove

changes in organization of transistors and created

entrepreneurial opportunities

• memory ICs and microprocessors

• ASICs and ASSPs

What types of new ICs and thus what kinds of

opportunities will emerge as number of transistors per

chip increases?

Improvements in ICs have also enabled emergence of

new forms of electronic products (and thus

opportunities)

• Computers, Mobile phones

• Telecommunication systems, Internet

What new forms of electronic products will emerge as

the improvements in ICs continue?

• Smaller computers with new forms of interfaces

• Computer assistants for doctors

• Big Data Analysis

• New forms of online universities

However, Moore’s Law may be reaching its limits and thus a new technology is needed

Three dimensional ICs

• 3D wafer level integration concept

• 3D TSV (through silicon via) silicon interposer concept

New forms of transistors/memory cells

• Magnetic random access memory

• Phase change memory

• Organic transistors and memristers

• Molecular and atomic transistors

Appendix

Improvements in Central Processing

Units for Video Game Consoles

T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap

ratio comparative analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007

Improvements in Graphic Processors for Video Game Consoles

T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis,

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007

Improvements in Video Random Access Memory (VRAM)

Speeds for Video Game Consoles

T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis,

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007