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Compliments of Dan Fasulo, Managing Director for Real Capital Analytics
Citation preview
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1'08
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2 3 4 1'11
2
Americas
AsiaPac
EMEA
Global transaction volume in the second quarter totalled $165.3b representing a 36% increase from a year earlier and bringing the total for 2011 at mid-year to approxi-mately $350.0b. � e period was marked by potential national defaults in Europe, natural disasters in Asia Pac and increas-ing worries about a double-dip recession across the globe. � erefore, property in-vestment trends are far more dynamic than the headline � gures imply. � e US mar-kets are roaring back to life this year with property sales soaring 147% year-over-year in Q2. Trading in EMEA was an anemic 10% gain year-over-year in Q2 on $42.5b in transactions, despite robust increases in Germany and Scandinavia. Japan saw volumes fall 42% in Q2 while transactions moderated in China and Hong Kong but surged in Singapore and Australia.
Billion
IN THIS ISSUE:• Overview: Investors Stay the Course
H1 volume hits $350 billion . . . . . . . . . . 1-4• EMEA: Investors Focus on Stable Economies . 5-9
Investment Momentum Linked To Risk . . . . 7Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
• Asia Pacifi c: China’s Land Sales Drop as CRE Volume Grows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14Cross-border Buyers Move Australia . . . . .12Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
• Americas: US Momentum Leads Growth . .15-19Pretend and Extend Withers in Q2Brazil: A Growing Institutional Market . . . .17Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
• Changing Landscape for Agents . . . . . . . . . 20
• Peak-Era Buyers: Where Are Th ey Now? . . . . 21
• Selected Investment Sales Transactions . . . . 22
• Notes & Defi nitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
AUGUST 2011 - REPORT CONTENTS
CROSS-BORDER ACQUISITIONS AND DISPOSITIONS IN AUSTRALIA
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acq disp netMillion
Mid-Year Review: US, Germany, Singapore Lead in Dynamic Marketplace
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUME
1©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
A U G U S T 2 011
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E W
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Average yields have continued to trend slightly downward in the Americas and EMEA. In the Americas, the
wave of capital entering the market this year is causing downward pressure, but that is being partially o� set by increased sales of troubled assets in the US. In EMEA, stable cap rates still re� ect strong German and Nordic volume combined with select UK trophy transactions. Higher yields in Asia Pac partly re� ect rebounding activity in Australia, where property o� ers among the highest average cap rates globally, as well as the severe slide in activity in traditionally lower-yielding Japan.
Pricing trends in the world’s global � nan-cial capitals provide more insight. Yields in these markets were relatively unchanged in Q2 and have moved little since the be-ginning of the year. � ese markets already
had very low cap rates, and without greater economic certainty, investors are hesitant about becoming even more bullish. In addition, with yields so low in these major markets, secondary cities and other higher yield-ing alternatives are more attractive. � e surge of cross-border capital into Australia well illustrates this trend.
TRANSACTION SUMMARYQ2'11
Vol ($B)YOY Chg
H1’11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Offi ce $41.2 29% $81.9 36%
Retail 32.7 97% 60.6 61%
Industrial 11.6 26% 22.3 41%
All Commercial $85.5 48% $164.8 45%
Hotel 8.8 80% 16.7 66%
Apartment 20.4 38% 33.2 37%
Land 50.6 14% 134.6 11%
Total $165.3 36% $349.3 30%
*Totals may not sum due to rounding
Billion Billion Billion
CAP RATES CAP RATES CAP RATES
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY ZONEOFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
ASIA PAC EMEA AMERICAS
PROPERTY ACQUISITION YIELDS IN MAJOR GLOBAL MARKETS
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11
NYC/DCHK/SingLondon/Paris
2©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
VOLUME BY THEATERALL PROPERTY TYPES
Q2'11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
H1’11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
United States $49.0 147% $77.8 124%Canada 4.5 8% 7.8 5%Latin America 2.1 17% 5.6 95%Americas $55.6 115% $91.2 102%Western Europe 28.8 27% 52.8 27%United Kingdom 9.0 -25% 24.3 14%Eastern Europe 3.1 17% 7.6 17%MidEast 0.8 -29% 1.5 -18%Africa 0.9 161% 1.1 -8%EMEA $42.5 10% $87.4 21%East Asia 50.7 21% 133.3 11%Japan 3.6 -42% 15.0 -5%SE Asia 6.6 41% 13.2 92%Australia - NZ 5.7 96% 8.1 24%India/Other 0.6 -71% 1.3 -56%Asia Pacifi c $67.2 17% $170.8 12%
Global* $165.3 36% $349.3 30%*Totals may not sum due to rounding
TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRYALL PROPERTY TYPES
Q1’11 Q2’11 H1’11
Country Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
1 China $75.7 8% $41.8 21% $117.6 12%
2 United States 28.8 93% 49.0 147% 77.8 124%
3 United Kingdom 15.3 62% 9.0 -25% 24.3 14%
4 Germany 9.3 42% 11.2 65% 20.5 54%
5 Japan 11.4 18% 3.6 -42% 15.0 -5%
6 Singapore 5.4 237% 6.2 68% 11.5 119%
7 Hong Kong 3.5 -29% 6.0 38% 9.5 3%
8 France 3.9 32% 5.3 -20% 9.1 -4%
9 Sweden 2.8 23% 5.1 80% 8.0 55%
10 Canada 3.3 2% 4.5 8% 7.8 5%
11 Australia 2.0 -34% 5.6 102% 7.6 32%
12 Brazil 2.9 399% 1.1 -32% 4.0 85%
13 Taiwan 1.7 -8% 1.3 -41% 3.0 -26%
14 South Korea 1.5 71% 1.4 91% 3.0 80%
15 Italy 1.6 87% 0.8 -9% 2.5 37%
16 Spain 1.3 -31% 1.1 -29% 2.3 -30%
17 Netherlands 1.3 19% 1.0 -5% 2.3 7%
18 Russia 0.2 -91% 1.8 85% 2.0 -34%
19 Poland 1.4 91% 0.5 -22% 1.8 40%
20 Norway 0.4 -33% 1.1 77% 1.5 22%
21 India 0.8 -29% 0.6 -71% 1.3 -56%
22 Finland 0.3 4% 0.8 182% 1.2 91%
23 Belgium 0.4 -9% 0.8 105% 1.2 47%
24 Czech Republic 0.9 279% 0.2 24% 1.2 168%
25 Switzerland 0.5 97% 0.6 280% 1.1 162%
26 Denmark 0.5 38% 0.6 78% 1.1 56%
27 South Africa 0.2 -79% 0.8 1362% 1.0 12%
28 Malaysia 0.6 47% 0.3 -58% 0.9 -23%
29 Israel 0.2 -48% 0.6 -6% 0.8 -22%
30 Ukraine 0.6 446% 0.1 -80% 0.7 40%
31 Chile 0.2 100% 0.6 4453% 0.7 678%
32 Austria 0.6 38% 0.1 -79% 0.7 -19%
33 Turkey 0.6 30% 0.1 94% 0.7 38%
34 New Zealand 0.4 -39% 0.1 -10% 0.5 -33%
35 Hungary 0.4 20% 0.1 27% 0.5 22%
36 UAE 0.5 64% 0.0 -95% 0.5 -36%
37 Romania 0.5 207% 0.0 -100% 0.5 59%
38 Croatia 0.4 - 0.0 -100% 0.4 283%
39 Portugal 0.2 -43% 0.2 -68% 0.4 -57%
40 Thailand 0.3 61% 0.1 -61% 0.4 -10%
All Others 1.4 54% 1.3 69% 2.7 61%
Grand Total $184.0 25% $165.3 36% $349.3 30%
Each global zone combated pressures from within. Sovereign debt fears in EMEA’s peripheral countries and
heavy belt-tightening in the UK restrained growth, but domestic and cross-border investors were active in Germany and the stable Scandinavian economies. While
Russia struggled, Central and Eastern Europe at-tracted yield-seeking in-vestment. In Asia Paci� c, the retail and industrial sectors were a counter-weight to slow o� ce vol-ume and a sharp drop-o� in Q2 land sales in China. In the US, the intense selective focus on major assets in major markets began to spread out, as yield-conscious investors moved into other markets and embraced garden apartments. � e � ow of new distress slowed and, with credit easing and prices � rming, lenders opted more for liquida-tions than restructurings of troubled assets.
Highlighting the choppy and o� en local-ized activity across the global markets, many countries saw quarterly yoy volume trends reverse, in both directions, from Q1 to Q2. Other countries, with the US in the lead, saw strong positive acceleration in growth in Q2. � e US had the highest yoy growth in both Q2 and H1, with its second quarter gain of 147% outpacing its 124% H1 growth. Ger-many and Sweden were the standout gainers in EMEA as France and the UK lost ground. China’s land sales turndown slowed the gi-ant Asia Pac market to just 12% in H1, one-third below its growth for commercial prop-erty only. Australia’s transaction volume moved rapidly positive, pushing the country to a 102% gain. Spectacular Q1 growth in Singapore and Brazil inevitably slowed in Q2, but both countries turned in solid posi-tive improvements for H1.
3©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
Blackstone $9,008 CPP Investment Board 3,689 Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC 3,098 China Vanke Co Ltd 3,048 Yunnan Zhonghao Props Co Ltd 2,714 CA Immo 2,402 Tesco Pension Trustees Ltd 2,200 Poly Real Estate Group 2,128 Invesco Real Estate 2,117 Wheelock & Co 2,105 Greentown China Hldgs Ltd 2,099 Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd 2,034 CapitaLand Limited 1,929 JP Morgan 1,747 China Overseas L & I Ltd 1,650 Mitsubishi Estate 1,611 China Merchants Group 1,517 Arminius Funds Mgmt 1,457 DekaBank 1,429 Far East Organization 1,423
Centro Properties Group $8,102 Urban Redevelopment Authority 3,356 Housing & Dev Board 2,821 Volksbank AG 2,426 Tesco plc 2,223 Beacon Capital Partners 2,215 Goldman Sachs 1,868 Deutsche Bank 1,782 CITIC Group 1,780 Broadway Partners 1,715 GE Capital 1,653 Aberdeen Property Investors 1,541 Eurocastle 1,544 Bracor Invtos Imobiliarios 1,297 Morgan Stanley 1,336 Equity Residential 1,345 Lone Star Partners 1,230 Unibail-Rodamco 1,242 Carlyle Group 1,097 Lehman Brothers Hldgs Inc 1,108
TOP 20 BUYERS#Vol
($M)
TOP 20 SELLERS #Vol
($M)
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 RET The Trafford Centre† Manchester, GBR $2,498 1,900 $1,315 Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC
2 RET Centr0† Oberhausen, DEU 1,913 2,174 880 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
3 DEV Borrett Road Site, Mid-levels Hong Kong, HKG 1,498 113 13,266 Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd
4 OFF 280 Park Avenue† New York, NY 1,100 1,179 941 SL Green JV Vornado
5 RET Northland Shopping Centre† Preston East, AUS 998 994 1,004 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
6 DEV Shenzhen 2011-K202-0014 Shenzhen, CHN 991 7,509 132 China Merchants Property Dev Co Ltd
7 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks (Prt II) Beijing, CHN 929 848 1,095 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
8 OFF Otemachi PAL Bldg Tokyo, JPN 877 301 2,916 Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd JV Mitsui & Co
9 OFF Deutsche Bank Twin Towers Frankfurt, DEU 857 807 1,062 DWS Investments Gmbh
10 DEV Changsha 2011-001 Changsha, CHN 855 800 1,068 Wharf Holdings
11 DEV Punggol Central & Punggol Walk Singapore, SGP 799 323 2,475 Frasers Centrepoint Ltd‡
12 DEV Boon Lay Way Singapore, SGP 791 194 4,085 CapitaMalls Asia JV HSBC Bank
13 OFF Chiswick Park London, GBR 781 1,900 411 Blackstone
14 OFF Helmsley Building† New York, NY 763 1,213 629 Invesco Real Estate
15 OFF Capital Square Singapore, SGP 700 387 1,810 Alpha Investment Partners (AIP)‡
16 OFF The Fifth Square† Beijing, CHN 682 1,009 677 China Minmetals Corporation
17 DEV Nanjing 2011G07 Nanjing, CHN 681 3,667 186 Shimao Property Holdings Ltd‡
18 DEV Toyosu District Site Tokyo, JPN 680 1,132 601 Tokyo Metropolitan Government
19 OFF The Centre Shanghai, CHN 666 963 692 China Pacifi c Insurance (Group) Co Ltd
20 RET La Rinascente Milan, ITA 652 566 1,151 First Atlantic Real Estate SGR
21 OFF Market Square East & West Washington, DC 615 680 905 Wells Real Estate Funds, Inc
22 HTL Ritz Carlton HTL Moscow, RUS 609 334 1,824 Verny Capital
23 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks Beijing, CHN 607 848 716 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
24 DEV Yiwu 2011017 Yiwu, CHN 594 883 672 Guangsha Construction
25 IND Interlink† Hong Kong, HKG 589 2,400 245 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 RET Centro United States Portfolio Multiple, USA $9,150 99,051 $92 Blackstone
2 RET Tesco RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, GBR 2,200 3,500 629 Tesco Pension Trustees Limited
3 MIX Europolis MIX Eastern Euro Ptfl 11 Europe 2,009 13,011 154 CA Immobilien Anlagen AG
4 OFF Eurocastle Mars Fixed 1 Ptfl 2011† Berlin, DEU 1,457 4,989 292 Arminius Funds Management
5 IND Bracor IND Portfolio 11 Multiple, BRA 1,322 10,764 123 Prosperitas
6 RET Metro RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, DEU 1,215 9,688 125 Cerberus Capital Management
7 OFF Kokusai Shin-Akasaka Towers Tokyo, JPN 1,066 863 1,236 Mitsubishi Estate Company, Limited
8 DEV Greentown China Hldgs Gov't Land Ptfl Taizhou, CHN 1,011 7,386 137 Greentown China Holdings Limited
9 DEV Kunming Guandu KC2010-76 Kunming, CHN 987 22,158 45 Yunnan Zhonghao Properties Co Ltd
10 APT Dombron Intressenter Ptfl † Multiple, SWE 948 8,281 115 AMF Fastigheter
11 MIX Melrose Arch† Melrose North, ZAF 686 1,808 332 Amdec Property Development
12 OFF Mapletree Com Trust Ptfl 2011 Singapore, SGP 625 733 853 Mapletree Commercial Trust
13 HTL MSREF HTL Portfolio 11 Multiple, Europe 621 2,537 245 Toufi c Aboukhater
14 MIX Capital and Counties Mix Ptfl Multiple, CA 600 2,106 253 Equity One‡
15 IND World Market Center Ptfl * Las Vegas, NV 600 4,832 124 Bain Capital‡
Global: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
4©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
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CommercialApartmentHotelLand
Following six consecutive quarters of strong year-over-year gains, EMEA transaction volumes stalled in Q2.
� e slowdown, to $42.5b of signi� cant property sales, was � at against a year ear-lier and re� ects widening divergence in in-vestor outlook across core and peripheral European markets. Pricing was also gener-ally � at in Q2 across EMEA and yields on acquisitions have changed little since the beginning of the year.
Among property types, retail was the big-gest gainer in H1’11 with volume up 41% boosted by billion-dollar transactions such as Tra� ord Centre in Manchester, Centr0 in
Oberhausen and a major Tesco portfo-lio in the UK. � e of-� ce and hotel sectors also recorded healthy gains in transaction volume while indus-trial and apartment volume fell yoy.
Germany and the Nordic countries have emerged as fa-
voured investment targets in the current market and all posted robust gains in trans-action activity in each quarter this year. � is helped o� set signi� cant Q2’11 yoy declines in the UK and France of 25% and 20%, respectively, in addition to continued weak performance in the peripheral mar-kets such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. Investors are � ocking to Germany and Scandinavia which currently o� er the highest risk adjusted yields (see page 7). Germany’s Q2’11 yoy growth of 65% was well ahead of its H1’11 gain of 54% (and the UK’s 14%) as domestic and cross-border demand broadened. Sweden, the hottest Nordic market, saw yoy growth of 55% for H1’11. With the strong exception of Russia’s 34% yoy decline, Eastern European activ-ity remained stable, with core properties in key markets attracting increased attention from yield-seeking investors. In the Middle East, both Israel and the United Arab Emir-ates saw a steep fallo� in activity in H1.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY Q2'11
Vol ($B)YOY Chg
H1’11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Offi ce $18.0 40% $33.7 31%Retail 12.1 26% 29.2 41%Industrial 2.8 -35% 7.1 -1%All Commercial 32.9 23% 70.0 31%Hotel 2.6 47% 5.6 39%Apartment 5.3 -33% 8.1 -25%Land 1.8 -20% 3.7 -11%Total $42.5 10% $87.4 21%
*Totals may not sum due to rounding
Billion
RUS
FIN
AUT
ITA
MCO
ESP
SWE
NOR
DEU
FRA
PRT
HUNHRV ROU
BGR
TUR
DNK
POL
UKRCZE
NLD
BEL
CHE
ISR
IND
CHN
MYS
TWN
JPNKOR
AUS
NZL
GBR
USA
CAN
MEX
ARG
BRA
SGP
HKG
CHL
ARE
SVK
THA
ZAF
QAT
IRL
SAU
PER
MNE
VNM
GRC
SRB
50–100%0–20% >100%20–50%-50–0%<-50%INCREASEDECREASE
PERCENT CHANGE IN TRANSACTION VOLUME(H1’10 VS H1’11)(H1’10 VS H1’11)
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUMEBY PROPERTY TYPE
EMEA: Quarter in Review Summary
5©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
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Among markets, positive yoy growth has slowed but been maintained in London and Paris indicating the
investment trends in secondary markets in the UK and France continue to under-perform. However, � ve German metros now occupy the top markets list, with all showing positive investment growth.
Cap rates on commercial properties in Western Europe and the UK are closely aligned averaging between 6.6% and 6.7%. Average cap rates in Eastern Europe record a decline in Q2, but are skewed by a higher quality of properties trading as investors seek to minimize risk. Recent prices and cap rates for new or newly ren-
ovated o� ce buildings in select European markets illustrate the premium prices commanded by the highest quality properties.
RECENTLY BUILT OR RENOVATED OFFICE BUILDING SALES IN Q2
Property City Price ($M)
PPSF/ PPU ($K) Cap Rate Built/
Renov
Selmer Building Oslo $166.7 1,006 4.5% 2008
Origami Paris 124.0 2,421 4.7% r2010
Guim'arts Brussels 46.7 620 5.4% r2010
DB Twin Towers Frankfurt 857.4 1,062 5.5% r2010
1 Finsbury Circus London 236.5 1,183 5.5% r2009
Billion Billion Billion
CAP RATES* CAP RATES* CAP RATES*
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY THEATEROFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
UNITED KINGDOM WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE
*Two quarter rolling average
6©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
7©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
Europe: Investment Momentum Linked To Risk
0 100 200 300 400
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Germany
Sweden
Cap Rate Gov't Bond Spread
Looking at investment volume increases across European markets and comparing spreads between cap rates and relevant
government bonds, it is clear that the momen-tum of real estate investment in Europe is � ow-ing towards the highest relative yields in the safest markets.
� e upper right quadrant of the momentum graph highlights the focus of capital on Ger-many and Sweden in response to the attractive cap rate spread over government bonds through Q2’11. Like Germany and the Nordics, the other countries in this quadrant display strong trans-
action volume growth both on a six-month and quarterly basis. � ey include a higher propor-tion of non-eurozone countries with more stable economic conditions. Countries plotted in the lower le� quadrant, notably Spain and Portugal, are experiencing negative transaction momen-tum. � e UK on a half-year basis yoy escapes this grouping, but its lower Q2’11 volume yoy re� ects a weakening market. Among the outli-ers, Ireland saw already low volume falter in Q2’11, while Russia’s good Q2 re� ects a major luxury Moscow hotel acquired by Kazakhstan backed private equity.
-40%
-20%
-80%
-60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-40%-60% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Czech Republic
Norway
Hungary
Italy
Romania
Denmark
Germany
Turkey
Sweden
Switzerland
Finland
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
*Greece
Russia
Belgium
Austria
Poland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Ukraine
France
Croatia
CAP RATE SPREADS TO SOVEREIGN BONDS
*No significant transactions recorded for Greece over the last 12 months. Based on percent change in Euros
INVESTMENT MOMENTUM BY COUNTRY ALL PROPERTY TYPES
H1’11 vs H1’10 % Chg
Q2’1
1 vs
Q2’
10 %
Chg
Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC $2,498 CA Immo 2,402 Tesco Pension Trustees Limited 2,200 CPP Investment Board 1,913 Arminius Funds Management 1,457 Cerberus Capital Management 1,215 DekaBank 1,179 Deutsche Bank 1,160 AMF 948 AEW Capital Management 788 Invesco Real Estate 786 Blackstone 781 Signa Holding 721 Corio NV 716 Amdec Property Development 686 First Atlantic Real Estate SGR 652 Prudential PLC 640 Legal & General Property 631 Real I.S. AG 612 Verny Capital 609
Peel Group $2,498 Volksbank AG 2,426 Tesco plc 2,223 Stadium Group 1,913 Deutsche Bank 1,782 Aberdeen Property Investors 1,541 Eurocastle 1,544 Unibail-Rodamco 1,242 Beacon Capital Partners 1,043 Fourth Swedish Nat'l Pension Fund 948 Morgan Stanley 922 Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA 804 ECE Projektmanagement 817 Schroders plc 781 Stanhope Plc 781 Kuwait Investment Authority 741 Highstreet Holding 760 GE Capital 734 Hermes 678 Investitori Associati 652
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 RET The Trafford Centre† Manchester, GBR $2,498 1,900 $1,315 Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC (CSC)
2 RET Centr0† Oberhausen, DEU 1,913 2,174 880 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
3 OFF Deutsche Bank Twin Towers Frankfurt, DEU 857 807 1,062 DWS Investments Gmbh
4 OFF Chiswick Park London, GBR 781 1,900 411 Blackstone
5 RET La Rinascente Milan, ITA 652 566 1,151 First Atlantic Real Estate SGR
6 HTL Ritz Carlton HTL Moscow, RUS 609 334 1,824 Verny Capital
7 RET Boulevard Berlin Berlin, DEU 533 753 707 Corio NV
8 OFF Rolls Building London, GBR 492 262 1,880 Legal & General Property
9 OFF MidCity Place† London, GBR 468 352 1,329 Oxford Properties Group
10 OFF Aviva Tower London, GBR 439 315 1,393 Kuok Khoon Hong & Martua Sitorus
11 OFF River Court London, GBR 437 425 1,029 Chinese Estates Group
12 OFF 10 Aldermanbury London, GBR 434 312 1,393 JP Morgan
13 OFF River Ouest Bezons, FRA 400 689 581 ING RE Invt Mgmt France OBO Predica SA‡
14 OFF 20 Gresham St London, GBR 374 237 1,580 AXA RE Investments Managers (REIM)
15 OFF Park House London, GBR 366 310 1,180 Qatar National Bank
16 HTL Paris Marriott Champs-Elysees Paris, FRA 362 192 1,887 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
17 RET Spitalerstrasse 22-26† Hamburg, DEU 361 55 6,560 Signa Holding
18 HTL Le Meridien Montparnasse Paris, FRA 350 953 367 Unibail-Rodamco
19 OFF Belgrave House† London, GBR 347 280 1,239 TIAA-CREF (fund)
20 RET Jubilee & West End Houses London, GBR 342 121 2,834 Pontegadea Inversiones SL
21 RET Schloss Arkaden Braunschweig, DEU 335 597 561 Deka Immobilien Investment GmbH
22 OFF Defense Plaza Puteaux, FRA 325 335 969 Northwood Investors LLC
23 RET Eden Shopping Centre† High Wycombe, GBR 313 850 368 Aldersgate Investments
24 RET Marmara Park† Istanbul, TUR 302 1,076 281 DWS Investments Gmbh
25 RET Wankdorf Shopping Centre Bern, CHE 300 678 442 UBS JV Swissreal Investments Ltd
TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 RET Tesco RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, GBR $2,200 $3,500 $629 Tesco Pension Trustees Limited
2 MIX Europolis MIX Eastern Euro Ptfl 11 Multiple, Europe 2,009 13,011 154 CA Immobilien Anlagen AG
3 OFF Eurocastle Mars Fixed 1 Ptfl 2011† Berlin, DEU 1,457 4,989 292 Arminius Funds Management
4 RET Metro RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, DEU 1,215 9,688 125 Cerberus Capital Management
5 APT Dombron Intressenter ptfl † Sweden other 948 8,281 115 AMF Fastigheter
6 MIX Melrose Arch† Melrose North, ZAF 686 1,808 332 Amdec Property Development
7 HTL MSREF HTL Portfolio 11 Multiple, Europe 621 2,537 245 Toufi c Aboukhater
8 MIX NR Nordic & Russia Props Ltd Mix Ptfl 11 Multiple, Europe 542 8,872 61 Kungsleden AB
9 APT Genesis Housing APT Ptfl 11† London, GBR 464 1,630 284 Grainger plc
10 MIX ECE MIX portfolio 2011† Hamburg, DEU 435 665 655 Real I.S. AG
11 RET Rubin Moscow RET Ptfl 2011 Moscow, RUS 428 1,017 421 Yuri and Alexei Hotin
12 IND VGP IND Portfolio 11† Prague, CZE 414 4,629 89 AEW Europe JV Tristan Capital Partners
13 RET Unibail RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, SWE 379 1,002 379 Grosvenor‡
14 RET Karstadt Highstreet Ptfl 2011 Multiple, DEU 370 524 706 Quantum Immobilien AG
15 RET Highstreet Karstadt Ptfl Munich, DEU 361 570 632 Signa Holding‡
TOP 20 BUYERS#Vol
($M)
TOP 20 SELLERS #Vol
($M)
EMEA: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
8©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
APAR
TMEN
TIN
DU
STR
IAL
OFF
ICE
RET
AIL
HO
TEL
LAN
D S
ITE
GR
AND
TO
TAL*
YOY
CH
ANG
E
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol
Prop
s
EMEAEurope
Aust
riaAu
stria
, all
$72
2$7
22
$258
3$3
165
$717
12-1
9%-4
5%Be
lgiu
mBe
lgiu
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ll21
192
391
420
583
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1,173
2947
%16
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lgar
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ech
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blic
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h Re
publ
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47
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830
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1,163
2016
8%25
%
Denm
ark
Cope
nhag
en43
345
231
88
347
672
182
520
81%
100%
Denm
ark o
ther
181
654
151
29
124
38
7%10
0%Ba
ltic S
tate
sBa
ltic S
tate
s25
129
97
171
341
999
4%35
0%
Finl
and
Hels
inki
604
282
552
1015
23
792
1922
6%58
%Fi
nlan
d ot
her
293
845
859
8611
101
338
431
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7%
Fran
cePa
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34
237
74,
699
8337
842
1,08
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6,57
817
741
%51
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ance
oth
er28
68
282
2851
917
1,26
023
196
52,
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Germ
any
Berli
n-Br
ande
nbur
g98
939
271
1,81
336
886
1215
23
200
44,
068
9553
%-1
3%Ha
mbu
rg34
124
216
81,
413
241,
056
652
212
54
3,20
368
309%
209%
Mun
ich
286
1817
83
321
950
18
363
119
51,
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4610
%59
%Fr
ankf
urt/
Rhin
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ain
794
801
1,29
48
298
822
15
297
62,
269
3217
5%-1
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uttg
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111
382
106
414
24
211
100
142
013
23%
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Rhin
e-Ru
hr34
527
483
704
142,
348
2727
120
47
3,67
679
12%
-66%
Saxo
n Tr
iang
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710
355
145
341
37
221
131
775
116
11%
625%
Germ
any o
ther
564
216
492
315
113,
293
138
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78
4,65
738
037
%22
2%Gr
eece
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ce, a
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82
169
310
01
691
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922
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land
Irela
nd,a
ll34
64
346
411
1%-4
3%
Italy
Rom
e26
36
661
961
425
8-4
6%0%
Italy
oth
er13
190
017
1,02
97
872
2,02
927
102%
4%N
ethe
rland
sN
ethe
rland
s, al
l27
429
434
191,
035
3248
316
412
302
2,29
710
07%
-3%
Nor
way
Nor
way
, all
282
121
695
014
403
610
11,
512
2922
%0%
Pola
ndPo
land
, all
220
889
711
543
642
211
35
1,81
532
40%
28%
Port
ugal
Port
ugal
, all
403
553
591
703
150
437
314
-57%
-60%
Rom
ania
Rom
ania
, all
461
201
318
219
52
459
859
%-2
7%
Russ
iaM
osco
w16
52
331
362
83
639
21,
763
10-2
0%-5
8%Ru
ssia
oth
er20
152
218
115
02
211
261
7-6
9%-9
1%
Spai
nM
adrid
281
211
170
332
523
718
95
371
770
248
-40%
700%
Spai
n ot
her
183
818
74
570
248
443
1018
75
1,56
927
5-2
4%-4
0%
Swed
enSt
ockh
olm
771
4528
822
716
1769
67
118
218
22
2,76
995
20%
16%
Swed
en o
ther
1,96
313
41,
042
691,
504
119
581
2647
562
35,
198
356
82%
88%
Switz
erla
ndSw
itzer
land
, all
189
348
35
326
294
21,
092
1216
2%20
%Tu
rkey
Turk
ey, a
ll13
113
23
462
239
224
167
09
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-25%
Unite
d Ki
ngdo
m
Lond
on M
etro
958
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716
9,43
410
81,
338
2129
113
196
512
,444
180
19%
-8%
Man
ches
ter M
etro
392
894
2,57
24
245
42,
945
1426
3%-4
6%Sc
otla
nd16
64
603
364
1016
160
618
-50%
-67%
UK o
ther
125
41,
205
531,
458
485,
159
9331
99
874
8,35
321
1-7
%-5
6%Uk
rain
eUk
rain
e al
l49
91
251
200
372
45
40%
-38%
Euro
pe o
ther
Euro
pe11
23
295
110
22
141
523
752
%-3
6%To
tal
$7,7
6369
4$7
,043
303
$33,
270
681
$28,
517
1,01
6$5
,459
143
$2,7
2379
$84,
775
2,91
622
%2%
Mid-East
Isra
elIs
rael
, all
306
262
317
73
256
580
113
-22%
-32%
UAE
Duba
i48
36
483
6-3
6%-6
7%UA
E, a
ll16
52
165
2-
-M
id-E
ast o
ther
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i Ara
bia,
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671
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-16%
0%To
tal
$306
2$6
23
$177
3$9
7214
$1,5
1622
-18%
-42%
Afr
ica
Afric
a Af
rica,
all
891
319
354
66
983
201
1,07
114
-6%
0%To
tal
$89
1$3
193
$546
6$9
83
$20
1$1
,071
14-6
%0%
EMEA
: Tra
nsac
tions
by
Mar
ket i
n H
1’11
MID
-YE
AR
RE
VIE
WA
UG
US
T 2
01
1
9©
2011
Rea
l Cap
ital A
naly
tics,
Inc.
All
right
s re
serv
ed. D
ata
belie
ved
to b
e ac
cura
te b
ut n
ot g
uara
ntee
d; s
ubje
ct to
futu
re re
visi
on; b
ased
on
prop
ertie
s &
por
tfol
ios
$10m
and
gre
ater
.
Sales of signi� cant properties in Asia Paci� c totaled $67.2b in Q2’11, bringing the total for the � rst half
of 2011 to $170.8b. While the region con-tinues to show solid, steady growth in commercial property investment, some signi� cant changes were noted in Q2 as investment surged in Australia and plum-meted in Japan. Hong Kong recovered from a relatively poor Q1 with a stronger Q2 to be � at at the mid-year point while Singapore’s 119% increase in transactions in H1 topped every major economy glob-ally except the US.
Also noteworthy, cross-border inves-tors were part of the surge in transactions
in Australia and Singapore, and the buyers included a healthy mix of Eu-ropean and North American invest-ment � rms which have been relatively quiet since 2007.
South Korea also posted strong results in each quarter this year and its 80% in-
crease in H1 was the second highest in Asia. � e only countries in Asia Paci� c where in-vestment momentum appears waning and volume fell in both quarters this year were India, Taiwan and New Zealand.
Across Asia Paci� c, growth accelerated in the second quarter in every property type save o� ce, which is largely due to curtailed investment in Japan. In China, sales of o� ce and retail properties nearly doubled in H1’11 while sales of develop-able land moderated in Q2 as China’s long-running e� orts to calm exuber-ant sales appear to be bearing fruit. In addition, transactions in China’s over-heated primary markets dropped as ac-tivity moved to secondary and tertiary cities. Land rights in China accounted for $38.7b in Q2, up slightly on a year-over-year basis, but half of levels recorded in the two most recent quarters.
TRANSACTION SUMMARYQ2'11
Vol ($B)YOY Chg
H1’11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Offi ce $8.5 -8% $22.2 14%Retail 5.1 75% 9.8 15%Industrial 2.9 71% 4.9 52%All Commercial 16.5 19% 36.9 18%Hotel 1.6 13% 2.5 -11%Apartment 2.0 46% 4.0 25%Land 47.2 15% 127.4 11%Total $67.2 17% $170.8 12%
*Totals may not sum due to rounding
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1'08
2 3 4 1'09
2 3 4 1'10
2 3 4 1'11
2
CommercialApartmentHotelLand
Billion
RUS
FIN
AUT
ITA
MCO
ESP
SWE
NOR
DEU
FRA
PRT
HUNHRV ROU
BGR
TUR
DNK
POL
UKRCZE
NLD
BEL
CHE
ISR
IND
CHN
MYS
TWN
JPNKOR
AUS
NZL
GBR
USA
CAN
MEX
ARG
BRA
SGP
HKG
CHL
ARE
SVK
THA
ZAF
QAT
IRL
SAU
PER
MNE
VNM
GRC
SRB
50–100%0–20% >100%20–50%-50–0%<-50%INCREASEDECREASE
PERCENT CHANGE IN TRANSACTION VOLUME(H1’10 VS H1’11)(H1’10 VS H1’11)
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUMEBY PROPERTY TYPE
Asia Pacifi c: Quarter in Review Summary
10©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
At the same time, land-hungry inves-tors have poured capital into Singapore and Hong Kong, especially as Hong Kong authorities greatly expanded available de-velopment sites in Q2, a policy they are ex-pected to continue into Q3 as over $1.7b of sites were sold just in July.
Within Asia Paci� c, the di� erences in yields are signi� cant. Yields in Hong Kong, now averaging slight-
ly above 3.0% are by far the lowest in Asia and throughout the world. Stunningly, 36 signi� cant assets traded in Hong Kong in H1 at a 3.5% yield or lower, mostly strata retail units. Average cap rates in Asia (ex-Japan), displayed an uptick in Q2, but mainly due to an increasing number of transactions recorded in markets such as South Korea and Taiwan. Meanwhile,
Australia is o� ering some of the highest yields, per-haps explaining the recent surge in acquisitions there. A summary of select o� ce sales of recently construct-ed or renovated properties highlights the sharp dif-ferences in cap rates available in major and secondary markets throughout AsiaPac.
Billion Billion Billion
RECENTLY BUILT OR RENOVATED OFFICE BUILDING SALES IN Q2
Property City Price ($M)
PPSF/ PPU ($K) Cap Rate Built/
Renov
Arena Tower Yokohama $117.0 605 5.6% 2008
SA Water House Adelaide 98.5 587 7.6% r2010
Akihabara Business Center Tokyo 62.3 1,359 4.8% 2009
BAML HarbourFront Singapore 246.6 1,139 4.3% 2008
Wood Group House Perth 33.2 668 9.3% 2011
CAP RATES* CAP RATES CAP RATES
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY THEATEROFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
ASIA - EX JAPAN JAPAN AUSTRALIA - NZ
*Q4'10 excludes several industrial sales at high cap rates
11©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
1'08
2 3 4 1'09
2 3 4 1'10
2 3 4 1'11
2
Rolling 12 months totalQuarterly Vol
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
'08 '09 '10 '11
acqdispnet
Australia’s property markets zoomed back into recovery mode in Q2 af-ter a steep retreat the prior quarter,
rising 127% yoy to $4.5b in commercial property sales alone. Australia’s tradition-ally higher yields—averaging over 8.3% in Q2—have drawn cross-border investment at a phenomenal clip, accounting for 42% of Australia’s total investment volume in Q2. � e capital originated with relative uniformity from each of the global zones.
Net cross-border acquisitions so far this year have already outpaced the combined total for 2009 and 2010. � e 2011 tally does not yet include Blackstone’s pending $764m acquisition of all the assets of Valad Properties, likely to close in mid-August. � e deal illustrates one source of assets that is contributing to the rising percent-age of foreign investment: Australian listed companies have been net sellers this year, with major dispositions by some of the most active companies, including Stock-land, Mirvac and Lend Lease. In contrast, dispositions by foreign owners account for less than $500m in volume, against nearly $4.0b in cross-border acquisitions.
Melbourne has captured over 50% of cross-border and overall investment, in-cluding the largest single-asset transaction so far this year. CPPIB from Canada, ac-quired a 50% interest in Northland Shop-ping Centre for nearly $1.0b, and Brook-� eld O� ce Properties was also an active investor. Other large deals include a $219m acquisition of a mixed-use complex by La-Salle and the purchase in Sydney by K-RE-IT of a 50% stake in an o� ce development project for $330m.
Singaporean investors have also been very active, representing a sizeable Asian investment contingent mainly in Victoria, Queensland, and New South Wales. � ese include the aforementioned K-REIT trans-action as well as the acquisition by GIC of multiple industrial assets including a large portfolio from Australand. Even European capital has been making the long swim to Australia, with Swiss, British, and German investors joining the value hunt.
ORIGIN OF CROSS-BORDER INVESTORS IN AUSTRALIA*
EMEA29% Americas
39%
AsiaPac32%
* Data based on past 12 months
CROSS-BORDER ACQUISITIONS AND DISPOSITIONS IN AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA TRANSACTION VOLUMEOFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
Billion
Quar
terly
Vol
Rolli
ng 1
2-m
onth
s
Australia Rebounds on Cross-Border Buying
See all the details on these deals and keep up with this evolving trend using RCACross-border Capital Tracker at www.rcanalytics.com
12©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
China Vanke Co Ltd $3,048 Yunnan Zhonghao Props 2,714 Poly Real Estate Group 2,128 Wheelock & Co 2,105 Greentown China Hldgs Ltd 2,099 Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd 2,034 CapitaLand Limited 1,794 China Overseas L & I Ltd 1,650 CPP Investment Board 1,587 Financial Street Hldg Co Ltd 1,536 China Merchants Group 1,517 Far East Organization 1,423 SOHO China 1,350 Shimao Group 1,286 Farglory Land Dev Co., Ltd. 1,219 HSBC Holdings 1,197 Mitsubishi Estate 1,174 Keppel Land Limited 1,146 Sumitomo 1,133 Mitsui Fudosan 1,109
Urban Redev Authority $3,356 Housing & Dev Board 2,821 CITIC Group 1,780 Lone Star Partners 1,230 Promise Co Ltd 877 Mori Trust Holdings 762 Munich Re 715 ERGO Group 706 Wheelock & Co 703 Harvest Capital Partners 700 Tokyo Gas 700 JTC Corporation 680 Asia Pacifi c Land Limited 666 DE Shaw Group 666 Urban Renaissance Agency 653 Mitsui Fudosan 635 CapitaLand Limited 625 Mapletree 612 Goodman Group 589 Stockland Trust Group 566
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 DEV Borrett Road Site, Mid-levels Hong Kong, HKG $1,498 113 $13,266 Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd
2 RET Northland Shopping Centre Preston East, AUS 998 994 1,004 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
3 DEV Shenzhen 2011-K202-0014 Shenzhen, CHN 991 7,509 132 China Merchants Property Dev Co Ltd
4 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks (Prt II) Beijing, CHN 929 848 1,095 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
5 OFF Otemachi PAL Bldg Tokyo, JPN 877 301 2,916 Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd JV Mitsui & Co
6 DEV Changsha 2011-001 Changsha, CHN 855 800 1,068 Wharf Holdings
7 DEV Punggol Central & Punggol Walk Singapore, SGP 799 323 2,475 Frasers Centrepoint Ltd‡
8 DEV Boon Lay Way Singapore, SGP 791 194 4,085 CapitaMalls Asia JV HSBC Bank
9 OFF Capital Square Singapore, SGP 700 387 1,810 Alpha Investment Partners (AIP)‡
10 OFF The Fifth Square Beijing, CHN 682 1,009 677 China Minmetals Corporation
11 DEV Nanjing 2011G07 Nanjing, CHN 681 3,667 186 Shimao Property Holdings Ltd‡
12 DEV Toyosu District Site Tokyo, JPN 680 1,132 601 Tokyo Metropolitan Government
13 OFF The Centre Shanghai, CHN 666 963 692 China Pacifi c Insurance (Group) Co Ltd
14 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks Beijing, CHN 607 848 716 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
15 DEV Yiwu 2011017 Yiwu, CHN 594 883 672 Guangsha Construction
16 IND Hong Kong Interlink Project Hong Kong, HKG 589 2,400 245 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
17 DEV Stubbs Road Site Hong Kong, HKG 578 160 3,605 Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
18 DEV Yiwu 2010044 Yiwu, CHN 559 334 1,674 Sunion (Sanlian) Group
19 DEV Nanjing 2011G14 Nanjing, CHN 508 2,458 207 Nanjing Qingao Development Co Ltd‡
20 DEV 3-1 Ariake-Kita Tokyo, JPN 506 1,186 427 Sumitomo Realty & Development Co Ltd
21 DEV Qingdao 2011-04 Qingdao, CHN 499 2,930 170 Qingdao Zhonghai Huaye RE Co. Ltd.
22 OFF Toyosu Center Bldg Tokyo, JPN 497 1,072 463 IHI Corporation
23 OFF SK Building Seoul, KOR 495 863 573 SK Corporation‡
24 OFF New World Changning Com Ctr Shanghai, CHN 493 1,079 457 SOHO China
25 DEV Shanghai 201100510 Shanghai, CHN 476 1,482 321 Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Ltd
TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 OFF Kokusai Shin-Akasaka Towers Tokyo, JPN $1,066 863 $1,236 Mitsubishi Estate Company, Limited
2 DEV Greentown China Govt Land Ptfl Taizhou, CHN 1,011 7,386 137 Greentown China Holdings Limited
3 DEV Kunming Guandu KC2010-76 Kunming, CHN 987 22,158 45 Yunnan Zhonghao Properties Co Ltd
4 OFF Mapletree Com Trust Ptfl 2011 Singapore, SGP 625 733 853 Mapletree Commercial Trust
5 MIX Perennial China RET Trust IPO '11 Shenyang, CHN 575 6,119 94 Perennial China RET Trust
6 MIX Waterfront Place Brisbane, AUS 510 714 714 Australian Government Future Fund
7 DEV Greentown China Govt Land Ptfl Shenyang, CHN 476 12,263 39 Greentown China Holdings Limited
8 DEV Dadong Plot 1&2 Zhenjiang, CHN 464 3,439 135 China Merchants Property Dev Co Ltd
9 DEV Wharf Hldgs Govt Land Ptfl Suzhou, CHN 442 2,502 176 Wharf Holdings
10 DEV Taiwan Govt Land Ptfl 2011 Sinjhuang, TWN 412 246 1,678 Farglory Land Development Co., Ltd.
11 DEV JiShu Housing Govt Land Ptfl Suzhou, CHN 391 1,907 205 JiShu Housing Co Ltd‡
12 DEV Wheelock Props Ltd Foshan Ptfl '11 Foshan, CHN 372 6,153 61 Wharf Holdings
13 DEV Beijing Huaye Govt Land Ptfl Beijing, CHN 353 277 1,276 Beijing HOMYEAR RE Company Ltd
14 IND Sagawa Express Warehouses Multiple, JPN 348 1,541 226 SG Realty
15 DEV Zhonghai Govt Land Ptfl Qingdao, CHN 338 2,093 162 China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd
TOP 20 BUYERS#Vol
($M)
TOP 20 SELLERS #Vol
($M)
Asia Pacifi c: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
13©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
APAR
TMEN
TIN
DU
STR
IAL
OFF
ICE
RET
AIL
HO
TEL
LAN
D S
ITE
GR
AND
TO
TAL*
YOY
CH
ANG
E
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol
Prop
s
Asia Pacifi cAsia
Chin
a
Beiji
ng$1
,574
10$1
851
1$6
,711
62$8
,512
74-3
9%-1
4%
Shan
ghai
491
2,23
916
221
27,
740
102
10,2
5012
1-1
1%98
%
Tian
jin10
82
4,04
510
54,
154
107
-42%
22%
Hang
zhou
4,57
282
4,57
282
-17%
14%
Dalia
n3,
006
403,
006
40-3
1%-5
%
Nan
jing
3,03
229
3,03
229
112%
71%
Shen
zhen
612
129
140
11,
371
91,
602
1332
0%11
7%
Chon
gqin
g3,
421
393,
421
3936
%22
%
Guan
gzho
u14
71
541
1,61
523
1,81
625
171%
150%
Dong
guan
705
2470
524
0%41
%
Nan
tong
727
1172
711
-21%
-21%
Chan
gsha
1,49
29
1,49
29
28%
-36%
Shen
yang
236
243
32
4,26
684
4,93
688
172%
83%
Xiam
en32
411
324
11-8
1%-5
0%
Chin
a ot
her
342
221
1,72
815
611
67,2
021,
232
69,0
471,
251
37%
51%
Hong
Kon
gHo
ng K
ong
486
91,
443
262,
123
702,
021
8216
72
3,25
519
9,49
420
83%
8%
Indi
aIn
dia,
all
112
318
45
231
353
964
101,
318
22-5
6%38
%
Japa
n
Toky
o1,
551
5181
711
6,91
870
861
1184
22,
540
4612
,770
191
-7%
-11%
Osak
a28
311
140
115
74
162
246
128
66
1,07
425
12%
-11%
Japa
n ot
her
886
188
612
22
607
797
434
21,
136
273%
-40%
Mal
aysi
aKu
ala
Lum
pur
233
618
63
322
574
114
-27%
-50%
Mal
aysi
a ot
her
101
711
623
143
59%
0%
Sing
apor
eSi
ngap
ore,
all
1,08
317
854
302,
269
1224
22
647
46,
455
3211
,550
9711
9%62
%
Sout
h Ko
rea
Seou
l12
34
1,89
523
124
250
411
2,64
440
88%
43%
Sout
h Ko
rea
othe
r15
13
401
482
241
643
327
1035
%-3
8%
Taiw
anTa
iwan
, all
383
1663
719
417
1111
21
1,48
631
3,03
578
-26%
-4%
Asia
Oth
erAs
ia o
ther
207
312
51
886
483
1390
323
107%
53%
Tota
l*$3
,892
103
$4,1
8110
0$1
9,14
724
6$7
,423
146
$1,4
0326
$126
,683
2,04
3$1
62,7
302,
664
12%
28%
Australia / NZ
Aust
ralia
Mel
bour
ne31
129
611
527
91,
224
635
03
272
102,
701
4014
1%-2
2%
Sydn
ey33
231
310
955
2226
510
177
101,
743
54-1
5%32
%
Bris
bane
986
789
712
06
161
271
1,04
921
47%
5%
Pert
h28
87
875
684
443
16-4
5%-6
%
Aust
ralia
oth
er35
119
144
37
439
2255
811
132
71,
626
4952
%26
%
New
Zea
land
New
Zea
land
, all
975
209
1819
68
141
516
32-3
3%25
6%
Tota
l*$9
94
$725
28$3
,100
57$2
,343
67$1
,120
23$6
9033
$8,0
7721
224
%20
%
Asia
Pac
ific:
Tra
nsac
tions
by
Mar
ket i
n H
1’11
MID
-YE
AR
RE
VIE
WA
UG
US
T 2
01
1
14©
2011
Rea
l Cap
ital A
naly
tics,
Inc.
All
right
s re
serv
ed. D
ata
belie
ved
to b
e ac
cura
te b
ut n
ot g
uara
ntee
d; s
ubje
ct to
futu
re re
visi
on; b
ased
on
prop
ertie
s &
por
tfol
ios
$10m
and
gre
ater
.
Investment volume in the Americas surged to $55.6b in Q2, a 115% increase from a year earlier, just shy of the year-
end spike in transactions recorded in Q4’10. � e acceleration in sales cut across all property sectors and was dominated by the US, up 124% year over year (yoy), the highest gain among major economies globally. Prices were generally stable or improved over the quarter, but the dichot-omy in pricing between the favored major markets and all others persisted through-out the Americas.
A� er an explosive start to the year, di-rect property sales in Brazil fell 32% in Q2, yet there have been a hand-ful of recent real estate M&A deals and development joint ventures an-nounced. Canada recorded sales of $4.5b in Q2, up 8% yoy, but forward-looking activity is
already strong in Q3.Portfolios accounted for $26.7b of
Americas’ sales in H1’11, including the $9.2b acquisition of Centro’s US shop-ping centers by Blackstone. Nearly $10.0b of portfolio transactions are in contract, mostly in the US or Canada. � e rise in large multi-market portfolio signals a growing bullishness on entire property sectors as opposed to smaller bets on spe-ci� c assets in favored markets.
For the � rst half of 2011, property sales in the Americas totaled $91.2b and ap-pear on a trajectory to easily surpass the $200.0b mark for the year, almost quadru-pling 2009 volume. Yet recent turmoil in the bond market slowed originations by US CMBS conduits, at least temporarily.
Commercial property yields were sta-ble to slightly lower throughout most of the Americas in Q2 and in the US have been at similar levels since the beginning of the year.
TRANSACTION SUMMARYQ2'11
Vol ($B)YOY Chg
H1’11Vol ($B)
YOY Chg
Offi ce $14.8 47% $26.0 73%Retail 15.5 282% 21.6 154%Industrial 5.8 86% 10.3 89%All Commercial 36.1 110% 57.9 100%Hotel 4.6 170% 8.7 168%Apartment 13.2 137% 21.1 105%Land 1.7 26% 3.5 39%Total $55.6 115% $91.2 102%
*Totals may not sum due to rounding
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
1'08
2 3 4 1'09
2 3 4 1'10
2 3 4 1'11
2
CommercialApartmentHotelLand
Billion
RUS
FIN
AUT
ITA
MCO
ESP
SWE
NOR
DEU
FRA
PRT
HUNHRV ROU
BGR
TUR
DNK
POL
UKRCZE
NLD
BEL
CHE
ISR
IND
CHN
MYS
TWN
JPNKOR
AUS
NZL
GBR
USA
CAN
MEX
ARG
BRA
SGP
HKG
CHL
ARE
SVK
THA
ZAF
QAT
IRL
SAU
PER
MNE
VNM
GRC
SRB
50–100%0–20% >100%20–50%-50–0%<-50%INCREASEDECREASE
PERCENT CHANGE IN TRANSACTION VOLUME(H1’10 VS H1’11)(H1’10 VS H1’11)
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUMEBY PROPERTY TYPE
Americas: Quarter in Review Summary
15©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
1 '08
2 3 4 1 '09
2 3 4 1 '10
2 3 4 1 '11
2
Even in top markets such as Manhattan and DC, cap rates have been remarkably stable over the past two quarters. Canada has seen the most movement with yields falling over 25bps since the beginning of the year.
By property type, average US cap rates in H1’11 are � at across most sectors, except industrial and sub-
urban o� ce properties. � ese sectors have been the slowest to attract inves-tors in the recovery, but their yields were down slightly. Across all sectors, yields for prime assets are signi� cantly lower than the average and this gap is at histori-cally wide levels, a trend that shows no signs of abating even as investors begin to stretch their horizons.
Billion Billion Billion
CAP RATES CAP RATES CAP RATES
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL YOY CHANGE IN TRANS VOL
US AVERAGE CAP RATES
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY THEATEROFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
UNITED STATES CANADA LATIN AMERICA
16©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
1'08
2 3 4 1'09
2 3 4 1'10
2 3 4 1'11
2
Rolling 12 months totalQuarterly Vol
23%
6%
29%
6%15%
10%25%
40%14%
54%12%
7%
16%
7%
34%45%
53%
2008 2009 2010 2011User/Other PrivatePublic Listed/REITs Cross-BorderInstitutional
Some $15.6b of distressed property traded in the US in H1’11, more than double the H1’10 level as lend-
ers increasingly chose to liquidate as op-posed to modify and restructure troubled mortgages. A year ago, half of all workouts were accomplished via loan modi� cations, dubbed “extend and pretend.” � at ratio had shi� ed dramatically to favor liquida-tions by six-to-one over modi� cations. As credit conditions and property prices have improved, lenders are moving more aggressively and decisively away from pre-tend-and-extend.
BUYER COMPOSITION
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
07 08 09 10 11
BRAZIL AVERAGE PPSF*
sf
BillionDespite the decline in activity in Q2, Brazil appears on its way to establish a new record for transaction volume
in 2011 having already surpassed $4.0b of transactions at the mid-year point. Pricing is also in record territory with the average for commercial properties reaching $450/sf last quarter.
While Brazil is drawing increased inter-est and exploration from many global in-vestors, domestic institutional capital has been driving the recent spike in activity. Brazil-based institutions were responsible for more than half of acquisitions so far in 2011 and its share of acquisitions has in-creased steadily over the past three years. Recent transactions include Prosperitas’ $1.1b acquisition of Bracor, a prestigious owner of business parks and a joint ven-ture between Carlos Betancourt and Sam Zell’s Equity International Group. Other institutional investors such as BTG Pac-tual, Funcef, WWI Group and Previ have all made signi� cant acquisitions recently. In addition, cross-border institutional in-vestors have been clearly on the prowl for direct property acquisitions, entity-level investments, and development joint ven-tures.
BRAZIL TRANSACTION VOLUMEOFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
Quar
terly
Vol
Rolli
ng 1
2-m
onth
s
US: End of Pretend & Extend
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
1'08
2 3 4 1'09
2 3 4 1'10
2 3 4 1'11
2
DistressTotal Sales
DISTRESSED PROPERTY SALESBillion
*Commercial properties only
Brazil: A Growing Institutional Market
17©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
Blackstone $8,227 Vornado Realty Trust 1,867 Invesco Real Estate 1,330 JP Morgan 1,313 Prosperitas 1,297 Related Companies 1,187 Oaktree 1,056 Network World Market Ctr 1,005 Bain Capital 1,005 SL Green 1,000 Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 884 Sunstone Hotel Investors 855 USAA Real Estate 807 Equity One 807 Westbrook Partners 780 Wells Real Estate Funds 758 Bassett Furniture 730 Teacher Retirement Sys of Texas 681 Cole Real Estate Investments 655 Area Property Partners 640
Centro Properties Group $7,974 Goldman Sachs 1,783 Broadway Partners 1,715 Bracor Invts Imobiliarios 1,297 Equity Residential 1,345 Beacon Capital Partners 1,172 Lehman Brothers Hldgs Inc 1,108 Investcorp 1,000 Hines Interests LP 959 GE Capital 918 Highgate Holdings 792 Monday Properties 763 Murray Hill Properties 740 Blackstone 756 Shorenstein Properties 697 Equity One 656 RREEF 671 Related Companies 667 Vornado Realty Trust 650 Brookfi eld Asset Mgmt 660
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 OFF 280 Park Avenue† New York, NY $1,100 1,179 $941 SL Green JV Vornado
2 OFF Helmsley Building New York, NY 763 1,213 629 Invesco Real Estate
3 OFF Market Square East & West Washington, DC 615 680 905 Wells Real Estate Funds, Inc
4 HTL Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego, CA 570 1,625 351 Host HTLs & Resorts Inc
5 OFF Landmark Center Boston, MA 531 950 558 JP Morgan Asset Management‡
6 OFF 450 West 33rd Street New York, NY 525 1,750 300 Brookfi eld OFF Properties
7 OFF 750 Seventh Avenue New York, NY 485 591 820 Fosterlane Management
8 HTL Hilton San Diego Bayfront San Diego, CA 475 1,190 399 Sunstone HTL Investors
9 APT Independence Plaza North New York, NY 473 1,334 355 Vornado Realty Trust‡
10 OFF One Park Avenue† New York, NY 394 957 411 Vornado Realty Trust
11 OFF Atrium on Bay Toronto, CAN 356 1,070 333 H&R Real Estate Investment Trust
12 OFF Waterfront Station Washington, DC 356 635 561 USAA Real Estate
13 OFF Four Allen Center Houston, TX 340 1,260 270 Chevron Corp
14 HTL Radisson Lexington New York, NY 336 712 471 DiamondRock Hospitality Co
15 OFF Parsons HQ Pasadena, CA 325 932 349 Lincoln Property Co‡
16 RET fmr NBA Store New York, NY 324 39 8,361 Inditex
17 APT One Superior Place Chicago, IL 320 809 396 Hartz Mountain Industries
18 HTL YOTEL New York, NY 315 669 471 IFA HTLs & Resorts (IFA HR)‡
19 HTL New York Helmsley HTL New York, NY 314 773 406 Host HTLs & Resorts Inc
20 OFF Bell Tower Montreal, CAN 296 975 304 Dundee REIT
21 OFF Horizon in Playa Vista Los Angeles, CA 294 501 587 JP Morgan Asset Management
22 OFF 499 Illinois St San Francisco, CA 293 453 646 Alexandria RE Equities
23 OFF US Steel Tower Pittsburgh, PA 287 2,300 125 Mark Karasick
24 HTL Doubletree Guest Suites Times New York, NY 286 460 622 Sunstone HTL Investors
25 APT Liberty Towers Jersey City, NJ 280 648 432 JP Morgan Asset Management
TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALESType Transaction Location Price
($M)SF(K)/Units
PPSF/PPU (K) Buyer
1 RET Centro United States Portfolio Multiple, USA $9,150 99,051 $92 Blackstone
2 IND Bracor IND Portfolio 11 Multiple, BRA 1,322 10,764 123 Prosperitas
3 MIX Capital and Counties Mix Ptfl Multiple, CA 600 2,106 253 Equity One‡
4 IND World Market Center Portfolio Las Vegas, NV 600 4,832 124 Bain Capital‡
5 RET Ivanhoe Cambridge RET Portfolio Multiple, CAN 591 2,507 236 Primaris RET REIT
6 APT Magazine Portfolio Sale 2011 Mid-Atlantic 460 2,580 178 Pantzer Properties‡
7 OFF Eola OFF Portfolio 11 Multiple, USA 380 2,471 154 Parkway Properties‡
8 OFF CBRE Duke Realty JV Multiple, USA 343 2,050 167 CB Richard Ellis Realty Trust
9 OFF Hartz OFF Portfolio 11 Jersey City, NJ 310 827 375 CB Richard Ellis Investors
10 APT Starwood/Bainbridge Mid-Atlantic 287 1,626 176 Starwood Capital Group‡
11 RET Regency/Macquarie Portfolio Multiple, USA 280 2,329 120 USAA Real Estate
12 APT AvalonBay Apt Portfolio 11 Multiple, USA 263 1,060 248 United Dominion Realty Trust
13 APT UDR Apt Portfolio 11 Multiple, CA 263 1,418 176 AvalonBay Communities
14 APT AREA-ECI SE APT JV Southeast 262 2,746 95 Area Property Partners
15 APT Camden Acquires Apt Ptfl 11 Multiple, TX 261 2,957 88 Camden Property Trust‡
TOP 20 BUYERS#Vol
($M)
TOP 20 SELLERS #Vol
($M)
Americas: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
18©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
APAR
TMEN
TIN
DU
STR
IAL
OFF
ICE
RET
AIL
HO
TEL
LAN
D S
ITE
GR
AND
TO
TAL*
YOY
CH
ANG
E
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol (
$M)
# Pr
ops
Vol
Prop
s
The AmericasNorth America
Cana
daTo
ront
o$3
1821
$413
17$9
1620
$1,0
6913
$48
2$1
275
$2,8
9178
8%-7
%Ca
lgar
y15
111
48
424
777
345
167
520
2%-3
1%Ca
nada
oth
er78
230
516
411,
334
391,1
7571
131
726
913
4,20
720
14%
-12%
Unite
d St
ates
NYC
Met
ro2,
890
8147
024
5,37
761
1,68
670
1,81
319
425
1212
,661
267
124%
79%
LA M
etro
1,97
361
873
451,
827
341,1
2042
598
1218
78
6,57
720
215
1%94
%DC
Met
ro2,
114
4325
28
3,57
656
604
2268
614
153
77,
386
150
69%
79%
SF M
etro
1,62
510
055
530
1,68
339
1,09
426
523
715
25
5,63
120
790
%15
6%Ch
icag
o70
113
727
3848
911
1,06
142
178
869
23,
226
114
310%
235%
Atla
nta
826
3722
89
476
1164
039
174
646
22,
390
104
219%
215%
So F
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916
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629
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2,71
091
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1020
04
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1,71
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160%
175%
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111,1
5717
245
1834
47
2,54
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67%
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291
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1224
311
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41,
597
4619
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211
620
511
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728
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1,53
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Unite
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3,02
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764
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,608
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Carib
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,226
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5,86
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102%
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South America
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l Cap
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and
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ater
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20©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
CBRE21%
CBRE20%
CBRE13%
JLL6%
JLL23%
JLL12%
Eastdil15%
C&W8%
C&W 4%
C&W6%
Savills16%
Savills6%
HFF7%
Colliers 2%
Colliers11%
Colliers 1%
Knight Frank 4%
Knight Frank 5%
DTZ 5%
DTZ 4%
BNP4%
M&M 3%
Catella 2%King Sturge
Cassidy 2%
GVA 2%
ARA 2%
Pangea
G&E 1%
Others31%
Others17%
Others40%
Americas AsiaPac EMEA
Changing Landscape for Agents
A wave of mergers and acquisitions among commercial property bro-kers has been underway in recent
months. Among the targets are some sig-ni� cant players: DTZ, King Sturge, NAI Global and others. Most of the deals are strategic consolidations as the industry remains highly fragmented. While in-vestment agency is just one of many busi-ness lines for the major brokerage � rms, it is clear that the landscape for the in-vestment sector is changing quickly.
In investment sales, Jones Lang LaSalle is signi� cantly enhancing its European mar-ket share with King Sturge. BNP stands to almost double its market share in Europe
and establish a signi� cant pres-ence in Asia if combined with DTZ. � e acquisition of NAI Global by experienced investor Andrew Farkas of C-III could result in a new competitive force. � e same holds for Rock-wood, the former US a� liate of DTZ which is being acquired by a unit of equity fund heavy-weight Fortress. BGC Partners
has entered into an agreement to acquire Newmark, the real estate advisory � rm which operates as Newmark Knight Frank in the U.S. � eir alliance with London-based Knight Frank remains una� ected. � e Relative Market Share of Investment Brokerage chart highlights how fragmented the industry is, and how ripe it is for further consolidation. Europe is perhaps the most fragmented and Asia Pac the least. It also illustrates the di� culties many of the large European � rms have had in establishing signi� cant presence in the US, and high-lights the leading contenders to dominate Asia’s booming property markets. Only � ve � rms currently have a signi� cant market share across all global zones: CBRE, JLL, C&W, Colliers and Savills, but if the recent wave of M&A continues, expect a sixth or seventh global platform soon.
RECENT BROKERAGE M&AStatus Acquirer Target
Proposed SGL/BNP or UGL DTZ
Pending Jones Lang LaSalle King Sturge
Pending C-III Capital Partners NAI Global
Pending BGC Partners (Cantor) Newmark Knight Frank
Closed CWCapital Rockwood (fmr DTZ)
Pending Cassidy Turley Carter
RELATIVE MARKET SHARE FOR INVESTMENT BROKERAGE*
(by dollar volume, 12 months through June 2011)
*Based upon the percentage of brokered deals for property sales of US$10m+ involving all property types. Credit is given to both buy-side and sell-side representation and full credit is given to multiple different brokers involved in same deal. Based on published reports and RCA’s own research which is believed to be comprehensive, but not entirely complete. Over the past year, RCA has recorded a broker for 43% of EMEA transactions, 25% of AsiaPac transactions (excluding China land deals), and 62% of Americas transactions.
21©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
Peak-Era Buyers: Where Are They Now?
Reverberations from the world-wrench-ing � nancial crisis that upended global property markets in 2008 are still being
felt. One indicator of just how much ground was lost, and how much has been regained, is in the ranks of the most aggressive buyers from the 2007 peak that are still active today. Based on this indicator, AsiaPac has been the most resilient with 82 of the top 100 buyers in 2007 having bought at least one property since the beginning of 2010. In the US, the number is surprisingly high with 81 still active owing largely to greater non-recourse lending and the “pretend and extend” strategy employed by lenders until recently. Europe has been hardest
hit with only 60 of the most active buyers at the peak still buying.
But the strengths and weaknesses of all three zones are even more evident in the persever-ance of those at the very top, the 20 most active buyers in the year preceding the � nancial crisis and global recession. On those terms, only one buyer has vanished from Asia, while � ve from the US and 11 from Europe have been elimi-nated. Most of those that have dropped out are from countries with severe internal � nancial problems, such as Ireland, or from companies that have been liquidated, like Lehman Broth-ers. � e complete reports and lists are available for download on our website.
Top Buyers at PeakEurope United States AsiaPac
Company Still Buying* Company Still
Buying* Company Still Buying*
1 Unibail-Rodamco Blackstone Morgan Stanley
2 Morgan Stanley Tishman Speyer National Pension Service (NPS)
3 Avestus Capital Partners - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc - Prudential
4 Goldman Sachs** - Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi Estate
5 IVG Immobilien GE Capital - CapitaLand Limited
6 Metrovacesa - Goldman Sachs Wheelock & Co
7 Aviva PLC Beacon Capital Partners Sino Land Company Limited -
8 Aberdeen Property Investors Broadway Partners - LaSalle Investment Management
9 Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA - Brookfi eld Asset Management Macquarie Glob Prop Advs (MGPA)
10 Pearl Group - Prudential RE Investors China Vanke Co Ltd
11 Electra Ltd - BlackRock DB RREEF
12 ING Group Centro Properties Group - Tokyo Tatemono Co Ltd
13 RREEF TIAA-CREF GIC RE (Govt of Singapore)
14 Prudential PLC Lightstone Group Nan Fung Group
15 Propinvest Group - CalSTRS Kerry Properties Limited
16 SEB Group Chetrit Group China Overseas Land & Invt Ltd
17 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc - CalPERS K Wah International
18 GE Capital - Simon Property Group Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
19 Immofi nanz JP Morgan Hong Leong Group
20 Evans Randall Dubai World - Tokyu Land Corporation
B Buyer S Seller Broker
Property Name SF/Units PriceAddress Year Built PPSF/PPU Location Property Type Qualifi er
AMERICASHelmsley Building 1212,576 $763,266,667 230 Park Ave 1929 $629 New York, United States Offi ce confi rmed
Atrium on Bay 1070,287 $356,221,543 595 Bay St 1981 $333 Toronto, Canada Offi ce confi rmed
The Corner 196 $209,000,000 200 W 72nd St 2007 $1,066,327 New York, United States Apartment approximate
Millennium Warner Center 438 $132,883,333 21201 Kittridge St 2010 $303,387 Woodland Hills, United States Apartment approximate
Rockhill Apartments 1000 $120,417,957 4858 Chemin De La Côte-des-neiges 1968 $120,418 Montreal, Canada Apartment street talk
Prime Outlets Jeffersonville I 409,959 $134,000,000 8000 Factory Shops Blvd 1993 $327 Jeffersonville, United States Retail confi rmed
Scottsdale Promenade 433,533 $110,000,000 16447 N Scottsdale Rd 1999 $254 Scottsdale, United States Retail confi rmed
New York Palace Hotel 899 $377,000,000 455 Madison Ave 1981 $419,355 New York, United States Hotel approximate
YOTEL 669 $315,000,000 440 W 42nd St 2011 $470,852 New York, United States Hotel approximate
future Shopping 204,516 $164,504,902 Avenida Paulista 1904 $804 Sao Paulo, Brazil Dev Site approximate
MidCity Place 352,000 $467,685,744 71 High Holborn 2001 $1,329 London, GBR Offi ce approximate
Aviva Tower 315,000 $427,906,742 1 Undershaft 1969 $1,358 London, GBR Offi ce approximate
TDC 871,884 $243,695,329 Teglholmsgade 1 1988 $280 Copenhagen, DNK Offi ce approximate
Eye of Ajman 6,271,420 $406,111,785 Sheikh Kjalifa Bin Zayed St 104 And Emirates Rd $65 Ajman, United Arab Emirates Dev Site street talk
B Buyer S Seller Broker
Property Name SF/Units PriceAddress Year Built PPSF/PPU Location Property Type Qualifi er
EMEA
Reported in the Past 3 MonthsSelected Investment Sales Transactions
B Invesco Real Estate by Houlihan Lokey from S Monday Properties ‡
B H&R Real Estate Investment Trust from S Hines Real Estate Investment Trust Inc by Brookfi eld Financial BMO Capital Markets
B TIAA-CREF from S Gotham Organization Inc JV Philips International JV Rhodes New York by CB Richard Ellis
B Essex Property Trust from S Dinerstein Companies by Institutional Property Advisors - Marcus & Millichap Company
B Ivanhoe Cambridge from S Canapen
B Tanger Factory Outlet from Simon Property Group by Jones Lang LaSalle
B Excel Trust Inc from S Levine Investments LP by Lucescu Realty
B Northwood Investors LLC from S Brunei Investment Agency (BIA)
B IFA Hotels & Resorts JV Kuwait Real Estate Co by Hodges Ward Elliott Inc from S Related Companies JV Goldman Sachs
B Groupe Allard from S Previ
B OMERS OBO Oxford Properties Group by Farebrother from S Beacon Capital Partners by GM Real Estate
B Kuok Koon Hong & Martua Sitorus by Jones Lang LaSalle DLA from S CBRE Loan Servicing (CBRELS) by CB Richard Ellis
B KLP Ejendomme A/S from S TDC Pensionskasse
B OMERS OBO Oxford Properties Group by Farebrother from S Beacon Capital Partners by GM Real Estate
‡ JV
22©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
Peak-Era Buyers: Where Are They Now?
Reverberations from the world-wrench-ing � nancial crisis that upended global property markets in 2008 are still being
felt. One indicator of just how much ground was lost, and how much has been regained, is in the ranks of the most aggressive buyers from the 2007 peak that are still active today. Based on this indicator, AsiaPac has been the most resilient with 82 of the top 100 buyers in 2007 having bought at least one property since the beginning of 2010. In the US, the number is surprisingly high with 81 still active owing largely to greater non-recourse lending and the “pretend and extend” strategy employed by lenders until recently. Europe has been hardest
hit with only 60 of the most active buyers at the peak still buying.
But the strengths and weaknesses of all three zones are even more evident in the persever-ance of those at the very top, the 20 most active buyers in the year preceding the � nancial crisis and global recession. On those terms, only one buyer has vanished from Asia, while � ve from the US and 11 from Europe have been elimi-nated. Most of those that have dropped out are from countries with severe internal � nancial problems, such as Ireland, or from companies that have been liquidated, like Lehman Broth-ers. � e complete reports and lists are available for download on our website.
Top Buyers at PeakEurope United States AsiaPac
Company Still Buying* Company Still
Buying* Company Still Buying*
1 Unibail-Rodamco Blackstone Morgan Stanley
2 Morgan Stanley Tishman Speyer National Pension Service (NPS)
3 Avestus Capital Partners - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc - Prudential
4 Goldman Sachs** - Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi Estate
5 IVG Immobilien GE Capital - CapitaLand Limited
6 Metrovacesa - Goldman Sachs Wheelock & Co
7 Aviva PLC Beacon Capital Partners Sino Land Company Limited -
8 Aberdeen Property Investors Broadway Partners - LaSalle Investment Management
9 Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA - Brookfi eld Asset Management Macquarie Glob Prop Advs (MGPA)
10 Pearl Group - Prudential RE Investors China Vanke Co Ltd
11 Electra Ltd - BlackRock DB RREEF
12 ING Group Centro Properties Group - Tokyo Tatemono Co Ltd
13 RREEF TIAA-CREF GIC RE (Govt of Singapore)
14 Prudential PLC Lightstone Group Nan Fung Group
15 Propinvest Group - CalSTRS Kerry Properties Limited
16 SEB Group Chetrit Group China Overseas Land & Invt Ltd
17 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc - CalPERS K Wah International
18 GE Capital - Simon Property Group Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited
19 Immofi nanz JP Morgan Hong Leong Group
20 Evans Randall Dubai World - Tokyu Land Corporation
B Buyer S Seller Broker
Property Name SF/Units PriceAddress Year Built PPSF/PPU Location Property Type Qualifi er
EMEAMorfa Shopping Park 335,000 $132,071,819 Brunel Way 2005 $394 Swansea, GBR Retail approximate
Old George Mall 137,000 $131,742,463 High St 1965 $962 Salisbury, GBR Retail confi rmed
E Space Tower 150,273 $297,270,749 3-6 Maruyamacho Shibuya-ku 2002 $1,978 Tokyo, Japan Offi ce confi rmed
Shanghai Port Intl Terminal No 1 230,350 $238,023,565 568 Dongdaming Rd $1,033 Shanghai, China Offi ce approximate
Hana Daetoo IB Bld 530,657 $223,026,734 Yeongdeungpo-gu Yeoeuido-dong 23-3 1994 $420 Seoul, South Korea Offi ce approximate
Anson House 76,127 $120,345,128 72 Anson Rd 1998 $1,581 Singapore, Singapore Offi ce approximate
Yodobashi Camera Kichioji 408,310 $370,349,808 1-19-1 Kichioji-honcho 1974 $907 Musashino, Japan Retail street talk
Shenyang Longemont Mall 2,252,819 $235,090,719 22 Pangjiang St 2011 $104 Shenyang, China Retail confi rmed
Red Star Macalline Mall 1,954,689 $198,291,227 Xing Hua Bei Jie 2010 $101 Shenyang, China Retail confi rmed
Nan Fung Plaza 176,000 $150,406,285 8 Pui Shing Rd 1999 $855 Hong Kong, Hong Kong Retail approximate
Ascott Beijing 310 $167,564,554 108b Jian Guo Rd 2002 $540,531 Beijing, China Hotel confi rmed
Lot No IL 8949 112,893 $1,497,635,236 21 Borrett Rd $13,266 Hong Kong, Hong Kong Dev Site approximate
Shenzhen 2011-K202-0014 7,509,397 $990,915,872 Nanshan Sheko $132 Shenzhen, China Dev Site approximate
CITIC City B,C,D blocks 848,196 $928,940,216 Caishikou Rd $1,095 Beijing, China Deb Site approximate
B Buyer S Seller Broker
Property Name SF/Units PriceAddress Year Built PPSF/PPU Location Property Type Qualifi er
ASIA PAC
Reported in the Past 3 MonthsSelected Investment Sales Transactions
B The Crown Estate by Wilkinson Williams from S Capital & Regional PLC JV Aviva PLC by Cushman & Wakefi eld
B Orchard Street Investment Management by Savills from S Doughty Hanson
B Daiwa Offi ce Investment Corp from S Daiwa Securities JV Goldman Sachs JV Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
B Baogang Resource from S Franshion Properties
B Mirae Asset MAPS Global Investments Co Ltd from S Hanshin Mutual Savings Bank JV Seongil Oh
B ING Real Estate from S Uncharted Hotels and Resorts Pte Ltd by Savills
B Hulic from S Lone Star Partners
B Perennial China Retail Trust from S Shanghai Summit (Group) Co Ltd
B Perennial China Retail Trust from S Shanghai Summit (Group) Co Ltd
B The Link Real Estate Investment Trust from S Bright Region Enterprise Limited JV Cloud Fort Development Limited
B Ascott Group from S CapitaLand Limited
B Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd from The Land Deparment
B China Merchants Property Development Co Ltd from S Chinese Government
B Financial Street Holding Co Ltd from S CITIC Real Estate
23©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
24©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
M I D - Y E A R R E V I E WA U G U S T 2 0 1 1
ABOUT REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
Real Capital Analytics, Inc (RCA) is an independent research firm focused exclusively on the capital investment markets for commercial real estate. RCA offers the most in-depth, comprehensive and current information of activity in the industry. Formed in 2000, RCA has offices in New York City, San Jose, and London. In addition to collecting transactional information for property sales and financing, RCA interprets the data including capital-ization rates, market trends, pricing and sales volume. The firm publishes a series of Capital Trends reports and offers an online service that provides real-time, global transactional market information. For more information, visit: www.rcanalytics.com.
ABOUT GLOBAL CAPITAL TRENDS
Global Capital Trends™ is published by Real Capital Analytics, Inc. Copy-right ©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
It is a violation of Federal law to photocopy or reproduce any part of this publication, or forward it electronically, without first obtaining permission from RCA. To subscribe as an individual or to purchase a corporate license for your office, please contact us at [email protected].
Information presented by RCA has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. While we have no reason to doubt its accuracy, RCA makes no representation or warranty regarding the information. The information is provided as is without warranties of any kind, express or implied, and may be subject to material revisions.
NOTES & METHODOLOGY
The information presented in this report is based on a proprietary data-base of commercial property transactions. With data integrity the primary concern, RCA has established a data collection and classification method-ology including sourcing requirements and other procedures to ensure the information is comprehensive, timely, accurate and completely objective.
The information contained in this report is based on sales of properties and portfolios valued $10m USD and greater. RCA endeavors to track all property sales within the specified property types above this threshold on a global basis.
The availability and reliability of property sales information varies greatly by country, but RCA endeavors to track transactions as comprehensively as possible via published reports, public filings, industry relationships and other proprietary means. In certain markets, RCA compliments its own research with data partners. Wherever possible, RCA attempts to conform to the standards and definitions adopted by the leading industry organizations.
Although averages provide a useful benchmark, commercial property is not a commodity. Each property and deal is unique and data points are not as plentiful as in other financial markets. The underlying specifics on each deal are available online at www.rcanalytics.com to subscribers only.
Geography: RCA divides the globe into three major regions:1. Americas: North and South America, and the Caribbean2. EMEA: Includes Europe, the Mid-East, and Africa3. Asia Pacific: Includes all parts of Asia (not including the Mid-East),
as well as Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific islands
Cross-Border Methodology: A transaction is defined as “cross-border” if the buyer or major capital partner is not headquartered in the same coun-try where the property is located. The buyer’s identity or country of origin is known for well over 90% of total volume. If the country of origin is not known, the buyer is assumed to be domestic. An increasing number of firms have subsidiaries accessing capital in multiple countries so a firm may have two headquarters locations for the purposes of this analysis. For example, ING Group is assumed to be based in the Netherlands for deals outside of the US while their acquisitions in the US are assumed to be made via its US headquartered subsidiary, ING Clarion. Deutsch Bank (DB Real Estate) and its RREEF unit are treated in a similar manner. For the purposes of this cross-border analysis, continental regions generally follow conventional definitions for continents except that the Middle East is treated as a sepa-rate continent and Hong Kong is treated as a separate country from China.
Property Types: This report is limited to office, industrial, retail, multi-family apartments, hotels and commercially developable land. Readers should note there is substantial investment activity not captured in this report outside these property types and below the $10m USD threshold.
Cap Rate: The initial annual un-leveraged return on an acquisition is known as the capitalization rate (yield is also used interchangeably throughout this report).
Prices: Prices are qualified as to the reliability of each source. Estimates of some prices are made using industry and market averages. Prices of prop-erties sold within a portfolio may be allocated pro rata (based on size) if individual pricing is not available. In either case, the estimates are excluded from any pricing analysis.
Transactions: Asset sales and entity-level transactions are included. Asset sales include properties that are sold individually (one-off) or with other properties in a portfolio. Entity-level sales include merger and acquisition activity of REITs and other real estate-owning companies. Transactions include only the sale of 50% or more and prices are grossed up to reflect a full valuation of the property.
Currency Conversion: Transaction prices are tracked in whatever currency is reported and are converted to USD, EUR, GBP and JPY based on the con-version rates in effect on the first day of the month when the transaction is reported to have occurred. Due to this, all price aggregations are composed of the sum of individually converted prices on the transaction level for the time period in discussion. For this reason pairs of figures representing volume in USD with its EUR equivalent do not represent a single conversion rate, currency conversion are on deal by deal basis at the time of transaction.
Measurement: Office, retail and industrial are tracked in square feet and square meters. Hotels and apartments are measured primarily by units based on the number of for “lease apartments” or hotel rooms in the property. Development sites are tracked in four units: hectares, acres, square feet and square meters and automatically converted to the alternate measures.
Global Land Methodology: RCA tracks the sale of plots of land that trade for more than $10m USD and are destined for commercial development. This includes the sale of land use rights in countries where plots are not traded on a freehold basis and where these rights are the equivalent of a land pur-chase in markets with freehold ownership rights.
Numbers Expressed as Text: 1K = 1 Thousand = 1,000 1m = 1 Million = 1,000,000 1B = 1 Billion = 1,000,000,000 1T = 1 Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000
Abbreviations: PPSF = Price Per Square Foot m2 = Per Square Meter BPS = Basis Points YOY = Year-Over-Year YTD = Year-To-Date Q1 = First Quarter of Year H1 = First Half of Year
Data PartnersTo become a data partner, please email [email protected]
Property Data in The United KingdomConfidencial Imobiliário in PortugalRP Data in AustraliaVastgoedmarkt in The NetherlandsKTI Property Information in FinlandE-Commercial in ChinaEconomic Prop. Research Ctr. (EPRC) in HKGJLR Real Estate Data Builders in CanadaVida Imobiliaria in Brazil
THOMAS DAILY in GermanyBulwienGesa AG in GermanyHBS-Research in FranceMate Plus in KoreaNikkei Business Publications in JapanGabetti Property Solutions in ItalyPrime in Costa RicaBregman-Baraz Real Estate in IsraelStrabo in Netherlands
ISO STANDARD COUNTRY CODES
REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
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Joe Mannina Chief Operating OfficerJohn Strand Dir, ResearchGrace (Tzu-Yu) Chin Sr Market AnalystKevin Imboden Sr Market AnalystLena Krivopaltsev Market AnalystLawrence Amasa Research ManagerLori Reisinger Research ManagerEve Neill Research ManagerMaria Carvalho Training Manager
Europe Office58 Grosvenor StreetLondon, United Kingdom W1K 3JB
Phone: +44.207.297.6860
Steve Williams Dir, Global Business DevRichard Yorke Dir, Europe Business DevMelanie Heath Mgr, Research Svcs & MarketingJoseph Kelly Dir, Market AnalysisKristina Andersson Research ManagerCigdem Giray-Guvener Research Specialist
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