Project Dynamics - System Dynamics Society India Chapter

Project DynamicsEmerging Insights & Opportunities

Mark D. ChoudhariThe Lotus Group of Companies

© Copyright 2012. Lotus Projects

PROJECT DYNAMICS

Define BOSS.

PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

PROJECT DYNAMICS

Define BOSS.

The Boss is a person who thinks that 9 women together can produce a child in 1 month.


PROJECT DYNAMICS

Define BOSS.


And if this target is achieved…

then he wants twins next month.


PROJECT DYNAMICS

Define BOSS.


And if this target is achieved then he wants twins next month.

And so Project Dynamics would help set the BOSS straight…


PROJECT DYNAMICS

Define BOSS.


And if this target is achieved then he wants twins next month.

And so Project Dynamics would help set the BOSS straight…

…or help deliver twins next month?


Agenda

• Introduction

• The Project Dynamics Approach

• Applications

• Future Work

• Integration Study

• Conclusions


Introduction

• Need to increase project success rates amidst increasing project complexities

• Detail and Dynamic Complexity• Industry: WBS, PERT, CPM, …• Association: PMI’s PMBoK, …• Other Disciplines: System Dynamics & Modeling

• Decision Making in Practice• Tools limited for understanding dynamics• Other tools too complicated for widespread use• Use of heuristics or “rules of thumb”


The Project Dynamics ApproachDefinitions• Project dynamics is the study of the dynamics that occur

on projects• Project dynamics presents a rigorous way to help

thinking, visualising and communicating the relationships and interdependencies between various components of a project and how these causal relationships determine behaviour of the project over time

Common Tools: Causal maps, simulation models


The Project Dynamics Approachquestioning

thinking

analysing

causal loops

simulation models

frameworks

mental models


The Project Dynamics Approach &PMI PMBoK Frameworks

Detail Complexity

• 5 groups• 9 areas• 42 processes• Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs



Dynamic Complexity



Dynamic Complexity

plan

practice

why?


The Project Dynamics ApproachFour classes of models:• Project Features• Rework Cycles• Project Control Strategies• Cascading and Subsequent Effects• Ripple Effects• Knock-on Effects


The Project Dynamics Approach:Project Feature Models

• Models represent the actual activities and tasks during phases/projects/program including interdependencies

• Material flows and information flows; business/project policies• Include human aspects like employee motivation, real vs. perceived

progress, perception gaps• Modelling important components of actual projects increases the

ability to simulate realistic project dynamics that relate directly to the experiences of practicing managers

• Increasing sophistication with concurrence constraints, design changes and uncertainties, schedule buffers, …


The Project Dynamics Approach

Four classes of models:• Project Features √• Rework Cycles• Project Control Strategies• Cascading and Subsequent Effects• Ripple Effects• Knock-on Effects


The Project Dynamics Approach:Rework Cycle Models

• Rework arrives unanticipated, or expected and estimated, or generated by external factors

• Errors caused by doing work incorrectly results in having to do additional work to correct the errors or in redoing the work completely

• Rework itself also tends to have errors causing further rework

• Project dynamics helps better understand the cyclical nature of rework and to estimate more accurately the effort required due to rework cycles



work remaining tobe done

pressure onschedule

perceived workcompletion rate

work completedwithout errors

S

S

S

O




pressure onschedule



S

S

S

O

B

Balancing loop B represents the progress of work being done on a project without errors or rework



S


pressure onschedule


work completed withundiscovered errors

work with errorsdiscovered


S

S

S

S

S

O

B



S


pressure onschedule





S

S

S

S

S

O

B

R1

Reinforcing loop R1 represents the effects of rework being created



S


pressure onschedule





error generationrate

S

S

S

S

S

O

S

S

B

R1



S


pressure onschedule






S

S

S

S

S

O

S

S

BR2

R1

Reinforcing loop R2 represents the effects of schedule pressure to increase error generation rates (and therefore rework)



S


pressure onschedule






S

S

S

S

S

O

S

S

BR2

R1

In practice, all three loops B, R1 and R2 are active on projects and create their own dynamics of work being completed, errors being generated, and error generation rates changing


The Project Dynamics ApproachFour classes of models:• Project Features √• Rework Cycles √• Project Control Strategies• Cascading and Subsequent Effects• Ripple Effects• Knock-on Effects


The Project Dynamics Approach:Project Control Models

• Managers make decisions to control the performance gap between actual progress and the performance targets

• As human beings, managers make decisions based on what they perceive and what information is available to them at that point in time

• Perceived conditions drive project control actions by managers and the actual conditions drive actual progress on projects

• Unique aspect of project dynamics models is that they differentiate between perceived conditions and actual conditions on a project


The Project Dynamics Approach:Project Control Models

From our rework example, • Managers generally include undiscovered rework in the

work they perceive as completed as the errors are as yet undetected at that point in time.

• This often leads to overestimating progress and productivity at the early stages of a project.

• So while the actual progress made is less than it seems due to work completed containing undetected errors, future decisions and forecasts are made based on the amount of work that is incorrectly perceived to be completed


The Project Dynamics Approach:Project Control Models – Labour Control

project schedulepressure

project scheduletime available

estimate of timerequired for completion

work remaining

rate of workcompletion

labour quantity

labour headcount

labour overtime

work intensity

S

S

S

S

SS

S

O

S

SO

B2

B1

B3

Project Control Action:Address schedule slippage by increasing the effective labour resources by• increasing the work intensity• increasing overtime • increasing the headcount


The Project Dynamics ApproachFour classes of models:• Project Features √• Rework Cycles √• Project Control Strategies √• Cascading and Subsequent Effects• Ripple Effects• Knock-on Effects


The Project Dynamics Approach:Ripple Effect & Knock-on Effect Models

• Project control actions like increasing overtime, adding people and increasing work pressures on a team can have counterintuitive and unintended consequences

• Control actions exacerbate the very project conditions of schedule slippage that they seek to alleviate

• Occurs due to the feedback effects of increasing errors, increasing rework, experience dilution, communication overheads, fatigue, burnout and worker turnover.


The Project Dynamics Approach:Ripple Effect Models




work remaining


labour quantity

labour headcount

labour overtime

work intensity

S

S S

SS

O

S

SO

error generation

experience

productivity

communicationoverheads

fatigue

Ripple effects are the primary impacts of project control actions on rework and productivity• fatigue• communication overheads• experience dilution• error generation• productivity loss


The Project Dynamics Approach:Knock-on Effect Models

Knock-on effects are the secondary and tertiary effects • out-of-sequence work• error contamination• additional work• lower employee morale




work remaining


labour quantity

labour headcount

labour overtime

work intensity

S

S S

SS

O

S

SO

error generation

experience

productivity

communicationoverheads

fatigue

morale


The Project Dynamics ApproachFour classes of models:• Project Features √• Rework Cycles √• Project Control Strategies √• Cascading and Subsequent Effects √• Ripple Effects √• Knock-on Effects √




questioning

thinking

analysing

causal loops

simulation models

frameworks

mental models

behaviour

structure

The Project Dynamics ApproachSimulation Models




questioning

thinking

analysing

causal loops

simulation models

frameworks

mental models

behaviour

structure


plan

practice

Dynamic Complexity

why?



plan

practice

Dynamic Complexity




questioning

thinking

analysing

causal loops

simulation models

frameworks

mental models

behaviour

structure

Key lesson: Structure drives behaviour!

Applications of Project Dynamics

Several applications in companies for purposes including:• Estimation and Risk Assessment• Project Control• Risk Management• Project Evaluations and Dispute Resolution• Change Management• Individual and Organisational Learning


Future Work

From Quotes from Program Managers:• Project plans sow the seeds for project success or failure• An overly aggressive plan often actually makes the

performance of the project worse• Critical to recognise undiscovered rework and finding new

ways to avoid its consequences• Increasing early QA even at lower initial productivity is

generally beneficial to project outcomes• Prioritizing rework detection and correction over starting

new work helps avoid downstream problems


Future Work

• Worse-before-better behaviour needs to be communicated• Difficulties in initiating use of the approach for the first

time • Need to develop insights and ‘lessons learned’ to assist

managers on their daily managerial decisions• The theory of project management would be enhanced by

integrating research from traditional project management and project dynamics

• The practice of project management could be aided by developing experimentation models and developing insights to aid managers’ decisions during actual project situations


Project Dynamics Integration Study

• (a) To improve the understanding of project management by incorporating insights from project dynamics within the commonly used PMI project management frameworks,

• (b) To build a model that can be used for experimentation and development of strategic decision making insights that will help managers improve performance on projects, and

• (c) To obtain experiential industry feedback and contextual support for the model and its findings through field studies with project managers.


Conclusions

• Exciting approach to transform the way project managers think

• Models are increasingly being built and used by companies for a variety of purposes

• Usage by managers can be enhanced by integration of the project dynamics approach with traditional frameworks

• Development of models and heuristics to help managers in practice


Business

Project Dynamics - System Dynamics Society India Chapter