Program Management using the Triple constraints

By Drew Harris

Scope

TimeQuality

Cost

Seminar by: Drew Harris Managing the Critical Constraints 2

Budget Control

Program Goals

Cutting Edge Technologies

Fab Schedules

New Developments

Employee Performance Training & Development

Program Schedules

Component cost-optimization

Fabrication techniques

Productivity

Clearly define what is in Scope and out of scope, as scope creep impacts the budget allocations.

Ensure that new developments receive budget prior to being included in scope.


To control costs you must efficiently manage the cost drivers

Resources

Machinery and Technology

Materials

Quality

Consultants, Contractors, and specialty shops

Delivery and expediting costs

Schedule slips and changes.Seminar by: Drew Harris Managing the Critical Constraints 4

It is imperative that processes be measured to determine performance, productivity, quality and repeatability.

Equipment capabilities must be known and maintained through scheduled maintenance.

Materials must meet specifications and adhere to tight delivery schedules.

CAD/CAE/CAM technology should follow QA standards and adhere to thorough documentation and file storage.

Inventory turns and supply stocks must be fine tuned. Inputs and Outputs must be agreed upon between upstream

and downstream customers. A high satisfaction level should be achieved and maintained.


Develop an all encompassing Quality Assurance plan that covers; Design and Engineering

In-house Fabrication

Technical services

Ensure that all suppliers follow the QA plan▪ Outside fabrication

▪ Assembly

▪ Materials

▪ Post processing



TIME SCOPE COST

CONSTRAINT (Non-Flexible)

ENHANCE (Somewhat

Flexible)

ACCEPT (Flexible)

The Critical Constraints are anchored together and set, based on the objective of the program. In this example, Scope is basically fixed and non-flexible. This scope anchor allows for a somewhat flexible cost constraint and a flexible time constraint (scheduling).

So let us now proceed to look at the Time Constraint of Scheduling for the remainder of this talk.

Scheduling has been defined as "the art of assigning resources to tasks in order to insure the termination of these tasks in a reasonable amount of time" (1). According to French (2), the general problem is to find a sequence, in which the jobs (e.g., a basic task) pass between the resources (e.g., machines), which is a feasible schedule, and optimal with respect to some performance criterion.

References1. M. Dempster, J. Lenstra, and R. Kan, Deterministic and stochastic scheduling:

introduction. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study and Research Institute on Theoretical Approaches to Scheduling Problems, D. Reidel Publishing Company: 3-14, 1981.

2. S. French, Sequencing and Scheduling. New York: Halsted Press, 1982.


Underestimating planned tasks

Creative designs requiring additional learning curve

time.

Capacity imbalances

Unavailable critical resources, technology or

equipment

Unusually low resource or equipment utilization

“Hot” Tasks interjected into the plan.

Conflicting priorities

Lack of an integrated schedule

Delays

Absenteeism

Rework


Form a team to get to the root

cause of each impact. Go down 5

levels w/Why?

Verify the root causes with data

Complete the countermeasure

table with specific actions.

For each root cause, identify up

to 3 broad countermeasures

(what to do).

Rank the effectiveness of each

countermeasure.

Identify the specific

implementation actions (how?)for

each countermeasure.

Rank the feasibility (time, cost) of

each specific action and decide

which to implement.



Worse Case Scenario Std. Use of time (Mins)

Delays & Interferences 120 20

2-15 min Breaks 30 30

Daily Meetings 110 60

Focused Time 220 370

220

370

110

60

30

30120

20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Daily Utilization Comparison for an 8 hr (480 Mins.) day

Focused Time Daily Meetings 2-15 min Breaks Delays & Interferences

46%

77%

As we push the upper limit of technology in our development, work centers, and processes …we must dig deeper and utilize advance scheduling theories and optimization to accurately plan these events.


Develop an Integrated schedule showing material shipments and processing flowing into the schedule for design, engineering, machining and assembly. It is imperative to include the people, equipment, and material that are used to complete tasks .

Manage the critical path The series of tasks that must be completed on schedule for a project to finish on schedule.

Understand the network logic associated with each schedule.

Improve the duration estimates and reduce variation. Status and update the schedule frequently. Document the key learning of each schedule

performance.


MEASURE AND TRACK ESTIMATING ACCURACY TO IMPROVE ESTIMATES

INDIVIDUAL EST.

TEAM ESTIMATE

ACTUAL DURATION

ACCURACY (INDIV)

ACCURACY (TEAM)

TASK 1

6.0 7.6 8.0 75% 95%

TASK 2

2.7 3.1 2.8 98% 113%

TASK 3

1.75 2.3 1.8 97% 128%

TASK 4

10.2 13.0 12.6 81% 104%

EXPECTED TOLERANCE OF +/- 5%


Use and integrated schedule and manage the critical path

Seminar by: Drew Harris Managing the Critical Constraints15

Develop Key metrics to assess deliveries and productivity. Determine and eliminate the delays that affect utilization Plan in “Critical and Hot” tasks and priorities Utilize PERT and mathematical algorithms to improve shop

loading. Deploy a rigorous scheduling process and include backward

and forward scheduling techniques Perform capacity analysis on resources, work centers,

equipment and technology. Improve team dynamics to gain synergy to function at a

higher level Optimize the integrated schedule through an advanced

scheduling and simulation modeling.



Metrics to aid in Scheduling accuracy!Do the following Results Metrics exist?

On Time Delivery (OTD)

Order-Fulfillment Lead Time (OFLT)

Dock to Dock (DTD)

First Time Through quality (FTT)

Health and Safety metrics

Days lost due to accidents

Absenteeism

Employee Turnover

Do the following Productivity Metrics exist?

Build to Schedule (BTS)

Overall Equipment effectiveness (OEE)

Value added to Non-value added ratio (VA/NVA)

Since scheduling problems fall into the class of NP-complete problems, they are among the most difficult to formulate and solve. Thus, I have adopted ideas from the paper Job Shop Scheduling

Techniques published by; Albert Jones, PhD National Institute of Standards and Technology and Luis C. Rabelo, Ph.D., Professor Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Dept. California Polytechnic State University

It is necessary to adopt additional parameters to categorize the variance that impacts the job shop schedule.

These additional parameters will allow us to; Develop algorithms to improve duration estimates through

regression analysis and predictions. Develop a knowledgebase of known machining center

processing paths. Construct a Discrete Scheduling Model to Optimize solutions


Consider these additional parameters to categorize schedule problems as proposed by Graves

1. Processing complexity,2. Scheduling criteria,3. Parameter variability,4. Scheduling environment.

Processing complexity, refers to the number of processing steps and workstations associated with the production process. This dimension can be decomposed further as follows:

1. One stage, one processor

2. One stage, multiple processors,

3. Multistage, flow shop,

4. Multistage, job shop.


The second dimension, scheduling criteria, states the desired objectives to be met. "They are numerous, complex, and often conflicting”. Some commonly used scheduling criteria include the following:1. Minimize total schedule slippage,

2. Minimize the number of late jobs,

3. Maximize system/resource utilization,

4. Minimize in-process inventory,

5. Balance resource usage,

6. Maximize production rate.


The third dimension, parameters variability, indicates the degree of uncertainty of the various parameters of the scheduling problem.

If the degree of uncertainty is insignificant, the scheduling problem could be called deterministic.

The last dimension, scheduling environment, defined the scheduling problem as static or dynamic. Scheduling problems in which the number of jobs to be considered and their ready times are available are called static. On the other hand, scheduling problems in which the number of jobs and related characteristics change over time are called dynamic.


Improve the basic scheduling parameters

Critical Path analysis

Integration

Visibility, Delays and Prioritizations

Learning Curves

Capacity and Utilization Build Knowledgebase for processing

paths, estimates and critical parameters Use simulation modeling as an inference

engine to manage the variables, build processing rules, input algorithms and distributions, all to optimize our schedule.


References1. M. Dempster, J. Lenstra, and R. Kan, Deterministic and stochastic

scheduling: introduction. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study and Research Institute on Theoretical Approaches to Scheduling Problems, D. Reidel Publishing Company: 3-14, 1981.

2. S. French, Sequencing and Scheduling. New York: Halsted Press, 1982.

3. S. Graves, A Review of Production Scheduling. Operations Research, 29: 646-675, 1981.

4. S. Gershwin, Hierarchical flow control: a framework for scheduling and planning discrete events in manufacturing systems. Proceedings of IEEE Special Issue on Discrete Event Systems, 77: 195-209, 1989.



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Program Management using the Triple constraints