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THE BODY IN THE
BAGPresenters:
Dina Gaughan, Megan Poole, & Amy Shuleski
February 24, 2010
MBA 512
Man Finds large canvas bag floating in river
Preliminary investigation reveals body
Sex/Race/Age Unknown
Body in the Bag
Victim and Offender – Adults over 18yrs of age
Victim/Offender Relationships◦ 2003 Uniform Crime Reports – FBI
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/03cius.htm Analysis Profiles
◦ Victim◦ Offender◦ Joint
Waiting on Forensics Analysis
Identify Preliminary Profile
Race of OffenderRace of Victim
White Black Other TOTAL
White 3,017 501 44 3,562
Black 226 2,864 8 3,098
Other 47 26 122 195
Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3,323 3,412 176 6,911
Sex of OffenderSex of Victim
Male Female Unknown
TOTAL
Male 4,417 499 71 4,987
Female 1,754 185 23 1,962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6,220 691 113 7,024
Classical Method◦ P (E) = Number of ways that E can occur
Number of possible outcomes
Addition Rule◦ P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
Multiplication Rule◦ P (A&B) = P (A) * P (B)
Probability Formulas
(Classical Method)Race:
◦White: 3,562 / 6,911 51.5%◦ Black: 3,098 / 6,911 44.8%◦ Other: 195 / 6,911 2.8%◦ Unknown: 56 / 6,911 .8%
Sex:◦Male: 4,987 / 7,024 71%◦ Female: 1,962 / 7,024 27.9%◦ Unknown: 75 / 7,024 1.1%
Victim Profile Prediction
(Addition Rule)
White or Black◦=(3562/6911) + (3098/6911) = 96.4%
Male or Female◦=(4987/7024) + (1962/7024) = 98.9%
Victim Profile Prediction
(Multiplication Rule) White & Male
=(3562/6911) * (4987/7024) = 36.6% White & Female
=(3098/6911) * (1962/7024) = 14.4% Black & Male
=(3098/6911) * (4987/7024) = 31.8% Black & Female
=(3098/6911) * (1962/7024) = 12.5%
Victim Profile Prediction
Victim Profile Prediction
38%
15%
33%
13%
Victim Sex and Race Profile
White & MaleWhite & FemaleBlack & MaleBlack & Female
(Classical Method)Race:
◦ White: 3,323 / 6,911 48.1%◦Black: 3,412 / 6,911 49.4%◦ Other: 176 / 6,911 2.5%◦ Unknown: 56 / 6,911 0.8%
Sex:◦Male: 6,220 / 7,024 88.6%◦ Female: 691 / 7,024 9.8%◦ Unknown: 113 / 7,024 1.6%
Offender Profile Prediction
(Addition Rule)
White or Black◦=(3323/6911) + (3412/6911) = 97.5%
Male or Female◦=(6220/7024) + (691/7024) = 98.4%
Offender Profile Prediction
(Multiplication Rule) White & Male
◦ = (3323/6911) * (6220/7024) = 42.6% White & Female
◦ =(3323/6911) * (691/7024) = 4.7 % Black & Male
◦ =(3412/6911) * ( 6220/7024) = 43.7% Black & Female
◦ =(3412/6911) * (691/7024) = 4.9%
Offender Profile Prediction
Offender Profile Prediction
44%
5%
46%
5%
Offender Sex and Race Profile
White & MaleWhite & FemaleBlack & MaleBlack & Female
(Multiplication Rule) Likelihood of Victim & Offender same
race:◦White: .515 x .481 24.8%◦Black: .448 x .494 22.1%◦Other: .028 x .025 .1%
Likelihood of Victim & Offender same sex:◦Male: .71 x .88 62.9%◦Female: .279 x .098 2.7%◦Unknown: .011 x .016 .02%
Joint Profile Prediction
Victim White & Male - 36.6%
Offender Black & Male - 43.7%
Joint – Both are White: 24.8% (Disagrees with above
Prediction) Male: 62.9% (Agrees with above
prediction)
Profile Predictions
No Identification Autopsy
◦ In water for 2 weeks Forensics Information Recovered
◦ White Female◦ Blonde Hair◦ Mid 30’s◦ No children◦ No jewelry
Forensics Analysis - Victim
Victim Profile Probability did not match the Forensic Analysis
Analysis DeterminedWhite Female
ProbabilitiesWhite Male – 36.6 %
White & Female - 14.4%
Forensics Analysis - Victim
Based on Victim’s Race – Likelihood Offender is:
White◦ 3,017/3,562 = 84.7 %
Black◦ 501/3,562 = 14.1 %
Other◦ 44/3,562 = 1.7 %
Offender Profile Posting
84%
14%
2%
WhiteBlackOther
Based on Victim’s Sex– Likelihood Offender is: Male
◦ 1754/1962 = 89.4 % Female
◦ 185/1962 = 9.4 % Unknown
◦ 231/1962 = 1.2 %
Offender Profile Posting
84%
14%
2%
WhiteBlackOther
(Multiplication Rule) White and Male
◦ .847 * .894 = 75.7 %
Probability that the Offender isWhite and Male is 75.7 %
Official Offender Profile Posting
Have you seen this man?If so, dial 911
White Male
Questions?