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Swedbanks delårsrapport för kvartal 2 130630
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Swedbank’s second quarter 2013 results
Michael Wolf, CEO Göran Bronner, CFO Håkan Berg, CRO
Stable results continue
• Stable NII – Stable deposit and lending margins
– New lending mortgage margins
10-15bp below stock margins
– Increased new mortgage lending
market share
• Solid asset quality
2
Retail
SEKm Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y
Net interest income 3 362 3 332 3 367 35 5
Net commissions 1 531 1 589 1 536 -53 5
Total income 5 352 5 377 5 312 -65 -40
Total expenses 2 411 2 406 2 398 -8 -13
Profit before
impairments 2 941 2 971 2 914 -57 -27
Impairments 102 55 37 -18 -65
ROE, % 26.3 27.9 28.1
C/I ratio 0.45 0.45 0.45
Continued improved market position
• Improved NII – Increased volumes and margins
• Stronger commission income – Higher corporate finance fees in
Norway
• Higher quality profit
• Costs under control
• Impairments – SEK 56m related to IT systems
3
Large Corporates & Institutions
SEKm Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y
Net interest income 750 783 851 68 101
Net commissions 396 419 523 104 127
Total income 1 601 1 814 1 926 112 325
Expenses excl variable
staff costs 640 646 730 84 90
Variable staff costs 120 88 104 16 -16
Profit before
impairments 841 1 080 1 092 12 251
Impairments 57 74 150 76 93
ROE, % 10.3 16.7 14.5
C/I ratio 0.47 0.40 0.43
Focus on efficiency and risk adjusted returns
• Stable NII – Intensified focus on repricing
• Stronger commission income – Increased customer activity
– Increased income from fund
management
• Continued recoveries
• Latvia approved for euro
4
Baltic Banking
SEKm Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y
Net interest income 868 742 763 21 -105
Net commissions 394 388 445 57 51
Total income 1 448 1 281 1 378 97 -70
Total expenses 594 586 593 7 -1
Profit before
impairments 854 695 785 90 -69
Impairments -200 -66 -41 25 159
ROE, % 15.0 12.6 13.4
C/I ratio 0.41 0.46 0.43
• Stable NII – Stable deposit margins
– Lower margins new mortgage
lending
• Stronger commission income
• NGL impacted by buy-backs
and valuation effects
• Stable expenses
• Continued good asset quality
• Increased Other impairments
Stable earnings
5
Group results
SEKm Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 ▲Q/Q ▲Y/Y
Net interest income 5 035 5 353 5 409 56 374
Net commission income 2 339 2 388 2 525 137 186
Net gains and losses 577 557 296 -261 -281
Total income 8 788 9 082 8 979 -103 191
Total expenses 4 171 4 043 4 126 83 -45
Profit before impairments 4 617 5 039 4 853 -186 236
Credit impairments -49 60 88 28 137
Other impairments 128 85 372 287 244
Tax 1 047 976 913 -63 -134
Profit from continuing ops. 3 491 3 918 3 480 -438 -11
ROE continuing
operations, % 14.6 15.3 14.1
C/I ratio 0.47 0.45 0.46
CET 1 ratio, % (Basel 3) 15.1 16.4 17.2
Excess capital building
• IRB Advanced
– On schedule
• 13 – 15 % CET 1 ratio
• Waiting for regulatory clarity
– Resolution regime
– CRD IV implementation
– Leverage ratio/corporate risk
weights?
6
Capital
Changes B3 CET1 ratio Q1-Q2
15,4%
16,4%
0.1% 0.3%
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 17.2%
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Profit (cont.
operations)
IAS 19 Other CET1
RWA Changes B3 effects
Q2 2013
Continued strong credit quality
• Continued high asset quality
in Sweden
• Slower net recoveries in
Baltic Banking
7
Credit impairments, SEKm Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 13
Retail 102 55 37
Large Corporates & Institutions 53 74 94
Baltic Banking -204 -70 -43
Estonia -25 -54 -36
Latvia -197 4 18
Lithuania 18 -20 -25
Swedbank Group -49 60 88
* Russia and Ukraine reported as discontinued operations.
30,7
10,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13* Q2 13*
SEKbn Impaired loans
2013 ICAAP – Swedbank Group resilience confirmed
• In 2013 ICAAP, Swedbank’s CET 1 ratio strengthened throughout the
scenario period, despite a scenario with a sharp contraction followed
by an extended downturn with slow recovery.
• The stress test in Swedish Riksbank’s latest stability report concludes
that Swedbank is the only Swedish bank with a positive result in the
scenario period.
8
Swedbank’s second quarter 2013 results
Q & A
Appendix
Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q
11
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
Q2
13
EURm
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Provisions – well provided for
12
Provision ratio, % Q2 13
Retail 70
LC&I 41
Baltic Banking 52
Group 54
* Russia and Ukraine reported as discontinued operations
11 915 10 951
9 934
7 077
4 429 4046
2 478 2 040
1 774
1 545
1 420 1399
65% 64% 65% 62%
57% 54%
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13* Q2 13*
SEKm
Individual provisions Portfolio provisions Provision ratio
Corporate portfolio drives capital efficiency
13
Credit portfolio - Retail
Segments excl. Swedbank
Mortgage and Swedbank Finance
Volume
(SEKbn)
Secured
(%)
Agriculture 6.0 81
Manufacturing 8.8 69
Public sector and utilities 4.4 93
Construction 4.5 81
Retail 9.0 86
Transportation 2.0 79
Shipping 0.1 95
Hotels and restaurants 3.2 88
Information & communication 1.0 46
Finance and insurance 1.7 65
Property management 51.2 97
Professional service 6.7 67
Other 5.5 72
Total 104.1 87
94
23
104
Total portfolio SEK 221bn
Swedbank Mortgage AB
Swedbank Finans AB
Other
16
6
4
26 25 24
23 26
0
10
20
30
Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13
SEKbn Shipping and Offshore
Offshore Tanker Other
14
Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions
• Exposure to Shipping & Offshore sector was SEK
26bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 8bn.
– Portfolio duration 4-5y
– Average fleet age 7y
– Strong employment profiles
3.5% 12.5%
Shipping and offshore
0 5 10 15 20 25
SEK
EUR
USD
NOK
JPY
Shipping and offshore portfolio by currency
Q2-13
Q1-13
0,5
7,1
1,6
4,2
1,3
2,1
0,5
2,4
0,5
2,1
0,8
1,1
2,1
0 2 4 6 8
Cruise
Drilling & exploration
Oil service
Supply
Accommodation
Floating production
Chemical
Product
Crude oil
Gas (LNG/LPG)
Dry bulk
Container
RORO
Shipping and Offshore portfolio by subsegment
Q2-13
Q1-13
Agriculture
15
• Segmentation definitions
– Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that
derive their main income from Agricultural
activities
– Private Investments: Private individuals
who own agricultural properties for living or
investment purposes
• Lending exposure to Agriculture
SEK 63.8bn
– Corporate Agriculture: (58%)
• Agriculture 45%
• Forestry 13%
– Private Investments (42%)
• Residential: 20%
• Forestry: 22%
Corporate: Agriculture
45%
Corporate: Forestry
13%
Private: Forestry
22%
Private: Residential
20%
Credit portfolio
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Q2 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Q2 2013
Core balance sheet* structure
16
Liquidity and funding
CEE lending
Estonia
Other corporate
lending, Sweden &
other Nordic countries
Other private, Sweden
Swedish
mortgage loans
Senior
Covered
bonds
Deposits
CET1
Suppl. cap
Government guaranteed debt
Assets Liabilities SEKbn SEKbn
* Simplified balance sheet
Q2 2013 Q2 2013
0
20
40
60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-
Senior unsecured debt
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50%
OC, Q213
Senior unsecured debt strategy
17
*Nominal amounts
• Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure
• Secure OC
• Fund liquidity reserves
Senior unsecured debt maturity profile
SEKbn*
Over-
colla
tera
lisation
House price drop
House price sensitivity of the cover pool
Liquidity and funding
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Covered bonds Senior unsecured
Lower funding needs
• LCR 129% (Swedish FSA definition FFFS 2012:6)
• NSFR 95%
18
Liquidity and funding
Term funding issuance – completed and planned
SEKbn*
*Nominal amounts
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
Domestic CP
ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
Domestic CB
Euro CB USD CB (144A)
Other CB Senior unsecured
FY 2012
Q1 13
Q2 13
Conservative funding plan
19
Long-term debt issued
• Issued SEK 68bn of term-funding YTD of which SEK 29bn in Q2
• Term funding plan in 2013 of SEK 120bn, full-year maturities of SEK 86bn
Liquidity and funding
Outstanding short-term debt SEKm SEKm
*Nominal amounts
0
50
100
150
200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-
Government guaranteed debt
Senior unsecured debt
Covered bonds
20
Long-term funding maturity profile
• FY 2013 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn, of which SEK 12bn remain
20
Long-term funding maturity profile
Liquidity and funding
SEKbn
Liquidity reserve
21
1 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q2 2013 are rated AAA
According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association
2 84% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except
from that they are held outside the Treasury department. 3 82% of the additional assets are rated AAA
Liquidity and funding
SEKm
Cash and holdings in central banks 199 879
Deposits in other banks available overnight 351
Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 31 058
Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or public sector entities 397
Covered bonds 54 981
- Issued by other institutions 54 981
- Own issued
Securities issued by non-financial corporates
Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 405
Other
Total1
289 071
Additional liquid assets, Group2, 3
30 726
Prolonged survival horizon
22
Liquidity and funding
SEKbn
Days forward
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Assets Liabilities
Assets held for sale
Interest-bearing securities
Lending to the public
Loans to credit institutions
Cash and balances with central banks
Deposits and borrowings from the public
Amounts owed to credit institutions
Debt securities in issue
Limited need for USD-funding
23
SEKbn
• USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months
• Issued USD 1bn of covered bonds (144a) and USD 1bn of senior (144a) YTD 2013
Liquidity and funding
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Next 12-month term funding maturities
CP / CDs and net interbank funding,
SEKm
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Additional pledgeable and/or liquid assets
Liquidity reserve, securities
Liquidity reserve, central bank deposits,
SEKm
Conservative liquidity levels
• Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management
• More than 12 months pre-funded
24
SEKbn
Liquidity and funding
1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association
1
1
Asset encumbrance
25
Liquidity and funding
Encumbered assets - distribution by type of liability (row) and asset (column)
SEKm
Government
debt
instruments
Central banks
and
supranational
debt
instruments
Covered
bonds
Debt
instruments
issued by
credit
institutions
Securities
issued by
corporate and
other issuers ABS
Mortgage
loans Cash Total
of w hich
received
collateral
(off-
balance)
Central bank funding
Intraday settlement 2 154 9 132 11 286 7 856
Repurchase agreements 1) 21 343 12 735 34 078 12 183
Derivative 2) 475 722 8 186 9 383 85
Covered bonds 3) 497 628 497 628
Retained covered bonds issued
Other 4) 763 401 1 164
Total 23 972 22 589 763 497 628 8 587 553 539 20 124
Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders 109 954
Unencumbered assets - additional assets available for secured funding
SEKm
Government
debt
instruments
Central banks
and
supranational
debt
instruments
Covered
bonds
Debt
instruments
issued by
credit
institutions
Securities
issued by
corporate and
other issuers ABS
Mortgage
loans Cash Total
of w hich
received
collateral
(off-
balance)
Securities 5, 6) 27 261 11 820 69 658 12 253 8 328 1 003 130 323 25 065
Cover pool over collateralisation 7) 227 036 227 036
Cover pool eligible assets 8)
Total 27 261 11 820 69 658 12 253 8 328 1 003 227 036 0 357 359 25 065
1) Repoed securities.
2) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm,
High: 21 572, Low : 11 054, Average: 13 995).
3) Of w hich accrued interest of assets in the cover pool, SEK 2
133m as of 30 June 2013.
4) Collateral pledged in securities lending activities and w ith
exchanges.
5) Reversed repos are included.
6) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at
central banks, of w hich 80% are rated AAA, 1% are rated below
A- and 8% are not rated.
7) Of w hich accrued interest of assets in the cover pool
overcollateralisation, SEK 987m as of 30 June 2013.
8) Securities received as collateral in for example reversed repo
transactions that; either have (encumbered) or have not
(unencumbered), been used as collateral by Sw edbank.
Swedish mortgage market
• No securitisation (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd party origination, insignificant
buy-to-let market
• 70% home ownership1
• Rental market is regulated
• Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)
– Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc
• Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest
rate
• Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)
• Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system
26
Swedish housing and mortgage market
1 Source: Boverket, 2011
Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development
27
Swedish housing and mortgage market
Single-family homes1 Tenant-owner rights2 Combined3
12M Δ
12M Δ
12M Δ
Jul/12 0% 4% 1%
Aug/12 2% 4% 3%
Sep/12 2% 5% 3%
Oct/12 1% 6% 3%
Nov/12 3% 7% 4%
Dec/12 4% 7% 6%
Jan/13 3% 7% 5%
Feb/13 4% 7% 5%
Mar/13 3% 7% 5%
Apr/13 2% 8% 4%
May/13 4% 8% 5%
Jun/13 4% 10% 6%
Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE
Baltic countries
28
Real estate prices
Source: Land book database Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board
Source: Swedbank. State Enterprise Centre of Registers
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
Jan-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Jan-1
0
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Tallinn
Nr.of deals EUR/m2
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
Jan-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Jan-1
0
Jul-10
Jan-1
1
Jul-11
Jan-1
2
Jul-12
Jan-1
3
Riga
Nr.of deals EUR/m2
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
Jan
-05
Jul-05
Jan
-06
Jul-06
Jan
-07
Jul-07
Jan
-08
Jul-08
Jan
-09
Jul-09
Jan
-10
Jul-10
Jan
-11
Jul-11
Jan
-12
Jul-12
Jan
-13
Vilnius
Nr.of deals EUR/m2
Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months)
29
The gross margin covers:
Cost of liquidity ~0.2%
Administrative costs ~0.3%
Credit impairments ~ 0.03%
Tax (22 % on profit before tax)
Net margin
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Gross margin Swedbank's funding cost Stibor 3 months Swedish Riksbank's repo rate