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The Future of Project Cargo by Air

PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Page 1: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

The Future of

Project Cargo by Air

Page 2: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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10,500 billion RTK

202 billon RTK

0.5 billion RTK which is

0.25% of Air Cargo RTK

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Maritime Air Cargo Ruslan Charters

2011 Revenue tonne-kilometer (RTK)

Page 3: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Aircraft

Page 4: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Project Cargo market size does not justify completely new aircraft designs.

So project cargo aircraft come from two sources:

1. Existing or modified commercial aircraft, e.g. B747

2. Existing or modified military freighter aircraft, e.g. An-124

Page 5: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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B747 Dreamlifter Payload 113.4T, Cabin 1,840 CBM

Produced by large modifications to B747-400 airframes.

4 produced. Entered service in 2007. Used by Boeing to

transport major assemblies of the B787.

It will operate beyond 2025

B747-8F Payload 140T, Cabin 48.6 x 6.1 x 3.0m

Nose Door 2.6 x 2.5m Side Door 3.4 x 3.0m

The B747-8F is the latest B747 freighter variant which

follows the successful B747-200F and B747-400F.

Primarily used for general cargo, but also regularly

carries project cargo.

The B747-8F entered service in 2011. It will operate

beyond 2030

Boeing, USA

Page 7: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Freighter Aircraft for military use are designed for:

Short landing distances

Minimum ground handling equipment, e.g. no high loaders.

A high wing design means cabin floor is closer to ground. Ramp loading.

These traits are co-incidentally ideal for the movement of outsized and heavy

project cargo.

Page 8: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

5m

3m (and 0m when “kneeling”)

B747-400F

An124-100

Wing at top of fuselage

Wing at bottom of fuselage

allows lower cargo cabin floor

means higher main deck floor

Page 9: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

37.5°

65 m

Longer range at high payload Shorter runway at high payload

32.0°

73 m

B747-400F An124-100

Page 10: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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An-225 Payload 250T, Cabin 43 x 6.4 x 4.4 m

The world’s largest aircraft. Produced in Ukraine in

1988 to carry the “Buran” space plane. First

commercial flight in 2001. One airframe offered for

charter world-wide on an ad-hoc basis.. Holds many

world records including flying a 186.7T piece.

Life-extension programme means it can operate

through to around 2033.

An-124-100 Payload 120T, Cabin 36.5 x 6.4 x 4.4m

An-124 was originally produced in Ukraine and Russia as

a military transporter in 1982. The An-124-100

commercial variant had its first commercial flight in 1989.

The are currently around 26 aircraft flying commercially

today of which 17 are offered by Ruslan International.

Life-extension programme means they can operate

through to around 2027 (oldest) to 2046 (newest).

Upgraded 150T payload version under evaluation.

Production line under consideration for 150T payload

version with increased range.

Antonov Company, Ukraine

Page 11: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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C-5B Payload 122.5T, Cabin 38.1 x 5.8 x 4.1m

All delivered to U.S Air Force:

1969 to 1973 81 C-5A aircraft delivered.

1986 to 1989 50 C-5B aircraft delivered.

2 C-5C airframes produced with larger cargo cabin.

1998 C-5 AMP (Aviation Modernization Program)

2006 C-5M Super Galaxy (Reliability Enhancement

and Re-engining Program - RERP) planned to

extend its service life beyond 2040.

Currently around 94 C-5 aircraft with U.S. Air Force.

Lockheed planned a civil version, the L-500.

C-17 Payload 77.5T, Cabin 20.8 x 5.5 x 3.8 to 4.5m

Operated primarily by U.S. Air Force and air forces in UK,

Australia, Canada, India, Qatar, UAE…

First flew in 1991. Still in production. Design lifetime of 20

years, so will be flying beyond 2033. 230 aircraft had

been produced by 2011.

The MD-17 (later BC-17) was proposed for commercial

use.

Lockheed, USA McDonnell Douglas / Boeing, USA

Page 12: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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IL-76TD-90VD Payload 47T, Cabin 18 x 3.4 x 3.2m

Offered for charter world-wide. Volga-Dnepr Airlines has 5

modernized IL-76TD-90VD in its fleet. A business plan for

the project requires construction of up to 15 IL-76TD-

90VD aircraft up to 2020. It will operate beyond 2040.

This variant meets current and projected engine noise

requirements worldwide.

Ilyushin, Russia

An-12 Payload 18T Cabin 13.6 x 3.0 x 2.4m

900 built. Produced between 1957 to 1973. Used for

both military and commercial flights.

Antonov Company, Ukraine

An-178 Payload 18T Cabin 12.9 x 2.8 x 2.8m

Derived from An-158 passenger aircraft. Plans to fly

first airframe in 2014

Page 13: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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An-70 Payload 47T, Cabin 19.1 x 4 x 4.1m

Runway length 600 to 700m for landing with 20T

payload and 1550m landing for 47T payload

First flight 1994. First two serial production versions

will be delivered to Ukraine Ministry of Defence in

2014.

A400M Payload 37T, Cabin 17.7 x 4 x 4m

Runway length 770m landing for 20T payload.

First flight 2009. Customers include Belgium,

France, Germany, Luxemburg, Malaysia, Spain,

Turkey and UK...

174 sold. 1 delivered to France in 2013.

Airbus Military, Spain Antonov Company, Ukraine

New generation of the short takeoff and landing tactical military medium transports

Page 14: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Japan

XC-2

Payload 37.6T,

Cabin 16 x 4 x 4m

Xi’an Aircraft Industrial Corp, China

Y-20

Payload 66T,

Cabin

Service entry 2017

Embraer, Brazil

KC-390

Payload 23T,

Cabin 12.7 x 3.4 x 3.0m

Lockheed Martin, USA

C-130J-30, Super Hercules

Payload 21.7T,

Cabin 16.8 x 3.1 x 2.7m

Latest version C-130 series

Alenia Aermacchi, Italy

C-27J

Payload 11.5T

Cabin 8.6 x 2.5 x 2.6m

UAC/HAL, Russia/India

IL-214 - MTA

Payload 18.5T

Cabin 13.9 x 3.5 x 3.4m

Airbus Military, Spain

C-295

Payload 9.7T

Cabin 12.7 x 2.4 x 1.9m

Shaanxi Aircraft Industrial (Group) Co., China

Y-9

Payload 30T

Cabin 16.2 x 3.2 x 2.4m

Page 15: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Be-2500 Payload 1000T

A super-heavy transport seaplane concept intended for

transoceanic routes. Would operate to major ports. Can fly

using Wing-In-Ground effect (WIG) above the ocean or

aircraft mode.

Would be developed with foreign partners.

Beriev Aircraft Company, Russia

Page 16: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Airships

Page 17: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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l

2 l

3 l

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T 20T 20T

20T total

160T total

540T total

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T

20T 20T 20T

L

2 L

Payload Increases

with Airship Volume

3 L

20T total

80T total

180T total

Payload Increases

with Aircraft Area

Page 18: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Payload

(Tonne)

Freight Rates

($ per Tonne-Km) Comments from Authors of

“The Rebirth of Airships”

20 1.50 “slightly more costly than conventional air freight”

200 0.20

1000 0.06 “comparable to marine freight”

Advanced Technologies Group (ATG)

Airship Cargo Freight Rates - Estimated in 2002

Source: “The Rebirth of Airships” by Barry E. Prentice, Al Phillips, Richard P. Beilock, and Jim Thomson.

Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Spring 2005

ATG’s rate estimates were based upon computer simulations

Page 19: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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A3X

X

Jet

Transports

Propeller

Transports C-130

C-121

P-3

747

C-5

Air BoxWing

Hybrid

Aircraft

C

ost

per

to

n-m

ile

Land Truck

Train

Merchant Ship

Sea

Maximum Speed

Theoretical Limit

(per Gabrielli - von Karman)

Source: Lockheed Martin

Page 20: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Fixed Lift Airship Hybrid Airship Variable Lift Airship

Airframe Lifted by Helium Buoyancy Helium Buoyancy Helium Buoyancy

Payload Lifted by Helium Buoyancy

Payload swapped with ballast

during onload & offload

Dynamic lift Shape of airship acts as wing.

Must fly forwards.

Helium Buoyancy Helium is compressed to vary

the buoyancy

Hover and

vertical take-off

and landing.

Yes Generally No

Some models can lift reduced

payloads vertically.

Yes

Ballast needed? Always Sometimes Never

Airship Size For a given payload

Standard Smaller than others Standard

Note: Vectored thrust also contributes to airship lift control (as well as airship position and orientation)

Page 21: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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“CL 160” Payload 160T, Cargo Bay 50 x 8 x 8m

Instrumental in raising the profile and progressing

some technologies for project cargo airships.

However, CL 160 never came to fruition and the

company closed in 2002. Shareholder has since

founded CL CargoLifter GmbH & Co. KG and is

focusing on smaller airships.

Fixed Lift Airships

“Graf Zeppelin II (LZ130) “Useful Lift” (equivalent to payload) 58T

Designed as a passenger airship, it flew from 1938 to

1940.

Another airship the “ZRCV” proposed in 1936 would

have had a “useful lift” of 135T

Luftschiffbau Zeppelin GmbH, Germany CargoLifter AG, Germany

Page 22: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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LMZ1M Payload ?T, “a large cargo bay and external load capabilities”

In January 2013, Lockheed Martin posted with FAA proposed hybrid certification

criteria for the LMZ1M

envelope has 1,285,000 cubic foot displacement

four thrusters to allow thrust vectoring

manned cargo lifting hybrid airship

a gondola accommodating eight passengers and two crewmembers

and a large cargo bay, and external load capabilities.

1,285,000 Cubic foot is 36,400 CBM, so approximately 18T payload

Lockheed Martin website states it is working with the commercial market to bring

the first generation commercial Hybrid Airship to the market in 2014, and that it

is planning hybrids up to 500 tons (454T) payload.

P791 This technology demonstrator first

flew in 2006

Hybrid Airships

Lockheed Martin, USA

Partner, Aviation Capital Enterprise (ACE)

from Canada announced in March 2011

plans for three variants of “SkyTug” ranging

in size from 20 tons (18T) to several

hundred tons.

Source: Defence Industry Daily

20 tons (18T) SkyTug - 90m long

70 tons (64T) SkyFreighter

500 tons (454T) SkyLiner

Page 23: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Airlander 200 Payload 200T (80T vertically), Cabin 49.4 x 7.5 x 5.0m

Airlander 50 Payload 50T (20T vertically), Cabin 6x 20ft containers

Airlander 20 Payload 20T.

The “Airlander” variants above are planned (not yet built / flying). Hybrid Air

Vehicles has asked the U.S. military to return to them the retired LEMV.

Other designs:

HAV606 Payload 200T Envelope 457,500 CBM Airship 185 x 77 x 47m

HAV366 Payload 50T Envelope 80,000 CBM Airship 109 x 56 x 33m

HAV304 Payload 6.8T Envelope 38,000 CBM Airship 91 x 34 x 26m

LEMV Payload 6.8T (in heavy-lift

configuration)

Long Endurance Multi-Intelligence Vehicle

(LEMV). A surveillance airship for U.S.

military. It first flew in 2012. Project is

currently on hold.

Altitude 20,000 ft, 3 weeks flight duration

(when remotely operated) with 1.2T.

Range 2,400 nm (4400km) with 6.8T.

Hybrid Airships

Northrop Grumman, USA and Hybrid Air Vehicles, UK

Page 24: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Ohio Airships, USA

Dynalifter Series

DL-1000 Payload 145T, Cabin 45.7 x 12.2 x 4.6m

DL-800 Payload 45T, Cabin 30.5 x 7.9 x 4.6m

DL-600 Payload 20T, Cabin 24.4 x 6.1 x 4.3m

DL-100 Prototype built in 2013 and is being tested.

Shanghai Vantage Airship Manufacture Co., Ltd, China

CA-200T Payload 200T, Cabin 60 x 12 x 8m

CA-60T Payload 60T, Cabin 30 x 8 x 4m

The “Combined Loading Airships” CA-200T and CA-60T are at the design and development

stage. Intention is to progress these types with international partners.

Hybrid Airships

Page 25: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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“Aeroscraft” Series

Variable Lift Airships

Worldwide Aeros Corporation, USA

Dragon Dream Payload 0T, No cargo cabin

A half-scale demonstrator which successfully

passed all Pentagon and NASA tests under the

'Project Pelican' Program.

Dragon Dream’s first flight was very recently, in

September 2013.

However, a set-back occurred after returning the

airship to the hangar when part of the roof fell on

to the airship.

ML-86X Payload 454T, Cabin 138.7 x 22.6 x 16.5m

ML-868 Payload 227T, Cabin 115.8 x 18.6 x 13.7m

ML-866 Payload 60T, Cabin 67.1 x 12.2 x 9.1m

At the Paris Air Show this year, the CEO stated his goal to

have the first ML-866 in-service in 2016 with a total of 24

ML-866 and ML-868 airships in service by 2021

ML-868 Data:

Range 4,800 nm (8,900 km),

Altitude 12,000 ft, (18,000 ft if pilots wear oxygen masks)

Page 26: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Augur - RosAeroSystems, Russia

ATLANT-100 Payload 55T, Cabin 28 x 10 x 6m

ATLANT-30 Payload 15T,

Seeking to develop and fly an ATLANT airship in 2017. Ground test rigs built of the air

pressurization system and thrust vectoring systems

Skylifter , Australia

Skylifter 150T, External payload

Varialift Airships plc, UK

ARH-250 Payload 250T, Cabin 250 x 100 x 20m

ARH-50 Payload 50T, Cabin 100 x 50 x 10m

Skylite Aeronautics, USA

GeoShip Payload 1000T, Cabin 50m x 50m x 10m

KNARR, Denmark

KNARR – Designed to carry wind turbine blades

Variable Lift Airships

Page 28: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Very approximately how long will global helium resource last?

Total Global Resource around 50,000 million CBM

Global Helium Consumption 180 million CBM per year (Source: US Geological Survey in 2012)

So enough helium for 50,000/180 = 278 years at 2012 consumption rate.

Very approximately how many airships can be produced each year?

Assuming 1 to 5% global helium consumption used for cargo airships

1.8 to 9.0 million CBM of helium per year

Equivalent to:

4 to 20 airships (200T payload) per year based on 457,500 CBM envelope size of HAV606 hybrid airship

OR

23 to 112 airships (50T payload) per year based on 80,000 CBM envelope size of HAV366 hybrid airship

Helium

Page 29: PowerLogistics Asia 2013- "The Future of Project Cargo Movement by Air" - Michael Goodisman, Ruslan International

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Aircraft Airships

Technology Proven technology Still under development. Unproven in military environment and commercial markets.

Helium Does not restrict production rate of aircraft. No effect on repairs.

Does restrict production rate of airships. Might delay repairs.

Commercial role. Carrying max payload

Smaller, Faster (4x faster), Higher altitude. Faster positioning Faster loaded flights. Airport to airport. Fewer weather delays. Higher $ per tonne-km

Larger, Slower, Lower altitude. Slower positioning Slower loaded flights. Door to door (or nearly). More weather delays. Lower $ per tonne-km

Military role. Carrying max payload

Smaller, Faster, Higher altitude Less likely to be hit, but can tolerate fewer hits

Larger, Slower, Lower altitude More likely to be hit, but can tolerate more hits.

One DoD study suggested option of using airships to carry cargo close to hostile area and aircraft to carry cargo last leg into hostile area (dependent on threat level).

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Thank you