Intuitive vs. Deliberate Dynamic Decision-Making

– An Experimental Approach

Andreas Größler, Etiënne Rouwette, Jac Vennix*

* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, {a.groessler, e.rouwette, j.vennix}@fm.ru.nl

“Managing from the gut” (J. Welsh)

vs.

“Don„t trust your gut” (E. Bonabeau)

Three experimental

groups

1: Immediate

2: Considered

3: Distracted

Business students from

Radboud University

Random sampling, N = 104

Goal in simulation:

stabilize deer population at

the highest level possible

Statistically significant differences for

knowledge about system only

No differences for performance

Also no differences when qualitative

measures or other performance scores

are considered

Role of experience?

Strength of experimental intervention?

Also see our paper

from the 2008

System Dynamics

Conference, Athens

The Kaibab Plateau model

as experimental stimulus

SimulatedHistorical

100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

0

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

Time (year)

Deer

SimulatedHistorical

100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

0

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

Time (year)

Deer