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My poster at the 2008 International System Dynamics Conference, Athens.
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Product Diffusion in ‘the Long Tail’
Andreas Größler*
‘The Long Tail’: Availability of (quasi) indefinite product choice because of
no or only marginal storage and distribution costs (Anderson, 2004)
Research questions:
1. Diffusion patterns of goods when ‘long tail’ economics are present?
2. Managing product portfolios in the ‘long tail’?
Conceptual model and simulation:(symbolic representation)
* Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands, [email protected]
1 M
750,000
500,000
250,000
0
UnawarePopulation
becoming awareand interested
deciding to use stopping usage
ratio of peoplethat can find
productthemselves
ratio of interested people(depending on product
characteristics)
innovationcoefficient
chance of becoming
informed about product
ratio of people informedabout product (by producers) successful
advertising/productdescription
successful informationby other users
ratio of peopleinformed by others
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
PotentialUsers
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Actual
Users
Non-hit, Long Tail EconomyNon-hit, Old EconomyHit, Long Tail EconomyHit, Old Economy
Becoming a potential user depends on these technology-supported communication
mechanisms:
1.Information by producers (web sites, push email, rank tuning,…)
2.Information by other users (fora, blogs, chats,…)
3.Self-guided information (recommendation sites, searches,…)
Potential users will eventually become actual users (no time or effort restrictions
apply) due to the desire to innovate or to imitate.
Necessity of measures to guide choice (see Schwartz, 2004), otherwise people will
avoid, delay or regret decisions.
Δ 852%
Δ 4.8%
Actual users, non-hit(after period 100)
Actual users, hit(after period 100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Long Tail Economy Old Economy0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Long Tail Economy Old Economy
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