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Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media
Presented By: Jim Reynolds [email protected]
twitter.com/jimmyrey
Setup Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY Categories
State Race (Senate or Governor) Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis 560K social media
mentions of candidates since 3rd week of September
Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections
Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Microblogs – 36%
Social Networks –
20%
Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%
Message boards – 18.8%
All Other Types –
Less than 10%
Analysis: Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
christine o'donnell
harry reid
sharron angle
rand paul
barbara boxer
chris coons
carly fiorina
charlie crist
linda mcmahon
jack conway
marco rubio
joe sestak
mark kirk
pat toomey
kendrick meek
richard blumenthal
Alexi giannoulias
david vitter
lee fisher
rob portman
charlie melancon
Election 2010 – Senate Races
Analysis: Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)
Democrat 35%
Independent 4%
Republican 61%
Number of Mentions Chart
Percentage of Conversation
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
meg whitman
jerry brown
carl paladino
rick perry
rick scott
andrew cuomo
bill white
jan brewer
alex sink
tom tancredo
deval patrick
pat quinn
bill brady
tim cahill
tom emmer
charlie baker
tom corbett
dan maes
mark dayton
terry goddard
dan onorato
john hickenlooper
tom horner
scott cohen
Democrat 40%
Independent 5%
Republican 55%
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell) Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin
Number of Mentions Chart
Percentage of Conversation
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Delaware
Nevada
Kentucky
California
Florida
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Louisiana
Ohio
Election 2010 – Senate Races
Analysis
Delaware is the most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell
Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
California
New York
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts
Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Analysis
Unlike the CA Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined
New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place
Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races
Nevada: Sharron Angle Harry Reid
Kentucky: Rand Paul
Jack Conway
California: Carly Fiorina
Barbara Boxer
Delaware: Chris Coons Christine O’Donnell
Florida: Kendrick Meek Marco Rubio Charlie Crist
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
barbara boxer
carly fiorina
57%
43%
89.64%
90.56%
California Senate Race
Analysis
Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina in favorability*
The volume of conversation around Boxer and Fiorina is roughly the same, but their favorability ratings differ
This race appears to be leaning towards the incumbent Boxer
* Favorability is measured by diving
the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
44%
37%
19%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
marco rubio
kendrick meek
charlie crist
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Charlie Crist
Florida Senate Race
Analysis Kendrick Meek
leads all candidates in favorability while Charlie Crist is last
Interestingly, Crist has the largest volume of conversation while Meek has the least
The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist
91.75%
92.85%
89.76% Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Christine O'Donnell vs. Chris Coons
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
christine o'donnell
chris coons
84%
16%
86.84%
88.47%
Delaware Senate Race
Analysis Chris Coons has a
slight advantage over Christine O’Donnell in terms of favorability *
O’Donnell dominates the conversation with 84% of the total posts
This race is leaning toward Chris Coons
*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
rand paul
jack conaway
74%
26%
87.05%
83.62%
Kentucky Senate Race
Analysis Jack Conway has a
4% favorability lead to Rand Paul
Rand Paul owns 74% of the conversation vs. 26% by Jack Conway
If Rand Paul continues to trend upward in favorability he could win the race.
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid
sharron angle harry reid
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
sharon angle
harry reid
57%
43%
86.61%
87.99%
Nevada Senate Race
Analysis Harry Reid leads
Sharron Angle in favorability
Harry Reid also has a 14% lead in volume of conversation
This race looks very good for Harry Reid
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races
Massachusetts: Tim Cahill
Deval Patrick Charlie Baker
Texas:
Rick Perry Bill White
Florida:
Rick Scott Alex Sink
California: Jerry Brown Meg Whitman
New York: Andrew Cuomo Carl Paladino
0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
meg whitman
jerry brown
55%
45%
85.05%
87.39%
California Gubernatorial Race
Analysis
Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman in favorability
Whitman is beating Brown by 5% in volume of conversation
This is one of the most challenging races to predict
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
carl paladino
andrew cuomo
0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino
55%
45%
85.21%
88.81%
New York Gubernatorial Race
Analysis
Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by more than 3% in favorability
Paladino leads Cuomo by 10% in volume of conversation, due largely to a recent spike
This race appears to be in favor of Cuomo
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
rick perry
bill white
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Perry vs. Bill White
58%
42%
90.53%
91.49%
Texas Gubernatorial Race
Analysis
Bill White has a slight advantage over Rick Perry in favorability
Perry has a 16% lead over Bill White in chatter
It appears that Democrat White has a chance in the Texas race
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Scott vs. Alex Sink
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
rick scott
alex sink
64%
36%
90.68%
91.17%
Florida Gubernatorial Race
Analysis
Alex Sink has a slight .6% lead over Rick Scott in favorability
Rick Scott racks up nearly 30% more conversations than Alex Sink
This race appears to be in Rick Scott’s favor
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
charlie baker
deval patrick
tim cahill
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Charlie Barker vs. Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill
43%
30%
27%
92.30%
93.07%
91.11%
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race
Analysis
Deval Patrick leads in favorability over the other 2 candidates but is followed closely by Charlie Barker & Tim Cahill
Deval Patrick is in the lead with volume of conversation as well
This race seems to be in Patrick’s favor
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation