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Pathogen management modelling presentation given at the APEG 201 conference held at Cefas.
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Pathogen management and modelling
Nick TaylorPopulation
Ecologist/Epidemiological Modeller
Disease monitoring and emergence• Fish Health Inspectorate:
– 10 field inspectors
– Visit 700+ APB’s per annum
– Early identification of problems
– Big picture perspective
• Epidemiology and risk assessment: – ID potential threats
– Assess the risk posed
– Suggest mitigation measures
Emerging diseases
Pathogen testing• Reference lab (EU, national, OIE) for:
– Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia
– Infectious haematpoietic necrosis
– Bacterial kidney disease
– Gyrodactylus salaris
– Spring viraemia of carp
– Marteiliosis
– Bonamiasis
– Infectious pancreatic necrosis
– Crayfish plague.
• Pathogen culture, PCR, antigen ELISA and antibody testing.
Field studies• Assess distribution and
scale.
• Study pathogen life-cycles and dynamics in the real world.
• Conduct classical epidemiological studies: Cross-sectional
Cohort
Case-control
• Identify risk factors.
Complex data and statistical tools
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.7
2
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.7
May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03
Leng
th (m
m)
1 2 3 4 5 6
7
8
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.7
2
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.7
May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03
Leng
th (m
m)
1 2 3 4 5 6
7
8
Pathogen life-cycles
Experimental studies
Pathogen challenge studies
Efficacy against pathogen
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Abu
ndan
ce
c1c2c3t1t2t3
Benefit to host
Environmental impact
Disease modelling
Optimal application and control policies
10°C 15°C 20°C 25°C
pH 6.1 1 1 1 1
pH 6.4 1 1 1 2
pH 6.7 1 1 2 2
pH 7.0 1 2 2 3
pH 7.3 1 1 2 2
pH 7.6 1 1 1 2
pH 7.9 1 1 1 1
Summary
• What’s the problems.
• Extent and severity.
• How to test for it.
• What drives it.
• What’s its life-cycle.
• Effective treatments.
• How to manage.