1. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Outthink the Competition Webinar Kaihan Krippendorff www.outthinker.com

2. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 3. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 4. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 5. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Ray Kroc 6. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus 7. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 8. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Tata 9. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Thomas Edison 10. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson 11. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Elizabeth Arden Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Charles Revson Henry Ford Sichir Honda 12. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Martin Luther King, Jr. Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Nelson Mandela Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher Benjamin Franklin 13. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Larry Page CEO, Google Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com 14. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mohandas Gandhi 15. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. The 4th Option 16. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 2 Go home Wait Cross 17. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net How can we predictably create a 4th Option? 18. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Two Standard Approaches Follow proven rules or best practices Rules 1. Alkdjfklsdlkj 2. Asdlkfj bou 3. Alsk boiuoidf 4. Goibjhkal dgs 5. Glijgbuu gds 6. gljgoiud Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option Option narrowing X X X 19. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Imagine Choose leverage points others overlook Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose strategies competitors will not copy Analyze Build buy-in from key stakeholders Sell Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process 20. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 21. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 22. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net URBN Revenue History $ Millions Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF 350 425 550 830 1,090 1,230 1,510 1,840 1,940 2,270 2,470 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 23. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net URBN Results 5 5 13 Industry ANF** URBN Growth 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 14 12 20 Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters 24. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different 25. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Position Process Physical experience People PlaceProduct PromotionPrice The 8Ps What are your sources of advantage? 0 no difference 1 4 year difference 2 5+ year difference What must you defend and renew? What must you better leverage? Where should you look for new advantages? 26. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 8P tool on www.kaihan.net 27. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Imagine Choose leverage points others overlook Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose strategies competitors will not copy Analyze Build buy-in from key stakeholders Sell Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process 28. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Alexandra Kosteniuk How Do Great Strategists See the Winning Move? 29. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad ??? 30. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer 31. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master Expert 32. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Europe & Americas Fairy tales Japan Koan India Puranas China 36 stratagems 33. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Identifying Outthinkers Value creation (TRS) Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin 34. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Core Research 35. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good 36. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 37. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can. Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview) 38. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 39. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground 40. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good 41. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 42. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 43. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 44. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34 45. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34 46. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34 47. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways - Coordinate the Uncoordinated34 48. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good 49. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7 50. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Cloud providers Cloud services Retail There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming. - Jeff Bezos 51. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Shoes Shoes Customer service 52. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional CPA firms Projects Resources (Accnts) 53. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Force a two-front battle7 Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this? 54. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good 55. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Environment Employees Community Govern- ment / country Share- holders Customers Be Good33 Corporation 56. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 33 63 Be Good 57. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net The Holstee Manifesto 58. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering? Be good33 59. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good 60. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 61. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 Julie Pickens 62. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Ingvar Kamprad Create Something Out of Nothing32 63. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 64. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 65. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? Create something out of nothing32 66. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net 67. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good How can you project into a new sector? What can you create? Where is the next battleground? Who could you coordinate? How can you be good? 68. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Imagine Choose leverage points others overlook Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose strategies competitors will not copy Analyze Build buy-in from key stakeholders Sell Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process 69. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools. Napoleon Bonaparte 70. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Selecting your 4th Option High Low Crazy ideas Winning moves Wastes of time Tactics Impact How far would this get me toward my goal? How long before the competition responds? Difficult Easy Can we do this quickly? Is this inexpensive? Do we have the capability? 71. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Selecting your 4th Option High Low Crazy ideas Winning moves Wastes of time Tactics Impact How far would this get me toward my goal? How long before the competition responds? Difficult Easy Can we do this quickly? Is this inexpensive? Do we have the capability? 72. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer. - Albert Einstein 73. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Imagine Choose leverage points others overlook Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose strategies competitors will not copy Analyze Build buy-in for your strategy Sell Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert Mr. What Works Mr. Cog 74. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 75. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 76. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 77. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Ray Kroc 78. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus 79. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net 80. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Ratan Tata 81. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Thomas Edison 82. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson 83. 2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan Register for newsletter, tools, videos Work out your Fourth Option Email me to get presentation Contact us at Outthinker for more support