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Newspaper extinction timeline • Media strategy • Thought leadership content • Scenario planning Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence Created by Ross Dawson www.futureexploration.net — stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017 UK, Iceland 2019 Canada, Norway 2020 Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021 Australia, Hong Kong 2022 Denmark 2023 New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024 Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025 South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026 Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027 Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028 France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029 Germany, Estonia 2030 Japan, Metro China 2031 Hungary, Lithuania 2032 Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033 Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034 Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035 Russia, Turkey 2036 Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037 Mongolia 2038 Argentina 2039 Rest of the world 2040+

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Page 1: Newspaper extinction timeline

Newspaper extinction timeline

• Media strategy• Thought leadership content• Scenario planning

Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence

Created by Ross Dawson

www.futureexploration.net

— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas

When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017

UK, Iceland 2019

Canada, Norway 2020

Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021

Australia, Hong Kong 2022

Denmark 2023

New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024

Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025

South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026

Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027

Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028

France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029

Germany, Estonia 2030

Japan, Metro China 2031

Hungary, Lithuania 2032

Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033

Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034

Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035

Russia, Turkey 2036

Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037

Mongolia 2038

Argentina 2039

Rest of the world 2040+

Page 2: Newspaper extinction timeline

GLOBAL NATIONAL

Increased cost performance

of mobile phones

Increased cost performance of tablets/ e-readers

Development of high

performance digital paper

Changes in newsprint and print

production costs

Uptake of digital news

monetization mechanisms

Trends in advertising spend and allocation

Development of open

platforms

Technology uptake

Fixed bandwidth availability and costs

Mobile bandwidth availability and costs

Smartphone and e-reader penetration

Industry structure

Financial position of leading newspapers

Balance of advertising and print sales revenue

Newspaper distribution structures

Demographics

Age structure, birth rates, and immigration

Degree of urbanization

Increase in literacy

Consumer behaviors

Media channel preferences

Willingness to pay for news

Relative interest in local and global news

Government

Degree of regulation

Government financial support for media

Censorship and obstruction

Economic development

Economic growth rate

Wealth inequality

Urban/ regional wealth disparity

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media organizations to engage with

the future, build effective strategies,

innovate, and achieve results.

[email protected]

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Services include:• Media Strategy

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* Notes to the timeline This schedule for newspaper

extinction shows best

estimates given current trends.

The timeline is intended to

highlight the diversity of global

media markets and stimulate

useful strategic conversations.

Newspapers in their

current form becoming

insignificant is not the

same as the death of

news-on-paper, which

will continue in a

variety of forms.

Ways that newspaper publishers of

today will succeed in the transition

beyond “newspapers in their

current form” include transitioning

to other channels, providing

personalized news-on-paper, and

tapping niche markets.

Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors