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New Mega Trends Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives Phil Howarth, Partner

New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

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Page 1: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

New Mega Trends Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future

Business, Cultures and Personal Lives

Phil Howarth, Partner

Page 2: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Agenda

• Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends

• Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future

1. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors

2. “Smart” is the New Green

3. Social Trends: Generation Y

4. Beyond “The BRICS”

5. Connectivity and Convergence

6. Innovating to Zero !

7. Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

• Key Strategic Conclusions

Page 3: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Definition of a Mega Trend

What is a Mega Trend? Impact of Mega Trends on Key

Organisational Functions

Mega Trends are global, sustained

and macro economic forces of

development that impact business,

economy, society, cultures and

personal lives thereby defining our

future world and its increasing pace

of change

Marketing and

Strategy

R&D Budget

Spending

Competitive Benchmarking

Product Planning

and Development

Technology Planning

Innovation Scouting

Page 4: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000?

• China as an Emerging Super Power

• Internet Retail and E-Commerce

• From Industrial to Information Society

• Outsourcing as a Business Model

Page 5: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 1:

Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”

Page 6: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Cities Mega

Regions

Mega Slums Mega

Corridor

Page 7: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future

Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogota account for 50% of the country’s GDP;

Gauteng will account for roughly 40% of South Africa’s GDP by 2020

What are the Micro Implications? New Products and Solutions

High Economic Power

Hub and Spoke Business Model

Transit oriented development

New Mobility Solutions

City as a Customer

Page 8: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

From Cities Designed around Cars, Cars Are Designed around Mega Cities - BMW i3 and i8 Megacity Vehicles

Autonomous Parking

Assistance

Traffic Jam Assistance Range Assist

Pro-active Collision

Warning Pure Electric, Zero Emission

Voice Recognition

Panoramic Roof

Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic

Plug In Hybrid, 1.5L 3 Cylinder Gasoline, 66 g/km

Aluminium Chassis

BMW i3 Electric City Car

BMW i8 Plug In Hybrid Sports Car

Smartphone App based remote vehicle

management (in-house app development)

Rapid Charging

Opening up iDrive API to third

party app developers

Investment in app companies that

provide mobility related apps

Multimodal Transport & EV related app – includes dynamic intermodal transport planning

Page 9: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Urbanisation in Africa

Lagos+Eko Atlantic City

16.3 Million People

Luanda & Dar Es Salaam • 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from

4.7 million in 2010 to over 8 million by 2025 forming a mega-city

of high population density and commercial activity

Abidjan – Accra – Lagos & North South Corridors • Transport routes across the region will be

expanded and integrated to create corridors for trade and inter-

-continental co-operation by linking mega-cities

Lagos and Eko Atlantic City Region • Lagos’s Eko Atlantic City will merge with

the city of Lagos to form a future business gateway to Africa – a

mega-region of over 16 million

Cairo

Cape Town

Luanda

Ouagadougou

Accra

Abidjan

Page 10: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

African Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%,

1.2 billion people, 60% of Africa’s population, will be urbanised by 2050

Growth of African Cities % increase, 2010- 2025 forecast

0 20 40 60 80 100

Cape Town

Johannesburg

Durban

Cairo

Casablanca

Algiers

Alexandria

Douala

Accra

Ibadan

Lagos

Dakar

Abidjan

Addis Ababa

Luanda

Kinshasa

Nairobi

Dar es Salaam

Data Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010

Algiers

Dar es Salaam

Alexandria

Nairobi

Casablanca

Accra

Abidjan

Addis Ababa

Dakar

Ibadan

Douala

Cape Town

Durban

5.6 million

3.6 million

4.1 million

4.3 million

3.2 million

3.1 million

4.7 million

6.2 million

6.2 million

3.8 million

3.2 million

3.5 million

6.3million

Luanda 8 million

Migration Urban Population, 2025 Mega City population, 2025

Page 11: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer”

Rail Systems

Mobility & Logistics

Low & Medium Voltage

Smart Grid

Building Technologies

OSRAM

Integrated Competencies into One Division Pre- October 2011 Siemens’ Sectors

Infrastructure &

Cities

Post-October 2011

“City as the Customer” Energy

Healthcare

Industry

Page 12: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 2:

Smart is the New Green

Page 13: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth
Page 14: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition

Telecom Players

IT Players

Energy/Infrastructure Players

Automation/Building Control Players

Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market players

Point of Convergence

Verizon

O2

Deutsche Telekom

Cisco

IBM

Schneider Electric

Alcatel-Lucent

Senergy

Eaton Siemens

General Electric

ABB Emerson

Honeywell

Rockwell Automation

Johnson Controls

SAP

HP ST Electronics

Oracle

Google

Microsoft

Page 15: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 3:

Social Trends

Page 16: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Gen Y Geo Socialization

“She-conomy”

Ageing Population

Reverse Brain Drain

Middle Bulge

Generational Political Shift

Surge in Asian Work

Pool

Page 17: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

0.36 0.44

0.14 0.07 0.13

0.33 0.22

0.37

0.63

0.22 0.13 0.26

0.44

0.51

0.33

0.19

0.21

0.11

0.23

0.47 0.57

0.07

0.47

0.12

0.07

0.22

0.09

0.16

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, Caribbean and

Oceania

North America Europe India China

Po

pu

lati

on

in B

illio

n

65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14

1.69

2.56

2.1

1.2

Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Population

Between 15-34 Years - Around 61% from Asia Alone

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

2010 2020 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020

1.81

2.24

2.25

0.53

6.83 Billion

7.55 Billion

Population in Billions

Around 37% of 15-34

Population Will Live in

India and China Alone in

2020

Page 18: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Personalization and Individualization

Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7

Civic and Environmentally

Friendly

Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”

Personalized Search and News

Social Networking Profiles

Personalized Products

Gaming Gizmos

Smart Phones

Facebook-on-the Move

Microblogs

Eco- Transport

Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)

Paperless Banking

Instant Text Messaging

Instant Chat

Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)

Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest

and Lifestyle

Page 19: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 4:

Economic Trends

Page 20: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

The Next Game Changers in 2025

$2,827 Billion

$5,437 Billion

$1,098 Billion

$811 Billion

$1,167 Billion $2,441

Billion

$653 Billion $6,235

Billion

$38,526 Billion

$6,189 Billion

$772 Billion $323

Billion

$483 Billion

Mexico Brazil

Argentina

Egypt

South Africa

Turkey

Poland

India

China

Russia

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippines

BRIC Nations

Next Game Changers

Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections .

$4,816 Billion

Page 21: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Country Comparison for Economic Diversity and Export Strength (Africa), 2010

The African Game Changers – Economic Diversification

Algeria

Angola

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Congo, Rep.

Cote d'Ivoire

Egypt

Ethiopia

Ghana Guinea Kenya

Madagascar

Morocco

Mozambique

Namibia

Nigeria

Rwanda

Senegal

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Sudan

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda

Zambia

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

Exp

ort

Str

en

gth

: P

er

Cap

ita E

xp

ort

s (

US

$)

Economic Diversity: Manufacturing and Services Value Added (% of GDP)

Oil Producers

(Primary

sector

contributes to

largest share

of GDP and

exports)

Diversified

In Transition

Highly

dependant on

primary sector

Note: Bubble Size Denotes GDP Per Capita (Current US$)

Page 22: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 5:

Connectivity & Convergence

Page 23: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020

5 billion internet users by 2020

5 connected devices for every user by 2020

500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020

80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020

Page 24: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications

By 2020, there will be

approximately 927 Satellites

(Communication – 405; Earth

Observation – 151; Navigation

– 85; Reconnaissance – 212

and R&D 75)

Automobile Navigation

and Intelligent Traffic

Control System

Applications

Galileo - intended to

provide more precise

measurements than GPS

or GLONASS

China developing Beidou

Commercial market will be

driven by broadcast; Mobile

Satellite Services (MSS); voice

and data applications,

bundling IPTV

GNSS Enabled Applications:

• Navigation (Civil, Military)

• Broadband Internet and

Wireless Network

• GNSS based medical

monitoring and drug delivery

system

• Automated guidance of

machines, real-time structure

monitoring, logistics and site

management

Page 25: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Africa will experience a 530% increase in international bandwidth through undersea fibre cables by 2020

`

Egypt (North Africa) • Landings points for SEA-ME-WE 4 and EIG • SEACOM traffic is routed on SEA-ME-WE via Egypt •Investments in IT hosting services and BPO will leverage redundant bandwidth routes from multiple cables • Egypt will become a key international hub for international data carriers

Kenya (East Africa) • Investments in VoIP will benefit from cheaper

bandwidth • East Africa will be home to 40% of Africa’s

contact centres • Cheaper bandwidth and growing skill base to

boost ICT BPO services • Abundant bandwidth will present investment

opportunities for providers of rich media services such as IPTV in East Africa

Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal (West Africa) • IPTV will be a key investment opportunity for ISPs and TV broadcasters in west Africa • A high population in Nigeria will present investment opportunity in community based social media • Demand for better mobile voice and broadband quality will present investment opportunities for solution vendors

South Africa • ISPs will leverage elaborate support infrastructure and

reliable electricity supply to invest in hosted services • South Africa will be home to 60% of Africa’s ICT data centre

and cloud computing platforms • ISPs and TV broadcasters will invest US$10 billion in IPTV

delivery systems • International data carriers will leverage South Africa’s

position to invest in IP transit networks for Southern Africa countries

US$ 4,000 million investment by 13 undersea cable providers will result in a 90% decline in the wholesale cost of international bandwidth

2020

2010

Undersea Fibre Bandwidth

10,600 Gbps 56,200Gbps

Five new satellite companies using Ka band medium earth orbit satellites

2020

2010

Satellite Bandwidth

10Gbps

100Gbps

6,400 Gbps

9,600 Gbps

5,460 Gbps

19,700 Gbps

6,400 Gbps 16,200 Gbps

12,800 Gbps

26,100 Gbps

Page 26: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility

Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try

Products without leaving their homes

Virtual Classes and Laboratories and

Daily 3D Field Trips

to Different Countries and Planets

Virtual Surgeries

and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences

Social Networking: 3D Avatars

Enabling People to Lead Multiple

Lives

Page 27: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 6:

Innovating to Zero

Page 28: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020

Zero Emissions from Cars

Zero Accidents

Zero Breaches of

Security

Zero Crime Rates

Zero Waste/ Emissions

Complete Recyclability from

Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)

Zero Defects and Zero

Faults

Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores

Carbon Neutral Cities

Zero Corporate

Debts

Zero Emails

Page 29: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Innovating to Zero Strategy Examples

Page 30: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mega Trend 7:

Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

Page 31: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Mood

Stress levels

Mental health

Sense of optimism

Attitude

Security

Safety

Personal values

Personal fulfilment

Self image / self actualisation

Sight / vision

Touch & feel

Smell / breathing

Sound

Temperature

Wellness

The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being

Page 32: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

Page 33: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Key Strategic Conclusions

1. Mega Trends impact multiple industries. Examine them carefully to optimally develop

medium and long term strategies in current and new markets

2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend, possible convergence

and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability

3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable

opportunities

4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the

life-cycle speed of the past decade

5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation

structure to best exploit the opportunities

6. In Africa we need to particularly understand the opportunities arising locally as a

consequence of global mega trends – e.g. local markets, international markets, as part

of international supply chain

Page 34: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Three Phased Approach To Identify Emerging Opportunities: Robust Methodology to Evaluate Top Mega Trends

MT

MT

MT MT MT

MT

MT

MT MT MT

MT MT

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

MT MT

MT MT

Mega Trends Presentation or Workshop is the First Step

Final output : Defined short list of the 4 or 5 most market

attractive, easy to implement and high ROI Mega Trend

opportunities

Short list Top 10-15 Mega Trends Which Provide Most Opportunity/Impact to Company

• Short-list 10 most relevant Mega Trends to Company X and create a short profile of each MT

• Prioritize the 5 most relevant MTs for Company X and conduct a top level assessment of these MTs to Company X

• Conduct a detailed assessment of these MTs to Company X with a follow-up workshop or consulting assignment

• Develop tactical business plan and implementation strategy

• Develop a monitoring, evaluation, and optimization strategy

Detailed Assessment (Phase 2) and Tactical Business Plan (Phase 3) Can Take the Form of Consulting Engagement or Follow Up Workshops

Page 35: New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

Contact Us

Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation

(+44) 2079157843

[email protected]

Archana Amarnath Program Manager, Visionary Innovation Research Group

(+44) 2079157893

[email protected]

Phil Howarth Partner Africa & Latin America

(+27) 21 680 3269

[email protected]