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Navigating the New Industrial Revolution(s)
---Implications for CFOs
Professor Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
@RobinTeiglandNovember 2016
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
2015
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next
ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
Human-like face with social intelligence
2016
http://www.furhatrobotics.com/furhat/
Valuecreation
People• “Net generation”• 24x7 “mobile”
workforce• Knowledge via MOOCs• Sharing not owning• Sustainability• Gigs and not jobs
Technology • Broadband• Smart phones• Cloud• Internet of Things • Big Data• Cognitive
computing• 3D printing• Robotics/AI• VR/AR/ Holography
Open Source IP
• Software • Hardware• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance•
Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P
• Cryptocurrencies• Blockchains• Mobile
money/payments • M2M payments
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfd3k4VUYh4&t=1075s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfd3k4VUYh4&t=1075s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfd3k4VUYh4&t=1075s
FIRM YEAR FOUNDED NO. EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 116,000 $53B
UBER 2009 7,000 $60B
MARRIOT 1927 200,000 $17B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B
WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $165B
FACEBOOK 2004 12,691 $315B
KODAK 1888 145,000 $30B (heyday)
INSTAGRAM 2010 13 $1B (acquisition)
2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary – licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Something fundamental is changing
Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain
Supply-side economies of scale
• Launched June 2010• 519 cities in >68 countries
• Limited physical assets• 7000 employees
• USD 62.5 bln valuation
(BMW, 1916, 116,00 empl, USD 53 bln)
“Doing more with less” through a global platform
Network EffectsValue rises as more people
use the platformMetcalfe’s Law
Platform-based business models
PIPELINES PLATFORMS
Create Innovation COMPANY ROLE Enable interactions
Consume innovation CUSTOMER ROLE (Co)-create innovation
Supply-side economies of scale
SCALING ADVANTA
GEDemand-side economies of scale (network effects)
Optimize value chain and run more efficient
operationsSCALING FOCUS
Optimize interactions and build more networking
effects
CONSUMERS COMPANY EXTERNAL INNOVATORS
COMPANY
Thomas Kohler, 2016
Community platform
Hierarchical firmVS
Microsoft~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., eZ Systems~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
Platforms enable ecosystems
Local Motors to print 3D cars in its micro-factories
Converging technologies
3D printing Robot
Blockchain/AI
Drones/IoTSocial Robots
The Blockchain is the glue that is going to drive a productivity revolution across the
globe on par with what Henry Ford did with the automobile.
— Paul Brody, Americas Strategy Leader, Technology Sector, Ernst & Young
All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are
about the future.
What we don’t know we don’t know
Most of what we need to know to make good
decisions today is outside our comprehension: We
don’t even know it’s there.
What we know
What we know we don’t know
Looking into the future?
Forecast−How we think the future will be
Vision−How we want the future to be
Scenario−What the future can be
Scenarios: Memories from the future
????
Galina Shubina 2016
ExploitationImproving
existing value creation activities
ExplorationDeveloping new value creation activities
Adapted from March 1991
Reallocating capital
The heads of many companies are not skilled at capital allocation.……But today, capital allocation is Job 1. And investing in today’s
digital business models is critical.— Warren Buffet
https://hbr.org/2016/09/investors-today-prefer-companies-with-fewer-physical-assets
Four faces of the CFO
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/finance/articles/gx-cfo-role-responsibilities-organization-steward-operator-catalyst-strategist.html
Robin [email protected]
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
If you love knowledge, set it free…
If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC.Thank you!!!!!
