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New Business Models for Electric Vehicles:
Perspective from Frost & Sullivan, GM, Peugeot
Citroën and Think’s Senior Executives
December 17, 20093:00 P.M. GMT / 10:00 A.M. EST
Today’s Presenters
Tobias Reich,
Marketing Director Electric Vehicles
PSA Peugeot Citroën
Anthony L. Posawatz, P.E. (Tony)
Vehicle Line Director, Chevrolet Volt
Global Electric Vehicle Development
GM
Sarwant Singh, Global Partner Automotive &
Transportation Practice Director
Frost & Sullivan
Benny Daniel, Consultant
Frost & Sullivan
Richard Canny, CEO
Think
3
Current Electric Vehicle Industry Structure: Provides opportunity for a new entity
called Integrator to bring the EV services and value proposition together
Could work to improve charging time and safety
Infrastructure
supplier
Key Responsibility:
Development of
Charging
Infrastructure
Key Responsibility:
Promotion of EV
use
Utilities Integrator OEMs
System/Battery Manufacturers
GovernmentCharging Station
Manufacturers
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
and Government
Subsidies for
EV purchase
and
investment in
R&D to reduce
emissions
Lower fuel
dependency by
expanding the
use of
renewable
energy sources
Supplies
infrastructure to
distribute their
energy
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Development of
performing
batteries
4
• OEMs develop own / source charge stations
• Utilities –through renewable energy sources
• Consumers –through the excess energy generated from solar / turbine installations
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Integrators may own and operate certain EV services provided to consumers, while sourcing others from strategic partners.
• Utilities develop their own / sources charge stations
• Integrators develop their own stations
• Integrators source stations from third-party manufacturers
• OEMs selling through distributor networks
• OEMs using Internet-based sales channels
• OEMs selling through integrator networks
• Utilities emerging as OEM partners
• OEMs from distributor networks
• Battery swap specialists
• Utilities –showcasing engineering expertise
• IT industry or extension arm of OEMs for fleet mgmt.
• Integrators –through central control centres
• Mobile and network service providers
• Transportation industry (rail, trams, buses and so on)
• Charging station manufacturers
• Telematic/ navigation services
• OEMs through distributor networks
• Battery suppliers
• Utilities –showcasing green credentials
• Recycling companies
Po
ss
ible
Se
rvic
e O
wn
ers
hip
/
Pa
rtn
ers
hip
Sc
en
ari
os
Charging / Battery
Stations
Power / EnergyEV Charge Payment
OptionsEV Sales
Maintenance/
After-sales Service
Recycling / Battery
Recovery
Serv
ices
Definition of an Integrator - Innovative enterprise that forms the single business interface managing diverse services delivered to the EV consumer
• Integrators’battery swapping divisions
6 * 2 * 5 * 4 * 4 * 5 = 4,800 Theoretical Ownership / Partnership Combinations
5
Business Models Analysis: EVs will be sold through new channels such as subscription-based energy packages to offset the initial high cost of lithium-ion batteries
~ €900-€1,500€500- €800Up to €350Up to €150MONTHLY
LEASE
Free car40% car priceNANASUBSIDY
7 years4 yearsNANACONTRACT
(Illustration Only)
Flat: 30,000 kms/yearFlat: 25,000
kms/year
Flat: Maximum 2,000
kms/month
Monthly BillENERGY
(Illustration Only)
Maintenance Package+
Insurance+100%
Discount
Maintenance
Package+ Discount
Energy Package+
Maintenance
Partial Battery
Lease + Electricity
COVER
Full SubsidyPart SubsidyMaintenance PackageEnergy PackageTYPE
Business Model 4Business Model 3Business Model 2Business Model 1
Flexible Contract
Pay as you goMaximum number of
milesUnlimited Miles
Flexible Mileage
The customer opts for the number of years and a flexible mileage-customised lease
Other Possible Leasing Models Source: Frost & Sullivan
6
Breakdown of Energy Packages - Innovation lies in offsetting the high initial EV
cost by clubbing after-sales services as a subscription energy package
Subscription
per MonthRebates Car Price
Battery
Cost
Public
Charging
Battery
SwappingInsurance Maint.
Battery
Recovery
Car
Recovery
Ass.
ENERGY PACKAGE 1����€150 / month
����40% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 2����€350 / month����40% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 3����€800 / month
����60% subsidy����0% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 4����€1,500 / month
����100% subsidy
����0% Battery Recovery
PART
40%
40%
€150
€350
€800
€1500
60%
pric
e d
iffere
nce
betw
een
EV
s a
nd
IC e
ng
ine
veh
icle
s
€3,000
€3,000
AFTER-SALES SERVICESCOSTS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
(65%)
(70%)
(80%)
(100%)
(60%)
(75%)
(100%)
(100%)
7
Fleet Customer Total Cost of Ownership Analysis : A service Offering
around €550 to €650 Will Resonate Well with the Fleet Customer
Question: Please estimate how much you spend on the following per month (Euros) – based on 100 Fleet Manager Interviews in France, UK and Germany
• Interestingly, fuel amounts for up to 2/3 of fleet running costs across businesses interviewed with Business Delivery and Public sector seeing it take up the largest share of their Cost of Ownership
• EV’s should aim to address the Fuel and Road Taxing costs for businesses * Based on 93 Interviews with Fleet Drivers who are involved in the choice and running costs of their vehicle
Builing &
Maintenance
Bus Delivery Car Rental Public Sector Postal Utility
Fuel Maintenance Financing Leasing Insurance Road TaxRoad Congestion Others
€645 €627
€265
€546
€435
€396
27%
56%
28%
63%
53% 63%
€645 €627
€265
€546
€435
€396
27%
56%
28%
63%
53% 63%
8
CAGR = 161%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 127%
(Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year)
CAGR = 242%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 153%
(Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year)
CAGR = 158%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 153%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 242%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR
€150K - €165K6. Revenues from Music Download
€ 340Mn - € 345Mn7. Revenues from Others
€25K - €27K5. Revenues from Garage Referrals
€600K - €625K4. Revenues from Diagnostics
€490Mn - €500Mn3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations
€650Mn - €700Mn2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations
€390Mn - €400Mn1. Revenues from Selling Electricity
Calculated over 5 yearsSource Of Revenue Generation
Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside Selling
Energy
Capital Investment(1st yr)
Fixed & Operating Cost
TOTAL: €1.9Bn - €2Bn
€640Mn - €650Mn
€48Mn - €50MnIncludes:
�New Energy Capacity
�Network Recurring Cost
�Charging Station Purchase Cost
�Installation and Maintenance cost
�Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost
9
Q&A
10
Next Steps
� Request a strategic approach document for EV Growth Partnership Service or Growth Consulting Service� to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company.
([email protected]) +44 (0)20 7343 8383
� Frost & Sullivan Workshop: Growth Opportunities and New Business Models in the Electric Vehicles MarketDates: Tuesday 26th (1:00pm – 3:00pm) January 2010
Venues: EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting at the Washington Auto Show (www.electricdrive.org)
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation and Leadership 2010: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on � Corporate Growth London, United Kingdom, 17th to 19th May 2010
� (www.gil-global.com)
� Register for Frost & Sullivan Annual Electric Vehicle Workshop: ELECTRIC VEHICLES UNPLUGGED� New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends
Dates: Tuesday 22nd (afternoon) and Wednesday 23rd June (all day) 2010Venues: The Lords Terrace in the House of Lords and the SMMT
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity� Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
11
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12
For Additional Information
Monika Kwiecinska
Corporate Communications
+48 223904127
Cyril Cromier
Sales Director
Automotive & Transportation
+33 (1) 42 81 22 44
Brian Drake
Business Development Director
(+1) 248-836-8260
Sarwant Singh
Partner & Practice Director Automotive & Transportation Practice
+44 207 915 7843
