Upload
poultry-india
View
872
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1 I Godrej Agrovet
INDIAN POULTRY INDUSTRY - POTENTIAL, CHALLENGES & WAY FORWARDNovember, 2015
POTENTIAL
3 I Godrej Agrovet
INDIAN POULTRY INDUSTRY IS WORTH ABOUT INR 1,00,000 CRORE
Source: News articles and GAVL analysis
Urban; 80%Rural; 20%
Poultry Demand (2014)
Poultry Industry contributes 0.9% to India’s GDP
Layer Egg Industry
75 Billion Eggs in 2014
Poultry Meat Industry
4.2 Mn MT in 2014
INR 1 Lakh Crore
Growing at 8-10%
Primarily driven by
Urban India
4 I Godrej Agrovet
FUTURE GROWTH IN POULTRY MEAT WOULD BE ROBUST COMPARED TO HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES
2007 2011 2014 2015-19 20201.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
2.73.4
4.2
6.9
Poultry Meat Gross Consumption (Mn MT)
CAGR:6.4%
2007 2011 2014 2015-19 20201.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5
2.32.7
3.3
5.0
Per Capita Annual Chicken Consumption (Kg)
CAGR:8.5%
CAGR:7.2%
Source: GAVL analysis
5 I Godrej Agrovet
…LAYER EGGS WOULD ALSO EXHIBIT BETTERGROWTH IN THE FUTURE
2009 2014 2015-19 20200
20406080
100120
60.375.0
111.6Layer Egg Production (Bn Eggs)
CAGR:4.5%
2009 2014 2015-19 20200
1020304050607080
5055
76
Per Capita Annual Egg Consumption (No. of Eggs)
CAGR:6.9%
CAGR:5.5%
Source: GAVL analysis
6 I Godrej Agrovet
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS LIKE POPULATION GROWTH ANDURBANIZATION WILL DRIVE DEMAND FOR FINER FOODS
6
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14116118120122124126128
0.0%1800.0%3600.0%5400.0%7200.0%9000.0%10800.0%12600.0%
120.6122.1
123.7125.2
126.7India’s Population (Cr)
Population
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY1425%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%
30.5% 31.0% 31.5% 32.0% 32.5%
Urbanization
Source: World Bank, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation; Items include Eggs, Meat, Fish, Milk & Pulses.
Increasing population especially in urban areas is expected to drive demand
for poultry products
0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 >650%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
28.5%
18.1%
40.6%
7.0% 5.8%
Predominantly Young Population
7 I Godrej Agrovet
INCREASING PERCAPITA INCOMES AND CHANGINGLIFESTYLE WILL ALSO AID GROWTH IN POULTRY INDUSTRY
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY143,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
4,5894,841
4,9915,179 5,250
India Per Capita Annual Income (PPP ) (USD)
Source: World Bank, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
Increasing Number of Women in Workforce
Penetration of Organized Food ChainsProliferation of Eating Out Culture
8 I Godrej Agrovet
FUTURE OF POULTRY INDUSTRY LOOKS SECURE AS INDIATRIES TO RISE ABOVE THE TAG OF A DEVELOPING COUNTRY
Per Capita Poultry Meat Consumption one of the Lowest
Brazil USA Japan Thailand China Vietnam India1
11
21
31
41
51 47.0 44.0
13.5 13.0 10.0 7.53.3
KG/Annum
Per Capita Poultry Meat Consumption vs.
Per Capita GDP
Low per capita in India is holding back poultry meat consumption
Significantly high consumption in developed countries
Source: Rabo Bank; figures as of 2012
KEY CHALLENGES
10 I Godrej Agrovet
VOLATILITY IN BROILER PRICES IS HERE TO STAY
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-1
3
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-1
4
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-1
5
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
50
102030405060708090
100
57
Live Prices (INR)
Live Price
Live Prices have been highly volatile and remained almost flat on yearly basis.Volatility in prices results in Yo-Yo profits for integrators
Source: poultrybazaar.net
11 I Godrej Agrovet
INCREASING FEED COSTS PUTTING PRESSURE ON FARMERS
30%Trend 51%
Source: agriwatch.com, poultrybazaar.net
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-1
3
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-1
4
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-1
5
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
50
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
11,872
15,45220,702
31,177
Trend in Key Raw Material Prices (INR/MT)
Maize Price/MT Soya Price / MT
12 I Godrej Agrovet
PROFITABILITY GETS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTEDWHEN COMMODITY PRICES GO UP
Output Input
~17% ~73% ~10%
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-1
3
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-1
4
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-1
5
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
50
20
40
60
80
100
57
Live Prices vs. Commodity Prices in INR/Kg
Live Price Maize Price Soya PriceSource: GAVL analysis
WAY FORWARD
14 I Godrej Agrovet
INNOVATE CONTONOUSLY TO BRING DOWN THE COST OF REARING THE BIRD
One of its kind private sector investment in Animal husbandry R&D
Focused on improving the Compound feed productivity in Cattle and Poultry
Nadir Godrej Center for Animal Research & Development
15 I Godrej Agrovet
COMMUNICATE THE VALUE PROPISITION At current prices poultry is a cheaper source of protein than pulses !
* Egg price at INR 50 per dozen; weight of egg at 50 grams; Chicken prices taken at dressing chicken prices;
Current Price Rs/ Kg
% Digestible Protein
Rs/ Gm of Digestible protein
180
160*
84*
14.8%
21%
11.2%
1.21
0.75
0.75
Tur Dal
16 I Godrej Agrovet
BRANDS CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASEREALIZATIONS AND PROFITABILITY
Standardization
Quality/Safety Assurance
Trust
Emotional Attachment
Branded
Unbranded
Additional Realization because of
Value Addition and Branding
Even when the prices of unbranded products become volatile, realizations don’t drop significantly in branded products because of value addition and branding
17 I Godrej Agrovet
OUR BRANDS, REAL GOOD CHICKEN AND YUMMIEZHAVE HELPED THE COMPANY LEAPFROG TO NEXT LEVEL
Improved pricing power Prices more or less stable through out the year
Reduced Exposure to Cyclicality1
Brand pull has resulted in guaranteed sale every month Diversification of customer segments has improved
sustainability of revenue
Sustainability2
Branding has resulted in significant increase in margins Despite volatile prices, margins weren’t affected
adversely
Improved Profitability3
Enabled us to respond quickly to market disruptions Improved control over pricing
Agility in Responding to
Market Dynamics4
18 I Godrej Agrovet
GODREJ’S JOURNEY OF BRANDING IN POULTRY
Innovation in product varieties Innovation in affordability of the product to expand
the customer base
Constant Product Innovation
Pre Cut Portions Curry Cut (Fat Trim)
Rs 48/ 400gm Lollipop Malai
Tikka
Western Range
Indian Range Kid Focus Indian
Center PlateAffordable
Range
19 I Godrej Agrovet
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND CONSIDERATION