1. MONEY, OUTPUT, ANDPRICES IN THE LONG RUN MODULE 32
2. MONEY, OUTPUT, AND PRICESMonetary policy is generally the
policy tool of choice to stabilize the economy.In the long-run,
changes in the quantity of money affect the aggregate price level,
but they do not change real aggregate output or the interest
rate.
3. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTSOF CHANGES IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYTo analyze the long-run effects of monetary policy, it is
helpful to think of the central bank as choosing a target for the
money supply rather than for the interest rate.To assess the
effects of changes in the money supply, we can analyze the long run
effects of changes in AD.
4. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYAn increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate,
which increases investment spending, which leads to a further rise
in consumer spending, and so on.An increase in the money supply
increases the quantity of goods and services demanded, shifting AD
to the right.
5. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYIn the short run, the economy moves to a new short run
equilibrium, with both the aggregate price level and aggregate
output increasing in the short run.However, the aggregate output
level is above potential output.
6. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYAs a result, nominal wages will rise over time, causing the
SRAS curve to shift leftward.This process stops when the economy
ends up at a point of both short-run and long-run equilibrium.
7. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYThe aggregate price level increases, but aggregate output is
back at potential output.So, in the long run, a monetary expansion
raises the aggregate price level, but has no effect on real
GDP.
8. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLY
9. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A DECREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYA decrease in the money supply raises the interest rate,
which decreases investment spending, which leads to a further
decrease in consumer spending, and so on.A decrease in the money
supply decreases the quantity of goods and services demanded at any
aggregate price level, shifting the AD curve to the left.
10. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A DECREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYIn the short run, the economy moves to a new short-run
macroeconomic equilibrium at a level of real GDP below potential
output and a lower aggregate price level.Both the aggregate price
level and aggregate output decrease in the short run.
11. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A DECREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYOver time, when the aggregate output is below potential
output, nominal wages fall.When this happens, the SRAS curve shifts
rightward.This process stops when the economy is at a point of both
short- run and long-run macroeconomic equilibrium.
12. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A DECREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLYThe long-run effect of a decrease in the money supply is that
the aggregate price level decreases, but aggregate output returns
to potential output.In the long run, a monetary contraction
decreases the price level, but has no effect on real GDP.
13. SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF A DECREASE IN THE MONEY
SUPPLY
14. MONEY NEUTRALITYA change in the money supply leads to a
proportional change in the aggregate price level in the long run.If
the money supply falls by 25%, the aggregate price level falls 25%
in the long run; if the money supply rises by 50%, the aggregate
price level rises 50% in the long run.
15. MONEY NEUTRALITYIf all the prices in an economy (prices of
final goods and services, and factor prices such as nominal wages)
double. At the same time, suppose the money supply doubles.This
would not make any difference to the economy, as all real variables
are unchanged.
16. MONEY NEUTRALITYThis is explained by: if the economy starts
out in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium, and the money supply
changes, in order to restore long-run macroeconomic equilibrium,
all real values must be restored to their original values, which
includes restoring the real value of the money supply to its
original level.
17. MONEY NEUTRALITYThis concept is known as money neutrality:
money is neutral in the long run.changes in the money supply have
no real effects on the economy in the long run.The only effect of a
change in the money supply is to change the aggregate price level
in the same direction by an equal percentage.
18. MONEY NEUTRALITYHowever, in the long run, we are all dead,
so monetary policy does have powerful real effects on the economy
in the short run, often making the difference between a recession
and an expansion, which matters for societys welfare.
19. CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE INTEREST RATE IN THE
LONG RUNIn the short run, an increase in the money supply leads to
a fall in the interest rate; a decrease in the money supply leads
to a rise in the interest rate.In the long run, however, changes in
the money supply dont affect the interest rate at all.
20. CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE INTEREST RATE IN THE
LONG RUNWhen the Fed increases the money supply, the interest rate
falls in the short run.Over time, however, the aggregate price
level rises, and this raises money demand, shifting the money
demand curve rightward.The economy moves to a new long-run
equilibrium and the interest rate rises to its original level.
21. CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE INTEREST RATE IN THE
LONG RUNThe long-run equilibrium interest rate is the original
interest rate because the eventual increase in money demand is
proportional to the increase in money supply, counteracting the
initial downward effect on interest rates.Changes in the money
supply do not affect the interest rate in the long run.
22. CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE INTEREST RATE IN THE
LONG RUNWith money neutrality, an increase in the money supply is
matched by a proportional increase in the price level in the long
run.The change in the aggregate price level then cause proportional
changes in the demand for money.
23. CHANGES IN THE MONEY SUPPLY AND THE INTEREST RATE IN THE
LONG RUNExample:1. A 50% increase in the money supply will raise
the aggregate price level by 50%2. This increase the quantity of
money demanded at any interest rate by 50%.3. The quantity of money
demanded rises by as much as the money supply, and the interest
rate returns back to its original level.