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+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
23 June 2016
Modelling Benefits at Project, Programme and Portfolio Level for EDF’s Nuclear Generation Fleet
David Liversidge
Principal Consultant
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
Background - the Problem
Our Approach
Our Plan
The Outputs: Models, Maps, Profiles, KPIs
An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and back again
Conclusions
Overview
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
EDF Nuclear Generation are the licensed operators of a Fleet of 7 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs)
With a range of Plant Life Extensions (PLEX) campaigns, the fleet is planned to be retired between 2025 and 2035
Lifetime Programmes are an organisation within EDF responsible for delivering a range of strategic programmes to ensure safe, cost-effective operation of the fleet for its remaining life
Carbon Deposition is one such cross-cutting lifetime programme; aimed at mitigating the effects of carbon build-up on the reactor fuel and auxiliary systems
The Carbon Deposition programme comprised 5 workstreams: Prevent; Remove; Harden; Understand; and Manage
BMT HQS were originally tasked by EDF to help deliver the major project under the ‘Prevent’ workstream called Deposition Resistant Fuel (DRF)
The DRF project was approaching its major investment decision point and our tasking was extended to cover development of a benefits model and realisation plan for this project
Background
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
Our Approach
Understand & Model the System
Identify & Map the Benefits
Value & Profile the Benefits
Plan Benefits Realisation
Confirm investment rationale & VFM in
portfolio
Ensure accountability & transparency
Develop a logical basis for future steps
Define system into which the benefits will be delivered
Realise Benefits
Physical & Management Systems Interfaces & Relationships understood. Problem and solution space bounded. Baseline ‘As-is’ performance agreed
Causal relationships between candidate change projects & programmes, outcomes, & benefits agreed. Scale of benefits estimated. Interdependencies between changes characterised
Time-phased profiles of benefits showing quantified baseline & target levels in financial & non-financial terms. Balance of investment options appraised.
Benefits prioritised, appropriate tracking measures selected & assigned to BCMs. Plan to realise benefits & mitigate blockers.
BCMs monitor & report via PMO / PfMO
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
Catalytic CD on
Fuel Pins
Fuel Element
Heat Transfer
Impairment
Increase in Clad
Temp
Post Irradiation
Examination
HTI
Assessment
Process
Increase in
Fission Gas
Pressure
Modelled
Values
(Temperature &
FGP)
Measured
retrospectively
(post dwell) by
Recrystallisation
Clad Melt
Clad Cracking
Increased
Temperature
Variations
Start-Up RFF
Fuel Fault
Studies
Fuel Duties
Fuel Failure
Limiting
Conditions of
Operation
Safety Cases
Assessed
retrospectively
(post dwell) by
HTI SRU
Allowances
Safety Case
Anomaly
Process
If HTI
Allowances >
Safety Case
Limits
Management System
Fuel System
Normal Fuel
System
Operation
Prevents
Defines
Operational
Restrictions
Failed Fuel
stringers
removed early
Failed Fuel
bottled and
stored at station
Failed Fuel
moved to B13
Causes
Failed Fuel
subject to PIE
Failed Fuel
processed and
stored long term
Failed Fuel Route
Nuclear Safety
Requirements
Clad melt
Depressurisatio
n
Asymmetry
PCI Technical
Specifications
X%
100 - X%
Fission Gas
Over Pressure
Modelled
retrospectively
(post dwell) by If modelled
values >LCOs
Constrains
Station Compliance Route
Catalytic CD on
Boiler
Components
Boiler Heat
Transfer
Impairment
Spalled Carbon
Impairs Gas
and Fuel Route
Plant
Reduced Boiler
Thermal
Efficiency
Gas/steam
Temperature
Monitoring
Increased
Rework &
Maintenance Monitored ‘in
line’ by
Boiler System
Normal Boiler
System
Operation
Prevents
Output 2: System Model
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
[Redacted]
Output 3: Benefits Maps
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
[Redacted]
Output 4: Benefit Profiles
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
[Redacted]
Output 5: Realisation Plan (KPI)
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again
Plan Benefits Realisation
Understand & Model the System
Identify & Map the Benefits
Developed a logical system model to capture the complex interactions between the problem (Carbon Deposition) and the impacts of this on the system
Developed a logical benefits map which helped EDF to gain an understanding of how to manage its whole portfolio as opposed to stand-alone projects and programmes
Developed a benefits profiling tool combined with cost modelling work to enable a ‘complete package’ of cost-benefit analysis for a range of assumptions, what-if scenarios. Working with a wide group of stakeholders added robustness to the decision making process
Value & Profile the Benefits
Development of KPIs for ongoing management of Carbon Deposition
This analysis enabled EDF to prioritise their investment across the portfolio and take a conscious strategic decision of alternative action to invest based on maximising safety and financial benefits
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
Be careful what you ask for!
‘Whole System’ models can help understanding and identifying complex cause-and-effect chains; especially where the ‘problem’ consists of technical and organisational systems interacting
Stakeholder engagement throughout the process is vital
A Benefits driven view of dependencies at programme and portfolio level gives an invaluable perspective to support decisions and ongoing change management
A Time based perspective of Benefits is key: the baseline now will not be the same as the baseline at implementation; you need to understand if some of your ‘sandwiches will be eaten’
Benefits Quantification is an inexact science: maps and models will help but values will be a mix of objective and subjective. You therefore need to understand risk and uncertainty and model in your estimates including sensitivity (what-if) analysis to test key assumptions
Presentation of results must support decisions: Investment Appraisals and Business Cases; Discounted Cash Flows;
There should be a parity of rigour in developing cost and benefits, as well as shared data, assumptions, risks, etc.
key lessons EDF Case Study
thank you
+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd
BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Berkeley House, The Square Lower Bristol Road Bath, BA2 3BH United Kingdom www.bmt-hqs.com Tel: +44 (0) 1225 820980 Fax: +44 (0) 1225 820981 Mob: +44 (0)
David Liversidge
7799 903549
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