Efficient EnterprisesPowering American Industry

Michael LubellAmerican Physical Society

&Department of Physics, CCNY

March 19,2010

What We Will Cover

• Climate change science: a primer

• Energy policy: a prudent approach

• Energy efficiency: now and in the future

• Climate change R&D: a way forward

• Electricity production: an observation

The Greenhouse EffectSimplified Picture

The Greenhouse EffectMore Complete Picture

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Well: Settled Science

• Absorption of IR by greenhouse gas molecules

• Increase of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Less Well

• Temperature of the Earth and correlation with CO2

Climate ChangeWhat We Know Even Less Well

• Climate models

–Global

–Local

–Predictability

–Confidence

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well

• Dwell time of CO in the atmosphere

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Do Know Well

• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years

• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon

Climate ChangeBut What We Also Know Well

• Dwell time of CO2 in the atmosphere: hundreds of years

• Compare ozone hole and dwell time of Freon: decades

And Even with the Ozone Hole…

Note: 1 Dobson Unit = 0.01 mm

Energy Policy

Climate Change & Energy Security

Energy Policy

Climate Change & Energy Security

• Energy Efficiency– Prudent policy

– It costs the economy nothing to deploy existing technologies

– But we must invest in research to develop future technologies

A Promotional Announcement

www.aps.org/EnergyEfficiencyReport/

Energy Policy

Climate Change & Energy Security

• Climate change R&D– White House roadmap: $15 billion/yr federal R&D

investment needed to achieve 83% target reduction by 2050

– Unfortunately existing climate bills virtually ignore research We will never reach the target!

Energy Policy

Climate Change & Energy Security

• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Five percent of total carbon allowances issued

annually should be dedicated to funding basicresearch and long-term applied research to helpachieve the 83% carbon reduction goals.

– The Secretary of Energy should prepare a long-term research plan and provide annual updates toassure targets are met.

– To the maximum extent practicable, multiyearprojects should be fully funded at their initiationwith reviews of projects taking place annually.

Energy Policy

Climate Change & Energy Security

• Some ideas for funding climate change R&D– Funds should be used for competitively awarded

research in the following areas:» New lower, or zero, carbon emission energy resources

and technologies, including increased efficiency.

» Improved methods for capturing and sequesteringgreenhouse gases.

» Climate change research, including its modeling andmonitoring.

» The economic, behavioral and social factors affectingconsumer energy use.

One More Issue – Renewables in Brief

• Sources of electric power: load classification

– Coal: base load

– Nuclear: base load

– Hydro: base load

– Natural gas: “peaker” as currently used

– Wind: intermittent

– Solar: intermittent

• Fundamental requirements for wind and solar scale-up

– Grid

– Electricity storage

What We Covered

• Climate change science: a primer

• Energy policy: a prudent approach

• Energy efficiency: now and in the future

• Climate change R&D: a way forward

• Electricity production: an observation