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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 19 September 2016 - Issue No. 927 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE's first berth for VLCC tankers to be inaugurated in Fujairah (WAM) --- The UAE's first berth for very large crude carriers (VLCC) will be inaugurated in the Indian Ocean sea port of Fujairah on Wednesday, 21st September, by H.H. Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al Sharqi, Supreme Council Member and Ruler of Fujairah. Fujairah's oil terminal, considered the world's largest bunkering facility in terms of operational capacity, is set to enhance Fujairah's strategic position as a key hub for global oil trade, amid growing demand for oil. "The inauguration of the VLCC-1, the first of its kind in Fujairah, will support the demand for energy in the UAE and help keep pace with developments in this competitive sector," said Sheikh Saleh bin Mohammed Al Sharqi, Chairman of the Department of Industry and Economy at the Government of Al Fujairah, and chairman of the board of directors of Fujairah Sea Port. The seaport has been in operation since 1983, but the new VLCC facility will further establish the emirate of Fujairah and the UAE as key regional and global energy trade hubs, he added.

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Page 1: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase Energy News 19 September 2016 - Issue No. 927 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE's first berth for VLCC tankers to be inaugurated in Fujairah

(WAM) --- The UAE's first berth for very large crude carriers (VLCC) will be inaugurated in the Indian Ocean sea port of Fujairah on Wednesday, 21st September, by H.H. Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al Sharqi, Supreme Council Member and Ruler of Fujairah.

Fujairah's oil terminal, considered the world's largest bunkering facility in terms of operational capacity, is set to enhance Fujairah's strategic position as a key hub for global oil trade, amid growing demand for oil.

"The inauguration of the VLCC-1, the first of its kind in Fujairah, will support the demand for energy in the UAE and help keep pace with developments in this competitive sector," said Sheikh Saleh bin Mohammed Al Sharqi, Chairman of the Department of Industry and Economy at the Government of Al Fujairah, and chairman of the board of directors of Fujairah Sea Port.

The seaport has been in operation since 1983, but the new VLCC facility will further establish the emirate of Fujairah and the UAE as key regional and global energy trade hubs, he added.

Page 2: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Libya Clashes Halt First Oil Cargo From Ras Lanuf Since 2014 Hatem Mohareb Anthony Dipaola

Libya halted loading what would be the first overseas crude shipment from the port of Ras Lanuf since 2014 as rival armed forces fought for control of the facility, complicating efforts to end a five-year conflict that has slashed oil exports from the OPEC country.

Forces loyal to eastern-based military commander Khalifa Haftar repulsed a local Petroleum Facilities Guard unit that tried on Sunday to seize control of Ras Lanuf and the country’s largest oil port of Es Sider in east Libya, Mohammad Al-Azoumi, spokesman for a battalion under Haftar’s command, said by phone. Five petroleum guards were killed during the clashes, he said.

The fighting forced the tanker Seadelta to suspend the loading of 781,000 barrels of oil for shipment to Italy, Nasser Delaab, petroleum operations inspector at Harouge Oil Operations, said by phone. The tanker, which began loading earlier Sunday, sailed away from Ras Lanuf and may return to the port to finish taking on oil on Monday, he said. Another tanker, the Syra, will arrive

soon in Ras Lanuf to ship 600,000 barrels of crude to Italy, he said.

Libya is seeking to boost crude exports after fighting among rival militias slashed oil production following the 2011 ouster of former dictator Moammar Al Qaddafi. The conflict halted exports from the nation’s main oil ports of Es Sider, Zueitina and Ras Lanuf as the country struggled to form a unified national government. The National Oil Corp. planned to resume exports from the ports after reaching an accord with Haftar, who seized control of the facilities last week.

Largest Reserves

Haftar took Ras Lanuf and Es Sider from Ibrahim Jadran, leader of local Petroleum Facilities Guard units, giving the eastern region’s powerful military chief control of both shipping terminals and oil fields in Libya’s main producing areas.

The Seadelta was loading crude from onshore storage tanks, said Delaab, who helps organize oil movements at Ras Lanuf, Libya’s third-largest oil port. The vessel arrived there early Sunday from Trieste, Italy, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Libya, if it succeeds in shipping the Seadelta cargo from Ras Lanuf, will be selling into an oversupplied market in which crude is trading at about half its 2014 levels. The country holds Africa’s largest oil reserves and pumped 1.6 million barrels of crude a day before Qaddafi’s ouster. Production has tumbled since then to 260,000 barrels a day in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and Libya now ranks as the second-smallest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, after Gabon.

Harouge Oil pumped about 100,000 barrels a day through the end of 2014 but halted operations due to fighting in the country, Delaab said. The company has production rights to at least five oil fields around Ras Lanuf, according to its website.

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GCC lighting fixtures market surges ahead Saudi gazette + NewBase

Despite a softening in some markets of the GCC construction sector amid a stuttering global oil price recovery, business in the regional lighting fixtures market appears to be booming.

International lighting manufacturers and local suppliers reported a number of significant regional projects over the last 12 months, and anticipate double-digit business volume growth over the next fiscal year.

Lighting solutions providers at the upcoming Light Middle East 2016 exhibition in Dubai said ongoing infrastructure investment and projects in the hospitality, retail, and entertainment sectors has led to full order books and strong demand for cutting-edge products and solutions.

Spanish manufacturer LEDS-C4 will be among more than 400 exhibitors from 30 countries at the three-day lighting design and technology showcase when it runs on Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2016 at the Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Carles Gutierrez, the Middle East Sales Director for LEDS-C4, said the company is looking to build on its successful outing at the show last year. “We established a strong network of regional clients during Light Middle East in 2015, especially from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,” he said.

“The regional lighting industry is vital and constantly changing, and LED lighting is a booming innovation which is currently on the fast track. Combining efficiency with lighting quality and output

Page 4: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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is the newly trending demand as customers are more environmentally aware and well educated about the benefit of having green buildings.

“This is good news for us and 2016 has been a very successful year so far. We are looking at 12 percent sales revenue growth from last year’s results,” added Gutierrez.

British company Mackwell, a manufacturer of emergency lighting and LED technology, is a debut exhibitor at Light Middle East 2016. Although active in the Middle East for more than 20 years, Mackwell recently opened its local company Mackwell FZE in Dubai, and has big plans to expand its regional market reach.

Rene Joppi, Mackwell’s General Manager for the Middle East, pointed to regional retail expansion and hospitality projects as a driving force for business growth. “The Middle East operation is a prosperous and fast growing unit of the Mackwell global business,” said Joppi, who listed the Dubai Mall, Address Boulevard Hotel, Mall of the Emirates, The Galeria, and Maaz Restaurant as key projects the company has worked on.

“It’s our biggest regional market beside our home market in the UK. The business plan focuses on consistent and steady growth within the next three years up to doubling the business volume of the region compared to today.”

Another Spanish company, Airfal International, will showcase at Light Middle East 2016 a range of technical lighting, ATEX, residential, commercial, industrial, waterproof, and explosion proof lighting.

“We want to take this opportunity at Light Middle East to find new potential customers who come to the show in search for quality and high technology products. We also think this is a great moment to start opening our OEM channel, a market where Airfal is taking its first step.”

“Almost all are unanimous in the positive impact of region-wide sustainable economic development policies that encourage the usage of energy efficient lighting systems, and as the leading networking platform for the industry in the region, Light Middle East plays a facilitating role in the completion of many business deals and fruitful partnerships.”

Now in its 11th edition, Light Middle East 2016 returns with its headline popular features including the Light Middle East Conference, bringing together key leaders to analyze innovative technologies, changing global trends and evolving regulations impacting the lighting industry.

Page 5: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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Indonesia's Medco close to buying Conoco's stake in South Natuna Sea Block B .. Source: Reuters / energy-pedia

Indonesia's Medco Energi is reported to be close to acquiring ConocoPhillips' entire 40 percent interest in the South Natuna Sea Block B oil and gas block.

If it goes ahead, Medco's acquisition of ConocoPhillips' interest in the block off the northwest coast of Borneo island would follow its purchase of a majority stake in Indonesia's second-biggest copper and gold miner Newmont Nusa Tenggara.

Medco is expected to announce the ConocoPhillips deal soon, said a source, who declined to be named as the information was not yet public. Reuters was unable to verify the likely value of the transaction.

South Natuna Sea Block B (Source: INPEX)

Apart from ConocoPhillips, others with participating interests in the block areChevron, with 25 percent, and Japan's INPEX, with 35 percent. The block is expected to produce 19,279 barrels of oil and 195.7 million standard cubic feet of gas a day in 2016, according to June data from Indonesia's energy regulator.

An Indonesian energy minister official said last December that both ConocoPhillips and Chevron had made written requests to sell their interests in the South Natuna Sea Block B. Several companies had expressed an interest in the stakes,

Upstream Oil and Gas Director Djoko Siswanto told reporters at the time, without providing further details.

Page 6: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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Norway: ENGIE E&P Norge makes oil and gas discovery northeast of the Gjøa field in the N. Sea ..Source: NPD

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate reports that ENGIE E&P Norge, operator of production licence PL 636, is in the process of completing the drilling of wildcat well 36/7-4. The well proved oil and gas.

The well was drilled six kilometres northeast of the Gjøa field and 55 kms southwest of Fløro. The objective of the well was to prove petroleum in Early Cretaceous reservoir rocks (Agat formation).

The well encountered an approx. 50-metre gas column and 60-metre oil column in the Agat formation. Reservoir quality ranges from very good in the top section to good in the lower section.

Preliminary estimation of the size of the discovery is between 4.3 – 11 million standard cubic metres (Sm3) of recoverable oil equivalents.

The well was formation-tested. The maximum production rate was 1.3 million Sm3 gas per flow day through a 76/64-inch nozzle opening. The gas/oil ratio is approx. 16,000 Sm3/Sm3. The formation test generally showed very good production and flow properties. Extensive data and samples were collected.

The licensees will consider a tie-in of the discovery to existing infrastructure on the Gjøa field.

36/7-4 is the first exploration well in production licence 636. The licence was awarded in APA 2011.

The well was drilled to a vertical depth of 2702 metres below the sea surface, and was terminated in the Åsgard formation in the Lower Cretaceous.

Water depth at the site is 349 metres. The well will now be permanently plugged and abandoned.

The well was drilled with the Transocean Arctic drilling facility.

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North Sea proves Against All Odds, Resilient to Oil-Price Slump Bloomberg - Rakteem Katakey

Oil producers in the North Sea were supposed to be among the first victims of OPEC’s battle for market share. Instead their high-cost, decades-old facilities are proving surprisingly resilient to the price slump.

Crude oil and condensate output is likely to continue rising in the U.K. North Sea until 2018 as projects that were sanctioned before crude’s plunge four years ago start up, according to estimates by industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Even though production dips after that, output by the end of the decade will still be roughly equal to the 2015 level.

Since 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped without limits and allowed prices to plunge to 12-year lows to squeeze higher-cost rivals. While the strategy is expected to reduce non-OPEC output by 840,000 barrels a day this year, the battle is far from over. The unexpected stamina of areas like the North Sea, where operators have proved adept at keeping the taps open to keep cash flowing, is adding to the global glut and keeping prices lower for longer.

“Production has stayed resilient,” said Ian Thom, an Edinburgh-based senior research manager for U.K. upstream at Wood Mackenzie. “We saw a record number of dollars invested in the high-oil price environment,” and that is still delivering new production.

OPEC and the International Energy Agency have said they expect production from some countries to increase, deferring a return to balance in the market. OPEC, responsible for more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, said Sept. 12 it expects production from outside the group will grow by 200,000 barrels a day next year, raising it from an earlier projection of a drop of 150,000 a day.

A day later, the IEA said it estimates supplies outside OPEC will rise by 380,000 barrels a day, rebounding from a sharp decline this year. Coupled with slowing demand, increasing output will delay the rebalancing of the market until the second half of next year, the Paris-based agency said. Only last month it predicted a return to equilibrium this year.

“There are pockets of resilience across the world,” IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview in London. “Some companies were able to bring costs down substantially and this provides some resilience.”

Production of crude and condensate, a type of light oil, will top 1 million barrels a day in the U.K. North Sea this year, about 8 percent higher than last year, according to Wood Mackenzie. Output will reach 1.07 million barrels a day in 2017 and 1.11 million the next year before falling to about 956,000 barrels at the end of the decade.

Post-Soviet High

When oil prices started their decline in the middle of 2014, some countries found it easier and cheaper to keep the fields running instead of shutting them now and starting again later. In Russia, production has been running at a post-Soviet high all year, Energy Ministry data show. The plunge in the ruble has reduced costs, offsetting the decline in oil prices.

Page 8: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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In Norway, companies have brought down costs and become more efficient. Output in Western Europe’s biggest producer has exceeded 2015 levels in six of this year’s first seven months, according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Efficiency gains and new field start-ups have helped the country beat the government’s own forecasts.

In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, output is projected to reach a record high in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, narrowing profit margins have forced many operators to pull back on future exploration spending, and they are putting fewer rigs to use, according to the agency.

Losing Steam

With oil’s downturn now running into its third year, companies’ and producing countries around the world are seeing their balance sheets getting weaker. Drillers have been cutting investments in exploration, contributing to a drop in discoveries to the lowest in seven decades. This will affect supply at some point in the future and, potentially, prices.

If oil prices continue to be low “the general trend is high-cost areas will lose steam sooner or later,” Birol said.

For now, operators in the U.K.’s North Sea are seeking to weather the price slump by cutting costs and even collaborating in ways they never thought possible. Earlier this year, some including Royal Dutch Shell Plc started pooling spare parts and tools, and are even sharing plans on how to drill wells so they can work faster and cheaper.

Companies are “working on cost efficiency reductions which seems to be going fairly well” in the North Sea, said Philipp Chladek, a senior industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence in London. “But without new investments in exploration, you will see the effects on production levels in three to five years.”

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NewBase 19 September 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil Prices up as Venezuela sees output deal, Libya suffers clashes Reuters + NewBase

Oil prices rose in Asian trade on this morning Monday after Venezuela said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were close to reaching an output stabilizing deal and as clashes in Libya raised concerns that efforts to restart crude exports could be disrupted. Brent crude futures were trading at $46.39 per barrel at 0046 GMT, up 62 cents, or 1.4 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 63 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $43.66 a barrel.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday that a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries could be announced this month. OPEC members may call an extraordinary meeting to discuss oil prices if they reach consensus at an informal gathering in Algiers this month, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said during a visit to Algeria, the country's state news agency, APS, reported on Sunday. "We had a long bilateral meeting with Rouhani. We're close to a deal between OPEC producer countries and non-OPEC," Maduro told a news conference. Iran's August crude exports jumped 15 percent from July to more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a source with knowledge of its tanker loading schedule, closing in on Tehran's pre-sanctions shipment levels of five years ago. Clashes in Libya, which halted the loading of the first oil cargo from Ras Lanuf in close to two years, also raised fears of a new conflict over Libya's oil resources.

Oil price special

coverage

Page 10: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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Eastern Libyan forces said they had reestablished control over two oil ports where an ousted faction launched a counter-attack on Sunday, briefly seizing one of the terminals. Brent and WTI prices were dragged to multi-week lows on Friday amid worries returning supplies from Libya and Nigeria would add to the global supply glut. Concerns over growing supplies remain a bugbear on sentiment as U.S. crude production continues to rise. U.S. drillers added oil rigs for an 11th week in the past 12, in the week to Sept. 16. Drillers added two oil rigs in the week to Sept. 16, bringing the total rig count up to 416, the most since February. U.S. gasoline futures opened 0.3 percent higher at $1.4659 per U.S. gallon after rising 2 percent on Friday because of outages on Colonial Pipeline's main gasoline line and in a key unit of BP's refinery in Whiting, Indiana. On Firady Oil prices sharply lower in week as global output mounts AFP

World oil prices sank lower this week on gloomy market forecasts, profit-taking and ever-present worries over the global supply glut, ahead of a producers’ meeting on September 26-28.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) set the tone on Tuesday, warning that oil demand growth was slowing while supply was rising.

But fresh data showing mounting US stockpiles of crude and products, and Libya’s pledge to sharply boost production and exports within weeks, added to the downward pressure on prices.

At the same time, Nigeria — Africa’s biggest crude producer — appears set to also increase its oil exports, traders said.

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On Friday in London trading, European benchmark Brent North Sea crude for November delivery slipped 82 cents to $45.77 per barrel from late Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in October slid 88 cents to $43.03 a barrel. That left Brent down 4.5 per cent for the week, while WTI lost 6.6 per cent.

Crude futures had netted gains during the previous week amid hopes of an OPEC-Russia deal to tackle oversupply — which has sent prices crashing in recent years — at the meeting in Algeria.

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam told AFP on Friday that the gains last week “were built on unsustainable and temporary factors that never warranted such a move.” “If we get no deal in Algeria ... then oil may face further downside pressure this month,” he added, noting that traders were also taking profits this week.

Hopes for a sustained rebound in demand were dashed this week by fresh warnings that a global supply glut would persist for longer than previously thought.

But the prospect of Nigeria and Libya restoring lost output was also key.

“Libya and Nigeria have probably the major impact on today’s market,” said James Williams of WTRG Economics. The IEA — which advises oil consuming nations on energy issues — forecast continuing oversupply in 2017 in its latest market assessment.

The organisation reversed its previous projection that oversupply would be soaked up by demand in the latter part of 2016. Instead, it warned that the glut would linger “at least through the first half of next year”.

“There seems to be no end to the bad news on the oil market,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

No oil production deal at Algiers meeting, says OPEC chief

By Reuters

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said the meeting of OPEC members and non-OPEC producers in Algiers this month would be an informal meeting for consultations and not for decision making, Algerian state news agency APS said on Saturday.

Algeria's energy minister has said there is a consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC producers about the need to stabilise the oil market to support prices.

"It will be an informal meeting, it is not a meeting for making decisions," Barkindo said during a visit to Algiers, according to APS agency, referring to an energy conference between Sept. 26 and Sept. 28. "We met in June, it is September now and a lot of things happened between the two dates," he said.

His comments appeared to play down suggestions of a major decision at the Algiers meeting where Russia, Iran and other major oil producers were due to meet on the sidelines.

Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed this month to cooperate in oil markets, saying they could limit future output. That pushed up prices on the view in markets that the two top oil producers would be working together to tackle oversupply.

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Several OPEC producers have called for an output freeze to rein in the glut, which arose as supplies from high-cost producers such as the United States soared. A price collapse in the last two years has hit the revenues of major producers.

OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has also signalled willingness to cooperate as it faces such pressures.

But any deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producer Russia would be the first in 15 years. Moscow agreed to cut output in tandem with OPEC at the turn of the millennium, although Russia never followed through on that promise.

OPEC May Hold Formal Meeting If Members Agree on Oil in Algiers Bloomberg- Salah Slimani markets at an informal gathering in Algiers later this month, Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said, according to Algeria’s official news agency.

Barkindo said he is “optimistic” about the informal session in Algiers to be held Sept. 27 on the sidelines of a conference of the International Energy Forum, Algeria Press Service reported Sunday. He made his comments after meeting with Algeria’s Energy Minister Nourredine Boutarfa, it said.

The Sept. 27 gathering will be a “meeting of consultation and not of decision-making,” unlike OPEC’s meeting in Oran, Algeria, in 2008, when it agreed to cut production, Barkindo said the previous day, APS reported on Saturday.

Almost two years after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries set a strategy to eliminate the global oil glut by pressuring rivals with lower prices, markets continue to struggle with excess

OPEC may convene an extraordinary meeting if the group’s ministers reach a consensus on oil supply and crude remains capped below $50 a barrel. OPEC plans to hold informal talks with competitor Russia in Algiers, fanning speculation that producers may agree on an output cap to shore up prices.

Possible Freeze

A freeze would be the group’s first decision to limit output since OPEC adopted a Saudi-led plan in 2014 allowing members to pump more to protect market share from increased production from the U.S. to Russia. OPEC members and Russia failed to agree at a meeting in Doha in April to limit production after Iran declined to attend and Saudi Arabia refused to proceed without all of the OPEC states participating.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, is willing to discuss a possible freeze, Khalid Al-Falih, the country’s oil minister, said in an interview last month. Al-Falih said he doesn’t “believe that an intervention of significance is required” and doesn’t support a production cut. Iran insists it will be ready to decide on capping production once output recovers to what it was before international sanctions on the country were tightened in 2012.

The International Energy Agency trimmed projections for global oil demand next year by 200,000 barrels a day to 97.3 million a day, the Paris-based group said in a report earlier this month. The IEA reduced growth estimates for this year by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day, citing a deceleration in China and India this quarter coupled with vanishing growth in developed economies.

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 19 September 2016

Introducing The Pre-Freeze Oil Boil By Julian Lee

Most oil-market observers will be keenly aware of a meeting in Algeria later this month at which the world's biggest producers will -- or won't -- commit to freezing their crude production. While talking about freezing supply may have helped to put a floor under oil prices, the outcome of the meeting itself is becoming more redundant by the day as almost all the world's top producers do exactly the opposite.

The big-4 Gulf Arab OPEC countries -- Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the U.A.E. and Kuwait -- are all producing at, or very close to, record levels. The reasons vary, but for each it comes down to pursuing established medium- to long-term market strategy. At the same time, output from neighboring Iran is at a five-year high, as the country races to restore pre-sanctions output and exports. No sign of a freeze here.

Setting Records

All the big Arabian Gulf oil producers are pumping near record levels

NOTE: The figure for Iran is its highest post-revolution production. Output briefly exceeded 6 million barrels a day in 1976-77.

Things are no different in Russia, which averaged more than 11 million barrels a day in the first half of September -- close to the record levels achieved in the mid-1980s. New fields in the

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Caspian Sea and the far north are starting to yield their first oil and there should be more to come in the months ahead.

Russian Surge

Russia's oil output hit a post-Soviet record 11 million barrels a day in the first half of September

Meanwhile, the two OPEC members whose production has been hit hardest by civil unrest are eyeing their own renaissance.

In Nigeria, ExxonMobil is preparing to resume shipments of Qua Iboe crude, the country's biggest export grade, while Royal Dutch Shell lifted restrictions at the Bonny terminal earlier this month. Combined exports of Qua Iboe and Bonny Light averaged more than 500,000 barrels a day last year, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Libya has lifted force majeure, a legal clause that allows companies to halt shipments without breaching contracts, at two of the country's three largest export terminals -- Es Sider, Ras Lanuf -- which have been out of operation since December 2014. This may allow Libya to double output to 600,000 barrels a day within four weeks and 950,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, National Oil Company Chairman Mustafa Sanalla said Tuesday.

Non-OPEC South Sudan, which saw output fall by more than half to at most 130,000 barrels a day after civil war erupted in 2013, is also aiming to restart production from fields in its Upper Nile region next month.

All three countries may struggle to sustain any increase because underlying political problems remain unresolved. In addition, the damage to oil production and transportation infrastructure in Libya and South Sudan has yet to be fully assessed. If it's extensive, then they may miss production targets.

Nevertheless, the countries are enjoying a more positive outlook for oil production than they have for many months.

Page 15: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

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As if that wasn't enough, both the International Energy Agency and OPEC last week cut their forecasts of how much of the group's oil will be needed for the rest of this year and next -- although they come at this revision from opposite directions.

The IEA pared its global demand outlook most severely for the current quarter, but also out to the end of next year, which is as far as its monthly report looks. OPEC -- which already expected weaker demand growth than the IEA -- has raised its forecast of non-OPEC production, partly to reflect the imminent start-up of the giant, but much troubled, Kashagan field in Kazakhstan.

WTI crude is down around 16% from its early-June peak of nearly $52 a barrel, a price level that the forward curve does not regain until 2019. That's 18 months later than it was a month ago.

Without a deal in Algeria that goes much further than an output freeze, "Lower for Longer" just got "Lower for Even Longer" -- again. Just don't expect the key players at that meeting to do anything meaningful about it. After all, their oil is still the cheapest in the world to get out of the ground.

Add on notes :-

Page 16: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 19 September 2016 K. Al Awadi

Page 17: Microsoft word   new base energy news issue  927 dated 19 september 2016

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17