Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Than 100 Micro-Mobility Vehicles by 2020

Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Than 100 MicroThan 100 Micro--Mobility Vehicles by 2020Mobility Vehicles by 2020

The The Rise of a NextRise of a Next--Generation Sustainable Generation Sustainable MobilityMobility

Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst

Automotive & Transportation

17 April 2012

© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of

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Today’s Presenter

Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing

relationships with senior executives in the

Vishwas Shankar

Industry Analyst – Automotive & Transportation

Frost & Sullivan

2

relationships with senior executives in the

• Microcars

• Electric Vehicles

• Micro-Mobility

•Carsharing

More than nine years of total work experience including working with Indian and multi-

national passenger car original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)

Focus Points

1

2

Introduction to Micro-Mobility – Definition and Segmentation

Comparative Analysis of Micro-Mobility Models

3

3 OEMs Launch Strategies and Micro-Mobility Model Homologations

4 Consumer Perception about Micro-Mobility

5 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations

Objectives of the Research

Introduction to Global Micro-Mobility Market

Provide insight into market participants and their target models

Analyse market drivers of the micro-mobility market

4

Understand the Competency levels in the System

Analyse the level of intelligence in the system Analyse the level of technology in the system

Comparative Benchmarking of Micro-Mobility Models

Analyse the market segmentation and target customers

Understand launch markets and homologation types

Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

Micro-Mobility Analysed In-depth as a Part of Global Mega Trends that will Impact Mobility in the Future

New Micro-Mobility products

E-MobilityUrbanization Mega and Smart Cities

5

Car Sharing/Car

Pooling

Geo-SocializationAnd Social Media

Integrated Mobility Solutions

Connected and Wireless Planet

Sustainable Public Transportation and

BRT

High Speed Rail

New Business Models (Value for Many)

Power to the Middle Class and Gen Y

Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

One-wheeled One-seating

One-wheeled One-standing

Two-wheeledOne-standing

Bike-type

Two-wheeledOne-standingSegway-type

Two-wheeledOne-seating

Bike-type

Two-wheeled Two-seatingSegway-type

Two-wheeled Four-seatingSegway-type

Three-wheeledOne-standingScooter-type

Three-wheeledOne-seating

Motorcycle-type

Three-wheeledOne-seating

Wheelchair-type

OP

EN

-T

OP

About 154 Micro-Mobility Models––How Many Do You Know?Each micro-mobility vehicle is either targeted at a conventional car or a two-wheeler user and conceptualized as an open- or closed-top model

6

Three-wheeled One-seating

Three-wheeledTwo-seating

Motorcycle-type

Four-wheeledOne-seating

Car-type

Four-wheeledTwo-seating

Car-type

Four-wheeledThree-seating

Car-type

CLO

SE

D -

TO

P


Market SegmentationThe electric, closed-top, four-wheeled models are currently popular among end-users; targeted at private ownership for city-driving

Micro-Mobility Market Solutions

Source of Vehicle Power

Human

Petrol

Based on Number of Wheels

One

Two**

Based on Targeted Commute

City driving

Last mile

Based on Business Model

Private ownership

Shared

Based on Vehicle Construction

Open top

Micro-Mobility Market: Market Segmentation, Global, 2011

**

7

Petrol

Diesel

Electric

Hybrid*

Any other type

Two**

Three

Four

Any other type

Last mile connectivity

Any other type

Shared ownership

Any other type

Closed-top

Any other type

* Includes human hybrid vehicles ** Includes passenger car OEMs and unconventional two-wheeled cycles, scooters, motorcycles from two-wheeler OEMs


*

**

Innovations in Battery, Motors,

and Other Vehicle Parts

Urbanization Leading to

Development of New Mobility

Solutions

Driv

ers

New Mobility Pattern to Help Ease Commutes

Convenient Ways of Commuting Targeted by

Developing Nations

Declining Car Ownership in Developed Regions

Market DriversEmerging new mobility pattern and changing car ownership among the key drivers for growth

Micro-Mobility Market: Key Market Drivers, Global, 2012–2018

8

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.Denotes long-term impact

Denotes current impact

Driv

ers

AsianNorth American European

Key Mainstream Market Participants and their Target ModelsMore than 111 models targeted by global passenger car OEMs in the micro-mobility market and nearly 50 percent of them to be production ready before 2015

GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely

OEM

One-W

heel

Tw

o-W

heel

Ve

hic

le T

yp

e

1

Micro-Mobility Market: Key Mainstream Participants and Target Models, Global, 2008–2018

9

P = Production ready

Four-

Wheel

Thre

e-W

heel

Ve

hic

le T

yp

e

4

1


Comparative Analysis—Vehicle Type vs. Maximum Driving RangeDriving range of micro-mobility models expected to be as high as 125 miles and as low as 4 miles.

Ra

ng

e (

Mil

es

)

7–62 miles

135

120

105

90

75

•Ford Achen 2015 T

•T3Motion ESV

•BMW Simple

•Icona E3WM

10–63 miles

32–125 miles

Micro-Mobility Market: Vehicle Type vs. Driving Range, Global, 2011–2018

10

Vehicle Type

Ra

ng

e (

Mil

es

)

•GM EN-V

•VW Bik.e

•VW e-Scooter

•Audi A0•Toyota Winglet

•Ryno bike

•Honda u3-x

•Ford ebike

•BMW e-scoot •Peugeot e-

vivacity

•Toyota Mobiro

•Honda EV-Neo •Suzuki e-Let’s

7–62 miles

4–16 miles

60

45

30

15

0Two-wheel Three-wheel Four-wheelOne-wheel

•Opel Rak–e

•Chrysler Peapod based

•Renault Twizy

•VW Nils

•Audi Urban Concept

•Ford Deakin 2015 T2

•Hyundai Eccov

•Segway Centaur

•Segway Puma•Honda EV–Monpal

10–63 miles

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Target CustomersTarget customers include city commuters as well as last-mile connectivity end-users.

Four-

wheel

Thre

e-w

heel

82 models

Nu

mb

er

of

Wh

eels

Micro-Mobility Market: Target Customers, Global, 2011–2018

11

Four-wheelOne-wheel Two-wheel Three-wheelOne-w

heel

Tw

o-w

heel

Thre

e


30 models

Number of Wheels

Nu

mb

er

of

Wh

eels

China30 Models Planned

Europe25 Models Planned

Launch Markets China to lead from the front followed by Europe and other global regions

Micro-Mobility Market: Hot Spots, Global, 2012–2018

12


ASEAN*

United States

India

Hot Markets

* Association of Southeast Asian Nations

14

Micro-Mobility Market: Models Launch Plans and Roadmap, Global, 2011–2018

Launch TimingAbout 71 models production-ready (from passenger car OEMs and non-passenger car OEMs); Nearly 50 percent of them target short-term market entry

13


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Year

Short-term Launch Midterm Launch Long-term Launch

34

23

14

Model Penetration

OEM Model Key Markets Homologation Type

GM RAKe Europe Sub-A

Renault Twizy Europe Quadricycle

VW Bik.e Asia Bike/Scooter

BMW City Sailor Asia Bike/Scooter

Micro-Mobility Homologation TypeHomologation of global micro-mobility models range from Sub-A, Quadricycles, Bikes/Scooters, Unicycle/Monocycle to even entirely new classification types

Micro-Mobility Market: Key Models Launch Markets, Timing, Prices, and Homologation, Global, 2011–2018

14

BMW City Sailor Asia Bike/Scooter

Fiat Mio FC III Europe Sub-A

Peugeot E-Vivacity Europe Bike/Scooter

Honda u3-x AsiaUnicycle/Monocycle (New

Classification)

Toyota Winglet Asia TBA (New Classification)

Nissan Pivo3 Asia Quadricycle

TBA – To be Announced Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Level of Intelligence in the SystemSteering wheels have been the primary focus of interest among European and North American passenger car OEMs while Asian passenger car OEMs are interested in Joysticks over handlebars or steering wheel

Micro-Mobility Market: Percent of Key Passenger Car OEMs Models by Steering Type, Global, 2011

15

TBA—To be announced for steering type Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

Level of Technology in the SystemTen out of 16 passenger car OEMs have announced foldable models; North American passenger car OEMs have no foldable models.

Micro-Mobility Market: Key Passenger Car OEMs by Model Foldability, Global, 2011–2018

16

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.TBA—To be announced for Foldability

Mobility Tracker Consumer Research StudyFindings from the consumer research where approximately 28,000 participants interviewed in 23 cities globally indicate key four solutions targeted for improved speed of commute over individual car transport.

Solution Considered Usage Reasons for Acceptance Top Mode to be replace Top Occasion Top Cities

Motorized Mover

Motorized Chair

42.0%

39.0%

1. Environmentally

friendly (20.0%)2. Improves Speed

(14.0%)3. Economic (14.0%)

1. Walking (59.0%)2. Individual (53.0%)3. Public (33.0%)

1. To a store2. To work3. Entertainment

or leisure

1. Jakarta

2. Shanghai3. Beijing4. New Delhi5. Mexico City

1. Environmentally friendly (24.0%)

2. Economic (15.0%)

3. Convenient (12.0%)

1. Individual (64.0%)2. Walking (48.0%)3. Public (35.0%)

1. To work2. To a store3. Entertainment

or leisure

1. Shanghai2. Beijing3. Jakarta4. New Delhi

Micro-Mobility Market: Mobility Tracker Consumer Research Study—Key Facts, Global, 2011

17

Chair

Covered Two Wheeler

Compact EVs

49.0%

52.0%

3. Convenient (12.0%) or leisure


2. Economic (17.0%)3. Convenient (13.0%)

1. Individual (71.0%)2. Walking (35.0%)3. Public (42.0%)

1. To work2. To a store3. Entertainment or leisure


2. Economic (22.0%)3. Convenient (11.0%)

1. Individual (74.0%)2. Public (42.0%)3. Walking (29.0%)

1. To work2. To a store3. To see friendsor family

4. New Delhi

5. Rio

1. Jakarta2. Shanghai3. Beijing4. Rio5. Mexico City

1. Jakarta2. Shanghai3. Beijing4. Mexico City5. New Delhi

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.Important takeaway facts from the tracker research

1By 2018, more than 50 models by key global mainstream OEMs are expected to enter

production and a majority of these vehicles are targeted at short-distance commutes.

55 percent models (by volume) and from global mainstream OEMs are expected to be

Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

18


255 percent models (by volume) and from global mainstream OEMs are expected to be

open-top models, with European OEMs alone expected to account for nearly 70 of

these open-top models.

3Initial level findings indicate that two-wheeled micro-mobility models account for nearly

40 percent of sales volumes and three-wheeled models to account for another 35

percent by 2018 among key mainstream vehicle OEMs.

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For Additional Information

Vishwas Shankar

Industry Analyst


+91 44 6681 4255

[email protected]

Katja FeickCorporate Communications


+49 (0) 69 [email protected]

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Partner

Global A&T

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