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Santos’ Brownfields Opportunity in meeting Asian Energy Demand
Joe Ariyaratnam
General Manager WA & NT
Darwin LNG
2 | Strzelecki Desert
3 | Discovery crew on rig floor of Gidgealpa-2, 31 December 1963
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Asia Pacific LNG demand Large opportunity exists to supply into Asia Pacific
Source: Wood Mackenzie, LNG tool 2015 Q2 dataset, supply represents contracted volumes sold into Asia Pacific from global operating and under construction projects. Typical LNG train size 4 mtpa.
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Mtpa
130mtpa
205mtpa
Contracted Asia Pacific LNG supply
305mtpa
2015 2020 2025 20352030
Asia Pacific represents over 75% of global LNG demand
− demand grows at 4% p.a. from 2014
− over 63% of global LNG demand growth from the region
Large opportunity for new LNG supply
− ~ 32 new LNG trains by 2025
− ~ 76 new LNG trains by 2035
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Asia Pacific LNG demand However, there will be competition from existing uncommitted supply
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG tool, 2015 Q2 dataset, contracted supply represents contracted volumes sold into Asia Pacific from global operating and under construction projects, uncontracted Pacific supply represents uncontracted volumes from operational and under construction LNG projects in the Pacific Basin, flexible Qatari volumes include uncontracted volumes from Qatar, portfolio volumes from Qatar Petroleum and contracted volumes Qatar to US, flexible US volumes from operational and under construction US LNG projects include uncontracted volumes and volumes contracted to portfolio players.
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Mtpa
Contracted Asia Pacific LNG supply
Flexible US LNG supply
2015 2020 2025 20352030
Source: Wood Mackenzie, LNG tool, supply data as per previous slide6 |
Mtpa
2015 2020 2025 20352030
Asia Pacific LNG demand And, demand forecasts have been consistently revised down over the last three quarters
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Asia Pacific Historical LNG Demand Forecasts
2014 Q3 LNG Demand Forecast 2014 Q4 LNG Demand Forecast 2015 Q1 LNG Demand Forecast 2015 Q2 LNG Demand Forecast
Contracted Asia Pacific LNG supply
Flexible US LNG supply
Pluto
PNG LNG
RL 3Qatargas-1Qatargas-4
RasGas I
Darwin
Atlantic LNG 4Atlantic LNG 2&3
QCLNG
Yamal LNG
Gorgon
Wheatstone LNGIchthys
APLNG
GLNG
Prelude FLNG
5 Mtpa
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LNG Plant CAPEX
Brownfields solution Santos brownfield expansions are competitive
SOURCE: WOOD MACKENZIE LNG TOOL, 2015 Q2 DATASET; TOTAL PLANT CAPEX OVER NOMINAL PLANT CAPACITY PLOTTED AGAINST PROJECT START-UPYEAR. US LNG PROJECTS INCLUDE SABINE PASS T1-4, CAMERON LNG, COVE POINT, FREEPORT AND CORPUS CHRISTI. EAST AFRICAN, CANADIAN AND
RUSSIAN PROJECTS INCLUDE MOZAMBIQUE LNG, TANZANIA LNG, KITIMAT LNG, LNG CANADA, PACIFIC NORTHWEST LNG (CONDITIONALLY APPROVED).7 |
Operational LNG Plants
Under Construction LNG Projects
2017
US$/tonne (2015$)
Sanctioned US LNG Projects
Planned Canadian / East African Greenfield LNG Projects
Overview: Northern Australia
Strong discovered resource base to support Darwin brownfield development
8 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015
Darwin LNG
9 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015Bayu-Undan WP-1 wellhead platform jacket, being towed to location
Browse
10 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015Lasseter discovery, Browse Basin
Petrel Tern Frigate
11 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015
Insert Photo.
Petrel 7 appraisal well, Bonaparte Basin
Barossa Caldita
12 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015Well test, Barossa appraisal, Timor Sea
Operator with 30% equity, 7.8 mtpa plant
capacity
Commissioning on track
First LNG expected around end Q3 2015,
within budget
Leveraging existing and new LNG infrastructure and capabilities
Santos’ LNG portfolio
13.5% equity, 6.9 mtpa plant capacity
Producing above nameplate capacity
First LNG in 2014, 118 cargoes to date
Debottlenecking and expansion opportunities
11.5% equity, 3.7 mtpa plant capacity
Producing ahead of expectations
First LNG in 2006, 488 cargoes delivered
Expansion and backfill opportunities
Pro
duci
ng
Under
const
ruct
ion
Darwin LNG
PNG LNG
GLNG174
448
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1H 2014 1H 2015
A$million
Santos’ LNG portfolio has grown
Over 30% of Santos’ production will be LNG by 2016
50% of production sold to Asian markets by 2016
─ Portfolio leveraged to Asian energy demand
─ Revenue leverage to Asian energy prices
LNG will represent more than a third of Santos’ production portfolio
*Includes Santos Portfolio to GLNG
Disclaimer andimportant notice
This presentation contains forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with the oil and gas industry. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, but they may be affected by a range of variables which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to: price fluctuations, actual demand, currency fluctuations, geotechnical factors, drilling and production results, gas commercialisation, development progress, operating results, engineering estimates, reserve estimates, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, economic and financial markets conditions in various countries, approvals and cost estimates.
All references to dollars, cents or $ in this document are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated. All references to project completion percentages are on a value of work done basis, unless otherwise stated.
15 | SEAAOC, AUGUST 2015
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