Introducing Theories of Change

Michael Drinkwater, PIKL

Asia Program Quality Group Meeting

Hanoi, March 2009

A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift

It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our work, about what it should be about, and about the scope and scale we need to reach. Projects – and even related sequences of projects – are an answer to the question, “What can CARE do?” (even if there are contractual partnerships within the project). Programs – when crafted correctly – respond to a different question: “What is the change in society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?”

A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift - 2 A program is more about CARE

articulating a picture and vision of social change – one of course in line with government and MDG strategies – that moves others to join forces with us (and us with them) to achieve something far beyond our sole ability to accomplish.

It is about being both more AMBITIOUS and more REALISTIC than we are conventionally when working in projects.

Definition of a Program

A program is a coherent set of initiatives by CARE and our allies that involves a long term commitment to specific marginalized and vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and social injustice.

This goes beyond the scope of projects to achieve positive changes in human conditions, in social positions and in the enabling environment.

8 Characteristics of a Program

1. A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale.

2. A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty, gender inequality, and social injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders.

3. An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning.

4. A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change.

5. Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of impact.

6. Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and strengthening of partners, networks and alliances.

7. A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale.

8. Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders that are transparent.

How are new programs different?

Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their project portfolios into programs, that this is not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors now become programs)

Importance of starting with clear identification of impact populations

Distinction between impact population, target group and stakeholders

Components of Program Design

(5) PROGRAM STRATEGY

Coherent set of initiativeswith clearly articulated

strategies for achieving the outcomes

With and By Whom

E.g. Allies,

strategic partners, and other

stake-holders

(3) SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS (Context, UCP, gender, power analysis)

(1) IMPACT GROUP + DESCRIPTION

(2) LONG-TERM IMPACT GOAL

(4) THEORY OF CHANGE

CAUSAL PATH

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

Year 1

ASSUMPTIONS+

RISKS

(6) LEARNING ANDIMPACT

MEASUREMENTSYSTEM

Year 15

Hypothesis“if-Then”

Hypothesis“if-Then”

Male and female youth living with HIV/AIDS

Impact Group

Youth urban daily laborers

Unemployed youth (addicted)

Urban Unemployed youth

Rural-urban migrant CSWs

ACSI

Chat ‘Bet’/houses

Ønp?

Women Association

Youth Association

Micro enterprises

MunicipalityPA

CBOS (Target + Stakeholders)

Microfinance institutions

Private sector (Industrialists)

BOLSA

Like-minded LNGOS

Micro Finance Inst.

Brokers

Community at transit Woreda?

MSE?Police

Education Office

Bureau of Youth & Sports

Health Bureau

Hotel owners & house renters

Youth associations, Women associations, Kebele Administration

Schools community

Urban youth parents

Resource poor youth in urban and peri- urban areas vulnerable to HIV & AIDS

Key:Blue – (Sub) Impact groups Yellow – Stakeholders Purple – Target groups

Impact, Target, Sub Groups and Stakeholders

Long Term Impact Goal

This is a 10-15 year ambition, and specifies the kind of enduring impact we would like to see being achieved in the lives of the impact population group, at broad scale

When we start to build our strategy, the idea is that we should be both ambitious and realistic

Why Theories of Change? Social change is a messy, complex

affair, rather than a predictable, linear process

But while social change is complex and incoherent, it is not unintelligible

We have to be adaptive, iterative and non-linear – we have to seize opportunities and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

Theory of Change: Working Definition

A set of hypotheses and critical A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that make up a assumptions that make up a causal causal pathway of changepathway of change which is the basis of which is the basis of the program design.the program design.

Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements between different levels of the change between different levels of the change pathwaypathway

CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact GroupsGroups

Theory of Change - 2Theory of Change - 2

THEORY OF CHANGE

ASSUMP-TIONS + RISK S

Y ear 1

Y ear 15

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

Hypothesis“if-then”

Hypothesis“if-then”

CAUSAL PATH

Change Pathways, and their Assumptions

A path of change is like a road map – but one where we have an idea of the destination, but will have to experiment to find an effective route of getting there

The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical because it is based on assumptions

It gives us a hypothetical answer to the question: what is the change we are working for and what needs (beliefs, activities, approaches) to happen for the change to come about?

It serves as a planning and reflection tool and It serves as a planning and reflection tool and should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re-the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re-examining the pace of change)examining the pace of change)

Domains of Change

Are areas in which change is essentialAre areas in which change is essential to to achieving an impact goal.achieving an impact goal.

A goal may have 2-4 domains of changeA goal may have 2-4 domains of change A domain of change may be:A domain of change may be:

a relationship between groups of people a relationship between groups of people behavior and/or structural change in a system or behavior and/or structural change in a system or

institutionsinstitutions Laws and policies related to a specific issueLaws and policies related to a specific issue

Represent all three outcome areas of the Represent all three outcome areas of the Unifying FrameworkUnifying Framework

Breakthrough

A change that represents a leap A change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway forward or an advance on the pathway of change that is not easily reversed. of change that is not easily reversed.

In its most important form, it is a In its most important form, it is a structural or systemic change. On a structural or systemic change. On a smaller scale, it can be something that smaller scale, it can be something that happens for the first timehappens for the first time

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 1

Narrative FormThe most socially economically, politically marginalized women will be empowered by women’s greater exercise of choice in decision affecting their lives at all levels and reduced violence against women and girls. This, accompanied by a strong social movement built on women’s solidarity and participation of men, will have a multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision

Desired Long-term Goal(related to population impact group)

Domain of change Domain of Change Domain of Change

Breakthrough

Breakthrough

Current Situation, including underlying causes/barriers to change1

2

3

4

6

7

Pathways of change

Indicators related to breakthroughs, domains, and long-term goal

Assumptions and Risks

5 Stakeholders

Power Within: Theory of Change

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 2

CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most Socially,

Economically and Politically Marginalized Women

Women will be empowered by:

Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives

Reduced violence against women

Strong Social movements built on women's solidarity and participation of men

+ X

Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 3 The “+” sign signifies that the two domains are not necessarily

inter-dependent but mutually supportive. The intent is to see a positive trendline in both, with one reinforcing the other.

The strong social movements is a multiplier on the achievements of the two domains of change. Social movements will sustain and carry forward those achievements and will scale up the impact at national level. It is not enough for CARE Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few women; it must think about the next generation.

The multiplier effect is also present in the pressure for structural change upon the institutions and norms that survive the cycles of repressive governments with the potential to help temper an unstable political environment.

Finally, our SII research has shown us that solidarity building is crucial for women’s empowerment.

Theories of Change: Summary

A Theory of Change consists of a number of domains of change linked together in an hypothesis to achieve the impact goal

It has also a set of change pathways, with identified breakthrough areas

Together, the domains of change + the pathways provide a plausible set of hypotheses and assumptions to address the major underlying causes/ barriers

It need not be complex, but it must be logical and coherent

From Theory of Change to Program Strategy

In starting to develop the program strategy from the TOC, we move from nouns (in the change pathways) to verbs, from the things we wish to achieve to the activities and actions needed to achieve them

In this, we need to weigh up risk carefully We start by look for the opportunities we

can use as entry points to start the process And remember WE CANNOT DO THIS

ALONE

Methodology for Consultancy

Understand analysis, impact population and impact goal

Identify key program themes Construct pathways Identify breakthroughs Consolidate domains of change Identify stakeholders, key

assumptions, and potential core impact indicators