HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING IN CHANGING CONTEXT PRESENTEDBY:SWATI NIGAM

The HR Planning Process

1.Situation analysis or Enviromental Scanning

2.Forecasting Demand for human Resources

3.Analysis of the supply of human resources.

4.Development of plans for action.

Situation Analysis and Enviromental Scanning

The first stage of HR planning is the point at which HRM and strategic planning initially interact.

The strategic plan must adapt to enviromental circumstances,and HRM is one of the primary mechanisms that an organization can use during the adaptation process.

For example,rapid technological changes in theenviroment can force an organization to quikly identify and hire employees with new skills that previously weren’t needed by the organization.

Forecasting Demand for Employees

The next phase of an effective HR planning process is estimating not only how many but also what kinds of employees will be needed.

Forecasting yields advance estimates or calculation’s of the organization’s staffing requirements.

Although many quantitative tools can help in forecasting,it involves a great deal of human judgement.

The Expert Estimates

The least mathematically sophisticated approach to employement forecasting is for an “expert” or group of experts to provide the organization with demand estimates based on expierience,guesses,intuation,and subjective assesments of availabl economic and labor force indicators.

Concerns over a single individual’s ability to provide accurate estimates of such complex issues led to the development of the dElphi Technique.

Nominal Group Technique

Another group-based judgement forecasting method is called the nominal group technique(NGT).

Individual generation of estimates is followed by group brainstorming sessions in the hope of generating one group decision that is preferred over any of the individual decisions.

NGT can be an effective forecasting tool for enviroments and problems more complex than an individual can master.

Trend Projection

The second top down technique develops a forecast based on a past relationship between a factor related to employment and employment itself.

For example,in many businesses ,sales levels are related to employment needs.The planner can develop a table or graph showing a past relationship between sales and employment.

Modelling and Multiple –Predictive Techniques Analytical formula such as regression

analysis. Markov Chain Analysis The more advanced approaches relate

many factors to employment such as sales,gross national product,and discretional income.Or they mathematically model the organization and use simulations with methods such as Markov models and analytical formulations such as regression analysis.

The use of the Markov chain analysis involves developing a matrix to show the probability of an employee’s moving from one position to another or leaving the organization.

Markov analysis begins with an analysis of staffing levels from one period to another.Suppose that proffesional nursing employees have shifted from hospital I,II,and III in the Houston Medical Center Complex.That is ,they quit working in one hospital and went to work for another in the medical center.

An HR specialist in hospital I is interested in analysing the human resource shifts that are occuring between her hospital and hospitals II and III.

Exhibit 5-4 illustrates the movement of nurses.

PROBABILITIES OF TRANSITION

2003200500300

NURSES LOST405045

Nurses Retained160450255

PROBABILTY OF RETENTION160/200=.80450/500=.90255/300=.85

The data in Exhibit 5-5 indicate that hospital I has a probability of .80 of reatining its nurses,while hospital II has a probabilty of .90 and hospital III has a probability of .85.Both hospitals II and III have a higher probabilty of retaining their nursing staff.Therefore,,the HR specialist in Hospital I needs to study further the issue why her hospital has lower probabilty of lower retention .Is this because of some HRM program ?

Markov analysis can help identify the probabilty of lower retention,but it does not suggest any particular solution to the potential problem.

Regression analysis is a mathematical procedure that predicts the dependent variable on the basis of knowledge of factors

Known as independent variables.When only one dependent variable on the basis of knowledge of factors known as independent variables.

When only one dependent and one independent variable are studied ,the process is known as simple linear regression.

Regression analysis is a mathematical procedure that predicts the dependent variable on the basis of knowledge of factors

Known as independent variables.When only one dependent variable on the basis of knowledge of factors known as independent variables.

When only one dependent and one independent variable are studied ,the process is known as simple linear regression.

When there is more than one independent variable being considered,the technique is referred to as multiple regression.

Unit Demand Forecasting

The unit(which can be an entire department,a project team,or some other group of employees)forecast is a bottom-up approach to forecasting demand.Headquarters sums these unit forecasts,and the result becomes the employment forecast.The unit manager analyzes the person by person,job by job needs in the present as well as the future.

In larger organizations,an HR executive at headquarters who is responsible for the employment forecast will improve the forecast will improve the estimates by checking with the managers in the field.If the units forecasts their own needs,the HR executive would sum sum their estimates to arrive at the forecast.

Human Resource Supply estimates The third phase of HR planning is

designed to answer the question,”How many and what kinds of employees do I currently have in terms of the skills and training necessary for the future?”

The Skills Inventory

The major tool used to asses the current supply of employees is the skills inventory.

In some organizations,there will be also a separate inventory just for the managers called a management inventory.

Both of these serve the same purpose:to note what kind of skills,abilities,expieriences,and training of employees currently have.By keeping track of these, the organizations can quikly determine whether a particular skill is available when it is needed.

Skills inventories are also useful in career planning ,management development,and related activities.

A skills inventory are also useful in career planning,management development and related activities.

A skills inventory is the simplest form is list of names,characteristics and skills of the people working in the organization.

Contents of the skill Inventory The list of data might be

coded into skills inventories is almost endless,it must be tailored to the needs of the organization.

Some of the more common items include name,employee number,present location,date of birth,date of employment,job clasification,specific skills and knowledge,education,field of education(formal education and courses

taken since leaving school),knowledge of a foreign language,personal qualifications,publications,licenses,patents,hobbies,a supervisory evaluation of the employees capabilities,and salary range.

Maintaining the Skill Inventory While designing the system is the most

difficult part of developing a skills inventory,planning for the gathering,maintaining,handling,and updating of the data is also important.

The two principal methods for gathering the data are the interview and the questionnaire. The questionnaire is faster and less expensive when many employees are involved, but inaccuracies often prevail. People often do not spend enough time on a questionnaire.

Actions Decisions in Human Resource Planning After the HR planning system has

analysed both the supply of the demand for future workers,these two forecasts are compared to determine what,if any,action should be taken.Whenever thee is dicrepency between two estimates,the organization needs to choose a couse of action to eliminate the gap.

Action decisions with a shortage of employees

When employment specialists comparing demand with supply find that the supply of workers is less than the demand, several possibilities are open to the organization. If the shortage is small and employees are willing to work overtime, it can be filled with present

employees.If there is a shortage of highly skilled employees,training and promotions of present employees,together with the recruitment of less skilled employees,are possibilities,are possibilities.

Intense global competition, rapid technological change, and fears caused by recent workforce reductions have also led many organizations to increase their use of part time workers,sub contractors and independent professionals in response to the changing demands.

Action Decision in Surplus conditions When comparision of demand for

and supply of employees indicates asurplus,the alternative solutions include attrition,early retirements,demotions,layoffs,and terminations.

A shortage of raw material such as fuel or a poorly marketed product can cause an organization to surplus of employees.

As a first approach to dealing with surplus,most organizations avoid layoffs by relying on atrrition,early retirement,and creation of work,and the like.

Simplest method of reduction of work force is

Early retirement of the employees and attrition .

Attrition is leaving the organization. Sometimes this approach is

accelarated by encouraging employees close to retirement to leave early,but there are drawbacks to this approach if the early retirement plan is not carefully planned.

Also,large amount of retirements are expected to lead to skill shortages that will negatively effect companies ability to compete in the global marketplace.