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What you need to know to reach optimal enrollment, effect a turnaround, enhance retention, and launch new programs or campuses. This presentation explores the issues and opportunities.
Citation preview
How much and by when?The essentials of ROI-driven
enrollment marketing
Presented by Tom Abrahamson [email protected]
What we’ll cover today
• The problem• ROI essentials • Case studies • Creating a plan (yes, today)
What is Accelerated Integrated Marketing (AIM)?
• ROI-driven: how much and by when?• Something must get done. Now. Or soon.• Not “business as usual”• AIM layers-on• “Minds the gap”
Where we’ve done “AIM”…
32 institutions of all sizes and types, achieving a vast range of goals:
• New campus and program launches• Repositioning academic quality• Targeted minority student growth• Same year enrollment turnarounds• Graduate and professional program growth
and quality
So, what’s keeping you up at night?
How do you define ROI?
How do you measure ROI?
If you could wave a magic wand and achieve an enrollment goal, what
would that be?
What’s standing in the way?
ROI marketing context
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Non-Public White Black Asian Hispanic American Indian
The Chart
We are here
Tough if you’re in or around “white” states
PA: -13%NY: -8%WV: -8% OH: -5% NJ: -2%MD: -3%
338 colleges and universities
within a 100-mile radius of Philadelphia
533 colleges and universities
within a 200-mile radius of Philadelphia
Competition is fierce
We have a problem
Build-a-Bear GenerationCompetition
Money Worries
Most think we still own the conversation
International students
International students
Adults
International students
Adults
Stop-outs
International students
Adults
Stop-outs
Academic superstars
International students
Adults
Stop-outs
Academic superstars
Under-represented
Respondents
1,012 organizations
participated
101 colleges and
universities
2008 AMA/Lipman Hearne Survey:
Enrollment growth: 50%Experience with program/service: 38%Marketing campaign effectiveness: 35%Brand awareness: 30% Print advertising effectiveness: 17%
Impact of investments not being measured effectively in terms of:
2008 AMA/Lipman Hearne Study
“Half of my advertising budget is wasted. Trouble is, I don’t
know which half.”
David Pottruck
ROI–driven marketing campaigns
ROI Marketing catches students “business as usual marketing” often
misses.
Why do marketing?• To generate new enrollment• To retain students• To avoid decay in market share• To reinforce decisions about the
institution• Oh yes … and to produce XX% of the
revenue
What is expected of marketing? • To get results • To justify every penny spent• To achieve goals in the most effective
manner possible• To use the appropriate marketing
tools among all available
Typical marketing spending models• Percent of sales• Competitive emulation• Containment: selective funding• Correlational analysis: cause and
effect• All you can afford
The marketer’s greatest skill is in defining ROI-type investment
opportunities.
Some important terms• Net Present Value• ROI • Gross margin • Incremental Expenses• Cost of goods sold• Incremental customer value• Discount rate• ROI threshold or hurdle rate
6 STEPS TO AIM
1.Dream big
2.Dive deep
3.Pick your lures
4.Do the math
5.Write the playbook
6.Go fishing
1.Dream Big
Set reach goals
Look beyond today
2.Dive Deep
Segment current students
Examine enrollment trends
Prioritize who you can recruit, retain, or bring back
3.Pick Your Lures
Determine optimal market strategies for each segment (and not just new inputs)
4.Do the Math.
What is the tuition impact?
What will it cost to get them to apply, enroll, and persist?
Is it worth the investment?
ROI =Gross Margin – Marketing Investment
Marketing Investment
The formula :
ROI Tenets• The construct: all marketing expenditures viewed
as investments• Three effects: Direct, Halo, Hawthorne• Measurability: expressed in terms of dollars over a
specified time period• Collateral benefit: there are additional value-added
“returns” incurred beyond revenue (but will not suffice as justification for failure)
An example of an ROI Campaign’s financial model:
• Want to increase by 268 students by fall 2009 • $7,876 tuition per year• All new students will attend under-capacity
programs• Four-year retention rate is 58%
ROI Metrics
Gross tuition per semester generatedby the 268 new students:
268 StudentsX $3,938 per semester
Gross tuition: $1,055,384
ROI Metrics
Investment:
$351,443 in scholarships (33% discount)+ $79,154 in additional staff
+ $527,692 in marketingTotal investment: $958,289
ROI Metrics
Net Revenue:
$1,055,384 (tuition revenue)- $958,289 (total investment)
Net Revenue: $97,095
ROI Metrics
ROI for the first semester:
$97,095 (net revenue)÷ $958,289 (total investment)
First semester ROI: 10.1%
ROI Metrics
Carried out through the first year:
268 first semester students+ 241 second semester students509 total student tuition payments
ROI Metrics
Carried out through the first year:
509 tuition paymentsX $3,938 per semester
$2,005,230 accumulated gross tuition
Budget Item Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four Total
Gross Tuition $2,005,230
Marketing Investments $527,692
Discounts $667,741
Additional Staffing $79,154
Total Investment $1,274,587
Net Revenue $730,642
ROI 57.3%
Carried out over four years assuming 58% four-year retention of the cohort. Additional staffing is for recruitment only, notretention of new students.
Budget Item Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four Total
Gross Tuition $2,005,230 $1,614,738
Marketing Investments $527,692 $0
Discounts $667,741 $532,863
Additional Staffing $79,154 $0
Total Investment $1,274,587 $532,863
Net Revenue $730,642 $1,081,874
ROI 57.3% 203.0%
Year Two
Budget Item Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four Total
Gross Tuition $2,005,230 $1,614,738 $1,372,527
Marketing Investments $527,692 $0 $0
Discounts $667,741 $532,863 $452,934
Additional Staffing $79,154 $0 $0
Total Investment $1,274,587 $532,863 $452,934
Net Revenue $730,642 $1,081,874 $919,593
ROI 57.3% 203.0% 203.0%
Year Three
Budget Item Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four Total
Gross Tuition $2,005,230 $1,614,738 $1,372,527 $1,166,648
Marketing Investments $527,692 $0 $0 $0
Discounts $667,741 $532,863 $452,934 $384,994
Additional Staffing $79,154 $0 $0 $0
Total Investment $1,274,587 $532,863 $452,934 $384,994
Net Revenue $730,642 $1,081,874 $919,593 $781,654
ROI 57.3% 203.0% 203.0% 203.0%
Year Four
Budget Item Year One Year Two Year Three Year Four Total
Gross Tuition $2,005,230 $1,614,738 $1,372,527 $1,166,648 $6,159,143
Marketing Investments $527,692 $0 $0 $0 $527,692
Discounts $667,741 $532,863 $452,934 $384,994 $2,038,532
Additional Staffing $79,154 $0 $0 $0 $79,154
Total Investment $1,274,587 $532,863 $452,934 $384,994 $2,645,378
Net Revenue $730,642 $1,081,874 $919,593 $781,654 $3,513,763
ROI 57.3% 203.0% 203.0% 203.0% 133%
Total ROI Over Four Years
5.Write the Playbook
Prioritize strategies and tactics
High impact
Doable for fall ’09
Measurable
6.Go Fishing
Exact execution
Measure
Refine
Break
Case Study #1 Kettering University
The Perfect Fit
Kettering’s needs
Redefine/establish Kettering in the marketplace
Stop application decline
Be true to the brand
1.Kettering’s “big dream”
goals
Rigor in planning
Conducted focus groups, MPQ
Mapped new areas to target
Focus on “Perfect Fit”
Invested 8 weeks in planning
2.Kettering’s
“Deep Dive”
Micro-targeting
Right fit new suspects (not your great grandfather’s liberal arts college), dormant prospects, ets.
Special interest groups such as FIRST Robotics, Math & Science Consortium Schools
ParentsGraduate studentsReferrers
3.Kettering’s segments
and “lures”
If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.
“Follow the format and fill in the blanks”
Financial models created for eventual net revenue
4.Kettering’s Math
The Playbook
19 strategies developed to make the connection with the elusive “Kettering Type” of student
Avoid a catastrophic drop in Fall ’06 freshmen
5.Kettering’s Playbook
How Kettering managed AIM:
Launch/hooplaInvolved and updated the
community Constant monitoring of
progressCareful documentation of all
changes and adjustmentsConstant tracking of % to
goalCelebrated milestones
6.Working the Plan
“Perfect Fit” Campaign Communications
The “Perfect Fit”student is a bit confident, bordering on cocky
Kettering students are wired differently
Parents needed to know that Kettering is the right fit for their kids
Message platform was consistent and pervasive
Results: New students 2007-09
Projected
Expected
Results: Applications 2007-09
Case Study #2: University of Cincinnati
Every Student Counts
University of Cincinnati in 2003, the challenge:
• “Commuter” school, underappreciated locally
• 4 consecutive years of enrollment decline
• Immediate goal, April 2003: Identify and enroll an additional 1,900 students
• Long-term objective: Multi-phased project to enhance reputation and increase enrollment, pride, fundraising
79
Our response:
• Fall ’03 “Intervention” plan to mobilize the campus: Every Student Counts
• Led a “studied” approach to branding and marketing planning
• New look for publications, advertising (brand and retail)
• ’04 to present: brand advancement, enrollment marketing, strategic PR
Every Student Counts goals:• Reverse 4-year decline• Increase enrollment by 1,900 students over
prior fall• Increase credit hour enrollment by 900 FTE’s• Change business as usual: marketing spending
(ROI) and practices• Do it in 8 months• Make it fun and non-threatening
Developed and implemented playbook• 21 discrete strategies• 80 staff engaged in the campaign• Internal launch and public commitment• 3 FTE additional staff• Lipman Hearne consulted, produced expansive
creative tools
The brand work proceeded
Where it started: 2003
2005
2008
87
ESC Communications
ESC impact• 10,268 phone calls completed• 65,000 emails (prospects and alumni)• 134,396 postcards, personalized letters
created and mailed• 156,005 fact sheets/brochures created and
distributed• 10,323,400 radio, print and internet
impressions
ESC Results• Headcount Goal was 1,901, actual was 1,904 (852
directly attributed to campaign)• FTE goal was 900; actual was 716• Marketing Investment was $522,333• Net revenue for the year without state subsidy =
$4,054,984 ($642K under the net revenue goal of $4.7MM)
• With state subsidy (at $579 per student) and ESC tuition, exceeded the total net revenue was $5.5 MM
Beyond Every Student Counts:
Fall 2003: +1900 students
Fall 2004: + 605 students
Fall 2005: +15% new enrollment; largest class ever
Fall 2006: Best quality class ever
Fall 2007: First ever waitlist, +8% freshmen
Positive revenue throughout
Let’s write a Playbook…
1.Dream big.
What would be an amazing goal to achieve next fall?
2.Dive deep.
Now break it down: Pick a definable segment and
describe it.
3.Pick your lures.
Where will you find them and what tactics will you
employ? What’s your offer?
4.Do the Math.
What data will you interrogate?Calculate the revenue per
student – initially and over time
5.The Playbook.
When will you do it and how will you measure success?
Discussion