Source: Nesta

Source: Nesta

1. Research and analysis- Micro-narratives

- Ethnography- Big data: smoke signals

- Evidence mapping- Horizon scanning- Market intelligence- Systems mapping- Service safaris

2. Ideation and fostering creative thinking- Crowdsourcing

- Challenges- Design tools

- Creativity methods- Open innovation

3. Experiment- Rapid prototyping

- Service and process design- User-design- Co-design

- Behavioural insights- Light-touch evaluation

- Randomised Control Trials- Cost-benefit modelling

4. Business case development- Market sizing and validation

- Business case analysis- Independent replication of

evaluation

5. Replication of impact- Policy design

- Programme design- Business modelling

- Organisational design

6. Scale-up- Organisational growth

- Spreading ideas- Transferring practice

- Legislation- Licensing

- Franchising

7. Systemic impact- Changing behaviour

- Changing laws and regulations- Calibrating markets

- Understanding interaction of technologies

cafe

Bi-weekly meeting

“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed”

- W. Gibson

Horizon Scanning

Scan and Investigate

Connect

Sense-make

Action

Source: @stugreulich

Development Impact Bonds• You have five minutes to find a definition and three experts…

• In a Development Impact Bond, investors provide finance for social interventions in developing countries. The money is channeled to local public and private service providers. Once independently verified evidence shows that results have been achieved, the government and donors repay the investors their principal plus a financial return linked to performance.• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leLZv0I-1nk

Horizon Scanning

Scan and Investigate

Connect

Sense-make

Action

Source: @stugreulich

Horizon Scanning• Quiz time: how quickly can you find…• Think structure:

- Web searches- Social media- Magazines and journals- Webinars- Academics- Roadmaps- Pyramiding

• Lots of data available, but…• Speak to people, go see for yourself, try it…• Find dissonant voices as well as mainstream• Follow up, re-connect, feed your network

Source: @stugreulich

PROMISES

• Creates Anticipatory Awareness

• Challenges organisations and management to think

• Drives innovation, entrepreneurship, social change

• Good strategy for dealing with uncertainty

CHALLENGES

• Too theoretical & abstract• Always methodologically

constrained• Disconnected from real

politik• Disconnected from

operations• People and organisations

are educated to demand certainty?

Promises & Challenges of Foresight

Source: @stugreulich

cafe

Next time… RCTs

Don’t forget to bring some ideas of your own…