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It is remarkable to see how Western Media seem to use different measures when analyzing the High Winds that Blow on their Own Hills vis a vis those that come from Emerging and Frontier Countries...A little reflection using the cases of 2 well-known celebrity ladies with EM background with one of them having moved to the West while the other stayed there...
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HIGH WINDS BLOW ON HIGH HILLS…
WESTERN MEASUREMENT ISSUES IN EMERGING AND FRONTIER MARKETS
General Introduction: Haven’t we seen it all before?
At LMG I feel blessed that I am involved in Emerging and Frontier Markets investments at a time
when it is not only clearer than ever that these countries are catching up, but that things have also
reached the point where the first giant representatives from these countries start to use their cash
to buy distressed assets or firms in our part of the world. Still being raised in what one could call a
post‐colonial tradition, Western observers and governments feel uncomfortable about this.
Governments, firms and leading people from these countries are often more or less automatically
accused of being corrupted or of unfair practices. In this contribution we won’t go all the way to
analyse individual country cases. We also won’t go the black‐whitish way so often practised in
Western media by assuming ‘they are bad and we are good’. Most of us do now agree that a lot of
Western wealth was built just as much on the merits of the Industrial Revolution as it was on robber
behaviour when reaching the shores of overseas countries over the last couple of hundreds of years.
Not ‘trade’ was the common practice of getting our hands on the most attractive goods, services and
production factors, but ‘brute force’ was. And whenever specific regions were left, freed or given
more liberal, autonomous rights there was always a clear linkage with the fact that its main assets
had become less important. Even the Shale Gas revolution and the US retreat from the Middle East
cannot be totally separated.
A couple of years ago we contributed to a seminar in which Transparency International’s Corruption
Perception Index (CPI) was a key topic of discussion. One of the big issues with this CPI Index is that
it takes two to tango. When Western firms are willing to offer their counterparty in a business
transaction (be it governments, firms, bureaucrats, army representatives) some kind of gift it is
automatically not illogical that the relative size of the gift might be small for the donor and big for
the person or entity receiving it due to differences in relative wealth. Obviously that would also
mean, that those entities or persons in Emerging and Frontier countries that are able to extract
more from ‘us’ do by definition enjoy a huge advantage (since they can use/invest that wealth in an
at that moment still relatively poor country). If we add to that the fact that being in a leadership
position in such a poor and relatively unstable country is by definition like being a manager/owner of
a start‐up firm (Singapore’s charismatic founder/leader Lee Kuan Yew has often used similar
comparisons), there is a huge risk premium. The legal and political infrastructure being unstable,
those creating wealth will have to be fully aware of its relative uncertainty. First, it might attract
others from within the country, who want to steal it away (‘crook types’) or it might – in a more
subtle form – attract potential leaders who want to destabilize the system and get their own piece of
the action. So far nothing new for Westerners: our own history was built along these lines. Many of
our ancestors who are now treated as heroes did not achieve their results on the basis of ‘meetings’,
‘conference calls’, ‘democratic voting’ and ‘charity‐like contributions’. Most of the time they
achieved it due to a) wars they won; b) enemies that were killed; c) revolutions and things like that.
But nonetheless, winners take it all and ex‐post those winners are often made ‘heroes of our past’.
So in a way, we often play disgust about things we see NOW in Emerging and Frontier Markets,
whereas those things were often ‘standard practice’ in our own, OFTEN NOT‐TOO‐RECENT past.
From the country/entity to the people level
These measurement issues do also play an important role when looking at the treatment of visible,
leading people in the countries. In the Western world we often assume that our systems are well‐
organized, governance (almost) perfect so that – whenever something goes terribly wrong (internal
fraud, corruption, excess bonuses) we see the government declaring that ‘this kind of misconduct
will be penalized severely’. But after a couple of months or even years ‘studying on the case’ not so
much happens and the severe penalty is of a level that would be considered ‘being locked in a hotel
for some limited period of time by emerging markets standards’. A couple of days ago we wrote a
little column in which we agreed with Nassim Nicholas Taleb that lack of proper punishment would –
from a risk perspective – attract this kind of white collar crime whenever there are information
asymmetries between the managers/leaders and the public at large/consumers. Taleb even referred
to old Hammurabian laws in Mesopotamia in which architects or construction firm owners got the
death penalty whenever clients who bought a house from them would get killed due to
malconstruction of the house. A simple way to make those who have an information advantage
think twice before using it. Of course it is also a bit black‐whitish and simple (and Taleb is not
suggesting to introduce this law in modern times to fight excess risk taking in the financial services
sector), but then again: point taken.
In Emerging countries the level of complexity of products and the economy is less, but so is the legal
and governance infrastructure. That will imply that the potential for misuse and abuse is more or
less similar albeit that a lot of crime/fraud/robbery will be less white‐collar and more brutal; but still:
the concept is the same or at least similar enough to not warrant a blunt ‘they versus us, the good
people’ kind of approach/treatment in Western media.
With modern media being so much into stories about the ‘person behind a well‐known leader or
celebrity’ we have the possibility to create huge empirical databases of real‐life cases that enable us
to see how different treatment between ‘Western’ and ‘Emerging’ country cases is, even when
situations are upfront not that different.
The last couple of weeks I had a chance to see this happen, albeit from a distance: the case of two
ladies – celebrities in their own right – but also daughters of a leader and former leader (person in a
leadership position). One is Maxima, now Princess in the Netherlands, and daughter of Jorge
Zorreguieta (former Minister of Agriculture in Argentina at the time of the Videla military junta).
Maxima Zorreguita (From Emerging to Developed Markets treatment)
The other is ‘Googoosha’ (artist name of Gulnara Karimova), daughter of Uzbekistan leader Islam
Karimov. Based on what I wrote above, I will not even start discussions about the respective
‘daddies’. What worries me is the treatment of things.
Googoosha: Pffff…..EM treatment ‘to the max’
Both are remarkable ladies with clearly talents of their own. One – Maxima ‐ developed into the
MsCharming of the Dutch royal family, albeit a foreigner and daughter of a father with questionable
background; and the other – Googoosha ‐ has shown creative skills that can definitely not be defined
away as totally related to her background. Gulnara Karimova has a Master of Arts degree from
Harvard and ah well: with that degree one can assume that you end up having creative skills, right?
Of course it helps to be well‐off in whatever one does in life, but sooner or later one has to perform
him‐ or herself. Gulnara’s work in Fashion and Jewellery Design and her recent CD (pop music with
R&B, soul and dance flavours mixed in a blend that does not forsake her Central Asian background
completely) deserve attention. Just like Maxima deserves attention for her own qualities when
representing the Dutch Royal Family on charity, diplomatic, business or other type of trips.
Is this what we get in practice? Nope: Maxima is well‐protected against nasty feedback (to the
extent that it is there!) related to alleged accusations of her father and it almost seems as if daddy is
getting away with things in Argentina because of the powerful now Western tentacles of daughter’s
network through the Dutch Royal connections. The other way round: whenever Gulnara does
something or shows up somewhere nothing seems to be about her, but everything seems to be
about daddy, the regime etc etc. Isn’t that a strange difference? Yep it is.
On the one hand, she is not afraid of confrontations and runs a Twitter account where one can
literally end up interacting directly (we tested it and know that it works; try that with the Dutch
Royal family!), and on the other she shows her guts by not deleting negative remarks or one‐liners
that have nothing to do with her or what she does. Respect for that.
Of course a lot of people might argue that this is all a matter of differences in level of crime. But no
one is guilty until proven so. And that holds definitely when the bulk of what is shouted around is
related to what someone else in the family allegedly did.
In the meantime: let us treat people, firms, governments on the basis of an objective evaluation of
all facts while at the same time taking into account that Emerging countries are now there, where
we were ages ago but without colonial opportunities. Some humbleness is warranted. And while
being humble and trying to find out if I went ‘too far’ with this ‘risky’ piece (I am sure many Western
people feel I did) a lot of Western critics might like to do some self‐retrospection. Ah well: and why
not listen to Googoosha’s CD or watch Maxima on You Tube in the meantime, so as to finally start
judging them on the basis of what they do.
I am sure that people will start referring me to all those online sources telling one big tale about
corruption etc that can be directly linked back to Googoosha. Of course we saw it all, and of course
we did not investigate things much deeper than any professional investment analyst specializing in
Emerging Markets could or would during a due diligence phase. However: first of all a lot of those
stories are related to Western firms complaining (see also what we wrote above about our
presentation at the Transparency seminar) and/or to sources that are only supposedly more reliable
because they are ‘Western’. For your information: when studying Emerging Markets we always start
with US sources, Russia Today and Al Jazeera to have some kind of common denominator that is
grey instead of black, white or whatever other colour. Applying that principle here, we are not (yet!)
that impressed.
Talented people from Emerging Markets, be they 100‐percent self‐made or related to whoever, will
continue to grow, just like their countries and we should try to benefit from it and enjoy. Not
polarizing things by defining everything from within Emerging Markets as ‘definitely bad, illegal or
unfair’ and all things from our part of the world as ‘fair, sound, ethical and good’.
© Erik L van Dijk, LMG Emerge 2013